1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, the good quality rate of US corn is improving, and the trade relationship between China and the US has eased, leading to concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, the supply of corn is gradually tightening, and traders are reluctant to sell. However, the substitution effect of wheat and the expectation of imported corn supply have slowed down the upward momentum of corn prices. The recent upward trend of the corn futures market has also slowed down, and short - term participation is recommended [2] - For corn starch, affected by continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level in recent years. With reduced supply pressure and strong corn prices, the spot price of corn starch is relatively stable, and the industry inventory has slightly decreased. Recently, due to the slowdown in the rise of corn prices, the starch market has been volatile, and short - term participation is recommended [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures is 2694 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 92 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 429 cents/bushel, with a decrease of 3.75 cents; the total position of CBOT corn is 1614274 contracts, a decrease of 54876 contracts [2] - The net long position of non - commercial traders in CBOT corn is 95494 contracts, a decrease of 14435 contracts [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2421.96 yuan/ton, and the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, with a production of 35.37 million tons; in Brazil, the sown area is 53 million hectares, with a production of 7.5 million tons; in China, the sown area is 295 million hectares, with a production of 44.3 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports is 11.9 million tons, and the inventory of deep - processed corn is 113.5 million tons; the inventory of corn in northern ports is 382 million tons, and the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 132.8 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2664 million tons, and the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 83 yuan/ton; the processing profit in Hebei is - 35 yuan/ton, and in Jilin is - 94 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.32%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.49%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 1.62%, and that of at - the - money put options is 5.37% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of the week ending June 12, 2025, the net sales volume of US corn in the 2024/25 season was 903,800 tons, 14% higher than the previous week but 6% lower than the four - week average [2] - As of June 18, the harvest progress of Argentine corn in the 2024/25 season was 49.6%, only 2.9% higher than a week ago [2] - As of the week ending June 15, 2025, the good quality rate of US corn was 72%, higher than the market expectation of 71% [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective rise in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.52%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.83%, and ChiNext Index up by 1.21% [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 1.28 trillion yuan, a decrease of 164.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The rare earth permanent magnet sector experienced significant gains, with Zhongke Magnetic Materials hitting the daily limit of 20% [2][4] - The gaming sector also saw a surge, with companies like Deyuan Network reaching the daily limit [2][5] - The automotive parts sector was active, with multiple companies announcing a unified payment term of 60 days for suppliers, leading to strong performances from stocks like Tongda Electric and Meichen Technology [2][8] Key Stocks - Notable gainers included: - Jiuling Technology up by 29.89% [5] - Zhongke Magnetic Materials up by 19.99% [5] - Xinghui Entertainment up by 13.43% [6] - The automotive sector saw significant increases, with Jianghuai Automobile rising nearly 7% and BYD up by over 2% [8] Policy Impact - The ongoing trade negotiations between China and the U.S. are expected to address restrictions on rare earth materials, positively impacting related sectors [4] - The Zhejiang Provincial Department of Commerce and 17 other departments issued measures to support the international expansion of gaming companies, which is likely to benefit the gaming sector [5] Market Sentiment - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has boosted market risk appetite, particularly in the technology sector, which has continued its rebound since late May [14] - Analysts suggest a cautious approach, advocating for a rotation strategy in the technology sector while being prepared for potential market fluctuations [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In the context of the industrial off - season, the real - demand driving force is limited. Although the news of the Sino - US presidential call strengthened the recent macro - expectations and led to a small - scale and phased rebound in iron ore and black prices, the future direction of the macro - narrative is highly uncertain, and it is too early to talk about a reversal. The sustainability of high exports is also highly controversial. Considering the expected increase in iron ore supply in the future, the sustainability of this small - scale rebound is