1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of soybean meal is expected to be strong due to slower shipping from Brazil, tightened domestic supply - demand, and rising costs caused by higher oil prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's shipping and auction situations [8]. - In the short - term, the prices of oils and fats will maintain a high - level volatile trend due to the continuous escalation of the Middle East war. Palm oil and soybean oil are relatively strong, while rapeseed oil is relatively weak. A rolling long strategy is recommended [71]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of March 13, the spot price in East China was 3350 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2605 contract closed at 3128 yuan/ton, up 213 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis quote was 05 + 200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [8][10]. 3.1.2 Supply - The March USDA report maintained the production of US and Brazilian soybeans and slightly reduced Argentina's soybean production, with the global soybean harvest pattern continuing. Brazil's soybean harvest progress accelerated, but domestic logistics capacity was mismatched, increasing domestic truck freight and ocean freight. Brazil's slow shipping led to a further downward adjustment of the expected arrival of soybeans in China from March to April, and soybeans and soybean meal were still in a destocking cycle [8]. 3.1.3 Demand - China's pig inventory remained high but entered a seasonal off - peak period, with the pig inventory decreasing month - on - month. Poultry inventory was high, and the addition ratio of soybean meal decreased. Overall, the demand for soybean meal remained high. The purchase sentiment of downstream buyers improved recently, with the national oil mill's soybean inventory slightly decreasing to 572.67 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory slightly increasing to 76.05 million tons [8]. 3.1.4 Cost - Based on the current US soybean price of 1200 cents, a premium of 120 cents, and a 2.9 oil - meal ratio, the theoretical price of soybean meal was 3025 yuan/ton. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans from July to September was 3100 yuan/ton. The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2026/27 season was 1218 cents per bushel, and it was expected to rise if oil prices continued to increase. The import crushing profit improved, with the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans around 200 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5 Market Summary - Due to lower - than - expected shipping from Brazil, tightened domestic supply - demand, and rising costs from higher oil prices, the overall price of soybean meal was strong. Attention should be paid to Brazil's shipping and auction situations [8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week of March 13, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 550 yuan/ton to 9768 yuan/ton, the soybean oil main 05 contract rose 278 yuan/ton to 8690 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil main 05 contract rose 155 yuan/ton to 9821 yuan/ton. The corresponding spot prices also increased, and the basis of palm oil and rapeseed oil increased, while that of soybean oil decreased [71][73]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB February report showed that Malaysia's palm oil production and exports both decreased month - on - month, with the end - of - period inventory higher than expected. In March, production increased, but exports also increased significantly due to the transfer of some demand from Indonesia. Indonesia's accelerated B50 biodiesel policy was beneficial to palm oil demand. In China, the palm oil inventory continued to accumulate in February but was expected to destock from March to April [71]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The USDA March report had a neutral impact. Market attention was on the Middle East situation, US soybean demand, and South American soybean production. Positive factors such as China's potential purchase of US soybeans and the expected increase in US biodiesel blending volume supported the price of US soybeans. In China, the soybean inventory was expected to decrease in the first quarter, but the large - scale arrival of South American soybeans after March would limit the further decrease of soybean oil inventory [71]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The Middle East war increased the import cost of rapeseed and tightened the domestic supply of rapeseed oil. However, China's reduction of the comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed and the arrival of previously purchased rapeseed from March to May were expected to ease the supply - demand tension [71]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short - term, the continuous escalation of the Middle East war supported the prices of oil and fats. Palm oil and soybean oil were relatively strong, while rapeseed oil was relatively weak. A rolling long strategy was recommended [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures all rose this week, with increases of 6.69%, 7.31%, and 3.3% respectively [5][7][8]. - The spot price of soybeans in the Northeast production area is expected to maintain a slight upward trend in the short - term, with high - protein soybeans remaining high and firm [5]. - The South American soybean production outlook is a key variable in the global market. If the Brazilian soybean production reduction expands, it may support the US soybean price [6][7]. - The US bio - diesel policy is expected to be favorable, which has led to an optimistic market expectation for future bio - fuel demand [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean (Bean 1)**: The main 2605 contract rose 6.69% this week. After the festival, the spot price of soybeans in the Northeast is expected to rise slightly, with high - protein soybeans having limited upward momentum [5]. - **Imported Soybeans (Bean 2)**: The main 2605 contract rose 6.55% this week. The South American production outlook is crucial. Some institutions have lowered their Brazilian production estimates, and the US soybean ending stocks forecast remains unchanged [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2605 contract rose 7.31% this week. The South American production outlook is a key factor. Domestic market concerns about supply in late March to early April have led to increased trading volume, and downstream feed enterprises' inventories are relatively sufficient in the short - term [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2605 contract rose 3.3% this week. The US bio - diesel policy is expected to be introduced, and the market is optimistic. After the Spring Festival, domestic oil prices have risen, but downstream purchases are cautious [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The main contracts of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil all rose this week, with increases of 6.69%, 7.31%, and 3.3% respectively [12][19][25]. - **Spread**: As of March 12, the 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal was 4 yuan/ton, and that of soybean oil was 92 yuan/ton [31][34]. - **Net Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 12, the net positions of the top 20 in soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures were - 26,511 lots, - 490,684 lots, and - 126,592 lots respectively. The warehouse