今天郑棉大幅回调，持仓大幅减少，商品集体回落,郑棉近期上涨也是主要受到预期带动,下游情况总体一般。现货销售一 般,基差稳中偏弱。虽然新棉增产幅度较大,但商业库存同比偏低,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡 季，但需求总体持稳。截至12月25号，累计加工皮棉669.7万吨，同比增加75.8万吨，较过去四年均值增加141.4万吨。国内商 业库存同比偏低,截至12月15号，全国棉花商业库存为534.9万吨，同比减少1.63万吨。国内新疆种植面积减少的政策落实,但 具体减少幅度并未提及。纺企对于原料需求仍存韧性，纺企成品库存不高，但下游订单需求一般。操作上多单离场暂时观望。 (白糖) | | | | Mir | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月08日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ななな | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | 投资咨询证号： Z0015153 联系方式： 010-68518793 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月06日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：内稳外扰下的结构机遇 【市场资讯】1）中国人民银行部署 2026 年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。2）国家外汇局召开 2026 年全国外汇管理工作会议。会 议提出，2026 年出台境外放款、国内外汇贷款资金管理等政策，在全国实施跨国公司本外 币跨境资金集中运营管理政策。筑牢外汇市场"防波堤""防浪堤"，维护外汇市场稳健运行。 3）美联储理事米兰：2026 年需要降息超过 100 个基点。4）委内瑞拉局势——①油库满载 委内瑞拉和美国就向美出口石油问题进行谈判。②马杜罗执政初期，委内瑞拉向瑞士运送 了价值 52 亿美元的黄金。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】1 月 5 日至 6 日召开的 2026 年中国人民银行工作会议，正式确认 全年货币政策基调为"适度宽松"，并首次强调增量政策与存量政策的"集成效应"，标志着宏 观调控思路的系统性调整。会议明确将灵活运用降准降息等多种工具，保持流动性合理充 裕，并完善结构性货币政策，加大对科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的支持。这一部署 与"两重""两新"投资及消费提振政策形成协同，强化了对基建、工业品及下游板块的支撑力 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年1月6日，国内期货主力合约大面积飘红，碳酸锂涨停，沪银涨超7%，铂涨超6%，钯涨超5%，沪 锡、沪铜、国际铜、沪镍涨超4%，PVC、沪铝、甲醇、苹果涨超3%，硅铁、双胶纸、沪锌、铝合金、 菜籽涨超2%。跌幅方面，胶合板跌超1%，焦炭、原木小幅下跌。 | 序号 | 言约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 开机 | 卖价 | 深幅8+ | And | 英量 | 同型 | 薄膜 | 特色 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 碳酸锂2605 M | 137940 | 1 | 137940 | | 8.99% | 6953 | - | 304224 11380 | | 534996 | 19704 | | 2 | 护银2604 m | 19452 | 19 | 19450 | 19452 | 7.06% | 166 | 3 | 1929939 1283 | | 277142 | 38261 | | 3 ...

混沌天成期货指出，截至2025年12月31日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为733.56万吨，环比上周减少 10.47万吨，去库速度低于去年同期；山东产区库存苹果晚熟纸袋富士主流价格稳定，冷库主要成交中 小果及少量统货，其他品种货源电商需求较旺，春节备货开始，客户采购量增加，整体出货稍有提高； 陕西产区主流价格稳定，贸易商多自己包装自有货源发市场，冷库客商成交增加，客商主要选购好货及 低价货，好货难寻，包装自有货源的比较多；消费端表现偏弱，柑橘等水果大量上市，交割博弈再次发 酵，2605合约放量大涨，维持高位震荡，近期主要关注春节备货消费端表现。 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，库内富士好货行情相对稳定，果农一般货源多以质论价为主。产区整体交 易氛围不旺，客商多维持按需采购。陕西产区部分果农存在让价心理，成交以少量两级货源为主，仍以 客商发自存货源为主。山东产区成交较为零星，维纳斯等替代苹果按需出库，其余货源交易不多。甘肃 产区客商按需调果农货源，包装发货较为稳定，走货尚可。销区市场车厘子、柑橘等水果占据市场热 度，且节日提振作用受限，短期价格将震荡运行为主。 1月6日，国内期市农副产品板块全线飘红。其中，苹果期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum is still weak, but different investment products have different trends. For example, the stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, while the treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [6][9]. 3. Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw most treasury bond futures close down. The 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.05%, 0.02%, and 0.03% respectively, while the 10 - year main contract rose by 0.03% [5]. - **Policy and News**: The central bank conducted 13.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 5th, with a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan due to 482.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. The 9 - department notice on promoting green consumption was released [5]. - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 2.26%, 2.55%, 3.11%, and 2.69% respectively [8]. - **Policy and News**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on promoting the cross - departmental work of the comprehensive prevention and control system for financial fraud in the capital market. It aims to improve the system, strengthen coordination, and enhance corporate governance [9]. - **Outlook**: The fluctuation center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the gold main contract close at 995 with a 1.78% increase, and the silver main contract close at 18,247 with a 6.87% increase [11]. - **Policy and News**: The Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari commented on the employment market, inflation, and economic outlook [11]. - **Outlook**: The market volatility is expected to significantly increase. It is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Steel Products (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures weakly oscillate. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai thread steel, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for thread steel is in a year - on - year decline, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure has eased as the production is at a low level this year. The inventory is higher than last year but the consumption speed is fast. The hot - rolled coil has similar fundamentals [13]. - **Outlook**: The prices are likely to continue to weakly oscillate. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage their positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillate at a high level. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were reported [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The national hot metal daily output has declined in the past two months. The import volume in the first 11 months of 2025 increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and the domestic production is lower than in 2024. The port inventory is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years [15]. - **Outlook**: The market supply - demand pattern is weak, but the futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels and manage their positions carefully [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke futures decline significantly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: After the holiday, domestic coking coal production increased. The demand from downstream coke enterprises is weak, and the fourth - round price cut of coke procurement has been implemented. The blast furnace profit is low, and the demand for coke is weak [17]. - **Outlook**: The futures may continue to weakly oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels and manage their positions carefully [17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon main contract decline by 0.78% and the silicon - iron main contract decline by 1.37% [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The manganese ore supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is slightly increasing. The cost of ferroalloys fluctuates slightly at a low level. The production of thread steel by sample steel mills is lower than in 2024, and the production of ferroalloys is at a low