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行业景气观察:10月PPI降幅持续收窄,新能源产业链价格普遍上涨
CMS· 2025-11-12 14:01
Core Insights - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive year-on-year at 0.2%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of 2.1%, indicating a recovery trend in prices driven by improved consumer demand and supply-side adjustments [12][23][24] - The "anti-involution" policy continues to promote supply clearance, leading to price improvements in key sectors such as coal, new energy, and automotive industries [20][23] Industry Overview Resource Sector - Prices for most metals and coal have increased, contributing to a positive outlook for the resource sector [1][20] - The PPI for coal mining and washing narrowed its decline to -15.6%, while the PPI for non-metallic mining improved to a growth of 2.1% [20][24] Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index remained stable, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index declined by 2.15%. The DXI Index increased by 36.37% [25][26] - The import and export values of integrated circuits showed a rolling year-on-year decline, indicating a mixed performance in the semiconductor sector [25][26] Midstream Manufacturing - The prices across the new energy supply chain have generally risen, with significant increases in the prices of lithium raw materials and electrolytic nickel [20][24] - The production and sales of automobiles showed a rolling year-on-year decline, while new energy vehicle production increased by 21.37% [20][24] Consumer Services - The prices of fresh vegetables and fruits improved, contributing positively to the CPI, while the prices of pork and liquor continued to exert downward pressure [14][15][23] - The tourism and medical service sectors saw price increases due to heightened consumer demand during the holiday season [15][23] Financial and Real Estate - The monetary market experienced a net withdrawal, with a decline in A-share turnover rates and daily transaction volumes [24] - The land transaction premium rates and the area of commodity housing transactions both decreased, indicating a cooling real estate market [24] Public Utilities - The ex-factory price of natural gas in China decreased, and the average daily power generation of key power plants showed a widening year-on-year decline [24][32]
宝城期货煤焦早报-20251107
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 01:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2. Report's Core View - The report suggests a volatile trading approach for both coking coal and coke futures. For coking coal, the market is influenced by a mix of factors, resulting in a volatile trend. For coke, after the third round of price increases, it is expected to trade in a high - level volatile range [1][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Short - term view is volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and intraday view is slightly bullish. The overall view is a volatile trading approach due to a balance of long and short factors [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Short - term view is volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and intraday view is slightly bullish. The overall view is a volatile trading approach as the third round of price increases has been implemented, leading to high - level volatility [1] 3.2 Price and Market Analysis - **Coking Coal**: On the night of November 6, coking coal futures traded in a narrow range with a decrease in open interest. The latest price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1435.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.24%. The upward drive comes from anti - cut - throat competition and improved Sino - US trade relations. After the macro - level positive factors are realized, the market shows more long - short competition, and the futures are trading near the upper limit of the volatile range [5] - **Coke**: The third round of price increases for coke was fully implemented on November 5. The latest price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.18%, and the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port is 1570 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%. Overall, coke supply is stable, demand is declining, and the fundamentals are weakening. After the previous macro - level positive factors are realized, the market sentiment has cooled, and the futures are trading within the volatile range since the end of July [6]
多空僵持,煤焦高位震荡:煤焦日报-20251106
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 10:26
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On November 6, 2025, the coke main contract closed at 1,776.5 yuan/ton, up 2.07% intraday. The position of the main contract was 38,200 lots, with a difference of -248 lots from the previous trading day. The coke supply stabilized while the demand declined, and the fundamentals weakened marginally. After the previous macro - positive factors were realized, the market sentiment cooled down, and the coke futures adjusted at a high level, running within the oscillation range since the end of July [6][34]. - On November 6, 2025, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,290.5 points, up 2.38% intraday. The position of the main contract was 674,603 lots, with a difference of +30,130 lots from the previous trading day. Recently, the supply - demand pattern of coking coal had no obvious change, and the upward driving force mainly came from the emotional support brought by anti - involution and the easing of Sino - US trade relations. As the macro - positive factors were realized, the long - short game in the market intensified, and the coking coal futures ran near the upper edge of the oscillation range. The subsequent focus was on the actual impact of safety supervision and anti - involution on coking coal supply [6][34]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Industry News - In October 2025, the bond financing of the real estate industry was 51.