poor, but potential upward risks at the macro and political levels still need attention [4][49] Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Market**: This week, the price of the main iron ore contract I2509 fluctuated and declined, closing at 707.5 yuan/ton, with a position of 724,000 lots, a decrease of 9,700 lots [7] - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot prices of imported ores at ports decreased slightly, with some exceptions like the 56.5% super - special powder which increased. The prices of domestic ores also generally decreased. The Platts 62% index closed at $96.10 per dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.70 [8] 1.2 Spread Changes - **Spot Variety Spread**: This week, the prices of low - grade ores at ports were relatively firm, and the spread between medium - and low - grade ores continued to shrink [16] - **Futures - Spot and Futures Inter - Month Spread**: This week, the main iron ore 2509 contract was at a discount of 92.4 yuan/ton compared to the 61.5% PB powder spot at Qingdao Port, a reduction of 11.0 yuan/ton from the previous week. The 2509 - 2601 spread was 36.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the 2601 - 2605 spread was 19.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton from the previous week [20] 2. Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 2.1 Supply - **Foreign Ore Shipment and Domestic Arrival**: As of May 23, the weekly shipment from Australia was 1.7494 million tons, and from Brazil was 0.837 million tons, a total of 2.5864 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 89,700 tons. The arrival volume at northern Chinese ports was 1.5408 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 482,000 tons [26] - **Domestic Ore Capacity Utilization**: As of June 6, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines nationwide was 61.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18% [27] - **Iron Ore Freight**: The freight from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was $23.46, an increase of $4.22 from the previous period; the freight from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was $10.28, a week - on - week increase of $1.97 [28] 2.2 Demand - As of June 6, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 90.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04%. The weekly output of the five major steel products was 880,380 tons, a decrease of 470 tons from the previous week. The inflection point of molten iron has emerged, but the downstream construction is still at a relatively high level [37][38] 2.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 138.2669 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 398,900 tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 2.418 million tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory increased, while the Brazilian ore inventory decreased [40] 2.4 Steel Mill Profits - This week, the prices of coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly, but the spot prices followed up limitedly, resulting in a divergence in the profit trends of futures and spot in the finished - product segment. In terms of futures profit, as of June 6, the futures profit of the rebar 2510 contract was 82.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.20 yuan/ton from last week; the futures profit of the hot - rolled coil 2510 contract was 149.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31.20 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of spot profit, as of June 6, the spot profit of rebar was 80.98 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.48 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot profit of hot - rolled coil was 110.98 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.48 yuan/ton from the previous week [43] 2.5 Technical Analysis - This week, the price of the main iron ore contract I2509 first declined and then rose, closing at 707.5 yuan/ton. The short - term upper pressure level is around 802 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is around 640 yuan/ton [47]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [2] - CSI 1000: Upward [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: Strongly oscillating [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [6] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillating [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: On the sidelines [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views of the Report - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in the iron and steel industry is gradually weakening, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. The real demand for steel products continues to weaken, and the overall pattern of supply increase and demand decrease for the five major steel products persists. The decline in steel prices reduces the rigid demand for raw material procurement. The profitability rate of steel mills is currently high, and the temporary easing of Sino-US relations brings new restocking demand. However, the daily average pig iron output in the previous period decreased by 11,700 tons to 2.436 million tons, exceeding market expectations. The port inventory level of iron ore remains relatively high, exerting pressure on prices. In the long term, domestic demand is weak, and investors who have already entered short positions during