短期大豆通关受阻， 豆粕价格增仓上涨 蛋白粕周报 2026/02/28 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润及库存 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 供给端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：（1）据USDA出口销售数据显示，2月12日至2月19日当周美国出口大豆41万吨，当前年度累计出口大豆3565万吨，同比减少783万 吨；其中当周对中国出口大豆8万吨，当前年度对中国累计出口1066万吨，同比减少1008万吨。（2）据巴西国家商品供应公司(Conab)公布 数据显示，截至2月21日，巴西大豆收割率为32.3%，较去年同期减少4.1个百分点，较五年均值为减少4.3个百分点。（3）据MYSTEEL数据显 示，截至2月20日当周，2026年国内样本大豆到港1128万吨，同比增加170万吨；样本大豆港口库存559万吨，同比减少11万吨。（4）据USDA 数据显示，1月预测2025/26年度全球大豆产量为425.67百万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Expected to oscillate within the range of 2710 - 2770. Influenced by the US - China trade deal, South American weather, and domestic demand, it's likely to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **Soybeans (A2605)**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4340 - 4440. Affected by factors such as US - China trade, South American weather, and domestic supply - demand, it will likely stay in a short - term oscillatory state [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal futures return to an oscillatory state, while the spot price remains relatively stable, with the spot premium staying at a relatively high level [23]. - The soybean crushing volume in oil mills returns to a high level, and the soybean meal output in December increases year - on - year [25][50]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills continue to decline, indicating a weakening of stocking demand [27][52]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrows, and the price difference of the 2605 contract fluctuates slightly [29]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean futures are oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - China's import of soybeans in the first quarter continues to decline. The soybean inventory in oil mills remains relatively high in January. With normal weather for South American soybean planting and growth, soybean meal has returned to a short - term oscillatory pattern [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to low expectations for pig restocking. The good demand for soybean meal in January supports its price. Influenced by US soybeans and the recovery of demand, it maintains an oscillatory pattern [13]. - The relatively high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, combined with the potential for weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade agreement, keeps soybean meal in a short - term oscillatory state, awaiting clear US soybean yields and further progress in the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total volume of imported soybeans in January remains relatively high; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [14]. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans leads to an increase in China's purchases; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price of beans [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal** - **Basis**: The spot price is 3030 (in East China), and the basis is 295, indicating a premium over futures [9]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory in oil mills is 94.72 million tons, a 9.27% decrease from last week and a 70.15% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans** - **Basis**: The spot price is 4400, and the basis is 22, a neutral premium over futures [11]. - **Inventory**: The soybean inventory in oil mills is 687.33 million tons, a 3.62% decrease from last week and a 31.81% increase from the same period last year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The short positions of the main force decrease, and funds flow out, indicating a bearish sentiment [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main force switches from long to short, and funds flow out, showing a bearish outlook [11]. 3.6 Other Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From January 29 to February 6, data on the transaction average price, trading volume, and price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Summary**: From January 30 to February 6, prices of soybean futures (including different contracts), soybean meal futures, and soybean and soybean meal spot prices are presented [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From January 28 to February 6, data on the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including different varieties) and soybean meal are given [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Data on global and domestic soybean supply - demand from 2016 to 2025 are provided, including harvest area, inventory, output, and consumption [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in Different Regions**: Information on the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026 is presented [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Data on planting area, yield per unit, output, and other aspects of US soybeans from June 2025 to January 2026 are provided, along with data on Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. - **US Soybean Export Inspection and Imported Soybean Arrival Data**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreases month - on - month but increases year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans is at a low level at the beginning of the year and decreases year - on - year recently [45][47]. - **Livestock - Related Data**: The inventory of live pigs increases slightly year - on - year, while the inventory of sows decreases year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The price of live pigs fluctuates slightly, and the price of piglets rebounds slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China increases, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs continues to rise. The domestic pig - raising profit shows a slight profit, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio decline to a low level [56][58][60][62][64].