receipts of the main contracts of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil were 24,618 lots, 36,982 lots, and 25,714 lots respectively [39][45][50]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Soybean**: As of March 12, the spot price of Grade 3 domestic soybeans in Harbin was 4,400 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was - 449 yuan/ton [54]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of March 12, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,280 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 226 yuan/ton [60]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of March 12, the spot price of Grade 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 268 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from last week [66]. - **Imported Soybean Premium**: As of March 12, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in March was 115 cents/bushel, unchanged from last week; that of Argentine soybeans was 20 cents/bushel, down 16 cents/bushel from last week; and that of Brazilian soybeans was - 29 cents/bushel, down 19 cents/bushel from last week [70]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Cost**: As of March 12, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 5,412.7 yuan/ton, up 203.54 yuan/ton from last week; that of South American soybeans was 3,908.4 yuan/ton, up 188.84 yuan/ton from last week, and the cost difference was 1,504.66 yuan/ton, up 14.7 yuan/ton from last week [74]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Weather**: In the US, about 47% (+3) of the soybean - producing areas were in drought last week, with a slight improvement compared to last week but worse than the same period last year. In Brazil, the soybean harvest progress as of March 7 was 50.6% [77][95]. - **Supply - Side**: In 2025/26, the expected US soybean production was 11,598.9 million tons, unchanged from last month, and the inventory was 951.6 million tons, down 0.1 million tons from last month; the expected Brazilian soybean production was 18,000 million tons, unchanged, and the inventory was 3,791 million tons, unchanged; the expected Argentine soybean production was 4,800 million tons, down 50 million tons from last month, and the inventory was 2,291.9 million tons, unchanged [84][88][92]. - **Domestic Situation**: In the 10th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.7267 million tons, down 4.03% from last week; the soybean meal inventory was 760,500 tons, up 8.46% from last week; the soybean oil inventory was 1.094 million tons, down 0.26% from last week. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 10th week was 1.833 million tons, and the actual operating rate was 50.47%. China's soybean imports in January and February 2026 were 6.571 million tons and 5.976 million tons respectively. The estimated soybean arrival volume in March 2026 was 7.051 million tons [106][109][112][117][120][123]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of March 12, the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,780 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan/ton from last week; the price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 10,220 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from last week. The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil narrowed, while the rapeseed - soybean spreads widened. The average price of rapeseed meal was 2,702.63 yuan/ton, up 136.31 yuan/ton from last week; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 577 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton from last week; the soybean meal/rapeseed meal ratio was 1.21, up 0.03 from last week. The soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.83, down 0.11 from last week [131][134][138][141]. - **Transaction Situation**: As of February 27, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 437,100 tons, up 264,500 tons from last week; the total transaction volume of soybean oil was 74,900 tons, down 4,950 tons from last week [146]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Prices**: As of March 12, the price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Beijing was 10.12 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan/kg from last week; the price of piglets was 24.6 yuan/kg, down 1 yuan/kg from last week [150]. - **Profits**: As of February 11, the pig - raising profit was - 134.06 yuan/head, down 34.74 yuan/head from last week; as of February 13, the poultry - raising profit was - 0.09 yuan/bird, down 0.12 yuan/bird from last week [155]. - **Demand**: As of December 2025, the monthly feed output was 30.086 million tons, up 1.03% month - on - month and 5.8% year - on - year. In February 2026, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0204 million heads, down 0.01% month - on - month and 0.48% year - on - year; the inventory of commercial pigs was 37.3205 million heads, up 1.79% month - on - month and 5.57% year - on - year [158][163].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to market rumors that the customs has extended the clearance of South American soybeans by 10 - 20 days, the price of soybean meal has increased significantly with increased positions. From a fundamental perspective, the recent improvement in the export sales of US soybeans and the expectation of China's increased procurement of US soybeans have driven up the price of CBOT soybeans. For the domestic market, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure is increasing, but on the other hand, as the price of US soybeans rises, the import cost increases, and the price of protein meal may be bottoming out [10]. - The protein meal price may be bottoming out based on the fundamental assessment [11]. - The trading strategy suggestions for both unilateral and arbitrage are to wait and see [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information** - From February 12th to February 19th, the US exported 410,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 35.65 million tons in the current year, a year - on - year decrease of 7.83 million tons. Among them, 80,000 tons were exported to China, and the cumulative export to China in the current year was 10.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.08 million tons [10]. - As of February 21st, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 32.3%, 4.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year and 4.3 percentage points lower than the five - year average [10]. - As of the week of February 20th, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 11.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 million tons; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 5.