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你赚了钱,是因为市场不成熟
混沌学园· 2025-09-24 11:57
Core Insights - The article emphasizes that success in business often stems from operating in an immature market rather than solely from exceptional strategies or execution [2][3] - Recognizing the transient nature of market opportunities can help businesses navigate through cycles and avoid being eliminated when markets mature [2][3] Group 1: Three Types of "Immaturity Dividends" - **Information Asymmetry Dividend**: In immature markets, buyers and sellers lack efficient access to information, creating profit opportunities. Examples include early foreign trade and the initial internet phase [5] - **Rule Absence Dividend**: Markets with undeveloped regulations allow for greater freedom in business practices, enabling rapid expansion through methods that may be considered gray or illegal in mature markets. Early internet platforms often exploited this [6] - **Demand Overflow Dividend**: When supply cannot meet sudden or long-suppressed demand, businesses can succeed simply by being present in the market. Early real estate and smartphone markets exemplify this, where basic functionality sufficed for success [7] Group 2: Disappearance of Dividends as Markets Mature - As markets mature, the following changes occur: - **Information Equality**: Transparency in pricing and channels reduces profit margins from information asymmetry [9] - **Regulatory Framework**: Established laws and standards limit previously available freedoms, constraining growth opportunities [9] - **Supply Surplus**: Increased competition transforms markets from "blue oceans" to "red oceans," leading to a shift in consumer behavior towards quality and brand loyalty [9] - **Value Return**: Consumers begin to prioritize genuine value, such as better experiences and innovation, over mere availability [9] Group 3: Transitioning from "Arbitrageurs" to "Value Creators" - Businesses must adapt to the loss of immaturity dividends by focusing on creating unique value rather than relying on market conditions. Key strategies include: - **Self-Awareness**: Companies should assess how much of their profit is derived from market conditions versus their own value creation [11] - **Strategic Investment**: The best time to invest in technology, branding, and user experience is during profitable periods, as exemplified by Huawei's consistent R&D investment [11] - **Building Moats**: Establishing brand loyalty, proprietary technology, and efficient supply chains are essential for sustaining profits in mature markets [11] - **Embracing Regulations**: Viewing compliance as a competitive advantage can foster trust and credibility in mature markets [11] Conclusion - The article serves as a reminder that while market immaturity can lead to success, true business wisdom lies in distinguishing between temporary opportunities and sustainable practices. The greatest challenge is not seizing opportunities in immature markets but adapting core capabilities as markets mature [14]