level in the past five - year period, but the inventory continues to increase [19]. - **Outlook**: After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [20]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil decline significantly due to the possible development of Venezuelan oil resources by the US [21]. - **Policy and News**: The US may have captured the Venezuelan president, and the US oil production reached a record high in October. The OPEC meeting confirmed a suspension of production increase in the first quarter [21]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw fuel oil decline significantly and close below the moving average group. The Asian VLSFO spot discount narrowed, and the HSFO oscillated within a range [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory is high, which is negative for prices. The spot discount narrowing and the possible increase in crude oil prices may support the fuel oil price [24]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [25]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Hangzhou PP market have mixed price movements, and the Yuyao LLDPE price increased [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production enterprises are actively reducing inventory, and the market price has stopped falling and rebounded, which is conducive to price stability [26]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [27]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract rise by 0.95%. The Shandong mainstream price increased, and the basis was stable [28]. - **Supply and Demand**: The price increase was supported by the rise in butadiene price and high device operating rate, but the weak downstream demand limited the increase. The inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased [28][29]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract rise by 1.06% and 1.14% respectively. The Shanghai spot price increased, and the basis slightly widened [31]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic supply has stopped, but the overseas pressure remains. The demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory is seasonally increasing. The 20 - rubber delivery supply has expanded [31]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate [32]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract decline by 0.67%. The spot price was stable, and the basis slightly widened [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: It is in the traditional off - season. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The cost support is strong, and the social inventory is increasing [33][34]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side [33][34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the urea main contract rise by 1.43%. The Shandong Linyi price increased, and the basis was stable [35]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output has slightly increased, and the agricultural demand is expected to increase. The demand from the industrial sector is weak. The inventory has decreased [35]. - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited [36]. PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the PX2603 main contract decline by 1.23%. The PXN spread and short - term profit are recovering [37]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is stable, and the inventory is low. The crude oil price may be adjusted due to the US - Venezuela situation [37][38]. - **Outlook**: It may oscillate and adjust in the short term. It is advisable to participate with caution and pay attention to macro - policies and fundamental changes [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the PTA2605 main contract decline by 1.87%. The processing fee has recovered [39]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load has increased, and the polyester load has recovered. The export has increased. The cost of crude oil may be uncertain due to geopolitical situations [39]. - **Outlook**: It may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to operate with caution and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the ethylene glycol main contract decline by 2.51% [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to increase, the port inventory is increasing, and the demand support is slightly weakening [40][41]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2602 main contract decline by 1.25% [42]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal factories are mainly consuming inventory. The new orders in the weaving sector are weak [42]. - **Outlook**: It may oscillate following the raw material price. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the bottle - chip 2603 main contract decline by 1.46%. The processing fee is around 410 yuan/ton [43]. - **Supply and Demand**: The bottle - chip factory load has increased, and the export growth rate has increased. The supply - demand structure has slightly improved, but the cost is still the main influencing factor [43]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate following the cost. It is advisable to participate with caution and control risks [44]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the lithium carbonate main contract rise by 7.74% [45]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased [45]. - **Outlook**: The price may be supported in the short term, but it is necessary to operate with caution as it is easily affected by news [45]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai copper main contract rise by 2.22% [46]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global copper supply may be tight due to strikes in Chile. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing [46]. - **Outlook**: The price is at a high level. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise [46]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai aluminum main contract rise by 2.57%, and the alumina main contract decline by 0.72% [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: The alumina supply is in excess, and the electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand from processing enterprises is weak [48]. - **Outlook**: The price is at a high level. It is necessary to be vigilant about price retracement [48]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc main contract rise by 1.16% [50]. - **Supply and Demand**: The zinc concentrate processing fee is low, and the refined zinc production may decrease. The overseas supply - demand tension has eased [50]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise as the consumption off - season is approaching [50]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai lead main contract rise by 0.32% [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply from primary and secondary lead enterprises is weak, and the consumption is in the off - season. The inventory is low [52][53]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate within a range [54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai tin main contract rise by 1.05% [55]. - **Supply and Demand**: The tin supply is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production resumption in Wa State. The demand has some resilience [55]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai nickel main contract rise by 0.71% [56]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Indonesian nickel policy may increase costs. The stainless - steel demand is weak, and the primary nickel is in an oversupply situation [56]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to pay attention to policy changes [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the soybean meal main contract decline by 0.28% and the soybean oil main contract decline by 0.13% [57]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Brazilian soybean planting is almost completed. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, while the demand for soybean oil has slightly improved [57][58]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the cost - support range for soybean meal and long - position opportunities for call options at low levels for soybean oil [58]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw Malaysian palm oil rise slightly [59]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to reach a seven - year high, and the export has decreased. The domestic import has increased [60]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed price increased by more than 1% [62]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports have changed, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high and low level respectively in the past seven years [62]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [63]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the domestic Zhengzhou cotton first rise and then fall. The overseas cotton price rose by 1% [64]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly, but the future planting area may decrease. The textile and clothing export has shown some resilience [65][66]. - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to be strong [66]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Zhengzhou sugar oscillate and rebound, and the overseas raw sugar slightly rebounded [68]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and Indian sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is increasing. The import volume has changed [69]. - **Outlook**: The upward space may be limited after the significant rebound [70]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the domestic apple futures rise significantly [72]. - **Supply and Demand**: The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season production and quality have declined [73]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [73]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the national average pig price remain unchanged. The main contract declined by 0.98% [75][76]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of large - scale farms may increase in January, and the demand has weakened after the holiday. The frozen - product inventory has decreased [75][76]. - **Outlook**: The supply may face great pressure in the first quarter. It is advisable to consider an inverse spread strategy [76]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main contract rise by 1.42% [78]. - **Supply and Demand**: The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in January, but the supply may improve marginally. The consumption is weak after the New Year's Day [77][78]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to consider a positive spread strategy [78]. Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the corn main contract decline by 0.22% and the corn starch main contract decline by 0.44% [79]. - **Supply and Demand**: The North Port corn inventory is low, and the Northeast production area's grain - selling progress is fast. The

广大 H ST = D3 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月6日 @剑三(Z0019556) 数据来源: Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证・在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考。 报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。 欢迎关注微信公众号 | | 品种 | 合約 | 【每日精选观点】 观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铝 | AL2602 | 震荡偏强 | | | | 甲醇 | MA2605 | 短期偏强 | | | | 铁矿石 | 12605 | 短多尝试 | | | | 苹果 | AP2605 | 震荡偏强 | | | | 白银 | AG2604 | 偏强震荡 | | | | | | 【全品种日评】 | | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | | | IF2603 | | A股指数连续反弹,宽基ETF近期亦明显 ...

| 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 买价 | 英价 | 784887 | 本書 | 英国 | 同体 | 湯時 | 持色量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | per Secon w | 132600 | 5063 | 132580 | 132600 | 4.77% | 200 | 7 | 5063 | 6040 | 514182 | -1110 | | 2 | 268560d in | 18670 | 1349 | 18670 | 18675 | 2.76% | 11 | 1 | 1044511 | 501 | 262308 | 23427 | | 3 | 4E2606 in | 461.00 | 188 | 460.30 | 461.00 | 2.73% | 2 | 1 | | 188 12.25 | 13418 | -155 | | पं | 在线SeOS in | 24170 | 117 | 24165 | 24170 | 2.59% | 1 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 01 月 05 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作目价 | 涨跌 | | 吗 | | | | | | 够 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.01 | 108.70 | 0.31 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.93 | 7.92 | 0.01 | | 期货价格 | | | | | | | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年1月5日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，钯涨超8%，碳酸锂涨超7%，铂涨超6%，铝合金、苹果涨 超4%，沪铝、沥青、国际铜涨超3%，沪铜、沪锡、多晶硅、沪锌涨超2%。跌幅方面，烧碱、SC原 油、焦煤跌超3%，纯碱、焦炭、乙二醇、低硫燃料油跌超2%。 | 명 | 出好名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 天和 | 李川 | 法指示十 | 式器 | 交通 | 成交量 | 图片 | 持仓量 | 日増仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 4 2606 M | 452.85 | 3 | 453.00 | 453.05 | 8.88% | J | 1 | 32771 36.95 | | 13573 | -832 | | 2 | 明确保持2606 N | 129980 | 6 | 129980 | 130000 | 7.74% | 35 | 90 | 343623 9340 | | 515290 | 25096 | | ...