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,000 tons [10]. - In January, the forecast for the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The stock - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season [10]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - Valuation indicators include the US soybean 5 - 7 spread, soybean import profit, rapeseed import cost, and soybean - rapeseed meal spread. The overall change of these indicators is not significant, and the soybean import profit has recovered [11]. - Driving factors analysis: The increase in the estimated Brazilian production, the increase in China's procurement of US soybeans, and the reduction of the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed are negative factors; the high inventory of domestic pigs and laying hens is a positive factor [11]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestions** - Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price** - The document provides the spot price trends of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu from 2022 to 2026 [21][22]. - **Basis of the Main Contract** - It shows the basis trends of the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract from 2022 to 2026 [24][25]. - **Inter - monthly Spread** - The inter - monthly spreads of soybean meal 5 - 9 months and rapeseed meal 5 - 9 months from 2022 to 2026 are presented [27][28]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread** - The spreads between the soybean meal May - rapeseed meal May and soybean meal September - rapeseed meal September from 2022 to 2026 are provided [30][31]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress** - The planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 are shown [36][37][39][40]. - **Weather Conditions** - The precipitation observations of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina compared with the same period of the year are presented, along with the weather conditions summary of soybean - producing areas as of February 20th [42][44][45][47]. - **US Soybean Export Progress** - The current market - year cumulative signing volume, next - year market - year cumulative signing volume, current market - year export volume to China, and next - market - year export volume to China of US soybeans are provided [53][54][56][57][59][60]. - **China's Oil Mill Pressing Situation** - The soybean and rapeseed pressing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are shown [62][63]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation** - The monthly export volume and export volume to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025 are presented [65][66]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Shipment Volume to China** - The weekly and cumulative shipment volumes of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 are provided [68][69][71][72]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory** - The port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseed in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are shown [76][77]. - **Protein Meal Inventory** - The inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are presented [79][80]. - **Protein Meal Pressing Profit** - The pressing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 are provided [82][83]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand** - The cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2022 to 2026 are shown [86]. - **Breeding Profit** - The average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 are presented [88][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Expected to oscillate within the range of 2710 - 2770. Influenced by the US - China trade deal, South American weather, and domestic demand, it's likely to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **Soybeans (A2605)**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4340 - 4440. Affected by factors such as US - China trade, South American weather, and domestic supply - demand, it will likely stay in a short - term oscillatory state [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal futures return to an oscillatory state, while the spot price remains relatively stable, with the spot premium staying at a relatively high level [23]. - The soybean crushing volume in oil mills returns to a high level, and the soybean meal output in December increases year - on - year [25][50]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills continue to decline, indicating a weakening of stocking demand [27][52]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrows, and the price difference of the 2605 contract fluctuates slightly [29]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean futures are oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - China's import of soybeans in the first quarter continues to decline. The soybean inventory in oil mills remains relatively high in January. With normal weather for South American soybean planting and growth, soybean meal has returned to a short - term oscillatory pattern [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to low expectations for pig restocking. The good demand for soybean meal in January supports its price. Influenced by US soybeans and the recovery of demand, it maintains an oscillatory pattern [13]. - The relatively high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, combined with the potential for weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade agreement, keeps soybean meal in a short - term oscillatory state, awaiting clear US soybean yields and further progress in the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total volume of imported soybeans in January remains relatively high; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [14]. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans leads to an increase in China's purchases; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price of beans [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal** - **Basis**: The spot price is 3030 (in East China), and the basis is 295, indicating a premium over futures [9]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory in oil mills is 94.72 million tons, a 9.27% decrease from last week and a 70.15% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans** - **Basis**: The spot price is 4400, and the basis is 22, a neutral premium over futures [11]. - **Inventory**: The soybean inventory in oil mills is 687.33 million tons, a 3.62% decrease from last week and a 31.81% increase from the same period last year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The short positions of the main force decrease, and funds flow out, indicating a bearish sentiment [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main force switches from long to short, and funds flow out, showing a bearish outlook [11]. 3.6 Other Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From January 29 to February 6, data on the transaction average price, trading volume, and price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Summary**: From January 30 to February 6, prices of soybean futures (including different contracts), soybean meal futures, and soybean and soybean meal spot prices are presented [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From January 28 to February 6, data on the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including different varieties) and soybean meal are given [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Data on global and domestic soybean supply - demand from 2016 to 2025 are provided, including harvest area, inventory, output, and consumption [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in Different Regions**: Information on the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026 is presented [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Data on planting area, yield per unit, output, and other aspects of US soybeans from June 2025 to January 2026 are provided, along with data on Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. - **US Soybean Export Inspection and Imported Soybean Arrival Data**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreases month - on - month but increases