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邮储银行2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:营收结构优化,负债优势稳固
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price based on the last closing price of 5.36 [1] Core Views - The report highlights the optimization of revenue structure and the solid advantage in liabilities for the company [1] - The company demonstrated revenue resilience with a slight increase in operating income and net profit for 2024, while Q1 2025 showed a minor decline [4][5] - The company maintains a strong net interest margin and has effectively optimized its asset allocation, leading to significant investment income growth [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved operating income of 348.775 billion yuan and net profit of 86.479 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 1.83% and 0.24% respectively [4] - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating income of 89.363 billion yuan and net profit of 25.246 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -0.07% and -2.62% respectively [4] - The annualized weighted ROE for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 9.84% and 11.33%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous year [4] Revenue and Profitability Insights - The company’s revenue showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 1.83% in 2024, while Q1 2025 experienced a slight decline of 0.07% [5] - The net interest income for Q1 2025 was 68.857 billion yuan, down 3.79% year-on-year, influenced by asset repricing and adjustments in the asset-liability structure [5] - Investment income for Q1 2025 was 10.149 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.81% increase year-on-year due to improved asset trading capabilities [5] Asset Quality and Risk Management - As of the end of 2024, the company’s non-performing loan ratio was 0.90%, slightly increasing to 0.91% by Q1 2025, indicating stable asset quality [6] - The provision coverage ratio was 266.13% at the end of Q1 2025, demonstrating strong risk mitigation capabilities [6] Future Earnings Forecast - Projected operating income for 2024-2026 is 352.843 billion yuan, 365.678 billion yuan, and 382.307 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 87.717 billion yuan, 90.150 billion yuan, and 93.341 billion yuan [6] - The book value per share (BVPS) is expected to grow from 9.04 yuan in 2025 to 11.28 yuan in 2027, with price-to-book (PB) ratios decreasing from 0.59 to 0.48 [6]