豆粕月报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 出口前景提振外盘 连粕整体震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/21 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国农业部2月报告前瞻显示，美豆平衡表调整有限， 巴西大豆产量小幅增加，阿根廷产量基本持平，影响 预计偏中性；关注美国农业展望论坛本月发布的新季 美豆种植面积报告。截至1月底，美豆出口销售进度为 80%，略慢于去年同期，中国采购美豆1200万吨目标达 成，采购节奏放缓。近期特朗普称中国本年度将额外 增加800万吨大豆采购，提振外盘上涨，关注后续采购 动向。美国大豆压榨量维持增势，接下来关注美国生 柴政策发布，当前利多预 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic soybean oil prices in China are expected to continue their upward trend in 2026, supported by international market dynamics and domestic supply-demand factors [1][6] - In 2025, the average price of domestic first-grade soybean oil is projected to be 8,314 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.23% compared to 2024, while the average price of CBOT soybean oil is expected to rise by 11.39% to 49.27 cents per pound [1][6] - The correlation coefficient between CBOT soybean oil prices and China's first-grade soybean oil prices over the past five years is 0.80, indicating a strong positive correlation [1] Group 2 - In 2025, a significant price disparity exists between northern and southern regions of China, with southern prices generally higher due to stronger demand and economic conditions [3][4] - The price gap between southern and northern soybean oil markets narrowed in 2025, primarily due to high palm oil prices affecting demand dynamics [4] - The domestic soybean crushing capacity is expected to continue expanding in 2026, with high import levels of soybeans providing a solid raw material foundation for soybean oil production [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward room requires greater production cuts. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China may discuss the tariff issue of rapeseed products, and the current domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively large, with a weak real - world fundamental situation. However, the inversion of soybean crushing margins provides some support to prices. With both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Market Review - **External Market**: This week, US soybean prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the CBOT soybean March contract closed at 1062.75 cents per bushel, up 16.75 cents per bushel from the previous week, a 1.6% increase. The March - May contract spread of CBOT soybeans was - 12 cents per bushel, up 1.5 cents per bushel from the previous week [9]. - **Domestic Market**: This week, the prices of protein meal rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the soybean meal May contract closed at 2786 yuan per ton, up 37 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 1.37% increase. The rapeseed meal May contract closed at 2391 yuan per ton, up 68 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 2.93% increase. Regarding spreads, the May - September contract spread of soybean meal was - 90 yuan per ton, up 23 yuan per ton from the previous week; the May - September contract spread of rapeseed meal was - 60 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis of the soybean meal May contract was 354 yuan per ton, up 24 yuan per ton from the previous week; the basis of the rapeseed meal May contract was 162 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan per ton from the previous week. The May soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 448 yuan per ton, up 48 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. Industry Information - According to USDA export sales data, as of the week ending January 1st, US soybean exports were 880,000 tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week; the cumulative exports of soybeans in the current year were 28.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.46 million tons. Among them, soybean exports to China in that week were 470,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons from the previous week; the cumulative exports to China in the current year were 6.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97 million tons. - According to MYSTEEL data, as of the week ending January 2nd, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 2.25 million tons, an increase of 1.08 million tons from the previous week; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 8.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 530,000 tons. The operating rate of sample oil mills was 50.75%, a year - on - year increase of 0.14 percentage points; the soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 1.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 450,000 tons. - The USDA will release the December monthly supply - demand data and quarterly inventory report on January 12th. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to visit China from January 13th to 17th, and this visit will focus on four major issues: trade, energy, agriculture, and international security [9]. Fundamental Assessment - The assessment of soybean meal fundamentals shows that there are both bullish and bearish factors. The 5 - month contract basis is + 354 yuan per ton, the US soybean 3 - 5 spread is - 12 cents per bushel, the soybean import crushing margin is - 21 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread is 448 yuan per ton. The international soybean supply is in the South American planting season, the domestic supply has high inventory but is starting to destock, the current apparent consumption is relatively high, and there are also factors such as the Sino - US trade war. The overall conclusion is that with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [11]. Trading Strategy Recommendations - For both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the futures and spot market, including the spot prices of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu, the basis of the main contracts, monthly spreads, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [19][22][25][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report shows charts of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate, with data sources from the USDA and the research center of WK Futures [34][37]. - **Weather Conditions**: Charts of precipitation observations of Brazilian, US, and Argentine soybeans compared with the same period of the year are presented, as well as a summary of the weather conditions in the main soybean - producing areas, with data sources from WORLD AG WEATHER and the research center of WK Futures [40][42]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Multiple charts show the US soybean's current and next - year market - year cumulative contract volume, exports to China, and China's monthly imports of soybeans and rapeseeds, with data sources from the USDA, customs, and the research center of WK Futures [47][50][53]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [56]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export and Shipment to China**: Charts show the monthly export volume of Brazilian soybeans, exports to China, weekly and cumulative shipments to China, with data sources from SECEX, MYSTEEL, and the research center of WK Futures [59][62][65]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Charts of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [70]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Charts of the soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories of coastal major oil mills are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [73]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Charts of the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [76]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: Charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [80]. - **Breeding Profit**: Charts of the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - South American soybean harvest is expected to be abundant, maintaining a loose supply - demand pattern and limiting the upside potential of soybean prices. - The export sales progress of US soybeans is relatively slow, and attention should be paid to the data adjustment in the USDA report. - The market anticipates a tight supply in Q1. With the suspension of imported soybean auctions and the expected pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the spot price remains firm. - It is expected that in January, the Dalian soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate within a certain range [3][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review of Soybean Meal - Since December, the outer - market US soybeans have continuously declined from high levels, and the Dalian soybean meal has oscillated weakly. The inner - market is stronger than the outer - market. - By the end of December, the soybean meal 05 contract dropped 96 to close at 2,754 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.37%. The spot price of South China soybean meal rose 80 to 3,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.67%. - The CBOT US soybeans March contract dropped 98 to close at 1,047.25 cents/bushel, a decline of 8.56%. - The market re - evaluated the export sales progress of US soybeans, which was still significantly slow, causing concerns about export demand. - Favorable weather in South American producing areas led to an upward adjustment of the expected Brazilian soybean output. The structure of near - strong and far - weak continued [9]. 3.2 International Situation 3.2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report showed that the global soybean output in the 2025/2026 season was 422.54 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 790,000 tons. The global soybean crushing demand was 365.24 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 260,000 tons. - The global soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season was 122.37 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons compared with the November estimate. The stock - to - consumption ratio was 29.01%, slightly tightening compared with the previous year. - The overall adjustment of the report was limited, and the supply - demand pattern remained loose [12]. 3.2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report made no adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet, with a neutral impact. - In the 2025/2026 season, the US soybean planting area remained at 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit remained at 53 bushels/acre, the export demand remained at 1.635 billion bushels, the ending inventory remained at 290 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 6.74% [16]. 3.2.3 US Soybean Crushing Demand - According to NOPA data, the US soybean crushing volume in November 2025 was 216.041 million bushels, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% compared with October. - The 2025/2026 season (from September to November) US cumulative soybean crushing volume was 641.551 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. The USDA's estimated growth target for crushing demand in the 2025/2026 season was 4.5%. - At the end of November 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.513 billion pounds [19]. 