【12月22日英国三季度GDP支出细项几无修正，2026年有望向好】12月22日，英国国家统计局公布数 据，第三季度GDP支出细项几乎未修正。潘森宏观分析师分析，三季度增长结构比二季度更均衡，二季 度产出增长主要靠政府支出大幅上升驱动。 展望2026年，因政府搁置原定个人所得税上调计划，消费 者信心改善，有力支撑居民消费支出。财政预算案落定后，GDP增速或在一季度加快。 这一趋势会提 振劳动力需求，缓解市场对就业市场放缓的担忧。在通胀仍处高位时，消费者能降低储蓄率维持支出， 支撑持续复苏。 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 12.22 17:51:15 周一 扫码查看原文 英国经济:2026年Q1增速或加快,消 费专撑复苏 【12月22日英国三季度GDP支出细项几无修正, 2026年有望向好】12月22日,英国国家统计局公布 数据,第三季度GDP支出细项几乎未修正。潘森宏 观分析师分析,三季度增长结构比二季度更均衡, 二季度产出增长主要靠政府支出大幅上升驱动。展 望2026年,因政府搁置原定个人所得税上调计划, 消费者信心改善,有力支撑居民消费 ...

不过，CBI首席经济学家路易丝·赫勒姆强调，当前前景仅为"谨慎乐观"。她指出，最新预算案"更注重 稳定而非增长"，未提供持久的投资激励。在通胀方面，CBI预计2026年消费者物价指数（CPI）将上涨 2.6%，略高于英国央行此前预测。基于此，该机构认为英国央行降息空间有限，预计仅在"下周"和2026 年初各降息25个基点，将基准利率由当前4%降至3.5%。这一判断较市场普遍预期更为紧缩。 制造业内部，13个子行业中6个实现增长。运输设备制造业环比增长3.6%，其中机动车辆产出增长 9.5%；机械制造业增长4.4%；其他制造业和维修业增长2.8%。尽管出现反弹，制造业产出环比增幅仅 为0.5%，低于市场预期的1.0%；同比仍下降0.8%，亦差于预期的下降0.1%。 建筑业延续扩张趋势，但动能明显减弱。10月建筑业产出同比增长0.9%，低于前值1.3%和市场预期的 1.6%，为1月以来最慢增速。环比方面，建筑业产出下降0.6%，逆转9月0.2%的增幅。其中，新建工程 环比下降0.7%，维修保养活动下降0.6%。截至10月的三个月内，建筑业总产出微降0.3%。 虽然经济数据疲弱，英国主要商业游说团体——英国工业联盟 ...

英国经济在10月份再次令人失望，连续第四个月出现萎缩，因经济活动在财政大臣蕾切尔·里夫斯发布 秋季预算前有所减弱。 英国国家统计局办公室公布，10月国内生产总值下降0.1%，上月亦下降0.1%。彭博调查的经济学家此 前预期的经济增速为0.1%。 10月，服务业下滑0.3%，建筑业下滑0.6%，被工业生产1.1%的反弹所部分抵消。 数据公布后，英镑兑美元小幅走低，一度下跌0.1%至1.3381。交易员略微增加了对英国央行明年降息的 押注。 GDP数据是一系列数据中的第一个，这些数据为英国央行12月18日本年度最后一次会议奠定了基础。决 策者们将在做出降息决定之前的几天里获得新的就业和通胀数据。 该报告表明，英国经济进入最后一个季度时仍处于低迷状态，难以重拾上半年的增长势头，当时英国的 经济增速超过了七国集团中的其他所有国家。 在过去七个月的月度数据中，英国GDP仅有一次实现增长。 外界猜测里夫斯可能不得不提高税收，这给占经济总量约60%的家庭带来了沉重压力。由于消费者在预 算案公布前缩减开支，10月零售降幅超出预期。 尽管里夫斯没有提高所得税税率，而是选择延长税阶冻结，但不断上升的失业率和逐渐减弱的实际工资 增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is betting that the Bank of England will maintain a 4% base interest rate for the remainder of the year, driven by rising inflation and resilient economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows that the UK's GDP grew by 0.3% in Q2, surpassing economists' expectations of 0.1% and the Bank of England's own forecasts [2] - The labor market is also performing strongly, with multiple indicators exceeding analysts' prior expectations, reinforcing the resilience of the economic fundamentals [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the shift in policy expectations, the British pound has appreciated by 2.5% against the US dollar this month, making it the best-performing currency among the G10 [2] - Analysts attribute the pound's strength to the Bank of England's quicker end to the rate-cutting cycle compared to other major central banks, creating a favorable interest rate differential [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming key data, including the July inflation report and preliminary Q3 GDP figures, which will inform the Bank of England's policy direction [2] - Most institutions expect the Bank of England to likely keep interest rates unchanged in the September meeting while assessing whether inflation will exert sustained upward pressure [2]

