Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are unconstitutional, leading to a structural shift in U.S. tariff policy [1]. Group 1: Taxation Methods - The ruling will drive a structural shift in U.S. tariff policy, moving from comprehensive taxation to more targeted measures. The IEEPA allowed the president to impose tariffs without limits during a national emergency, but all IEEPA tariffs will become invalid following the Supreme Court's decision [4]. - As a transitional measure, the Trump administration has initiated a 10% tariff on global imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with plans to raise it to the maximum limit of 15% for a period of 150 days [7]. - The U.S. Trade Representative indicated that future tariff policies will focus on continuity and maintaining previously negotiated tariff levels with various countries, with tariffs on China expected to remain in the 35-50% range [7]. Group 2: Short-term Implications - In the short term, U.S. tariff rates may see a significant reduction. Before the ruling, the overall nominal tariff rate was approximately 16%, which could decrease by 2.3 percentage points after the transition to Section 122. Tariffs on China may drop by 5 percentage points from around 40% [8]. - The elimination of IEEPA tariffs will align U.S. tariffs on certain goods with global levels, benefiting products like steel, aluminum derivatives, copper, wood derivatives, and pharmaceuticals [8]. Group 3: Mid-term Constraints - In the mid-term, while the Trump administration aims to maintain pre-ruling tariff rates, there are dual constraints that may prevent a complete replacement of IEEPA tariffs [9]. - Administrative costs are a constraint, as investigations under Sections 232 and 301 require significant time, making it difficult to establish a comprehensive tariff system within 150 days [10]. - Inflation constraints are also present, as the upcoming midterm elections will focus on living costs, and raising tariffs could exacerbate inflationary pressures [10]. Group 4: Forward Outlook - Overall, the ruling suggests a shift in U.S. tariff policy from comprehensive taxation to more precise targeting. Under the constraints of administrative costs and inflation, the overall U.S. tariff rate may trend downward [11]. - There is potential for further easing of tariffs on China, especially with anticipated high-level meetings between U.S. and Chinese leaders throughout the year. However, there remains a risk of structural increases in tariffs on key Chinese industries under Sections 232 or 301 [11].