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 76.9%. Affected by the low base in the same period of the previous year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises in October increased significantly, with only 28.97 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year [8]. - On November 6, the online auction price of coking coal in the Lvliang Xiaoyi market increased slightly. The starting price of high - sulfur main coking coal in Xiaoyi was 1,220 yuan/ton, with 25,000 tons listed and all sold. The average transaction price was 1,366 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton compared with November 3 [9]. 2. Spot Market - For coke, the current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class flat - closing coke was 1,620 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.18%, a monthly increase of 3.18%, an annual decrease of 4.14%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.29%. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - class outbound coke was 1,570 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.64%, a monthly increase of 1.29%, an annual decrease of 3.09%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.80% [10]. - For coking coal, the current price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,435 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.24%, a monthly increase of 3.24%, an annual increase of 21.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.03%. The current price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,670 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.60%, a monthly increase of 0.60%, an annual increase of 12.08%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.18%. The current price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,800 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.45%, a monthly increase of 3.45%, an annual increase of 17.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.27% [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke active contract was 1,776.5 yuan/ton, up 2.07%, with a maximum price of 1,785.0 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 1,746.5 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 18,410 lots, a volume difference of -697 lots, a position of 38,200 lots, and a position difference of -248 lots [13]. - The closing price of the coking coal active contract was 1,290.5 points, up 2.38%, with a maximum price of 1,294.5 points, a minimum price of 1,265.0 points, a trading volume of 915,849 lots, a volume difference of 107,901 lots, a position of 674,603 lots, and a position difference of 30,130 lots [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report presented various charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including those of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total inventories, as well as other charts such as domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, and coking - plant and coal - washing - plant operation conditions [14][27][32] 5. Future Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal futures was consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current price, position changes, and the impact of supply - demand and macro - factors on the market, and suggesting to focus on the impact of safety supervision and anti - involution on coking coal supply [34]
宁证期货今日早评-20251106
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:04
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The international oil price continues to decline due to increased US crude oil inventories, and it will remain under pressure for the rest of the year, with the oversupply pressure slightly easing in Q1 next year [1]. - Gold may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term and has limited downside space in the short term, affected by the US government shutdown, Sino - US relations, and the high - level US dollar index [2]. - Synthetic rubber will run weakly due to supply increments and demand - side constraints [4]. - PTA has weak fundamental drivers with clear supply increments, stable demand, and a slightly accumulating balance sheet [4]. - Iron ore prices have limited upside space under the background of loose supply and pressured demand [5]. - Coking coal's upward drive weakens after the macro - level positive factors are realized [5]. - Steel prices are expected to decline slightly in the short term due to approaching off - season and potential supply contractions [6]. - Live hog prices may still decline after a rebound due to large supply pressure and unchanged terminal demand [6]. - Palm oil will run weakly in the short term due to unexpectedly high production in Malaysia and weak domestic demand [7]. - Rapeseed meal prices have a lower risk of decline due to supply shortages, and a callback - buying strategy is recommended [8]. - Silver will oscillate with a bullish bias due to positive economic data in the US and pressure from the rising US dollar index [8]. - Long - term treasury bonds will oscillate with a bullish bias in the medium term due to economic pressure and positive factors from the central bank [9]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. - Caustic soda's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - As of October 31, US total crude oil inventories (including strategic reserves) were 830.763 million barrels, an increase of 5.7 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude inventories were 421.168 million barrels, an increase of 5.2 million barrels; gasoline inventories were 206.009 million barrels, a decrease of 4.73 million barrels [1]. - US daily crude oil production was 13.651 million barrels as of October 31, an increase of 7,000 barrels from the previous week and 151,000 barrels from the same period last year [1]. Gold - The US federal government shutdown has entered its 36th day, breaking the previous record, and may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points [2]. Synthetic Rubber - From January to October 2025, domestic butadiene production was 4.472 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.5%; in October, the production was 457,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.47% [4]. - In October, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%, with a capacity utilization rate of 71.39% [4]. PTA - The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 14 - 24 days, with POY at 14 - 23 days, FDY at 12 - 22 days, and DTY at 13 - 25 days [4]. Iron Ore - From October 27 to November 2, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 3.3141 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2298 million tons [5]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 37.