Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The international oil price continues to decline due to increased US crude oil inventories, and it will remain under pressure for the rest of the year, with the oversupply pressure slightly easing in Q1 next year [1]. - Gold may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term and has limited downside space in the short term, affected by the US government shutdown, Sino - US relations, and the high - level US dollar index [2]. - Synthetic rubber will run weakly due to supply increments and demand - side constraints [4]. - PTA has weak fundamental drivers with clear supply increments, stable demand, and a slightly accumulating balance sheet [4]. - Iron ore prices have limited upside space under the background of loose supply and pressured demand [5]. - Coking coal's upward drive weakens after the macro - level positive factors are realized [5]. - Steel prices are expected to decline slightly in the short term due to approaching off - season and potential supply contractions [6]. - Live hog prices may still decline after a rebound due to large supply pressure and unchanged terminal demand [6]. - Palm oil will run weakly in the short term due to unexpectedly high production in Malaysia and weak domestic demand [7]. - Rapeseed meal prices have a lower risk of decline due to supply shortages, and a callback - buying strategy is recommended [8]. - Silver will oscillate with a bullish bias due to positive economic data in the US and pressure from the rising US dollar index [8]. - Long - term treasury bonds will oscillate with a bullish bias in the medium term due to economic pressure and positive factors from the central bank [9]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. - Caustic soda's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - As of October 31, US total crude oil inventories (including strategic reserves) were 830.763 million barrels, an increase of 5.7 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude inventories were 421.168 million barrels, an increase of 5.2 million barrels; gasoline inventories were 206.009 million barrels, a decrease of 4.73 million barrels [1]. - US daily crude oil production was 13.651 million barrels as of October 31, an increase of 7,000 barrels from the previous week and 151,000 barrels from the same period last year [1]. Gold - The US federal government shutdown has entered its 36th day, breaking the previous record, and may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points [2]. Synthetic Rubber - From January to October 2025, domestic butadiene production was 4.472 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.5%; in October, the production was 457,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.47% [4]. - In October, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%, with a capacity utilization rate of 71.39% [4]. PTA - The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 14 - 24 days, with POY at 14 - 23 days, FDY at 12 - 22 days, and DTY at 13 - 25 days [4]. Iron Ore - From October 27 to November 2, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 3.3141 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2298 million tons [5]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 37.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%; the daily output of clean coal was 275,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; and the clean coal inventory was 2.95 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,000 tons [5]. Steel - As of a certain period, the national building materials social inventory was 638,400 tons, an increase of 2,180 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory was 347,750 tons, a decrease of 8,350 tons; and the production was 397,070 tons, an increase of 1,470 tons [6]. Live Hogs - On November 5, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.19 yuan/kg, a 0.9% increase from the previous day [6]. Palm Oil - In October, Malaysia's crude palm oil production was 2.07 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.31%, reaching an eight - year high [7]. Rapeseed Meal - As of the 44th week of 2025, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions of China was 514,800 tons, a decrease of 16,600 tons from the previous week [8]. Silver - The US October ISM services PMI rose 2.4 points to 52.4, the new orders index jumped 5.8 points to 56.2, the service payment price index rose to 70, and the employment index rose to 48.2 [8]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - China's October S&P services PMI was 52.6 (previous value 52.9), and the composite PMI was 51.8 (previous value 52.5) [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1,261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous day; the weekly production was 757,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%; and the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.702 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01% [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,082 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the domestic weekly methanol capacity utilization rate was 86.73%, an increase of 1.09%; the downstream total capacity utilization rate was 75.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%; the port sample inventory was 1.5171 million tons, an increase of 10,600 tons; and the sample enterprise production inventory was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons [10]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 84.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%; the inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 442,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.84% [11].