商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | | 市场表现：周一贵金属价格震荡，市场逐步消化鲍威尔讲话。 | | | | | | | 金 | | 基本面：特朗普政府据称考虑因数字服务法制裁欧盟官员。国内黄金 ETF | 资金小幅流出，COMEX | | | 黄金库存 | | | 属 | 1199 | 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 37 吨，维持不变；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | 吨；上期所白银库存 | | | 1113 | | | 吨，增加 | 4 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1289 吨，减少 64 吨，COMEX | 白银库存 | 15823 | 吨，增加 7 | | 吨；伦 | | | 敦 7 | 月白银库存增加 408 吨至 24196 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 | 吨左右。全球最大白银 | | etf--iShares | | 持有 | | | 量为 | 15288 吨，增加 11 吨。 | | | | | | | | | 交易策略： ...

农产品日报 | 2025-08-26 早熟嘎啦上量增加，红枣关注产区天气 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约8141元/吨，较前一日变动+47元/吨，幅度+0.58%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-641，较前一日变动-47；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.50元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+859，较前一日变动-47。 近期市场资讯，早熟嘎啦质量不均，客商按需拿货，价格维持两极分化，好货维持坚挺难跌，一般货源价格混乱。 山东产区鲁丽、金都红、奶油华硕有序交易，整体量不大，客商采购积极性尚可。苹果库存富士行情维持稳淡， 山东产区客商拿货积极性一般，成交氛围不旺，部分果农及持货商开始让价出售。陕西洛川产区纸袋嘎啦70#起步 主流参考价4-4.5元/斤附近，好货4.8-5元/斤，一般货2.8-3元/斤，实际以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/ 斤，果农80#以上统货2.3-3.0元/斤，80#一二级条纹3.3-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.0-4.0元/斤 ...

上周美糖震荡。由于前期降水不足，巴西甘蔗单产有所下降。截止到6月底，巴西中南部地区甘蔗累积单产为79.32吨/公顷，同 比下降11.04%。另外，今年生产进度也偏慢，导致甘蔗和食糖产量同比明显下降。不过，今年的甘蔗制糖比例同比继续增加， 而且从糖醇比价来看，比值依然处于历史震荡区间上沿，美糖上方仍面临一定压力。国内方面，郑糖震荡。产销方面，今年销 售节奏较快，库存同比减少，现货压力相对较轻。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易重心转向进口和下榨季的估产。今年搪浆进口 量大幅减少,国产糖的销售压力较小。不过,25/26榨季的产量预期存在不确定性,如果后期降雨不足可能会导致减产，关注后 续天气情况和甘蔗长势。 (苹果) 期价震荡。早熟苹果价格基本持稳、好货价格较高，客商采购积极性较好。冷库苹果方面，剩余货量不多，市场需求一般。库 存方面,卓创的数据显示,截止到8月22日,全国冷库苹果库存为40.42万吨,同比成少51.84%。上周全国冷库苹果去阵量为 5.71万吨，同比下降21.13%。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易重心转向新李度的估产。今年西部产区受到实潮和花期大风的影 响，但是低温对产量的影响不太,主要增加了果锈的风险。另 ...

期货市场交易指引 南华商品指数 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 ◆铝： | | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples, with few trading points on the futures market. The opening price of early-maturing apples is higher than last year, and they are selling well, while inventory apples are dropping in price and not selling well. The recent rise in the futures market is mainly influenced by low inventory, early-maturing apple prices, and sales. However, the quality of early-maturing apples is uneven, and there are concerns about potential issues with late-maturing Fuji apples [4]. - Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and unstable weather in production areas, which may lead to a significant reduction in production in the Northwest region [4]. - Bearish factors include a smaller-than-expected reduction in production based on bagging data and the impact of the peak season of seasonal fruits on apple sales, as well as weak consumer demand [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The predicted price range for apples in the coming month is 7600 - 8400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 0.1% over the past 3 years [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - If worried about a bumper harvest of new apples and low purchase prices, for long - position inventory, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 8300 - 8400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell call options (AP2510C8200) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 30 - 40 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the apple price rises [3]. Procurement Management - If worried about a decrease in old - crop apple inventory, a potential reduction in new - crop apples, and high purchase prices, for short - position inventory, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 8000 - 8050 to lock in procurement costs. Also, sell put options (AP2510P8000) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 70 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the apple price falls [3]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On August 22, 2025, the closing prices and daily/weekly price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, AP04, AP05, AP10, AP11, AP12) are provided, along with the prices and daily/weekly price changes of different grades of spot apples in various regions. The futures contract AP01 closed at 8018 with a daily increase of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.12%, while the spot price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.75 with a daily decrease of 1.32% and a weekly decrease of 1% [6]. Apple Inventory - On August 22, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 39.45 (with a weekly decrease of 6.56), and according to Zhuochuang was 40.42 (with a weekly decrease of 5.71). The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, etc., also showed weekly decreases. In addition, the arrival volume of apples at several wholesale markets in Guangdong increased compared to the previous week [10].

