近日，由证券时报社主办的第十九届上市公司价值评选专家评审会在深圳顺利召开。来自上海证券交易 所、深圳证券交易所、北京证券交易所、中证中小投资者服务中心、中国上市公司协会，以及买方机构 与卖方研究所的专家评委出席会议。各位评委从市值、成长性、投资者回报、公司治理、高管诚信、舆 情风险等维度，对候选公司审慎检视，提出有益建议。 多位参会专家表示看好中国资产重估。南方基金副总裁、基金经理史博认为，海外中长期资金增加对中 国资产的配置比例处于起始阶段，增配空间很大，中国资产值得全球投资者长期重视。红土创新基金总 经理冀洪涛认为，赴港上市热潮有望推动中国核心资产估值修复，推动科技股估值水平与国际接轨。参 会专家还围绕各行业"反内卷"行动下的投资机会等多个议题进行深入讨论。 专家评审会是"上市公司价值评选"体现科学性、专业性和公信力的重要环节。作为资本市场一年一度的 盛事，上市公司价值评选活动已成功举办至第十九届，见证了资本市场的跌宕起伏与蓬勃发展。价值评 选活动始终坚守初心，致力于挖掘治理透明、业绩突出、运营高效、成长卓越的优质企业，为投资者提 供投资参考，促进资本市场繁荣发展。 在专家研讨会环节，参会评委围绕去年"9 ...

证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 A 股策略周报 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 08 日 偏多震荡相互拉扯，战略认慢牛、战术细操作 ——A 股市场运行周报第 61 期 核心观点 国庆节前两个交易日，主要宽基指数多数收涨。从国庆期间外盘表现看，欧美、日韩 整体上涨，港股、A50 指数小幅下跌（截止 10 月 8 日 10:00），预计 A 股节后开盘大 概率是震荡格局。展望后市，我们推测上证指数有两种运行路径：一是直接突破前高， 形成日线 5 浪结构；二是先进行区间震荡，此后再行突破。基于"战略看多 A 股走势， 战术执行细化操作"的判断，我们建议：若遇到上证指数回踩震荡区间下沿，则以逢 低增配为主，依旧中线看多做多。行业配置方面，建议绝对收益资金重点关注有补涨 需求的券商板块（尤其是年线附近品种），同时盯紧近期走势稳健、利好频出的地产板 块（后续可延伸至基建工程）；考虑双创指数目前高风险、高收益特征，建议相对收益 资金采取"三项对策"：一是采取上升趋势线或相关均线作为操作依据；二是区分中、 短仓位，短线仓缩短操作周期；三是在科技板块内"高切低"，不断发掘年线附近的补 涨品种。 ❑ 上周（20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is gradually showing a slow bull trend one year after the "924" policy was introduced, but it remains in a value trap due to underlying economic challenges [1][2]. Economic Fundamentals - The current Chinese economy is in a downward cycle, with significant fiscal pressure on local governments and a severe employment situation, making it difficult for the fundamentals to provide effective support [1]. - The total social financing in China is heavily reliant on bank loans, which amount to approximately 36 trillion yuan, indicating a low proportion of direct financing from the capital market [1]. Market Liquidity - The coordination efficiency between the central bank and the securities regulatory commission has significantly improved, with the central financial committee playing a key role in injecting ample liquidity into the market [2]. - Despite a rebound of about 800 points from the market's low, systemic optimization of the institutional framework is necessary to avoid resistance to further market growth [2]. Institutional Reforms - The issue of major shareholder reductions is identified as a core bottleneck affecting market confidence and long-term healthy development [2]. - There are over 5,400 listed companies in the A-share market with a total share capital of approximately 77 trillion shares, of which over 90% are tradable [2]. Shareholder Behavior - Current major shareholders are criticized for focusing on reducing their holdings rather than improving company operations, which undermines the original intent of the capital market to serve the real economy [3]. - A warning is issued regarding the potential market crash if major shareholders are allowed to reduce their holdings indiscriminately, with an estimated funding requirement of about 15 trillion yuan for comprehensive reductions [3].