3.2.4 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 878,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume was 28.58 million tons, with a sales progress of 64.2%, compared with 79.2% in the same period last year. - China's net purchase volume in that week was 470,000 tons, and the cumulative purchase volume this year was 6.89 million tons, compared with 19.04 million tons in the same period last year [22]. 3.2.5 Brazilian Soybean Situation - The December USDA report showed that the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/2026 season remained at 175 million tons, the export demand remained at 112.5 million tons, an increase of 9.35 million tons compared with the previous year, and the crushing demand remained at 59 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. - The ending inventory was 36.36 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 20.68%, with a slightly tightening supply - demand situation. - From January to November 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean export volume was 104.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8 million tons. The cumulative export volume to China was 82.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.77 million tons. - As of the week ending December 27, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 97.9%, and the harvesting progress was 0.1%. The future precipitation in the producing areas was expected to be above normal, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest [26][27][31]. 3.2.6 Argentine Soybean Situation - The December USDA report showed that the Argentine soybean output in the 2025/2026 season remained at 48.5 million tons, and the import remained at 7.7 million tons. - The export demand was 8.25 million tons, the crushing demand was 41 million tons, the ending inventory was 22.84 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 40.46%. - As of the week ending December 30, 2025, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 82%. The future precipitation in the producing areas was slightly lower than normal but had improved significantly compared with the previous period, and the soil moisture was generally good [33][39]. 3.3 Domestic Situation 3.3.1 Imported Soybeans and Other Situations - In November 2025, China's soybean import volume was 8.11 million tons, including 5.85 million tons from Brazil, accounting for 72%, and 1.78 million tons from Argentina, accounting for 22%. - From January to November 2025, the total soybean import volume was 103.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69 million tons. - As of the week ending January 6, 2026, the purchase plan for January shipments was completed, the completion rate for February shipments was 88%, and that for March shipments was 84%. The purchase volume of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was about 10.02 million tons [43]. 3.3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventories - As of the week ending December 26, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.5444 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 679,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 644,400 tons. - The soybean meal inventory was 1.1676 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,500 tons and a year - on - year increase of 464,400 tons. - The unfulfilled contracts were 3.816 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 920,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 277,000 tons. - The national port soybean inventory was 8.251 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 405,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 504,200 tons. - As of the week of New Year's Day, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 204,400 tons, including 87,570 tons of spot trading and 116,830 tons of forward trading. The weekly average daily pick - up volume was 182,200 tons [47]. 3.3.3 Feed and Aquaculture Situation - In November 2025, the national industrial feed output was 28.73 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. - The year - on - year growth rates of compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed were 2.6%, 4.5%, and 0.1% respectively. - The ex - factory prices of major feed products decreased year - on - year, and the ex - factory prices of livestock and poultry compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed mainly decreased month - on - month. - The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 43.8%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 14.0% [54]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook for the Future - China's purchase of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is expected to reach 10 - 11 million tons, with a completion rate of about 90%. The purchase rhythm of US soybeans will slow down. - The US soybean crushing demand may have some upward adjustment space. - The abundant harvest in South America is basically confirmed, limiting the upside of soybean prices. - The domestic oil mill soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but there is an expectation of tightening supply in the future. The basis remains strong, and the spot price rises steadily. - It is expected that in January, the Dalian soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate within a certain range [65][66].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-01-05 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2720至2780区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，南美大豆丰产和中国采购美豆数量不足，美豆短期回归震荡等待 中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美豆 带动和需求改善交互影响，年底需求逐渐进入旺季和现货价格升水支撑盘面，消息面多 空交织短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3060（华东），基差311，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存113.71万吨，上周109.69万吨，环比增加3.66%，去年同期58.28万吨， 同比增加95.11%。偏空 4.