the rebound caused by the easing of the trade conflict should continue to hold [2]. - The output of coking coal is at a high level, and the downstream restocking motivation is insufficient after the May Day holiday. The raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has reached a record high. As pig iron output declines and coking coal supply continues to increase, the far-month 09 contract will continue to weaken. For coke, as coking coal prices fall, the cost of coking enterprises' incoming coal decreases, and most enterprises remain profitable. However, steel mills have initiated a second round of price cuts on coking enterprises today, squeezing coking enterprises' profits. With the arrival of high-temperature weather in various regions, downstream demand weakens, the phenomenon of steel mills controlling production increases, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises rises. The overall inventory of coke has increased month-on-month, and the pattern of oversupply in the coking coal and coke market remains unchanged, generally following the trend of steel products [2]. - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in rebar is gradually weakening. The demand decline is relatively slow in the short term, and steel supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season will drag down terminal demand, and inventory destocking may slow down or even reverse in mid-June. Steel prices face periodic pressure. The profits of long-process steel mills have been repaired periodically, and the blast furnaces under maintenance have resumed production, keeping the supply at a high level. Domestic demand declines seasonally. Attention should be paid to the rush export demand brought about by the 90-day suspension of the 24% tariff. It is expected that steel prices will remain oscillating at a low level in the short term, waiting for a clear signal of demand decline [2]. - There are rumors in the market that glass manufacturers in Hubei plan to cut production, and production and sales have improved. Recently, some production lines have been restarted after cold repair, and the daily melting volume has fluctuated slightly. The daily output of float glass remained stable last week. The spot price of float glass has declined slightly, and profits have also been squeezed. The production enthusiasm of manufacturers in the Shahe area is relatively high, leading to a significant increase in inventory. Both the national manufacturers' inventory and the Shahe area have seen substantial inventory accumulation. The market sentiment of buying up but not buying down is strong, and downstream traders and processing enterprises are highly cautious. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and the year-on-year decline in housing completion area is relatively large, making it difficult for glass demand to recover significantly. As the peak season transitions to the off-season, the fundamentals lack the driving force for an upward trend. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [2]. - For stock index futures and options, on the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index closed down 0.57%, the SSE 50 index closed down 0.46%, the CSI 500 index closed up 0.29%, and the CSI 1000 index closed up 0.65%. Funds flowed into the leisure products and power generation equipment sectors, while flowing out of the pharmaceutical and automobile sectors. The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Modern Enterprise System with Chinese Characteristics," which proposes to improve the enterprise income distribution system, promote enterprises to establish a reasonable wage growth mechanism, deepen the reform of the wage distribution system of state-owned enterprises, implement the wage total budget cycle system in eligible state-owned enterprises, promote listed companies to carry out medium- and long-term incentives, formulate stable and long-term cash dividend policies, strengthen the fiduciary duties of controlling shareholders to the company, and support listed companies to introduce institutional investors with a shareholding ratio of more than 5% as active shareholders. Moody's has decided to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance stated that since the fourth quarter of last year, the Chinese government has implemented a package of macroeconomic control policies, leading to an improvement in economic indicators, stable market expectations and confidence, and enhanced medium- and long-term sustainability of debt. Moody's decision to maintain the stability of China's sovereign credit rating is a positive reflection of China's economic prospects. In the next step, a series of incremental and existing policies will work together and continue to show results, providing solid support for high-quality economic development. China will remain confident and focused on its own affairs regardless of external changes. The Sino-US tariff issue has achieved phased results, the external market has stabilized, market risk aversion has eased, and investors should hold long positions in stock indices [2][4]. - For Treasury bonds, the yield of the 10-year Chinese Treasury bond has decreased by 2 basis points, FR007 has increased by 7 basis points, and SHIBOR3M has remained unchanged. The central bank announced that on May 26, it conducted 382 