Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the output of the new apple season is likely to decrease, and the excellent fruit rate is low due to small fruit diameters. The market has high expectations for the new - season apple prices, and there is still room for short - term price increases. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the increase in apple warehouse receipts and inventory may put pressure on the market [5]. - The apple price trend is likely to be strong in the early stage and weak in the later stage [18]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Preface Summary Background Introduction - Recently, the apple price has risen sharply, with the 01 contract price reaching over 8,600 yuan/ton. The market has some disagreements about whether the price will continue to rise [4]. Analysis Conclusion - The new - season apple output in 2025 is likely to decrease, and the excellent fruit rate is low. The market expects high prices for new - season apples, and the short - term price may rise. Medium - to - long - term, the increase in warehouse receipts and inventory will pressure the market [5]. Part Two: Market Analysis New - Season Crop Situation - This year, the apple output is expected to decline, and the quality is poor. In spring, a hot and dry wind in Shaanxi affected apple fruit - setting. Although the bagging volume increased by 5.74% year - on - year, side - flower apples have smaller diameters. Insufficient rainfall during the growth period also led to small fruit diameters. There are quality problems with early - maturing apples, and fruit rust may occur in some areas [9]. - Table 1 shows the comparison of apple bagging in 2025 with 2024. Shaanxi had a 5.74% increase, while Shandong had a 12.95% decrease. The estimated output in 2025 is 3,659.04 million tons, down from 3,734.97 million tons in 2024 [10]. Expected High Initial Purchase Price and High Warehouse Receipt Cost of New - Season Apples - This year's apple purchase price is expected to be high because of the decline in quality and output and the high purchase price of early - maturing apples. The purchase price of Fuji apples is expected to be 0.3 - 0.5 yuan/jin higher than last year. Due to the low excellent fruit rate, the price of high - quality apples will be higher, and the price difference between grades will widen. The warehouse receipt cost is expected to increase by at least 800 - 1,200 yuan/ton compared to last year [11]. Possible Increase in Apple Storage Volume and Long - Term Pressure on Fruit Prices - In 2024, apple cold - storage traders and farmers suffered heavy losses, resulting in low cold - storage inventory in the 2024/25 season. In 2025, cold - storage traders' profits were good. This year, their purchasing enthusiasm may increase, especially for high - quality apples. If the price is appropriate, the apple storage volume may increase, which will put pressure on the market [12]. Relatively Weak Demand - In 2025, apple demand was relatively weak. Despite the low cold - storage inventory in the 2024/25 season and low weekly出库 volume, the apple price did not rise significantly and even declined in July when summer fruits were on the market. In contrast, in low - inventory years like 2018/19 and 2021/22, apple prices rose significantly [15]. Summary - In the short term, factors such as lower - than - expected output, small fruit diameters, low excellent fruit rates, high expected purchase prices, and high warehouse receipt costs will support the apple price to continue rising. - In the medium - to - long - term, the apple price will return to the supply - and - demand level. After the new - season apples are stored in cold storage, the high inventory and weak demand, as well as the increased selling - hedging demand of apple enterprises during the mass - listing period from late October to early November, will put pressure on the market. The apple price trend is likely to be strong in the early stage and weak in the later stage [18].