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难,难,难,全球风投行业集体迈入“至暗时刻”
3 6 Ke· 2025-06-03 03:05
Group 1 - The venture capital (VC) industry has transitioned from a "golden era" characterized by low interest rates and abundant capital to a challenging environment marked by rising capital costs and tightening liquidity [1][2] - In 2024, the number of limited partners (LPs) supporting VC funds with assets between $100 million and $250 million has decreased by nearly 50%, from 83 in 2022 to 47 [2] - Emerging fund managers in the U.S. saw their total fundraising drop from $64 billion in 2021 to $17 billion in 2024, with only $4.7 billion raised so far this year [2][3] Group 2 - The number of VC deals in the Asia-Pacific region fell to its lowest level in over a decade, with a 32% quarter-on-quarter decline to $12.9 billion in Q1 2025 [3] - In 2024, seed-stage investments dropped by 45%, early-stage funding decreased by 8%, and late-stage financing fell by 11% [4] - The frequency of bridge financing in seed rounds rose to 40% in 2024, while it declined in later rounds [4][6] Group 3 - The internal rate of return (IRR) for VC funds has significantly decreased, with the median IRR for 2017 funds dropping from 16.8% in Q4 2021 to 12.0% by Q4 2024 [8][9] - The median TVPI for funds raised in 2021, 2022, and 2023 ranged between 0.92x and 0.99x, indicating lower performance compared to earlier years [13] - The distribution of DPI (distributions to paid-in capital) has become increasingly rare, with only 12% of funds established in 2021 achieving a DPI greater than zero three years after inception [16][14] Group 4 - The decline in valuations during economic downturns has heightened risk aversion among investors, impacting the overall performance of VC portfolios [17] - Liquidity constraints have made exit opportunities less favorable, delaying the realization of investment returns [18] - The trend of investors seeking to liquidate private equity stakes in the secondary market has surged, with secondary market strategies accounting for nearly half of total financing in 2024 [19][22] Group 5 - Established firms with strong brand recognition and track records are perceived as better positioned to withstand long-term volatility, as LPs are increasingly cautious about new investments [23] - The geopolitical landscape has intensified competition in technology investments, exemplified by Saudi Arabia's launch of a $10 billion VC fund focused on AI [24] - Experts suggest that the current environment is a period of reflection rather than collapse, with potential for new fund models to emerge and a more resilient investment landscape to develop [25]