year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans is at a low level at the beginning of the year and decreases year - on - year recently [45][47]. - **Livestock - Related Data**: The inventory of live pigs increases slightly year - on - year, while the inventory of sows decreases year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The price of live pigs fluctuates slightly, and the price of piglets rebounds slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China increases, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs continues to rise. The domestic pig - raising profit shows a slight profit, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio decline to a low level [56][58][60][62][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The outlook for the US Department of Agriculture's February report shows limited adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet, a slight increase in Brazilian soybean production, and basically unchanged production in Argentina, with an expected neutral impact. Attention should be paid to the new - season US soybean planting area report released by the US Agricultural Outlook Forum this month. As of the end of January, the US soybean export sales progress was 80%, slightly slower than the same period last year. China has achieved its goal of purchasing 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans, and the purchase pace has slowed down. Recently, Trump said that China will additionally purchase 800,000 tons of soybeans this year, boosting the external market. Follow - up purchase trends should be monitored. The US soybean crushing volume continues to increase. Next, attention should be paid to the release of US biodiesel policies. Current bullish expectations support the US soybean oil to be oscillating strongly [3][72]. - Argentina experienced drought concerns in late January, but the recent precipitation forecast has increased, the crop rating is good, and the production forecast remains at the normal level. Brazil's soybean harvesting progress has exceeded 10%, and the subsequent progress will accelerate. Institutions expect the export volume in February to reach 11.42 million tons, a significant increase compared to the same period in previous years. The arrival of domestic soybeans will increase from March to April, and the tight supply expectation will continue to improve [3][72]. - China's soybean purchase plans for the February - March shipping schedules are basically completed, and the purchase plan for the April shipping schedule is about 70% complete, with the overall rhythm being relatively smooth. One week before the Spring Festival, the peak stocking period has passed. The oil - mill startup and crushing rate are expected to gradually decline in the next two weeks. The purchase and trading volume of soybean meal has slowed down, while feed enterprises are still actively picking up goods, and the physical inventory of soybean meal has increased. Currently, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a high level compared to the same period. Market news indicates that the auction of imported soybeans will resume after the Spring Festival, and the supply remains relatively loose [3][72]. - In summary, it is expected that the Dalian soybean meal futures will continue to oscillate in the short term. The high - yield pattern in South America remains unchanged, and as the harvest progresses, the loose supply situation will become apparent. In the medium to long term, the price center is expected to oscillate downward. Next, attention should be paid to the multi - factor effects of post - festival restocking, imported soybean auctions, new US soybean purchases, and the Agricultural Outlook Forum report [3][72][73]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review of Soybean Meal - Since January, both US soybeans and soybean meal have shown range - bound oscillations. At the end of January, the soybean meal contract 05 rose 18 to close at 2,767 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.66%. The spot price of soybean meal in South China rose 40 to close at 3,120 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.3%. The CBOT March US soybean contract rose 17 to close at 1,064.25 cents per bushel, an increase of 1.62%. After the New Year's Day, the purchasing sentiment recovered, and the trading volume increased. With the expected decrease in the arrival of soybeans in the first quarter and a tight supply expectation, the spot price was relatively strong, and the soybean meal price oscillated upward after the festival. In mid - January, the futures price oscillated downward. The restart of the domestic imported soybean auction, with a total of 1.14 million tons of the released volume being fully traded, alleviated the tight supply expectation for the first quarter. The January USDA report was generally bearish. Under the influence of multiple negative factors such as the improvement in trade relations between China and Canada and the reopening of the Canadian rapeseed import window, the price declined. In late January, the soybean meal price oscillated upward and then declined. The hype about the drought in Argentina intensified, the pre - festival stocking demand increased, and the strong sentiment in the metal sector drove the commodity market to strengthen, pushing the futures price to the previous high range. However, the high - yield expectation in Brazil remains unchanged, the export supply has increased, the US soybean export sales rhythm has slowed down, the precipitation forecast in Argentina has increased, and the stocking is coming to an end. Recently, the Dalian soybean meal futures have oscillated downward [9]. 3.2 International Situation 3.2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The January USDA report shows that the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is 425.68 million tons, an increase of 3.14 million tons compared to the December estimate. The global soybean crushing demand is 366.43 million tons, an increase of 1.19 million tons compared to the December estimate. The global soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 124.4 million tons, an increase of 2.04 million tons compared to the previous month. The stock - to - consumption ratio is 29.4%, indicating a slightly looser supply - demand situation [11]. 3.2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The January USDA report shows that the US soybean balance sheet is generally bearish. In the 2025/2026 season, the US soybean yield per acre remains unchanged at 53 bushels, and the production is slightly increased to 4.262 billion bushels. Due to the good crushing performance, the crushing demand is increased by 15 million bushels to 257 million bushels. The export is slower than the same period last year, and concerns remain, so the export demand is decreased by 60 million bushels to 157.5 million bushels. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is 350 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 8.22%, indicating a looser situation compared to the previous month's estimate [14]. 