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%; the daily output of clean coal was 275,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; and the clean coal inventory was 2.95 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,000 tons [5]. Steel - As of a certain period, the national building materials social inventory was 638,400 tons, an increase of 2,180 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory was 347,750 tons, a decrease of 8,350 tons; and the production was 397,070 tons, an increase of 1,470 tons [6]. Live Hogs - On November 5, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.19 yuan/kg, a 0.9% increase from the previous day [6]. Palm Oil - In October, Malaysia's crude palm oil production was 2.07 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.31%, reaching an eight - year high [7]. Rapeseed Meal - As of the 44th week of 2025, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions of China was 514,800 tons, a decrease of 16,600 tons from the previous week [8]. Silver - The US October ISM services PMI rose 2.4 points to 52.4, the new orders index jumped 5.8 points to 56.2, the service payment price index rose to 70, and the employment index rose to 48.2 [8]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - China's October S&P services PMI was 52.6 (previous value 52.9), and the composite PMI was 51.8 (previous value 52.5) [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1,261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous day; the weekly production was 757,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%; and the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.702 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01% [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,082 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the domestic weekly methanol capacity utilization rate was 86.73%, an increase of 1.09%; the downstream total capacity utilization rate was 75.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%; the port sample inventory was 1.5171 million tons, an increase of 10,600 tons; and the sample enterprise production inventory was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons [10]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 84.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%; the inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 442,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.84% [11].
宝城期货煤焦早报-20251106
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 01:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both coking coal and coke 2601, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with an overall "oscillation" reference view [1]. - The coking coal market has a divergence between bulls and bears, and the coking coal price moves in an oscillatory range. The coke market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the coke price also moves in an oscillatory manner [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Change**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1415.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.80% [5]. - **Market Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal has no obvious change recently. The upward driving force comes from anti - involution and the emotional support brought by the easing of Sino - US trade relations. After the macro - level positive factors are realized, the market atmosphere has cooled down, and the coking coal futures have pulled back at the upper limit of the oscillatory range. Future attention should be paid to the actual impact of safety supervision and anti - involution on coking coal supply [5]. Coke (J) - **Price and Change**: The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1570 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1570 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.64% [6]. - **Market Logic**: Overall, the coke supply is stable, the demand is declining, and the fundamentals are weakening marginally. After the previous macro - level positive factors are realized, the market atmosphere has cooled down. The coke futures have pulled back from the high level and are moving within the oscillatory range since the end of July [6].
宝城期货煤焦早报-20251105
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 02:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively, suggesting an oscillation trading approach. The core logic is that the optimistic market atmosphere has cooled, leading to a high - level correction of coking coal [1][5]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "decline" respectively, also suggesting an oscillation trading approach. The core logic is that after the game between bulls and bears, coke is oscillating within a range [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1415.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.80% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal has no significant change. The upward driving force mainly comes from the anti - involution and the emotional support brought by the easing of Sino - US trade relations. After the macro - level positive factors are realized, the market atmosphere has cooled, and the coking coal futures have corrected at the upper edge of the oscillation range. Future focus should be on the actual impact of safety supervision and anti - involution on coking coal supply [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1570 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1560 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Overall, the supply of coke has stabilized, the demand has declined, and the fundamentals have weakened marginally. After the previous macro - level positive factors are realized, the market atmosphere has cooled, and the coke futures have corrected at a high level, running within the oscillation range since the end of July [6].
