www.leadleo.com 超级水电研究 | 2025/09 简报 | 2025/09 Q1：为什么需要在雅鲁藏布江下游建设水电站？它的优势在于什么？ ◼ 国家政策需求 报告标签：战略规划与定位、工程技术与挑战、生态与全球影响、未来展望与建议 报告提供的任何内容（包括但不限于数据、文字、图表、图像等）均系头豹研究院独有的高度机密性文件（在报告中另行标明出处者除外）。未经头豹 研究院事先书面许可，任何人不得以任何方式擅自复制、再造、传播、出版、引用、改编、汇编本报告内容，若有违反上述约定的行为发生，头豹研究 院保留采取法律措施、追究相关人员责任的权利。头豹研究院开展的所有商业活动均使用"头豹研究院"或"头豹"的商号、商标，头豹研究院无任何前述名 称之外的其他分支机构，也未授权或聘用其他任何第三方代表头豹研究院开展商业活动。 2020年11月，中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035远景目标的建议中，明确提出 了"实施雅鲁藏布江下游水电开发"。雅鲁藏布江下游水电开发被纳入国家"十四五"规划纲要，列为重大能源工 程，标志着其上升为国家战略。 1 《"十四五"现代能源体系规划》进一步明确其作为 ...

Group 1 - China Yajiang Group has established a new subsidiary, China Yajiang Group Ecological Environmental Protection Co., Ltd., in Chengdu, bringing the total number of subsidiaries in Sichuan to four [1] - The new subsidiary was formerly known as Yajiang Qingneng Ecological Environmental Protection (Chengdu) Co., Ltd., and was officially renamed on September 6, 2023, after China Yajiang Group became the sole shareholder with a registered capital of 500 million yuan [1] - The predecessor company has applied for over ten invention and utility model patents, focusing on ecological protection, and has collaborated with various research institutions and universities [1] Group 2 - China Yajiang Group was established on July 19, 2025, as a central enterprise approved by the State Council, primarily responsible for the development, construction, and operation of hydropower projects in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River [2]

Fiscal Overview - In September 2025, the overall fiscal revenue and expenditure were in a tight balance, with expenditure growing at a relatively fast pace, providing support to the fundamentals [2] - The general public budget revenue in September increased by 2.6% year-on-year, primarily driven by accelerated tax revenue growth [2][4] - The general public budget expenditure in September grew by 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a significant increase compared to the previous month's growth of 0.8% [2][4] Government Fund Budget - The government fund budget showed a recovery in September, with revenue increasing by 5.6% year-on-year, contrasting with a previous decline of 5.7% [2][8] - The expenditure growth rate for the government fund budget slowed to 0.4% in September, down from 19.8% in the previous month [2][9] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue for September reached 15,678 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, continuing the recovery trend [4] - The tax revenue for the first nine months of 2025 grew by 0.7%, a significant increase from the previous value of 0.02% [5] - Personal income tax saw a notable increase of 9.7%, attributed to enhanced tax collection measures since 2025 [5] Expenditure Trends - National public budget expenditure in September was 28,740 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [7] - The expenditure completion rate for the first nine months reached 70.1%, with social security and employment, health, and education sectors showing faster spending progress [7] Regional and Sectoral Performance - Among 31 provinces, 27 reported positive growth in tax revenue, with only a few regions affected by declining prices of major commodities [5] - Key strategic areas such as social security, technology, and education received substantial funding, with growth rates of 10%, 6.5%, and 5.4% respectively [5] Policy Implications - The acceleration of new policy financial tools and the allocation of 500 billion yuan from the central government to local governments are expected to support economic recovery [3] - The focus on effective investment and project construction in major economic provinces is anticipated to enhance overall economic performance [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and complexities involved in constructing the world's largest hydropower project, the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, highlighting the long wait of half a century before actual construction began [1] Group 1 - The project is described as a monumental engineering feat that has faced numerous difficulties over the decades [1] - The article raises questions about the geological conditions and the efforts of generations of engineers who have worked on this project [1] - It emphasizes the significance of the project in harnessing vast energy resources [1]