3.2.3 US Soybean Crushing Demand - According to the data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), the US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 was 224.991 million bushels, a 4.1% increase compared to November. Compared with December 2024, it increased by 8.9%. From September to December in the 2025/2026 season, the cumulative US soybean crushing volume was 866.542 million bushels, an 11.5% increase compared to the same period last year. The USDA's estimated growth target for crushing demand in the 2025/2026 season is 5.11%. At the end of November 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.686 billion pounds. Based on the calculation results of the USDA's crushing weekly report, as of the week ending January 23, 2026, the US soybean crushing gross profit was $2.54 per bushel. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at the Illinois soybean processing plant was $300.02 per short ton, and the truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 52.96 cents per pound. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.69 per bushel [17]. 3.2.4 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 819,000 tons. The cumulative export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 33.854 million tons, with a sales progress of 79.0%, compared to 42.683 million tons in the same period last year, with an overall progress of 83.6%. The net purchase volume of China in that week was 233,000 tons. China's cumulative purchase volume this year is 9.65 million tons. Considering the purchases from unknown destinations, China's total purchase of US soybeans this year is 12 million tons [19]. 3.2.5 Brazilian Soybean Situation - The January USDA report shows that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is increased by 3 million tons to 178 million tons, mainly due to the suitable weather conditions during the growth and development stage of Brazilian soybeans. The export demand is increased by 1.5 million tons to 114 million tons, and the crushing demand is increased by 1 million tons to 60 million tons. The ending inventory is 36.91 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 20.69%. According to Brazilian official export data, the Brazilian soybean export volume in December 2025 was 3.38 million tons. From January to December 2025, the cumulative Brazilian soybean export volume was 108.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.38 million tons. The Brazilian National Association of Cereal Exporters predicts that the Brazilian soybean export volume in February will reach 11.42 million tons. As of January 31, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 99.6%, and the harvesting rate was 11.4% [22][23][27]. 3.2.6 Argentine Soybean Situation - The January USDA report shows that the Argentine soybean production in the 2025/2026 season remains unchanged at 48.5 million tons, the export demand remains at 8.25 million tons, the crushing demand remains at 41 million tons, the ending inventory is 22.84 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 40.46%. As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the Argentine soybean sowing work is nearly completed, with 99.5% of the planned sowing area completed. The latest forecast shows that the precipitation in the Argentine production area will increase in the next two weeks, alleviating the drought concerns. As of the week ending January 28, the proportion of soybeans with good or normal crop conditions was 84%, still higher than the same period last year [29][36]. 3.3 Domestic Situation 3.3.1 Imported Soybeans and Other Situations - According to the data from the General Administration of Customs, China's soybean import volume in December 2025 was 8.04 million tons, of which 5.66 million tons were from Brazil, accounting for 70.4%, and 1.65 million tons were from Argentina, accounting for 20.5%. In 2025, the total soybean import volume was 111.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.79 million tons. As of the week ending January 27, 2026, the purchase plan for the February shipping schedule was 9.5 million tons, with 8.86 million tons purchased, a completion rate of 93.2%. The purchase plan for the March shipping schedule was 12 million tons, with 11.59 million tons purchased, a completion rate of 96.6%. The purchase plan for the April shipping schedule was 11.5 million tons, with 6.37 million tons purchased, a completion rate of 55.4% [44]. 3.3.2 Domestic Oil - Mill Inventory - As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.355 million tons, a decrease of 234,900 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 1.9652 million tons compared to the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 930,400 tons, an increase of 31,800 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 449,800 tons compared to the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 3.0932 million tons, a decrease of 968,400 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 290,900 tons compared to the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 6.713 million tons, a decrease of 502,000 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 611,800 tons compared to the same period last year. The national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 309,860 tons, including 57,700 tons of spot trading and 252,160 tons of forward trading. The weekly average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 194,200 tons. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2961 million tons. The soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 11.33 days [48]. 3.3.3 Feed and Aquaculture Situation - The total output of the national industrial feed was 342.253 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. Among them, the output of compound feed was 319.46 million tons, an increase of 8.8%; the output of concentrated feed was 13.381 million tons, an increase of 3.4%; and the output of additive premixed feed was 7.527 million tons, an increase of 8.3%. In terms of varieties, the output of pig feed was 166.394 million tons, an increase of 15.6%; the output of egg - laying poultry feed was 32.82 million tons, an increase of 1.4%; the output of meat - poultry feed was 100.977 million tons, an increase of 3.5%; the output of ruminant feed was 14.758 million tons, an increase of 1.8%; and the output of aquatic feed was 23.231 million tons, an increase of 2.7% [61].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic soybean oil prices in China are expected to continue their upward trend in 2026, supported by international market dynamics and domestic supply-demand factors [1][6] - In 2025, the average price of domestic first-grade soybean oil is projected to be 8,314 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.23% compared to 2024, while the average price of CBOT soybean oil is expected to rise by 11.39% to 49.27 cents per pound [1][6] - The correlation coefficient between CBOT soybean oil prices and China's first-grade soybean oil prices over the past five years is 0.80, indicating a strong positive correlation [1] Group 2 - In 2025, a significant price disparity exists between northern and southern regions of China, with southern prices generally higher due to stronger demand and economic conditions [3][4] - The price gap between southern and northern soybean oil markets narrowed in 2025, primarily due to high palm oil prices affecting demand dynamics [4] - The domestic soybean crushing capacity is expected to continue expanding in 2026, with high import levels of soybeans providing a solid raw material foundation for soybean oil production [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward room requires greater production cuts. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China may discuss the tariff issue of rapeseed products, and the current domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively large, with a weak real - world fundamental situation. However, the inversion of soybean crushing margins provides some support to prices. With both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Market Review - **External Market**: This week, US soybean prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the CBOT soybean March contract closed at 1062.75 cents per bushel, up 16.75 cents per bushel from the previous week, a 1.6% increase. The March - May contract spread of CBOT soybeans was - 12 cents per bushel, up 1.5 cents per bushel from the previous week [9]. - **Domestic Market**: This week, the prices of protein meal rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the soybean meal May contract closed at 2786 yuan per ton, up 37 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 1.37% increase. The rapeseed meal May contract closed at 2391 yuan per ton, up 68 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 2.93% increase. Regarding spreads, the May - September contract spread of soybean meal was - 90 yuan per ton, up 23 yuan per ton from the previous week; the May - September contract spread of rapeseed meal was - 60 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis of the soybean meal May contract was 354 yuan per ton, up 24 yuan per ton from the previous week; the basis of the rapeseed meal May contract was 162 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan per ton from the previous week. The May soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 448 yuan per ton, up 48 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. Industry Information - According to USDA export sales data, as of the week ending January 1st, US soybean exports were 880,000 tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week; the cumulative exports of soybeans in the current year were 28.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.46 million tons. Among them, soybean exports to China in that week were 470,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons from the previous week; the cumulative exports to China in the current year were 6.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97 million tons. - According to MYSTEEL data, as of the week ending January 2nd, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 2.25 million tons, an increase of 1.08 million tons from the previous week; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 8.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 530,000 tons. The operating rate of sample oil mills was 50.75%, a year - on - year increase of 0.14 percentage points; the soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 1.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 450,000 tons. - The USDA will release the December monthly supply - demand data and quarterly inventory report on January 12th. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to visit China from January 13th to 17th, and this visit will focus on four major issues: trade, energy, agriculture, and international security [9]. Fundamental Assessment - The assessment of soybean meal fundamentals shows that there are both bullish and bearish factors. The 5 - month contract basis is + 354 yuan per ton, the US soybean 3 - 5 spread is - 12 cents per bushel, the soybean import crushing margin is - 21 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread is 448 yuan per ton. The international soybean supply is in the South American planting season, the domestic supply has high inventory but is starting to destock, the current apparent consumption is relatively high, and there are also factors such as the Sino - US trade war. The overall conclusion is that with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [11]. Trading Strategy Recommendations - For both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the futures and spot market, including the spot prices of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu, the basis of the main contracts, monthly spreads, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [19][22][25][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report shows charts of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate, with data sources from the USDA and the research center of WK Futures [34][37]. - **Weather Conditions**: Charts of precipitation observations of Brazilian, US, and Argentine soybeans compared with the same period of the year are presented, as well as a summary of the weather conditions in the main soybean - producing areas, with data sources from WORLD AG WEATHER and the research center of WK Futures [40][42]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Multiple charts show the US soybean's current and next - year market - year cumulative contract volume, exports to China, and China's monthly imports of soybeans and rapeseeds, with data sources from the USDA, customs, and the research center of WK Futures [47][50][53]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [56]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export and Shipment to China**: Charts show the monthly export volume of Brazilian soybeans, exports to China, weekly and cumulative shipments to China, with data sources from SECEX, MYSTEEL, and the research center of WK Futures [59][62][65]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Charts of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [70]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Charts of the soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories of coastal major oil mills are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [73]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Charts of the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [76]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: Charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [80]. - **Breeding Profit**: Charts of the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - South American soybean harvest is expected to be abundant, maintaining a loose supply - demand pattern and limiting the upside potential of soybean prices. - The export sales progress of US soybeans is relatively slow, and attention should be paid to the data adjustment in the USDA report. - The market anticipates a tight supply in Q1. With the suspension of imported soybean auctions and the expected pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the spot price remains firm. - It is expected that in January, the Dalian soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate within a certain range [3][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review of Soybean Meal - Since December, the outer - market US soybeans have continuously declined from high levels, and the Dalian soybean meal has oscillated weakly. The inner - market is stronger than the outer - market. - By the end of December, the soybean meal 05 contract dropped 96 to close at 2,754 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.37%. The spot price of South China soybean meal rose 80 to 3,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.67%. - The CBOT US soybeans March contract dropped 98 to close at 1,047.25 cents/bushel, a decline of 8.56%. - The market re - evaluated the export sales progress of US soybeans, which was still significantly slow, causing concerns about export demand. - Favorable weather in South American producing areas led to an upward adjustment of the expected Brazilian soybean output. The structure of near - strong and far - weak continued [9]. 