盘面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are large, but near - month purchases are few. With expected low arrivals from February to March and pressured crushing margins, prices are expected to continue oscillating [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In December, CBOT soybean prices dropped significantly. The March contract closed at 1047.25 cents/bushel, down 98 cents/bushel (8.56% decline). In China, December saw falling prices of soybean and rapeseed meal. The May soybean meal contract closed at 2749 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton (3.37% decline), and the May rapeseed meal contract at 2365 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (2.07% decline) [10]. - **Industry Information**: According to USDA data, the estimated global soybean production in December was 422.54 million tons, up 79,000 tons from the previous month. As of December 18, US cumulative soybean exports for the current year were 26.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.05 million tons. In November, Brazil exported 4.2 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 1.64 million tons [10]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The 5 - month contract basis of soybean meal was +290 yuan/ton, and the US soybean 3 - 5 spread was - 13.5 cents/bushel. The soybean import crushing margin was - 81 yuan/ton, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 399 yuan/ton. Overall, the market is expected to continue oscillating [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Prices**: The report presents historical data charts of soybean meal spot prices in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot prices in Huangpu, Guangdong [19][20]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of the May soybean meal contract and the May rapeseed meal contract [22][23]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The report provides charts of the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [25]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Charts show the spreads between the May and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [26][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Charts display the planting progress, emergence rate, leaf - falling rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans [31][32][35]. - **Weather Conditions**: Charts show the precipitation observations of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina compared to the same period of the year [37][38][41]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Charts present the cumulative signing volume, next - year signing volume, exports to China, and monthly imports of soybeans in the US, as well as China's soybean and rapeseed monthly imports [46][48][51]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Charts show the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China [55][56]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: Charts display Brazil's monthly soybean exports, exports to China, weekly and cumulative shipments to China, as well as Argentina's weekly and cumulative shipments to China [58][59][61]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Charts show the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseed in major oil mills [69][70]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills [72][73]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Charts show the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed in coastal areas [75][76]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand**: Charts display the cumulative transactions and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills [79]. - **Breeding Profit**: Charts show the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers [81][82].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the price center of soybean futures is expected to move upward. The supply growth rate is lower than the demand, and China's soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to contract, leading to an upward shift in soybean prices [2][58]. - China's total soybean supply will be stable with a slight decline. In 2025/26, the total supply is stable, while in 2026/27, it is expected to decline slightly due to reduced domestic production, slightly increased imports, and decreased beginning stocks [2][58]. - China's soybean demand is stable. Overall soybean consumption is expected to increase steadily, and domestic soybean consumption is expected to transition from "rapid growth" to a "stable" pattern [2][58]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 DCE Soybean Futures Price Review - From January to November 28, 2025, the main contract price of DCE soybean futures showed a "range - bound" pattern. The bullish factors included domestic policy support, concerns about Sino - US trade friction, and USDA's bullish reports, while the bearish factors were state reserve sales, eased Sino - US trade friction sentiment, and new soybean harvest pressure [7][8][9]. 2. 2026 Soybean Futures Price Main Influencing Factors Analysis 2.1 Supply Side: Sufficient Supply with Slowing Growth - **Production**: In 2025, China's soybean production reached a new high. The sown area increased slightly, the yield per unit area reached a record high, and the total output increased by about 1.2% year - on - year. In 2026, the production pressure will be relieved, and domestic production can be adjusted by reducing the sown area, maintaining yield growth, and keeping the total output at around 20 million tons [11][19][20]. - **Carry - over Stocks**: In 2025/26, China's soybean beginning stocks reached a record high, but domestic soybean beginning stocks are expected to decline year - on - year [21]. - **Imports**: In 2024/25, China's soybean imports were high. In 2025/26, imports are expected to remain at a high level but may decline slightly due to poor forward import profits. Looking forward to 2026/27, imports are expected to increase slightly [23][24]. - **Total Supply**: China's total soybean supply is sufficient but with a decreasing increment. In 2025/26, the total supply reached a new high with a slowing growth rate. In 2026/27, it is expected to decline slightly year - on - year [34]. 