Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the 3500-point mark in the A-share market, highlighting the mixed emotions of excitement and anxiety among investors as the index approaches this historical level [2][4][5]. Market Sentiment - The A-share market has experienced prolonged periods below the 3500-point mark, leading many investors to doubt the possibility of a sustained bull market [4][5]. - The historical context of the A-share market includes two notable bull markets in 2007 and 2015, contrasting with the long periods of stagnation [2][4]. Understanding Market Dynamics - The article critiques the traditional view of "bulls" and "bears," suggesting that true market dynamics are influenced more by capital flow than by emotional trading behaviors [6][9]. - A key perspective presented is that actions such as large shareholder sell-offs or corporate financing that withdraw capital from the market are the real "bears" [8][9]. Capital Flow Analysis - The A-share market has historically been a "financing market," where the capital raised through financing has often exceeded the dividends paid to shareholders, leading to a net outflow of funds [12][14]. - Data shows that in 2016, financing amounts reached nearly 1 trillion, indicating significant capital withdrawal from the market [12]. Recent Trends in Dividends and Financing - Recent years have seen a shift where dividends paid to shareholders are beginning to exceed financing activities, with the dividend payout ratio increasing from around 30% to over 45% [21][24]. - This trend is viewed as a positive development for the market's stability and long-term growth potential [22][24]. Future Market Outlook - The article posits that for a sustained bull market ("slow bull") to materialize, the inflow of capital through dividends must consistently surpass the outflow from financing [21][24]. - The establishment of a regular and large-scale share buyback mechanism is deemed crucial for reinforcing market stability and supporting long-term growth [24]. Conclusion on Market Stability - The current market environment, characterized by a trend of dividends exceeding financing, is seen as a foundational change that could lead to a more stable market, despite the potential for short-term volatility [25].