苹果去库存
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国信期货苹果周报:主力合约完成换月,盘面偏强运行-20250420
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-04-20 02:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The apple futures market is expected to continue its upward trend. Low inventory and the peak consumption season will drive the apple futures price higher. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [36] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures completed the shift, and AP2510 continued its strong trend, supported by fundamentals [8] 3.2 Supply - Side Situation - As of April 17, 2025, the total remaining apple inventory in national cold storage was 2.8645 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The remaining inventory in Shandong's cold storage was 1.5102 million tons, and that in Shaanxi was 0.7985 million tons [13][36] 3.3 Demand - Side Situation - As of April 17, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 21.68%, with a weekly decrease of 3.37 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.46 percentage points. The de - stocking rate was 65.91%. From April to May is the peak apple出库 period, and the lack of a large supply of seasonal fruits is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand. In the northwest, cold - storage apple出库 is in the later stage, with active purchasing by merchants and tight supply. In Shandong, the proportion of high - price goods transactions has increased, and the shipment is good [18][36] - In February, the domestic fresh apple export volume was about 68,200 tons, a 25.28% decrease from the previous month but a 26.64% increase year - on - year. The cumulative export volume from January to February was about 159,500 tons, a 14.85% increase year - on - year. The export is expected to perform well in the first quarter [21] - As of April 18, in Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmers' film - red apples was 3.4 - 3.5 yuan per catty, striped apples were 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty. The price of merchants' film - red apples was 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty, and striped apples were 4.0 - 5.0 yuan per catty. The price of general goods was 2.8 - 3.0 yuan per catty, and the price of third - grade merchants' goods was 2.5 - 3.0 yuan per catty. The price of 70 apples was 2.5 - 2.7 yuan per catty. Merchants' purchasing enthusiasm was high, and the cold - storage shipment speed increased [32]