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顺丰控股(002352):业绩阶段性承压,股权回购彰显长期信心
Haitong Securities International· 2025-11-04 08:06
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target P/E of 25x for 2025, corresponding to a fair valuation of 54.21 RMB, reflecting an 8% downside from the current price [5][10]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 was 78.40 billion RMB, representing an 8.21% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.57 billion RMB, down 8.53% year-on-year. The decline in profit is attributed to proactive market expansion and necessary long-term strategic investments [5][10]. - The company is accelerating its industry and international strategies, achieving over 25% growth in logistics revenue from sectors such as industrial equipment, high-tech communications, and automotive [5][10]. - A significant share repurchase plan has been announced, increasing the total repurchase fund to 1.5-3 billion RMB, which is the highest in the company's history, aimed at boosting investor confidence [5][10]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 317.15 billion RMB, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.93 billion RMB, and EPS of 2.17 RMB. The net profit is expected to grow to 12.61 billion RMB and 14.13 billion RMB in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][5]. - The gross profit for Q3 2025 was 9.79 billion RMB, with a gross profit margin of 12.5%, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year. However, cost control measures have improved, with management, R&D, and finance expense ratios decreasing [5][10]. - The company has seen a significant increase in parcel volume, reaching 4.31 billion, which is a 33.4% year-on-year increase, outperforming the industry average [5][10].