Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downside space of the soybean No. 1 futures price is limited. The reasons are as follows: supply growth is slowing down; demand growth is slightly higher than supply growth; and the supply - demand situation is tightening [2][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 H1 DCE Soybean No. 1 Futures Price Review - From January to June 6, 2025, the main contract price of DCE soybean No. 1 futures showed a pattern of "range - bound movement with a rising center of gravity". It experienced four stages: rising from January 9 to March 4 due to factors like rising international soybean prices, policy incentives, and Sino - US trade frictions; falling from March 5 to March 20 because of the local reserve soybean auction in Heilongjiang; rising from March 21 to April 24 due to Sino - US trade frictions and a sharp rise in soybean meal spot prices; and range - bound oscillation from April 25 to June 6, with upward pressure from the sharp drop in soybean meal spot prices and the expectation of state reserve auctions, and downward support from low market surplus grain and stable - to - strong spot prices [6][7][8]. 2. 2025 H2 Factors Affecting the Soybean No. 1 Futures Price 2.1 Supply Side: New Crop Supply Growth Slows, Old Crop Reserve Auctions Supplement Supply - **New Crop Soybean Supply Growth Slows** - In 2025, China's soybean production increased steadily. The sown area was about 1.042 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of about 1%; the yield per unit area was 2,023 kg/ha, a year - on - year increase of about 1%; and the output was 21.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2%, reaching a record high [10]. - For the 2025/26 period, China's soybean imports remained at a high level, but there were differences in the estimated quantities. USDA estimated an import volume of 112 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 3.7%, while CAOC estimated 95.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.8%. Overall, the total supply increased but the growth rate slowed down [15][18][20]. - **Old Crop Soybean Reserve Auctions Supplement Supply** - The market surplus grain of soybeans was relatively low, and old crop reserve auctions supplemented the supply. From March to May, local reserve auctions took place, and subsequent state reserve auctions were also expected. As of the week of May 30, the surplus grain of soybeans in Heilongjiang was about 2%, lower than the same period in previous years. The surplus grain in Anhui, Henan, and Shandong was also lower than in previous years. From March to May 2025, the actual transaction volume of local reserve soybean auctions in Heilongjiang was about 455,000 tons, and in Inner Mongolia was about 220,000 tons [23]. 2.2 Demand Side: Market Demand Increases Steadily, Reserve Demand Provides Support - According to the May USDA supply - demand report, in the 2025/26 period, China's domestic soybean consumption was estimated to be 133 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1 million tons (about 4% increase). The total demand was 133.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1 million tons (about 4% increase). CAOC estimated that the domestic soybean consumption in the 2025/26 period was 114.15 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.35%. The difference in consumption estimates between USDA and CAOC mainly lies in the crushing volume, but overall, the crushing volume remained at a high level. It is expected that the crushing volume of domestic soybeans will increase year - on - year due to low prices, and the crushing volume of imported soybeans will depend on the demand for soybean meal in the domestic breeding industry [30]. - Reserve demand is stable and has regulatory space. China has been continuously purchasing autumn - harvested soybeans. As of March 7, 2025, the purchase volume of soybeans exceeded 10 million tons, a relatively high level in recent years. If market demand is insufficient, reserve demand can increase; if market demand is good, reserve demand can decrease [37]. 2.3 Inventory Side: Global and Chinese Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratios Decline, Supply - Demand Tightens - According to the May USDA supply - demand report, in the 2025/26 period, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of global, US, Brazilian, and Chinese soybeans all declined, indicating a tightening supply - demand situation. In the Chinese soybean supply - demand balance sheet, the supply increment was 5 million tons (about 3% increase), and the demand increment was 5.1 million tons (about 4% increase). The demand growth was slightly higher than the supply, resulting in a slight decrease in the ending inventory and a decline in the inventory - to - consumption ratio [40]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The downside of the soybean No. 1 futures price is limited. Supply growth is slowing down both domestically and globally; demand growth is slightly higher than supply growth, with increasing edible demand and stable - to - high crushing demand; and the supply - demand situation is tightening [43]. - In terms of investment outlook, from a trend investment perspective, a strategy of "going long at low levels and rolling long positions" can be considered. When the soybean price is at a phased low, strategies such as "buying on dips" and "buying hedges to lock in costs" can be considered; when the price reaches a phased high, reduce positions and take profits [43].