3.2 International Situation 3.2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report showed that the global soybean output in the 2025/2026 season was 422.54 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 790,000 tons. The global soybean crushing demand was 365.24 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 260,000 tons. - The global soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season was 122.37 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons compared with the November estimate. The stock - to - consumption ratio was 29.01%, slightly tightening compared with the previous year. - The overall adjustment of the report was limited, and the supply - demand pattern remained loose [12]. 3.2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report made no adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet, with a neutral impact. - In the 2025/2026 season, the US soybean planting area remained at 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit remained at 53 bushels/acre, the export demand remained at 1.635 billion bushels, the ending inventory remained at 290 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 6.74% [16]. 3.2.3 US Soybean Crushing Demand - According to NOPA data, the US soybean crushing volume in November 2025 was 216.041 million bushels, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% compared with October. - The 2025/2026 season (from September to November) US cumulative soybean crushing volume was 641.551 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. The USDA's estimated growth target for crushing demand in the 2025/2026 season was 4.5%. - At the end of November 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.513 billion pounds [19]. 3.2.4 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 878,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume was 28.58 million tons, with a sales progress of 64.2%, compared with 79.2% in the same period last year. - China's net purchase volume in that week was 470,000 tons, and the cumulative purchase volume this year was 6.89 million tons, compared with 19.04 million tons in the same period last year [22]. 3.2.5 Brazilian Soybean Situation - The December USDA report showed that the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/2026 season remained at 175 million tons, the export demand remained at 112.5 million tons, an increase of 9.35 million tons compared with the previous year, and the crushing demand remained at 59 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. - The ending inventory was 36.36 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 20.68%, with a slightly tightening supply - demand situation. - From January to November 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean export volume was 104.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8 million tons. The cumulative export volume to China was 82.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.77 million tons. - As of the week ending December 27, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 97.9%, and the harvesting progress was 0.1%. The future precipitation in the producing areas was expected to be above normal, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest [26][27][31]. 3.2.6 Argentine Soybean Situation - The December USDA report showed that the Argentine soybean output in the 2025/2026 season remained at 48.5 million tons, and the import remained at 7.7 million tons. - The export demand was 8.25 million tons, the crushing demand was 41 million tons, the ending inventory was 22.84 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 40.46%. - As of the week ending December 30, 2025, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 82%. The future precipitation in the producing areas was slightly lower than normal but had improved significantly compared with the previous period, and the soil moisture was generally good [33][39]. 3.3 Domestic Situation 3.3.1 Imported Soybeans and Other Situations - In November 2025, China's soybean import volume was 8.11 million tons, including 5.85 million tons from Brazil, accounting for 72%, and 1.78 million tons from Argentina, accounting for 22%. - From January to November 2025, the total soybean import volume was 103.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69 million tons. - As of the week ending January 6, 2026, the purchase plan for January shipments was completed, the completion rate for February shipments was 88%, and that for March shipments was 84%. The purchase volume of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was about 10.02 million tons [43]. 3.3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventories - As of the week ending December 26, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.5444 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 679,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 644,400 tons. - The soybean meal inventory was 1.1676 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,500 tons and a year - on - year increase of 464,400 tons. - The unfulfilled contracts were 3.816 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 920,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 277,000 tons. - The national port soybean inventory was 8.251 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 405,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 504,200 tons. - As of the week of New Year's Day, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 204,400 tons, including 87,570 tons of spot trading and 116,830 tons of forward trading. The weekly average daily pick - up volume was 182,200 tons [47]. 3.3.3 Feed and Aquaculture Situation - In November 2025, the national industrial feed output was 28.73 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. - The year - on - year growth rates of compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed were 2.6%, 4.5%, and 0.1% respectively. - The ex - factory prices of major feed products decreased year - on - year, and the ex - factory prices of livestock and poultry compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed mainly decreased month - on - month. - The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 43.8%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 14.0% [54]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook for the Future - China's purchase of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is expected to reach 10 - 11 million tons, with a completion rate of about 90%. The purchase rhythm of US soybeans will slow down. - The US soybean crushing demand may have some upward adjustment space. - The abundant harvest in South America is basically confirmed, limiting the upside of soybean prices. - The domestic oil mill soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but there is an expectation of tightening supply in the future. The basis remains strong, and the spot price rises steadily. - It is expected that in January, the Dalian soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate within a certain range [65][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Soybean Meal Viewpoint - Soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is neutral due to the interaction between the decline of US soybeans, demand improvement, and mixed news. The basis is bullish, inventory is bearish, the price trend on the disk is bearish, the main - position short orders are decreasing with capital inflow (bearish), and the short - term outlook remains oscillating [9]. 