豆粕库存压力

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多因素影响 9月豆粕现货均价或逐步回升
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 03:23
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent increase in drought areas in the U.S. soybean production regions has led to a downward adjustment in the 2024/25 U.S. soybean production forecast, raising concerns about supply changes [1][2] - The drought area for U.S. soybeans has increased from 3% to 11% over two weeks, which may lead to further downward adjustments in production estimates, providing upward support for soybean prices [2][4] - U.S. soybean futures prices have shown a slight increase, with the November contract rising from 1042.75 cents per bushel to 1052.75 cents per bushel, reflecting a 1% increase [2] Group 2 - Demand for U.S. soybeans has unexpectedly strengthened, with sales volume increasing to 1.1834 million tons in the week ending August 21, despite the absence of Chinese buyers, indicating strong demand from the EU, Southeast Asia, and Mexico [4] - Recent data shows a reduction in both long and short positions in the soybean futures market, with long positions decreasing by 1,922 contracts to 153,800 contracts, and short positions decreasing by 365 contracts to 135,600 contracts, indicating a consensus around the 1,050 cents per bushel price level [6] - Domestic soybean meal spot prices have been rising, supported by reduced inventory pressure on crushing enterprises, with soybean meal prices expected to gradually rise to 3,200 yuan per ton in September [8][10]