农产品日报 | 2025-08-22 库内果走货减缓，红枣关注产区天气 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约8103元/吨，较前一日变动+39元/吨，幅度+0.48%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-503，较前一日变动-39；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.50元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+897，较前一日变动-39。 近期市场资讯，早熟方面，西部嘎啦陆续上量，整体果个偏小，红货好货占比仍不多，价格维持两极分化，陕北 嘎啦质量优于渭南产区。山东产区鲁丽、金都红、奶油华硕有序交易，整体量不大，客商采购积极性尚可。苹果 库存富士行情维持稳淡，山东产区客商拿货积极性一般，成交氛围不旺，目前价格表现混乱，部分果农及持货商 开始让价出售。陕西渭南合阳纸袋嘎啦70#起步一般货参考价3.0-3.2元/斤附近，上色不好货源价格2.2-2.5元/斤，实 际以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上统货2.8-3.3元/斤，80#一二级条纹3.5-4.5元/斤，8 ...

Core Insights - The event "2024 World Investor Week" focused on investor suitability assessment and knowledge training on futures products, supported by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [1][2] - The training aimed to enhance investors' understanding of legal frameworks, risk management, and specific futures products, promoting rational investment practices [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The training session was held at the Ramada Hotel in Zibo, Shandong, with participation from 64 investors from the region [2] - The event featured expert speakers, including Wang Zhixin from Shandong Fulian International Trade Co., and Jin Jie from Hangzhou Yijia Bohe Investment Management Co., who provided insights on legal regulations and futures market analysis [1][2] Group 2: Training Content - The first half of the training covered legal frameworks and investor suitability management, emphasizing the importance of compliance and risk assessment [1] - The second half focused on key futures products from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, including methanol, apples, and red dates, discussing contract design, market analysis, and trading strategies [2] Group 3: Investor Engagement - The event facilitated active interaction and discussions among participants, enhancing their ability to identify illegal futures activities and understand market mechanisms [2] - The company expressed its commitment to continue offering diverse training and market service activities across the country, promoting rational investment concepts [2]