文/李悦 "9·24"行情一周年之际，A股再现强势，创业板指盘中再创3年多新高，科创50指数一度涨近5%， 全市场超4400只个股上涨。 过了"9·24"，国庆节假期就在眼前，A股市场将步入关键窗口期。国庆节前后A股市场有何"日历效 应"？ 从历史规律看，A股市场在国庆长假前后存在明显的"日历效应"。 根据过去10年数据统计，国庆节 前A股通常面临调整。过去10年国庆节前5个交易日上证指数中位数跌幅达1.45%，有8年在前5个交 易日下跌，下跌概率达80%。 国投证券认为， 历年国庆节前市场基本节奏为小幅调整，原因在于投资者担心持有证券过节会发生 预期外的风险，会选择变现、买入货基或逆回购过节，此外部分投资者也会将基金份额变现以支持国 庆期间消费 。 数据显示，从过去10年国庆节前5个交易日表现来看，A股通常面临调整，上证指数下跌概率80%， 而国庆节 后 5个交易日上涨概率达60%。 招商证券分析认为，国庆节前市场交投相对清淡，部分资金在避险需求下流出，导致市场表现不佳。 然而，国庆节后市场风险偏好改善，主要指数往往迎来反弹。 对于后市，在华西证券看来，唯有"慢牛"才是"长牛"，A股慢牛的逻辑并未改变：中国 ...

9月24日，市场低开高走，创业板指盘中再创3年多新高，科创50指数一度涨近5%。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.83%，深成指涨1.80%，创业板指涨2.28%。 板块方面，存储芯片、光刻机、能源金属等板块涨幅居前，旅游等板块跌幅居前。 全市场超4400只个股上涨，下跌家数不足900家。沪深两市成交额2.33万亿元，较上一个交易日缩量 1676亿。 等了好久终于等到今天，"9·24"行情迎来周年庆。 跟生活中很多事一样，在真正发生前，我们有各种期待，情绪也上下起伏。 而在其如期而至时，大家反而会有些平静。 就像今天A股的行情，有超4000家股票上涨，指数也全线飘红。 但和昨天连起来看，这似乎是一次幅度较大的"先深蹲后起跳"的波动，亮点在于日线"阳包阴"，提示市 场仍运行在"慢牛"的趋势中。 当然，这已经是很积极的信号了。 毕竟，一年前的"9·24"，沪指的开盘点位是2770点； 而今天，沪指的开盘点位，已经到了3804点。 高度不同，资金的冲劲也不同。但即便短期市场暴涨的概率较低，过完今天，本轮行情也"还没走完"。 拭目以待！ 半导体产业链爆发 据报道，9月23日，第二十五届中国国际工业博览会在上海国家会展中心隆重开幕 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to prevent economic recession and aligns with historical patterns of preemptive rate cuts [1][7][6] - The U.S. job market shows signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August and non-farm payrolls being significantly revised downwards, indicating a potential economic slowdown [7][8][11] - A-share market is expected to maintain a strong slow bull trend in the short term, supported by the Fed's rate cut and domestic growth policies [13][19][20] Group 2 - The technology sector and certain core assets are likely to outperform following the Fed's rate cut, driven by liquidity easing and upward industry trends [19][20][21] - Historical data shows that after 18 rate cuts since 2005, sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and communications have frequently ranked among the top performers [19][22][27] - The easing of liquidity is expected to attract foreign capital into A-shares, with significant inflows observed during previous rate cut cycles [19][20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The current market conditions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are characterized by increased participation from retail investors and foreign capital, with concerns about the sustainability of this "slow bull" market compared to past experiences like in 2015 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Retail savings are gradually entering the market through funds, and foreign capital is flowing into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][8] - The Hong Kong stock market has surpassed 26,000 points, while A-shares are experiencing upward movement despite some volatility [1] - The current market is different from 2015 due to stricter regulations on margin trading, with the margin financing balance being significantly lower than in 2015 [3][4] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors have learned from past mistakes and are less likely to use excessive leverage, which reduces overall risk in the market [4] - The inflow of retail savings is gradual, akin to watering a plant slowly to avoid root rot, suggesting a more sustainable market growth compared to previous surges [4][6] Group 3: Fundraising and Investment Opportunities - Fundraising limits for most funds are between 1 billion to 5 billion yuan, indicating that the influx of retail savings is still in its early stages [6] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are currently undervalued, with many quality stocks offering dividend yields higher than bonds, presenting attractive investment opportunities [8] Group 4: Foreign Capital Inflow - Since the second half of last year, foreign capital has consistently flowed into Hong Kong stocks, with over 10 billion USD entering A-shares in the first half of this year, indicating a sustained interest rather than a fleeting trend [10] - The attractiveness of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is enhanced by their relative undervaluation compared to the high valuations in the US market [10] Group 5: Economic Context and Investment Strategy - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may lead to lower borrowing costs, encouraging both corporate investment and individual investors to seek higher returns in the stock market [11] - A diversified investment strategy, including a 20% allocation to gold, is recommended to mitigate risks associated with market volatility while maintaining exposure to potential growth in equities [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing complex fluctuations, with various sectors under scrutiny and expectations for recovery, driven by