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行业点评报告:雅江下游水电站开工,基建行业迎来发展新机遇
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-23 13:58
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project marks a significant opportunity for the infrastructure sector, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which is five times the investment of the Three Gorges Dam project [5][7] - The project is expected to have a total installed capacity of 60 million kilowatts, accounting for 1.8% of the national cumulative installed capacity and 13.8% of the hydropower installed capacity in 2024 [7] - The project will not only contribute to direct power generation but is also anticipated to stimulate comprehensive economic upgrades in Tibet and potentially connect with the power grid of South Asian countries in the future [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The traditional energy sector in China is maintaining stable development, with major power generation enterprises completing investments of 1,168.7 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [7] - The hydropower installed capacity reached approximately 440 million kilowatts in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [7] Project Details - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project will utilize a five-level cascade development model, leveraging a natural drop of 2,230 meters, with a water utilization rate exceeding 85% [7] - The overall construction period of the project is expected to exceed 10 years, with annual infrastructure investments exceeding 100 billion yuan, representing 0.71% of the total broad infrastructure investment in 2024 [7] Investment Recommendations - Recommended investment targets include leading domestic hydropower construction companies such as China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering, which possess advanced technology in plateau hydropower and ultra-high voltage supporting fields [8] - Additionally, major transportation infrastructure companies like China Communications Construction and Tunnel Corporation are highlighted for their advantages in large-scale infrastructure and complex geological conditions [8]