Core Viewpoint - The UK economy showed signs of slowing growth in Q2, with GDP growth at 1.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 1.3% in Q1, but still above market expectations of 1% [1] Economic Performance - In June, UK GDP grew by 1.4% year-on-year, the highest since February, surpassing expectations of 1.1% and revised from a previous value of 0.7% to 0.9% [1] - The quarterly GDP growth for Q2 was 0.3%, indicating a modest recovery [1] - The service sector was a key driver, with output increasing by 0.3%, while industrial production rose by 0.7% and construction output grew by 0.3% [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Economists from Santander and Berenberg suggest that the Bank of England may maintain the base interest rate at 4.0% for the remainder of 2025, given the better-than-expected economic data and anticipated inflation rise [1][2] - However, there are differing views in the market regarding the sustainability of UK economic growth, with some expecting a rate cut in December [2] Concerns on Growth Sustainability - Private consumption was weaker than expected, and business investment saw a significant decline, indicating insufficient internal growth momentum [2] - The strong performance in Q2 was primarily supported by government spending and net exports, which may not be sustainable in the long term [2] - Key components such as household consumption and business investment were notably weaker compared to Q1, raising concerns about future growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is likely to face further downward pressure due to weak GDP data released on Friday, indicating economic contraction in May [1] Economic Data - UK GDP unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% in May, highlighting downside risks to economic growth [1] - The weak economic performance has strengthened market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England in August, unless June inflation data shows unexpected improvement [1] Inflation and Market Sentiment - Stable inflation may provide some short-term support for the pound; however, medium-term outlook remains bleak due to fiscal tightening and weak labor market data [1] - Monthly GDP contraction further suggests that the pound will continue to face sustained pressure [1]

Core Insights - The UK economy experienced a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.7% in the first quarter [1] Economic Performance - The growth rate of 0.7% indicates a positive trend in the UK economy, suggesting resilience amidst potential challenges [1]

Group 1 - The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter, matching expectations for the same growth rate [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - HSBC reported that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in Q1, exceeding expectations, but may face a downturn due to global uncertainties [3] - The growth was supported by strong investment driven by one-off expenditures, but potential declines in trade are anticipated in Q2 [3] - Rising utility costs and increases in wage taxes and minimum wage are expected to impact corporate labor costs [3] Group 2: Currency and Market Reactions - The GBP's reaction to improved UK economic growth data has been muted, indicating cautious interpretation by investors [3] - Despite a 0.7% growth in Q1 following a 0.1% increase in the previous quarter, the growth was driven by unstable corporate investment factors [3] - The Bank of England is likely to interpret the economic slowdown risks as a reason to proceed with gradual interest rate cuts [3] Group 3: Gold Futures Analysis - Gold futures prices have ended a six-day decline, currently reported at 752.74 CNY per gram, with a 1.01% increase [4] - The highest price reached today was 759.20 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 746.44 CNY per gram [4] - Resistance levels for gold are identified between 819-829 CNY, with support levels at 712-722 CNY [4]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound reacted cautiously to improved UK GDP data, indicating a careful interpretation of the figures by investors [1] Economic Data Summary - The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter, following a 0.1% growth in the previous quarter, driven by unstable factors in business investment [1] - Investors may be overly cautious in interpreting the first quarter data, suggesting a continued cautious stance [1] Central Bank Outlook - The Bank of England perceives risks of economic slowdown due to the US's announced tariff measures in April, which may lead to further gradual interest rate cuts [1]