新华财经北京8月14日电（王姝睿）在美国上调关税冲击出口以及英国企业税负加重导致招聘降温的影 响下，英国第二季度经济增速放缓。 贝伦贝格分析师Andrew Wishart也认为，英国央行可能会在2025年剩余时间里将利率维持在4.0%。 然而，市场对此仍存在分歧，因英国经济增长的可持续性存疑。路孚特数据显示，货币市场仍保留英国 央行将在12月降息的预期。 具体来看，英国私人消费超预期疲软，商业投资大幅下滑，表明内生增长动力不足。第二季度的亮眼表 现主要由政府支出和净出口支撑，这种模式难以长期维持。英国特许会计师协会的Suren Thiru认为，第 三季度的增长可能同样缓慢，通胀上升以及秋季预算案中的增税措施将进一步抑制消费。荷兰国际集团 指出，英国第二季度GDP增长表面稳健，但增长主要依赖政府消费及库存等波动项支撑。家庭消费与商 业投资等关键分项显著弱于第一季度。该机构认为，英国央行不会过度解读该数据，至多为"放缓降息 步伐"观点提供有限支持，未来政策仍取决于通胀及就业数据表现。三菱UFJ银行表示，英国经济增长 主要依赖政府消费和资本形成，而私人消费与企业投资弱于预期，料难改变市场对英国央行年内谨慎放 宽政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is likely to face further downward pressure due to weak GDP data released on Friday, indicating economic contraction in May [1] Economic Data - UK GDP unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% in May, highlighting downside risks to economic growth [1] - The weak economic performance has strengthened market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England in August, unless June inflation data shows unexpected improvement [1] Inflation and Market Sentiment - Stable inflation may provide some short-term support for the pound; however, medium-term outlook remains bleak due to fiscal tightening and weak labor market data [1] - Monthly GDP contraction further suggests that the pound will continue to face sustained pressure [1]

英国第一季度经济环比增长0.7%。 ...

Group 1 - The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter, matching expectations for the same growth rate [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - HSBC reported that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in Q1, exceeding expectations, but may face a downturn due to global uncertainties [3] - The growth was supported by strong investment driven by one-off expenditures, but potential declines in trade are anticipated in Q2 [3] - Rising utility costs and increases in wage taxes and minimum wage are expected to impact corporate labor costs [3] Group 2: Currency and Market Reactions - The GBP's reaction to improved UK economic growth data has been muted, indicating cautious interpretation by investors [3] - Despite a 0.7% growth in Q1 following a 0.1% increase in the previous quarter, the growth was driven by unstable corporate investment factors [3] - The Bank of England is likely to interpret the economic slowdown risks as a reason to proceed with gradual interest rate cuts [3] Group 3: Gold Futures Analysis - Gold futures prices have ended a six-day decline, currently reported at 752.74 CNY per gram, with a 1.01% increase [4] - The highest price reached today was 759.20 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 746.44 CNY per gram [4] - Resistance levels for gold are identified between 819-829 CNY, with support levels at 712-722 CNY [4]

金十数据5月15日讯，三菱日联分析师Derek Halpenny在一份报告中说，英镑对英国经济增长数据改善 反应平淡，表明对这些数据的解读较为谨慎。数据显示，继上一季度增长0.1%之后，英国第一季度经 济增长0.7%，但这是由企业投资的不稳定因素推动的。这可能意味着投资者对第一季度数据的过度解 读仍将保持谨慎。鉴于美国4月份宣布的关税措施，英国央行看到了经济增长放缓的风险，因此应该进 一步逐步降息。 英镑对强劲的英国GDP数据反应谨慎 ...