2.2. Soybean Viewpoint - Soybean A2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4180 - 4280. The market is neutral as domestic soybeans are affected by the execution of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the price trend on the disk is neutral, the main - position short orders are decreasing with capital inflow (bearish), and the domestic soybean price is supported at the bottom but also suppressed by import volume and domestic yield [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Daily Hints - Soybean meal M2605: 2720 - 2780 range, neutral; basis is bullish, inventory is bearish, disk is bearish, main - position is bearish, short - term oscillation [9]. - Soybean A2605: 4180 - 4280 range, neutral; basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, disk is neutral, main - position is bearish, short - term affected by multiple factors [11]. 3.2. Recent News - The preliminary China - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term bullish for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. The domestic import soybean arrival volume decreased in December, and the soybean meal market returned to range oscillation due to factors such as soybean inventory, demand, and trade negotiations [13]. 3.3. Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1. Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Preliminary China - US trade agreement, no pressure on domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in US and South American soybean - growing regions [14]. - Bearish factors: High domestic import soybean arrival volume in December, and expected high yield of South American soybeans [15]. 3.3.2. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support of imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [16]. - Bearish factors: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased domestic procurement, and new domestic soybean production increase [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data 3.4.1. Price and Transaction Data - From December 23 to 31, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3106 - 3146 yuan, and the daily trading volume ranged from 7.46 - 290,000 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was relatively stable, and there was no trading volume during this period. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [17]. - From December 24 to 31, the prices of soybean futures (including bean - 1 and bean - 2) and soybean meal futures fluctuated, and the prices of corresponding spot products also changed accordingly [19]. 3.4.2. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory from 2015 - 2024 [33]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in harvest area, output, import volume, consumption, and inventory from 2015 - 2024 [34]. 3.4.3. Planting and Harvesting Progress - In 2023/24, the sowing and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [35]. - In 2024, the sowing, growing, and harvesting progress of US soybeans is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [36][37][38][39]. - In 2024/25 and 2025/26, the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [40][41][43][44]. 3.4.4. USDA Supply - Demand Report - USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months show changes in planting area, yield, output, end - of - period inventory, and other data of US soybeans, as well as the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [45]. 3.5. Position Data - No information provided in the content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are large, but near - month purchases are few. With expected low arrivals from February to March and pressured crushing margins, prices are expected to continue oscillating [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In December, CBOT soybean prices dropped significantly. The March contract closed at 1047.25 cents/bushel, down 98 cents/bushel (8.56% decline). In China, December saw falling prices of soybean and rapeseed meal. The May soybean meal contract closed at 2749 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton (3.37% decline), and the May rapeseed meal contract at 2365 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (2.07% decline) [10]. - **Industry Information**: According to USDA data, the estimated global soybean production in December was 422.54 million tons, up 79,000 tons from the previous month. As of December 18, US cumulative soybean exports for the current year were 26.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.05 million tons. In November, Brazil exported 4.2 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 1.64 million tons [10]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The 5 - month contract basis of soybean meal was +290 yuan/ton, and the US soybean 3 - 5 spread was - 13.5 cents/bushel. The soybean import crushing margin was - 81 yuan/ton, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 399 yuan/ton. Overall, the market is expected to continue oscillating [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Prices**: The report presents historical data charts of soybean meal spot prices in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot prices in Huangpu, Guangdong [19][20]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of the May soybean meal contract and the May rapeseed meal contract [22][23]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The report provides charts of the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [25]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Charts show the spreads between the May and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [26][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Charts display the planting progress, emergence rate, leaf - falling rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans [31][32][35]. - **Weather Conditions**: Charts show the precipitation observations of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina compared to the same period of the year [37][38][41]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Charts present the cumulative signing volume, next - year signing volume, exports to China, and monthly imports of soybeans in the US, as well as China's soybean and rapeseed monthly imports [46][48][51]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Charts show the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China [55][56]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: Charts display Brazil's monthly soybean exports, exports to China, weekly and cumulative shipments to China, as well as Argentina's weekly and cumulative shipments to China [58][59][61]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Charts show the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseed in major oil mills [69][70]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills [72][73]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Charts show the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed in coastal areas [75][76]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand**: Charts display the cumulative transactions and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills [79]. - **Breeding Profit**: Charts show the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers [81][82].