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate through quantity tender, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, a bid volume of 382 billion yuan, and a winning volume of 382 billion yuan. According to Wind data, 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 247 billion yuan. The market interest rate is consolidating, and Treasury bonds are oscillating in a narrow range. Investors should hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - In the context of a high-interest-rate environment and the reconstruction of globalization, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to the central bank's gold purchases, which are the key and reflect the "decentralization" and risk aversion needs. In terms of its monetary attribute, the debt problem has caused cracks in the currency credit of the US dollar, highlighting the de-fiat currency attribute of gold in the process of de-dollarization. In terms of its financial attribute, in the global high-interest-rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero-coupon bond for bonds has weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has decreased. In terms of its risk aversion attribute, geopolitical risks have marginally weakened, but Trump's tariff policy has intensified global trade tensions, and market risk aversion remains strong, becoming an important factor driving up the gold price in the short term. In terms of its commodity attribute, the demand for physical gold in China has increased significantly, and the central bank has restarted gold purchases since November last year and has been increasing its holdings for six consecutive months. Currently, the logic driving up the gold price has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that this year's interest rate policy will be more cautious, and the evolution of the tariff policy will dominate the change in market risk aversion. According to the latest US data, the non-farm payrolls data shows that the labor market is relatively strong, with non-farm employment exceeding market expectations and the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%. The latest PCE data shows that inflation has slowed down, with core PCE rising 2.6% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, and PCE rising 2.3% year-on-year, slightly higher than market expectations. The CPI in April rose 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and indicating a continuous decline in inflation. However, inflation is expected to rise again under the influence of tariffs. In the short term, the uncertainty in the trade environment has raised concerns about the global economy, geopolitical risks continue to rise, and the risk aversion demand for gold remains strong. Coupled with the weak US dollar index, it supports the rise in the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will remain strongly oscillating. Attention should be paid to this week's PCE data and meeting minutes [4]. - The spot market price of pulp loosened slightly on the previous trading day, with the price of some softwood pulp in the spot market falling by 20 - 50 yuan/ton and that of some hardwood pulp loosening by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of softwood pulp has decreased by 55 US dollars to 770 US dollars/ton, and that of hardwood pulp has decreased by 70 US dollars to 560 US dollars/ton. The decline in the cost price weakens the support for pulp prices. The profitability of the papermaking industry is at a low level, paper mills' inventories continue to accumulate, and they are not willing to accept high-priced pulp, purchasing raw materials only based on rigid demand. The demand has entered the off-season, which is negative for pulp prices. Paper mills have successively issued price increase notices, which is beneficial for boosting industry sentiment. It is expected that pulp prices will oscillate [6]. - The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports last week was 62,100 cubic meters, an increase of 700 cubic meters month-on-month. The downstream has entered the off-season, and it is expected to be difficult to return to the level of 70,000 cubic meters. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in March was 1.659 million cubic meters, a 32% increase from the previous month. New Zealand has started to cut production, and the log shipment volume has decreased. It is expected that the domestic arrival volume will start to decrease. The expected arrival volume last week was 421,000 cubic meters, a 52% increase month-on-month. As of last week, the log port inventory was 3.43 million cubic meters, a 20,000-cubic-meter increase month-on-month. The spot market price has been relatively stable. The spot market price in Shandong has remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter, a 10-yuan decrease from last week, and that in Jiangsu has remained stable at 770 yuan/cubic meter, also a 10-yuan decrease from last week. The latest CFR quotation has decreased by 4 US dollars to 110 US dollars/cubic meter, and it is expected that the June quotation will remain the same. The negative impact on the cost side may weaken. In the short term, the spot market price is relatively stable, demand has improved month-on-month, the arrival volume in the past two weeks has been lower than the average level, and the supply pressure has relatively decreased. The fundamentals of