Group 1 - The event focused on preventing illegal securities activities and the practical application of apple futures in enterprise risk management [1][2] - Professor He Shaoqi emphasized that illegal futures trading is essentially fraudulent, harming inexperienced investors and disrupting financial order [1] - A comprehensive legal framework has been established in China to combat illegal futures activities, involving a collaborative mechanism among four departments for accountability [1] Group 2 - Manager Wang Zhixin discussed key delivery elements of apple futures contracts, including grade standards, location settings, process arrangements, and default handling [2] - Enterprises can effectively manage market risks through hedging, diversified operations, and financial management, with a focus on the "insurance + futures" innovative model [2] - The event had a total of 550 page views and 291 unique viewers, indicating a successful outreach in investor education [2]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 08 月 21 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar** - The import of sugar syrups and premixes in China increased month - on - month in July but decreased year - on - year, with the gap narrowing. The main import items have shifted, and the import volume under the 2106.906 item has hit new highs. - Due to factors such as reduced syrup imports and slow sugar imports in the first half of the year, although domestic sugar production increased in the 2024/25 season, the supply and demand of domestic sugar were strong, and enterprise inventory pressure was not significant. - Since the third quarter, the import of overseas raw sugar has accelerated, increasing the pressure on the supply side from processed sugar, and the import of syrups and premixes has also rebounded. However, concerns about the new Brazilian sugar season have supported the prices of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3][4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp** - The spot pulp market has been weak recently, but the price of hardwood pulp has remained stable. Overseas pulp mill production cuts have provided some support, but the prices of downstream finished paper products have remained low. - The shipment volume of softwood pulp in June increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The shipment volume of hardwood pulp remained at a high level, and exports to China were still strong. There have been some news of hardwood pulp production cuts, but the short - term impact is limited. - The pulp and paper industry lacks policy support, demand improvement is limited, and the supply pressure of hardwood pulp remains. However, the price of softwood pulp is below the cost of mainstream countries, and the price of hardwood pulp is close to the marginal cost, so the overall valuation is not high, which may support prices to some extent [5]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton** - In the international market, there is a multi - empty game. The steady listing of cotton in South America and Australia and the US tariff policy have put pressure on the market, but factors such as the decline in the US planting area, the slow progress of Indian cotton planting, and the temporary cancellation of Indian import tariffs have provided potential support. The new - season global cotton has changed from a slight inventory increase last month to a slight inventory decrease, narrowing the downward space for prices. - In the domestic market, there is a game between tight spot supply and weak downstream consumption. The extension of Sino - US tariffs has provided some support, but the suppression on the consumption side still exists, limiting the upward space for prices [6]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Apple** - The current focus is on the end of the old - season apples and the realization of the new - season production. The end of the old - season is in line with expectations, and there are some differences in the preliminary production estimates of the new - season, but the range is limited. The opening prices of early - maturing apples have increased year - on - year, providing some support to the market, but the sustainability needs to be monitored. The price of the Apple 10 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Jujube** - On Wednesday, the agricultural product index fluctuated weakly, and the jujube futures price opened low and closed high. The price of the Jujube 2601 contract broke through the previous high and then fluctuated. Driven by the continuous reduction of spot inventory, the price of the 2509 contract also rose sharply, and the premium of futures over spot warehouse receipts increased. - In August, the inventory of jujubes decreased at an accelerated pace, the enthusiasm of terminal replenishment improved, and the dried fruit consumption is gradually entering the seasonal peak season. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the production of new - season jujubes in August [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Futures** - Apple 2510: Adopt an interval trading strategy. The fundamental changes are limited. The performance of early - maturing apples provides some support, but the strength is limited. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 7400 - 7500 (support) and 8300 - 8400 (resistance) [16]. - Jujube 2601: Reduce long positions. The overall market sentiment is strong, and the jujube enters the production - forming period in the third quarter, which is prone to price increases due to weather concerns. The support range is 11000 - 11200, and the resistance range is 11500 - 12000 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2601: Adopt an interval trading strategy. Concerns about Brazilian sugar supply are increasing, but the import pressure has been realized, and the upward movement of the futures price is under pressure. The support range is 5550 - 5570, and the resistance range is 5730 - 5750 [16]. - Pulp 2511: Temporarily wait and see. Softwood pulp prices are below the cost of mainstream producers, and there have been production cuts in hardwood pulp, which provides some short - term support. However, the weak finished paper market limits the upward space. The support range is 5100 - 5200, and the resistance range is 5400 - 5450 [16]. - Cotton 2601: Adopt an interval trading strategy. There is a game between tight spot supply and weak consumption expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 13500 - 13600 (support) and 14200 - 14300 (resistance) [16]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of August 13, the inventory in apple cold storages in the main producing areas was 460,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,800 tons. As of August 14, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 461,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 378,000 tons. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production, with a slight decrease estimated by Zhuochuang and a slight increase estimated by Mysteel [17]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong production area was stable. Storage merchants were eager to sell, while buyers were cautious. The price of early - maturing apples was stable at high levels for good - quality products, with large price differences for poor - quality products. In the sales area, the overall arrival volume increased, demand was stable, and prices remained stable [18][19]. - **Jujube Market**: As of August 15, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54%, and a year - on - year increase of 72.62%. The arrival volume in the sales area increased month - on - month. Driven by the downstream replenishment demand, the spot price showed a strong trend. The market trading atmosphere improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm for high - quality products increased [20]. - **Sugar Market**: In July 2025, China imported a total of 159,800 tons of sugar syrups and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons and a month - on - month increase of 44,000 tons. The import volume under the 210690 item reached 114,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of nearly 30% and a new high. As of noon, the spot market price of sugar in Guangxi was around 5950 yuan/ton, and the price in the Kunming market decreased slightly [22]. - **Pulp Market**: Although the domestic spot and futures prices of softwood pulp rebounded last week, the import price remained stable. Domestic pulp and paper integrated producers purchased a large amount of softwood and hardwood pulp, pushing up the prices of these two pulp types. Most buyers postponed their purchases of imported softwood pulp, waiting for the August quotes from major suppliers. Canadian and Nordic NBSK prices remained at 680 - 700 US dollars/ton, and Brazilian producers were seeking to increase the price of South American hardwood pulp by 20 US dollars/ton [25]. - **Cotton Market**: The cotton - picking progress in the main producing areas of Brazil continued to advance. As of August 15, the picking progress in Mato Grosso state reached 40.0%, a month - on - month increase of 13 percentage points but 17.0 percentage points behind the same period last year. As of August 19, the cumulative rainfall of the Indian southwest monsoon was 611.8, 1.8% higher than the long - term average. There was a high probability of heavy rainfall in many places. In July 2025, the export volume of cotton products increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but the export price decreased. The export volume and amount of cotton cloth also increased [26][27]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of Apple 2510, Jujube 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 decreased, while the closing price of Sugar 2601 increased [28]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of apples remained unchanged month - on - month, the prices of jujubes and sugar decreased, the price of pulp remained stable, and the price of cotton decreased slightly [32]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description of the basis situation, only references to relevant figures [40][41][45]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - The 10 - 1 spread of apples was 126, a week - on - week decrease of 34 and a year - on - year decrease of 2, and it is expected to fluctuate repeatedly. - The 9 - 1 spread of jujubes was - 1070, a week - on - week decrease of 1075 and a year - on - year decrease of 190, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - The 9 - 1 spread of sugar was 51, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 280, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton was 15, a week - on - week decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 30, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for all [47]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation There is no specific text description of the futures positioning situation, only references to relevant figures [54][57][61]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, with no change week - on - week and year - on - year. - The number of jujube warehouse receipts was 9832, a week - on - week increase of 337 and a year - on - year increase of 477. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 16244, a week - on - week decrease of 242 and a year - on - year increase of 889. - The number of pulp warehouse receipts was 252639, a week - on - week decrease of 1213 and a year - on - year decrease of 228502. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 7455, a week - on - week decrease of 141 and a year - on - year decrease of 2328 [76]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description of the option - related data, only references to relevant figures [78][80][81].