Group 1 - The establishment of China Yajiang Group and the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project signify a new phase in China's clean energy strategy, with an expected annual power generation exceeding 300 billion kilowatt-hours, equivalent to a reduction of approximately 100 million tons of standard coal consumption and a decrease of 250 million tons of CO2 emissions, making it a key pillar for achieving the "dual carbon" goals [1][3] - China Yajiang Group aims to integrate top domestic hydropower construction capabilities, focusing on the development of hydropower resources in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream, optimizing the energy structure in the southwest region, and promoting hydropower technology innovation [3][4] - Hydropower is playing an irreplaceable role in achieving the "dual carbon" goals, with China's annual hydropower generation surpassing 1.3 trillion kilowatt-hours, leading to a reduction of 400 million tons of coal consumption and 1 billion tons of CO2 emissions annually, with these figures continuing to grow [4][6] Group 2 - The green value of hydropower is highlighted by its unparalleled emission reduction benefits, with a million-kilowatt hydropower station saving approximately 3 million tons of standard coal and reducing CO2 emissions by 7 million tons annually; the Three Gorges Project has cumulatively generated over 1.5 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity, equivalent to a reduction of about 1.2 billion tons of CO2 emissions [6] - Modern hydropower projects prioritize ecological protection, implementing facilities for ecological flow release and fish breeding, achieving a balance between power generation and ecological preservation [6][8] - Rural small hydropower stations, numbering 47,000 nationwide, play a crucial role in providing stable electricity to remote areas, reducing firewood consumption by approximately 10 million cubic meters annually, thus protecting valuable forest resources [6] Group 3 - Despite the advantages, hydropower development faces challenges such as ecological protection and the saturation of quality hydropower resources; achieving the carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 requires exploring new clean energy technologies like geomagnetic energy [8][12] - Geomagnetic energy generation technology offers three main advantages: all-weather power generation, absolute cleanliness with zero emissions, and the ability to harness energy from any location, from the equator to the poles [12]

Group 1 - The company, China National Petroleum Engineering Co., Ltd. (中油工程), has stated that it is currently not involved in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid economic growth in Tibet driven by multiple super projects, including the establishment of the New Tibet Railway Company to connect Xinjiang and Tibet, which is expected to further boost the region's economy [3][9]. Economic Growth Data - In the first half of 2025, Tibet's GDP reached 138.27 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [3]. - Tibet's GDP for 2023 was 239.27 billion, growing by 9.5%, and for 2024, it was 276.49 billion, with a growth rate of 6.3% [4]. Investment Impact - Fixed asset investment in Tibet increased by 24.8% in the first half of the year [5]. - In 2023, fixed asset investment grew by 35.1%, with the second industry increasing by 47.7% and the third industry by 35.4% [7]. - In 2024, fixed asset investment rose by 19.6%, with private investment growing by 52.9% [7]. Infrastructure Projects - Major infrastructure projects include the ongoing construction of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and the new Tibet Railway, which are expected to significantly enhance connectivity and economic activity in the region [10][11]. - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion, is also underway [10]. Economic Diversification - The article emphasizes the need for environmentally friendly industries and the development of green technology sectors in Tibet, alongside traditional infrastructure projects [12].

