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豆粕基本面预期强于现实
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基本面预期强于现实 豆粕行情目前先以震荡对待
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-04 06:16
News Summary Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean meal export sales have significantly increased, indicating a potential shift in supply dynamics, while domestic soybean meal inventories are rising due to stable import volumes and higher processing rates at oil mills [1][2]. Group 1: Export and Sales Data - As of the week ending June 26, 2023, U.S. soybean meal export net sales for the 2024/2025 marketing year reached 306,000 tons, up from 94,000 tons the previous week [1] - For the 2025/2026 marketing year, net sales were reported at 397,000 tons, compared to 166,000 tons the prior week [1] - U.S. soybean meal shipments for the 2024/2025 marketing year totaled 238,000 tons, down from 280,000 tons the week before [1] - On July 3, the total soybean meal transaction volume at major oil mills in China was 165,900 tons, a decrease of 288,800 tons from the previous trading day, with spot transactions at 44,100 tons [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - The current import volume of soybeans is stable, and oil mills are increasing their processing rates, leading to a rise in soybean meal inventories [2] - The upcoming deadline for tariff postponement adds uncertainty to U.S.-China trade relations, while favorable U.S. non-farm payroll data may support future price increases [2] - The domestic market is still adjusting to the pressure from the abundant Brazilian soybean harvest earlier this year, with expected import volumes exceeding 10 million tons in June and July [3] - The U.S. soybean planting progress is ahead of schedule, and there are currently no adverse weather conditions to drive speculation [3] - The external market for CBOT soybeans remains above 1,000 cents per bushel, providing cost support amid concerns about trade prospects [3]