2.2 Demand Side: Stable Growth - In 2024/25, domestic soybean consumption increased rapidly, mainly due to the low - price effect and domestic encouragement of crushing consumption. In 2025/26, domestic soybean consumption is expected to be stable. Overall soybean consumption is expected to increase steadily, with edible consumption growing steadily and crushing consumption showing annual fluctuations but an overall upward trend [41][42]. 2.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Marginal Contraction - China's soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to contract marginally. From 2025/26 to 2026/27, the ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio are expected to decline, and the domestic soybean balance sheet will also tighten [54]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The supply - demand balance sheet is expected to contract, and soybean prices are likely to move upward. China's total soybean supply will be stable with a slight decline, and demand will be stable. - Investment outlook: Consider the "rolling long positions" strategy. When the price is at a phased low or driven by bullish factors, consider "buying on dips" and "buying hedges to lock in costs." When the price rises to reflect the fundamental bullish factors, consider taking profits on long positions [58][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 2025/26 season, the planting area of new - season US soybeans decreased significantly year - on - year. There is a high possibility of further reducing the yield per unit in January, with an estimated year - on - year decrease of 3 - 5 million tons in production. The CBOT soybean price is expected to have limited downside, with a support level at 1000 - 1050 cents per bushel, and the price center is expected to rise to 1200 - 1300 cents per bushel. South American soybean premiums are expected to be weak [2][210][246]. - In the domestic market, domestic soybean production is expected to increase again in the 2025/26 season. The price of soybean No. 1 is likely to rise in the first quarter of 2026, with an upper limit of 4300 - 4350 yuan per ton, and may be weak in the second and third quarters, with a lower limit of 3750 - 3800 yuan per ton. The market for soybean meal and soybean oil is expected to be strong first and then weak in 2026 [4][220][247]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Sections Part 1: Market Review - **2025 CBOT Soybean Price Bottomed out and Rose**: The long - term cycle of US soybean prices is about 4 - 5 years. In 2025, the price was affected by trade frictions, soybean production, and biodiesel policies. The non - commercial net position of CBOT soybeans turned positive in the second quarter, and the speculative market maintained a bullish sentiment [20][24][27]. - **2025 Chinese Crushed Soybean and Soybean Meal Price Centers Rose**: The prices of soybean No. 2 and soybean meal showed a volatile upward trend. The market changed from "strong reality + weak expectation" before May to "weak reality + strong expectation" after May, mainly affected by factors such as soybean arrivals, trade relations, and biodiesel policies [31]. - **2025 Chinese Soybean Oil Price Rose**: The main - contract price of soybean oil on the DCE found support at 7500 yuan per ton and stabilized above 8000 yuan per ton. It was affected by factors such as soybean arrivals, geopolitical conflicts, and biodiesel policies [43]. - **2025 Chinese Edible Soybean Market Price Strengthened**: The futures price of soybean No. 1 on the DCE ended a three - year decline. The increase was mainly due to the active acquisition by middle - stream traders and the support of state - owned grain reserves. There was a structural supply shortage of high - protein soybeans [47]. Part 2: Global Soybean Supply - Demand Situation Analysis - **Global Oilseed Market Supply is Sufficient**: In the 2024/25 season, global oilseed production increased to 685 million tons, and in the 2025/26 season, it is expected to reach 690 million tons. The growth rate of soybean production has slowed down, while the demand growth rate has increased, and the supply - demand situation has eased [52]. - **US Soybean Supply - Demand is First Loose and Then Tight**: - **Production Decline**: The planting area of new - season US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased significantly, and the yield per unit may also decline. The production is expected to be between 114 - 116 million tons, a decrease of 3 - 5 million tons compared to the previous year [66]. - **Demand Analysis**: US soybean demand mainly comes from crushing and exports. Crushing consumption is affected by biodiesel policies, and exports depend on China's purchases. In recent years, crushing consumption has been strong, while export demand has decreased [76]. - **Supply - Demand Summary**: Due to the decline in production and the increase in crushing consumption, the inventory - consumption ratio of new - season US soybeans may decrease, supporting the upward movement of the CBOT soybean price center in 2026 [93]. - **South American Soybean Premiums Declined**: In 2025, South American soybeans had a good harvest. Brazilian soybean premiums were strong before October but declined later due to Sino - US trade negotiations. The sowing of new - season South