the log market have marginally improved. It is expected that log prices will oscillate [6]. - The inventory of Malaysian palm oil jumped to a six-month high of 1.87 million metric tons in April due to a surge in production and a decline in domestic consumption, a 19.4% month-on-month increase. Indonesia has raised the export tax on palm oil, while Malaysia has lowered the export tax on crude palm oil in June. The price of Indonesian palm oil has lost its competitive edge compared to Malaysia, which is conducive to stimulating the export potential of Malaysian palm oil. However, Malaysian palm oil is in the seasonal production increase cycle, and the production increase is higher than the export increase, so inventory may continue to accumulate. The US biofuel policy still has great uncertainty. South American soybeans have achieved a record high yield, and the domestic arrival volume of soybeans has increased significantly. As the overall operating rate of oil mills has increased, the inventory of soybean oil has started to rise. Although the import profit of palm oil is still negative, palm oil purchases have increased, further replenishing domestic inventory. The supply of the three major oils is abundant. Currently, it is the traditional off-season for oil consumption, and the pre-Dragon Boat Festival stocking is about to end. It is expected that oil prices will oscillate bearishly. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - The new crop inventory of US soybeans may become even tighter, leaving less room for error during the critical summer growing season for US soybeans, whose sown area is already expected to decrease. Rainfall in the US Midwest has slowed down spring sowing, and there are concerns about soybean production cuts in Argentina due to heavy rain. The increase in the premium of Brazilian soybeans has driven up the cost of imported soybeans. The domestic arrival volume of soybeans in May has surged to about 11 million tons, and customs clearance has accelerated recently. With the large arrival of imported soybeans, the soybean supply situation has become more relaxed, and the overall operating rate of oil mills has recovered to over 50%. The inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the trading sentiment has improved after the continuous decline in the market. The spot trading volume has increased, and prices have stopped falling and stabilized, alleviating the domestic supply pressure. It is expected that soybean meal prices will oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in North America, the logistics delays in Brazil, and the soybean arrival situation [6]. - The Sino-US trade relations have eased, the USDA report is moderately positive, the export of new Brazilian soybeans has accelerated, and there are concerns about soybean production cuts in Argentina due to heavy rain. According to the shipping and berthing forecasts of major soybean-producing countries, the domestic soybean arrival volume is expected to be relatively large from May to June, exceeding 11 million tons each month. Soybean customs clearance has accelerated, and the soybean inventory has continued to rise. The overall operating rate of oil mills has recovered to over 50%, and the domestic soybean spot price has remained stable. It is expected that the price of No. 2 soybeans will oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean-producing areas and the soybean arrival situation [6]. - In terms of supply, the latest data shows that the average slaughter weight of live pigs across the country shows a slight upward trend, with an average trading weight of 126.5 kilograms, a 0.07% month-on-month increase. Regionally, the average trading weight in different provinces varies. Due to the adjustment of the procurement strategy of some local slaughter enterprises, which have reduced the purchase of large-weight pigs, and the decline in the inventory of large pigs after the previous concentrated slaughter, the average trading weight in some areas has decreased. On the other hand, most provinces' breeding farms still maintain the strategy of holding back pigs for weight gain, artificially extending the breeding cycle and driving up the slaughter weight. Slaughter enterprises' demand for standard-weight pigs of 125 - 140 kilograms remains stable, driving up the overall average purchase weight. In terms of demand, the average operating rate of key slaughter enterprises is 34.76%, a 0.18-percentage-point increase from last week. After the festival, the terminal consumption demand has declined seasonally, the downstream procurement and stocking enthusiasm has weakened, and there is no significant boost factor on the consumption side. It is expected that the operating rate of slaughter enterprises will remain oscillating or show a slight decline. After the festival, the consumption demand decreases cyclically, the procurement volume of terminal catering and households has decreased, and the sales of pork products have slowed down. Although it is the traditional off-season for consumption and the slaughter demand remains low, the strong demand for secondary fattening supports prices. It is expected that the live pig market will show a pattern of tight supply in May. The self-breeding and self-raising cost of leading enterprises is supported at around 13,000 yuan per head. There is no obvious upward