1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This fruit season, the supply of apples is slightly tight as the cold - storage inventory is low and of poor quality, while the demand is good during the relative off - season of domestic fruit supply in March. The acquisition and cold - storage apple prices are high. For the new fruit season, although there is a high probability of a high - yield year for apples, the early flowering due to high accumulated temperature increases the risk of frost damage and makes the new - season apple yield highly uncertain. The 10 - month contract price is high, but considering the high frost - damage risk in April, it is advisable to short at high prices after the apple flowering period ends and it is confirmed that the frost damage is not severe [6][38][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In March, the main - continuous price of apple futures fluctuated significantly. It first rose from around 9,800 yuan/ton to nearly 11,000 yuan/ton, then dropped back to around 9,800 yuan/ton, rose again to around 10,700 yuan/ton, and finally dropped back to around 9,800 yuan/ton. Due to low spot inventory and uncertainty about deliverable warehouse receipts in May, the price repeatedly soared but was pushed down by delivery sell - orders [5][12]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Fundamental analysis: This season, apple supply is tight with low and poor - quality cold - storage inventory. In March, the demand was good during the fruit supply off - season. The acquisition and cold - storage prices are high. For the new season, although it is likely a high - yield year, early flowering due to high accumulated temperature increases frost - damage risk and yield uncertainty. - Disk analysis: The 10 - month contract price is high, seemingly a chance to short at high prices. But considering the high frost - damage risk in April, it is recommended to short at high prices after the apple flowering period ends and it is confirmed that the frost damage is not severe [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Short the 10 - month contract at high prices after the apple flowering period ends and it is confirmed that the frost damage is not severe. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In March, apple sales were okay. Cold - storage inventory was low, and high - quality apples had relatively strong prices. The opening price of Shaanxi Luochuan paper - bagged Fuji 70 semi - commodity increased slightly to around 4.35 yuan/jin, 0.6 yuan/jin higher than last year. The trading price of Shandong Qixia paper - bagged Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods was stable at around 4 yuan/jin, 0.05 yuan/jin lower than last year. The main - continuous price of apple futures fluctuated significantly as described in the preface summary [12]. 3.2.2 Cold - Storage De - stocking Demand is Good - As of March 27, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 4.4179 million tons, a decrease of 266,400 tons from last week and 300,300 tons from last year, a 6.4% decrease. Shandong's cold - storage inventory increased by 6.1% year - on - year, Shaanxi's decreased by 25.5%, Gansu's decreased by 46.9%, Shanxi's increased by 90.6%, and Liaoning's increased by 129.4%. Gansu and Shaanxi had faster de - stocking speeds. Considering April is a fruit supply off - season, the de - stocking speed is expected to remain high [14][16]. 3.2.3 High Accumulated Temperature Leads to Early Flowering of New - Season Apples - Although it is likely a high - yield year for apples this year, high accumulated temperature may lead to apple flowers blooming one to ten days earlier. This increases the risk of frost damage and may have a negative impact on yield, so there is still great uncertainty during the flowering period [24]. 3.2.4 Apple Demand was Okay in March and is Expected to Remain Stable in April - In March, despite being a traditional off - season, apple sales were okay due to the fruit supply off - season. The weekly cold - storage apple sales in the first four weeks of March were 253,900 tons, 278,200 tons, 312,900 tons, and 266,400 tons respectively. In April, which is also a fruit supply off - season and a peak cold - storage apple delivery period, the delivery volume is expected to remain high. The arrival volume at Guangzhou's three major wholesale markets increased gradually in March, with an average daily arrival of 52.67 trucks, maintaining a medium - level. In April, the arrival volume is expected to remain high [25][28]. 3.2.5 Import and Export Situation - Apple export: In January and February 2026, the export volume was at a high level in the same period. The export volumes were 99,900 tons (a 9.4% year - on - year increase and a 36.1% month - on - month decrease) and 79,100 tons (a 16% year - on - year increase and a 20.9% month - on - month decrease) respectively. The cumulative export volume in the first two months was about 179,000 tons, a 17.9% year - on - year increase. The export volume in March is expected to increase compared to February. - Apple import: In January and February 2026, the import volume was at a high level in the same period. The import volumes were 2,800 tons (an 18% year - on - year increase and a 26% month - on - month decrease) and 2,100 tons (a 41% year - on - year increase and a 24.4% month - on - month decrease) respectively. The cumulative import volume in the first two months was about 4,900 tons, a 26.9% year - on - year increase. Although the import volume in March is still expected to be low, it is expected to gradually increase [33]. 3.2.6 High Prices of Substitute Fruits - The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits fluctuated in March, starting at 7.83 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and ending at 7.75 yuan/kg, remaining at a high level in the same period over the years. The average wholesale price of tangerines also fluctuated, remaining at around 6.6 yuan/kg, higher than in February and at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. Due to the short - term lack of available substitute fruits in March and April, the demand for apples is okay [36]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Fundamental analysis: This fruit season, apple supply is tight, demand is good, and costs are high. For the new fruit season, although there is a high probability of a high - yield year, early flowering increases frost - damage risk and yield uncertainty. - Disk analysis: The 10 - month contract price is high, seemingly a chance to short at high prices. But considering the high frost - damage risk in April, it is recommended to short at high prices after the apple flowering period ends and it is confirmed that the frost damage is not severe [38][40].