American soybeans is going smoothly, and premiums are expected to remain under pressure [94][95][96]. Part 3: Domestic Bean Supply - Demand Situation - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Situation**: - **Continuous Production Increase**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic soybean production is expected to approach 21 million tons, mainly due to the increase in the sowing area in Heilongjiang. The planting cost has decreased, and there are various subsidies [132]. - **Consumption Needs Improvement**: About 90% of domestic soybeans are used for food processing. The demand for domestic non - genetically modified soybeans has room for growth, especially in the crushing sector. The consumption of domestic soybeans is affected by policies and the market [133]. - **Supply - Demand Summary**: In 2025, domestic soybeans had a good harvest, and the supply was sufficient. The price had a strong support at the bottom but lacked the driving force for continuous upward movement [141]. - **Crushed Soybean Supply - Demand Situation**: - **Increased Import Cost**: In 2025, the import cost of soybeans in China increased, mainly due to the rise in the CBOT soybean price, the increase in South American soybean premiums, and the change in the exchange rate. The crushing profit first increased and then decreased [143]. - **Increased Bean Imports and Arrivals**: In 2025, the import and arrival of soybeans in China increased, with a record high in October. The imports of soybean meal and soybean oil were relatively small and had little impact on the market [158][165][167]. - **Beans Inventory Remained at a High Level**: In 2025, the inventory of the domestic crushed soybean industry chain first decreased and then increased. Currently, the inventory of crushed soybeans is at a high level, the inventory of soybean meal is at a relatively low level, and the inventory of soybean oil is around the average level. The inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline in the fourth quarter [169][170][171]. - **Terminal Demand Situation**: - **Soybean Meal Consumption is Expected to Turn from Strong to Weak**: In 2025, the feed production in China increased significantly. However, as the aquaculture industry falls into losses, the production capacity and inventory of pigs and poultry are expected to decline in 2026, and feed consumption is expected to decrease. The substitution of rapeseed meal and wheat for soybean meal has both positive and negative effects, but overall, the feed consumption of soybean meal in 2025 is expected to continue to increase, and it is estimated to decrease to 76.2 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a year - on - year decrease of 2.57% [178][179][180]. - **Soybean Oil Consumption is Weak**: In the 2024/25 season, the edible consumption of oils in China decreased. Since May 2025, the downstream inventory of oils has been inactive. Although the price of soybean oil futures has risen, the overall consumption of oils is still weak, but the consumption share of soybean oil is increasing [198]. Part 4: International Soybean Market Logic and US Soybean Price Judgment - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the impact of the decline in US soybean production, trade relations, and biodiesel policies on the CBOT soybean price, and the expected weak performance of South American soybean premiums [210]. Part 5: Domestic Bean Supply - Demand Balance and Market Judgment - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, including the prediction of the price trend of domestic soybean No. 1, soybean meal, and soybean oil in 2026, and the impact of supply and demand factors [220][221][247]. Part 6: Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis - **Basis Trend is Expected to be Strong First and Then Weak**: The basis of domestic soybean meal in 2025 was weak. In 2026, the basis is expected to be strong in the first quarter and decline after April [230]. - **Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Price Spread is Expected to Remain Low**: Due to the tense Sino - Canadian trade relations and the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed, the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to remain low in 2026 [235]. - **Bean Oil - Meal Ratio is Bearish in the Medium and Long Term**: The supply - side logics of soybean meal and soybean oil are similar, but the demand - side performance is different. The bean oil - meal ratio is expected to rise first and then fall, and short - term long and medium - to - long - term short operations are recommended [238]. Part 7: Main Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - **Comprehensive Judgment and Operational Strategy**: The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, providing specific price ranges and operational suggestions for the price trends of CBOT soybeans, domestic soybean No. 1, soybean meal, and soybean oil in 2026 [246][247][248]. - **Futures and Options Operational Strategy**: In 2026, the soybean meal market is expected to rise first and then fall. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal in the first quarter and take short positions after May Day. The price of soybean oil is expected to be high first and then low. It is recommended to take long positions with a light position or sell out - of - the - money put options in the first quarter and take short positions after May Day [249]. - **Seasonal Trend of Bean Index**: Relevant figures are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. Part 8: Related Stocks - The report lists the price changes of related stocks in 2025, including companies in the feed, soybean planting and trading, aquaculture, and oil processing industries [273].