driving force in the market, and it is expected that pig prices will remain oscillating [8]. - On the supply side, the weather disturbances in domestic and foreign rubber-producing areas have intensified, and rubber supply is under short-term pressure. Recently, there has been frequent rainfall in the main natural rubber-producing areas at home and abroad, significantly interfering with rubber tapping operations. The rainfall in the Southeast Asian producing areas is expected to increase in the coming week, and heavy rain is expected in Myanmar and the western part of Thailand (north of the equator), significantly restricting rubber tapping activities. The weather conditions in the producing areas south of the equator are relatively stable, with rainfall in the medium to low range, having limited impact on rubber tapping. As a result, the supply of rubber raw materials has tightened, and the purchase

Core Insights - The A-share core assets have shown strong performance since May, with the overall stock index maintaining a rebound trend, as evidenced by the Every Day Brand 100 Index closing at 1096.38 points, down 0.03% for the week [1][2] - Hong Kong stocks outperformed, with notable weekly gains from companies such as Orient Overseas International (6.92%), China Communications Services (4.31%), and Meituan (4.19%) [2][3] - Tencent Holdings, CATL, and Xiaomi Group saw their market values increase by over 50 billion yuan, with Tencent alone adding approximately 92.27 billion yuan in market value in one week [5] A-Share Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.46% for the week, while the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 Index experienced larger declines of 0.88% and 1.47% respectively [2] - The Every Day Brand 100 Index demonstrated relative resilience compared to major A-share indices, with a minimal decline [2] Hong Kong Market Highlights - The listing of CATL on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange marked a significant event, as it became the first domestic power battery company to be listed on both A-shares and H-shares, reflecting a shift in market perception towards H-shares [6] - The premium of CATL's H-shares over A-shares is approximately 10%, indicating a growing recognition of quality domestic assets by global investors [6] Automotive Sector Developments - The automotive ETF saw a weekly increase of 4.48%, driven by the strong performance of leading companies like CATL and BYD, which are enhancing the investment value of automotive-related ETFs [7][10] - The overall automotive market showed stable growth in production and sales compared to the previous year, supported by domestic demand and a stable export environment [7] Key Stocks in Automotive Index - Major constituents of the automotive index include BYD, Changan Automobile, and GAC Group, which collectively account for 30% of the index weight, highlighting their significance in the market [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene: With the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical's plant and the upcoming resumption of maintenance at CNOOC Huizhou and Jinxi Petrochemical, along with increased imports, social inventory is expected to rise, creating a bearish outlook for styrene. Currently, the supply of pure benzene exceeds demand, but some downstream products raised prices last week, and terminal inventory showed signs of reduction. Pure benzene production and imports are expected to increase, resulting in weak short - term prices and insufficient cost support for styrene [3][4]. - Styrene: The previous sharp rise in styrene has affected downstream industries. EPS, ABS, and PS are unable to raise prices in tandem, leading to compressed profits. Enterprises are under great operating pressure, and their willingness to purchase high - priced raw materials has declined. Although the easing of Sino - US trade relations is expected to benefit exports, the current losses make it difficult for the supply - demand situation to improve substantially. The positive news has been digested, and the price of upstream crude oil fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the potential weakening of the market due to the decline in pure benzene prices [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On May 21, the main styrene contract closed down 0.77% at 7,570 yuan/ton, with a basis of 256 yuan/ton (-14 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Cost**: On May 21, the main Brent crude oil contract closed at $62.0/barrel (-$0.1/barrel), the main WTI crude oil contract closed at $65.4/barrel (-$0.1/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,125 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 21.3 million tons (-1.9 million tons), a month - on - month decrease of 8.2%, and Jiangsu port inventory was 5.7 million tons (-1.2 million tons), a month - on - month decrease of 17.2%. Styrene inventory continued to decline, and spot liquidity tightened [2]. - **Supply**: The overhauled styrene plants are gradually resuming operation, with an expected increase in supply. Affected by the restart of some plants, the weekly styrene output decreased 1.29% month - on - month to 32.65 million tons (-0.42 million tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate was 71.3% (-0.9%) [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream 3S products varied. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 62.3% (+15.0%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 67.4% (-1.6%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 57.1% (+0.8%), showing a significant rebound [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices of Styrene and Pure Benzene**: From May 20 to May 21, the price of the styrene futures main contract increased 0.05%, the spot price decreased 1.09%, and the basis decreased 5.19%. Among pure benzene prices, the price in East China increased 0.41%, the South Korean FOB price increased 0.14%, the US FOB price decreased 0.42%, and the Chinese CFR price increased 0.27%. The pure benzene internal - CFR spread increased 2.07%, and the East China - Shandong spread increased 50.00%. The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha all decreased slightly [6]. - **Output and Inventory of Styrene and Pure Benzene**: From May 9 to May 16, the styrene output in China decreased 1.29% to 32.6 million tons, and the pure benzene output decreased 2.94% to 39.0 million tons. The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased 17.23% to 5.7 million tons, the domestic styrene factory inventory decreased 8.17% to 21.3 million tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased 2.50% to 12.3 million tons [7]. - **Operating Rates**: From May 9 to May 16, the capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased 0.93% to 71.3%, the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam increased 0.07% to 83.8%, the capacity utilization rate of phenol increased 3.00% to 78.0%, and the capacity utilization rate of aniline decreased 6.44% to 68.9%. Among styrene downstream products, the EPS capacity utilization rate increased 14.96% to 62.3%, the ABS capacity utilization rate decreased 1.61% to 67.4%, and the PS capacity utilization rate increased 0.80% to 57.1% [8]. 3.3 Industry News - China's gold imports in April soared 73%, reaching an 11 - month high - The demand for the 20 - year US Treasury bond auction was weak, with yields on both 20 - year and 30 - year bonds rising above 5%, causing a sharp decline in US stocks - Anderson's CEO Bill Krueger said that if foreign raw materials are excluded, the mandatory biodiesel blending volume is expected to be 4.6 - 4.8 billion gallons, far lower than the previous expectation of 5.5 - 5.75 billion gallons - China and the ten ASEAN countries have completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area Version 3.0 [9] 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene spreads, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, PS inventory, EPS inventory, caprolactam weekly capacity utilization rate, phenol weekly capacity utilization rate, and aniline weekly capacity utilization rate [10][18][29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The unexpected easing of Sino-US trade relations has led to an upward revision of iron ore valuation. With the suspension of 90-day (24% reciprocal tariffs), the market has adjusted its expectations of declining exports. Iron ore is in a pattern of high demand, high discounts, and inventory reduction, resulting in greater price elasticity [3]. - In the short term, the trading focus tends to be on strong reality and sentiment repair. With the domestic macro - policy in a vacuum and weak expectations of incremental policies, the market is expected to be more dominated by macro - sentiment repair, and the influence of fundamentals will decrease [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The supply of foreign mines has increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. In May, it is the peak season for foreign mine shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady and rising shipment trend, with the supporting force on the supply side gradually weakening [3]. Demand - Domestic demand is at a historically high level. Iron water production has declined to 244.8 (-0.87) on a month - on - month basis, indicating a short - term peak in demand. However, with a high profit rate for steel mills and an upward - revised export expectation, iron water production is expected to decline at a high level with a gentle slope, having a small impact on prices in the short term [4]. Inventory - Given the high domestic demand in May, port inventory is expected to remain stable or decline. However, the overall inventory is at a high level, and the phased inventory reduction at a high level cannot provide upward momentum [5]. Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. The market will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the price center shifting upward periodically. The pressure range for the i2509 contract is 720 - 750 yuan/ton, and the price range for the outer - market FE06 contract is 98 - 102 US dollars/ton [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the unexpected easing of Sino - US trade relations, the short - term trading focus tends to trade strong reality and emotional repair. With the short - term domestic macro - policy in a complete vacuum, the expectation of incremental policies is weak, demand has basically peaked, and as the supply side continues to recover, it is expected to be more dominated by macro - emotional repair in the short term, with the influence of fundamentals decreasing [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - The unexpected easing of Sino - US trade relations has led to an upward revision of the valuation of the black series. The suspension of 90 - day (24% reciprocal tariffs) has strengthened the behavior of seizing exports to the US, and the market has revised its expectation of export decline. The price of the black series has risen collectively, and the price of iron ore has rebounded more strongly due to high demand, high discount, and inventory depletion [3]. Supply - The overall shipment of foreign mines is stable, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. May is the peak season for foreign mine shipments, and the shipments of mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, with the supporting force on the supply side weakening marginally [3]. Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level in the same historical period. The hot metal has decreased to 244.8 (- 0.87) month - on - month, indicating a short - term peak in demand. However, the profitability rate of steel mills is high and the export expectation has been revised upwards. It is expected that the hot metal will decline at a high level with a relatively low downward slope, and the short - term impact on prices is small [3]. Inventory - Given the current high domestic demand level, the port inventory in May will remain relatively stable or tend to be depleted. However, the overall inventory is at a high level, and the phased de - stocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward driving force [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range operations, with the overall price still in a range - bound pattern and the price center shifting upwards periodically. The price pressure range of the i2509 contract is 720 - 750 yuan/ton, and the price range of the foreign FE06 contract is 98 - 102 US dollars/ton [4].

Market Review - From May 12 to 16, the Wande All A index closed at 5107.73, up 0.72% from May 9, while the China Convertible Bond Index rose 0.32%[9] - The significant reduction in tariffs and the "fund reallocation" narrative drove market performance, particularly in the shipping sector, which saw the Wande Shipping Index and Port Index increase by 7.64% and 4.62%, respectively[12][15] - The U.S. and China agreed to significantly lower tariffs, with China's tariffs on U.S. imports dropping from 125% to 10% and the U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports decreasing from 145% to 30%[12] Global Insights - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions boosted global risk appetite, leading to a substantial rise in U.S. stock markets, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones increasing by 7.15%, 5.27%, and 3.41%, respectively[32] - Gold prices fell by 4.7% to $3187.2 per ounce, nearing pre-tariff levels, while U.S. Treasury yields rose, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets[32][34] Strategy Recommendations - The market is expected to adopt a defensive posture, focusing on dividend stocks and sectors like consumption and technology, as volatility remains low[36][40] - The consumer sector is gaining traction, with a moderate increase in trading volume, while the technology sector is currently underperforming but may present mid-term opportunities[42][43] Convertible Bond Insights - Convertible bonds have seen a decline in valuation, particularly in equity-linked bonds, as the market remains focused on large-cap stocks[25] - The valuation for convertible bonds at an 80 yuan parity is 46.27%, while at 100 yuan parity, it is 26.09%, reflecting a slight decrease in market confidence[25][30]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of mutual tariff adjustments between China and the U.S. has led to a significant surge in container bookings from China to the U.S., resulting in increased shipping rates and potential supply chain disruptions [1][2]. Group 1: Container Booking Surge - Container bookings from China to the U.S. have skyrocketed, with a 277% increase in the seven-day average bookings as of May 14, compared to the previous week [1][2]. - Shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd reported a 50% increase in container bookings from China to the U.S. in recent days [2]. Group 2: Impact on Shipping Rates - The shipping rates for the route from Shanghai to Los Angeles have surged, with Maersk's quote for a sailing on May 26 reaching $3,705 per FEU, a 96% increase from May 12 [1][5]. - The non-contract spot freight rate from Shanghai to Los Angeles rose by 16% to $3,136 per 40-foot container as of May 15 [3]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Capacity Issues - Experts predict that the surge in shipping volume will lead to a significant number of vessels arriving at U.S. West Coast ports, but they do not anticipate a crisis on the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic [3]. - Many factories are unable to fulfill new orders within 90 days, leading to cautious strategies among businesses due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs [4]. Group 4: Future Projections - The shipping industry anticipates that the "bottleneck" in U.S. shipping will persist until late July, with potential adjustments in capacity from European routes to meet U.S. demand [1][6]. - Shipping companies are beginning to shift capacity back to U.S. routes, but full recovery of capacity may take 1 to 2 weeks [6].