宝城期货煤焦早报(2025年11月4日)-20251104
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 02:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For both Jiao Coal (JM) and Coke (J) in the 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias". The overall reference view is an "oscillation approach" [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Jiao Coal (JM) - **Price行情驱动逻辑**: As of the week ending October 31, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 75.8 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 0.3 thousand tons per day, and 2.2 thousand tons per day lower than the same period last year. From October 20th to 25th, the total number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 - port was 4,814, a weekly decrease of 2,406 trucks. Due to the political turmoil in Mongolia in the middle of the month, the customs clearance efficiency dropped significantly, but it has returned to normal this week, with the daily number of trucks increasing to about 1,200. On the demand side, as of the week ending October 31, the total daily average output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110.8 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.08 thousand tons. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of Jiao Coal has no significant change. The upward driving force mainly comes from the macro - level benefits brought by the relaxation of Sino - US trade relations, as well as the strong expectations of safety supervision and anti - involution on Jiao Coal supply [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - **Price行情驱动逻辑**: As of the week ending October 31, the total daily average output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110.8 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.08 thousand tons. After the second round of price increase of coke was implemented, the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants monitored by Steel Union was - 32 yuan/ton, a weekly improvement of 9 yuan, but still in a loss state, and the production enthusiasm has not significantly improved. The coking enterprises still have the intention to raise prices. On the demand side, the daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 236.36 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 3.54 thousand tons per day, and the profitability rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02%. Overall, the supply of coke is stable, the demand is declining, and the fundamentals are marginally weakening. However, during the week, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders reached multiple economic and trade consensuses, and the cooling of trade frictions has improved the market sentiment, so the coke futures temporarily maintain high - level operation [6].
多空僵持,煤焦震荡运行:煤焦日报-20251103
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 10:04
Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: As of the week ending October 31, the total daily coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.108 million tons, with a slight weekly increase of 800 tons. After the second round of coke price hikes, the per - ton coke profit of 30 independent coking plants was - 32 yuan/ton, improving by 9 yuan week - on - week but still in a loss. Demand side, the daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, down 35,400 tons/day week - on - week, and the profitability rate dropped by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02%. Overall, coke supply stabilized while demand declined, but due to the Sino - US summit consensus, the coke futures remained high [6][35]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending October 31, the daily output of clean coking coal from 523 coking coal mines was 758,000 tons, down 3,000 tons/day week - on - week and 22,000 tons/day lower than the same period last year. From October 20th to 25th, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 - port was 4,814 vehicles, down 2,406 vehicles week - on - week. Now, the port has returned to normal with a daily customs - clearance vehicle number of around 1,200. The total daily coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.108 million tons, with a slight weekly increase of 800 tons. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of coking coal did not change significantly, and the upward drive came from macro - level benefits due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and strong expectations for coking coal supply from safety inspections and anti - cut - throat competition [7][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry News - **Fed's Interest - Rate Stance**: Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocated for a rate cut in December, worried about the labor market slowdown, which contrasted with other Fed officials' warnings about inflation risks [9]. - **Coking Coal Price**: On November 3, the coking coal price in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur prime coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) at 1,600 yuan/ton cash - inclusive [10]. 2. Spot Market - **Coke**: The current price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1,570 yuan/ton, up 3.29% week - on - week; Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1,560 yuan/ton, up 4.70% week - on - week [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimao Port was 1,390 yuan/ton, up 6.11% week - on - week; Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,660 yuan/ton, up 1.22% week - on - week; Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,740 yuan/ton, with no weekly change [11]. 3. Futures Market - **Coke**: The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,771.5, down 1.17, with a trading volume of 21,422 and an open interest of 39,630 [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract was 1,284.5, down 0.85, with a trading volume of 1,020,691 and an open interest of 669,763 [14]. 5. Future Outlook - **Coke**: The supply stabilized and demand declined, but due to Sino - US trade relations improvement, the coke futures remained high [6][35]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply - demand pattern did not change significantly, and the upward drive came from macro - level benefits and supply - side expectations [7][36].