Core Insights - The establishment of multiple super projects in Tibet, including the new Xinjiang-Tibet Railway, is expected to drive rapid economic growth in the region [1][5][6] - Tibet's GDP growth has consistently ranked first in the nation, with a reported GDP of 2,392.67 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 9.5% increase from the previous year [2][3] - Significant investment in fixed assets has been a major contributor to Tibet's economic growth, with a 24.8% year-on-year increase in the first half of the year [2][3] Economic Growth - Tibet's GDP for the first half of 2025 is projected to reach 1,382.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2% [1] - The region's GDP growth rate has improved significantly post-pandemic, with a notable increase of 8.3 percentage points in 2023 compared to the previous year [2] - The fixed asset investment in Tibet has shown remarkable growth, with a 35.1% increase in 2023, particularly in the second industry, which grew by 47.7% [3][4] Investment Trends - The fixed asset investment in Tibet is expected to grow by 19.6% in 2024, with significant increases in private investment, which rose by 52.9% [3][4] - The number of private enterprises and individual businesses in Tibet has reached 143,200 and 414,800 respectively, indicating a robust growth in the private sector [4] - The contribution of private investment to the region's economy is highlighted by a 46.4% year-on-year increase in the first quarter of the year [4] Infrastructure Development - Major infrastructure projects, including the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, are set to enhance connectivity and energy supply in Tibet [5][6] - The total investment for the Sichuan-Tibet Railway exceeds 300 billion yuan, with the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway expected to have a similar investment scale [6] - These infrastructure developments are anticipated to not only boost Tibet's economy but also contribute positively to the broader Chinese economy by stimulating related industries [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of multiple super projects in Tibet has drawn attention to the region's investment construction and economic growth, with significant contributions from infrastructure projects [2][6]. Economic Growth - Tibet's GDP reached 138.27 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [2]. - In 2023, Tibet's GDP was 239.27 billion yuan, growing by 9.5% compared to the previous year, marking an increase of 8.3 percentage points [3]. - The GDP for 2024 is projected to be 276.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [3]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Tibet grew by 24.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2023 [3]. - In 2023, fixed asset investment increased by 35.1%, with the second industry growing by 47.7% and the third industry by 35.4% [4]. - In 2024, fixed asset investment is expected to grow by 19.6%, with projects over 50 million yuan seeing a 39.7% increase [4]. Private Sector Growth - As of this year, Tibet has 143,200 private enterprises and 414,800 individual businesses, with a year-on-year increase in private investment of 46.4% [5]. - The tax revenue from the private economy reached 8.41 billion yuan, accounting for 79.3% of the total tax revenue in the region, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9% [5]. Infrastructure Projects - The establishment of the New Tibet Railway Company aims to advance the construction of the Xinjiang-Tibet railway, connecting key regions [2][8]. - Major projects include the ongoing construction of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with total investments expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan [8]. - These infrastructure developments are anticipated to significantly boost Tibet's economy and enhance its connectivity with other regions [8][9].

Core Insights - Two major infrastructure projects have commenced in Tibet within a month, highlighting the region's strategic importance as a national defense barrier and a key water resource [1][2] Group 1: New Tibet Railway - The New Tibet Railway Company was established on August 7, with a registered capital of 95 billion RMB, fully owned by China National Railway Group [3] - The railway will connect Xinjiang Hotan to Tibet Lhasa, spanning 1980 kilometers and is considered the fourth railway into Tibet [4][7] - The project has a long planning history, with initial proposals dating back to 2004, and aims to start construction by 2025 with an estimated investment of around 400 billion RMB [5][8] Group 2: Yarlung Tsangpo River Hydropower Project - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project officially broke ground on July 19, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion RMB, planning to construct five hydropower stations [10] - The project is expected to have an installed capacity of 60 million kilowatts and an annual power generation of about 300 billion kilowatt-hours, equivalent to three Three Gorges dams [11] - The hydropower project is strategically significant for controlling water resources, supporting China's dual carbon goals, and enhancing regional economic cooperation with South Asian countries [12][13] Group 3: Economic Impact - The Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project is projected to generate over 20 billion RMB in annual fiscal revenue for Tibet, reducing reliance on transfer payments [14] - The projects are expected to stimulate economic growth, expand domestic demand, and develop upstream and downstream industries, with a total investment exceeding one trillion RMB [14]