government policies and economic conditions [1][2]. Market Trends - Since September 24, 2022, there has been a significant policy shift in China from "tight fiscal + loose monetary" to "both monetary and fiscal easing," which has positively impacted market sentiment [1]. - The long-term outlook for A-shares is optimistic, with reasonable valuations and expected annualized growth for the CSI 300 index, despite some sectors showing high valuations and market fragmentation [2]. Investment Strategies - The company employs a diversified macro strategy across various asset classes (stocks, commodities, bonds) to manage risks effectively and control drawdowns [3]. - Advanced systematic risk control mechanisms are in place, including pre-warning and stop-loss indicators, ensuring timely risk management during market volatility [3]. Economic Recovery - There are notable signs of recovery in certain sectors post-pandemic, with strong export performance and increasing contributions from emerging industries like semiconductors and new energy vehicles [4]. - Consumer policies are being implemented to boost spending, although the impact may lag behind compared to developed countries [4]. Sector Focus - The semiconductor and biopharmaceutical sectors have seen significant price increases due to factors such as lower financing costs from interest rate cuts and strong innovation [4]. - The company plans to focus on the non-ferrous metals sector, anticipating increased demand and potential price rises if a global easing cycle occurs [5][6]. Interest Rate Impact - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to have already been partially priced into the A-share market, with ongoing attention on future rate adjustments [6]. - The decline in risk-free asset yields presents opportunities for equities, as the current yield on China's ten-year government bonds is around 1.8%, indicating room for adjustment [6]. Investor Guidance - New investors are advised to temper their return expectations, adopt a systematic asset allocation approach, and continuously learn to develop a suitable investment methodology [6].

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective rise on September 10, with the ChiNext Index increasing by over 1.5%, driven by strong performance in the tourism sector and active trading in computing hardware stocks [1] - The recent surge in the Sci-Tech Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (159783) saw a rise of over 2%, with top-performing holdings including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Lanke Technology, Haiguang Information, Tianfu Communication, and Cambrian [1] - Huaxi Securities believes that the expectation of monetary easing is re-emerging, maintaining a slow bull market trend for A-shares, supported by long-term funds such as insurance and pension funds increasing their market participation [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (159783) tracks the CSI Sci-Tech Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index, which selects 50 leading companies with the largest market capitalization and pure technology attributes from the ChiNext and Sci-Tech boards [2] - This index combines the advantages of both boards, selecting high-tech attributes from the Sci-Tech board and growth and profitability from the ChiNext board, allowing investors without specific accounts to access core assets in these sectors [2]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective rise on September 10, with the ChiNext Index increasing by over 1.5%, driven by strong performance in the tourism sector and active trading in computing hardware stocks [1] - The recent surge in the Sci-Tech Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (159783) saw a rise of over 2%, with top-performing holdings including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Lanke Technology, Haiguang Information, Tianfu Communication, and Cambrian [1] - Huaxi Securities believes that the expectation of monetary easing is re-emerging, maintaining a slow bull market trend for A-shares, supported by strong policy backing for stabilizing the stock market and increased long-term capital inflow from insurance and pension funds [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (159783) tracks the CSI Sci-Tech Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index, which selects 50 leading companies with the largest market capitalization and strong technology attributes from the ChiNext and Sci-Tech boards [2] - This index combines the advantages of both boards, selecting high-tech stocks from the Sci-Tech board and growth-oriented, profitable stocks from the ChiNext board, providing a one-click investment option for investors without direct access to these boards [2]