宝城期货煤焦早报(2025年11月3日)-20251103
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 03:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are shock, shock, and shock - biased - strong respectively, with a shock - based approach. It is supported by strong expectations and shows high - level shocks [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are shock, shock, and shock - biased - strong respectively, with a shock - based approach. It is supported by strong costs and operates at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - **Core Logic**: As of the week ending October 31, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 75.8 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 0.3 thousand tons per day, basically stable, and 2.2 thousand tons per day lower than the same period last year. From October 20th to 25th, the total number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 port was 4,814, a weekly decrease of 2,406 trucks. Due to the political turmoil in Mongolia in the middle of the month, the customs clearance efficiency dropped significantly in the short term, but it has returned to normal this week, with the daily number of trucks increasing to around 1,200. On the demand side, as of the week ending October 31, the total daily average output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110.8 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.08 thousand tons. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of coking coal has no obvious change, and the upward drive mainly comes from the macro - level benefits brought by the relaxation of Sino - US trade relations, as well as the strong expectations for coking coal supply due to safety inspections and anti - cut - throat competition [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - **Core Logic**: As of the week ending October 31, the total daily average output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110.8 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.08 thousand tons. After the second round of price increases for coke, the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants monitored by Steel Union was - 32 yuan/ton, an improvement of 9 yuan week - on - week, but still in a loss state, and the production enthusiasm has not significantly improved, with coking enterprises still having the intention to raise prices. On the demand side, the daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 236.36 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 3.54 thousand tons per day, and the profitability rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02%. Overall, the coke supply is stable, the demand is declining, and the fundamentals are marginally weakening. However, during the week, the Chinese and US presidents met and reached multiple economic and trade consensuses, and the cooling of trade frictions has improved the market sentiment, so coke futures temporarily maintain high - level operation [6].
成本强支撑,焦炭高位震荡:煤焦日报-20251031
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 11:32
Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Coke: As of the week ending October 31, the total daily coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.108 million tons, with a slight weekly increase of 800 tons. After the second round of coke price hikes, the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 32 yuan/ton, a weekly improvement of 9 yuan but still in a loss state. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.3636 million tons, a significant weekly decrease of 35,400 tons per day, and the profitability rate dropped by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02%. Coke supply stabilized while demand declined, but due to the Sino - US summit and improved market sentiment, coke futures remained at a high level [6][35]. - Coking coal: As of the week ending October 31, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 758,000 tons, a slight weekly decrease of 3,000 tons per day. From October 20th to 25th, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port was 4,814 vehicles, a weekly decrease of 2,406 vehicles. The port has now returned to normal with a daily clearance of about 1,200 vehicles. The total daily coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.108 million tons, with a slight weekly increase of 800 tons. The supply - demand pattern of coking coal had no significant change, and the upward drive came from macro - level benefits of Sino - US trade relations and strong expectations of supply due to safety supervision and anti - involution [7][36]. Summary by Directory Industry News - China Iron and Steel Association: In the first three quarters, China's steel exports increased year - on - year, but the pressure and risks also increased as the global trade environment tightened [9]. - Mongolia's ETT Company: On October 31, it held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking clean coal was $95.7/ton, up $5.3/ton from the previous auction on September 25th. All 19,200 tons were sold at $117.7/ton, up $17.3/ton from the previous auction [10]. Spot Market - Coke: The current price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port's FOB was 1,570 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.29%, a monthly increase of 6.80%, and an annual decrease of 7.10%. At Qingdao Port's ex - warehouse, it was 1,560 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.70%, a monthly increase of 6.85%, and an annual decrease of 3.70% [11]. - Coking coal: The current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,390 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.11%, a monthly increase of 8.59%, and an annual increase of 17.80%. Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,660 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.22%, a monthly increase of 3.11%, and an annual increase of 11.41%. Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,740 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly increase of 1.75%, and an annual increase of 13.73% [11]. Futures Market - Coke: The closing price of the active contract was 1,777.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.11%. The highest price was 1,818.5 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,770.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 20,417, an increase of 935, and the open interest was 39,453, a decrease of 289 [14]. - Coking coal: The closing price of the active contract was 1,286.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.92%. The highest price was 1,318.0 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,276.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,034,091, a decrease of 25,967, and the open interest was 673,751, a decrease of 18,594 [14]. 后市 Judgment - Coke: The supply of coke stabilized while demand declined, but due to the Sino - US summit and improved market sentiment, coke futures remained at a high level [6][35]. - Coking coal: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal had no significant change, and the upward drive came from macro - level benefits of Sino - US trade relations and strong expectations of supply due to safety supervision and anti - involution [7][36].