2025 年 8 月 25 日 研 究 鸡蛋：近端关注淘鸡节奏，远端情绪仍偏弱 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 | （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2509 | 2,920 | -0.21 | | -22,993 | -10,271 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,434 | -0.67 | | 2,423 | 7,456 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋9-10价差 | | -113 | | -131 | | | | 鸡蛋9-1价差 | | -514 | | -558 | | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.20 | | 3.30 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.64 | | 2.64 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.00 | | 3.10 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The market dynamics of DCE soybean meal, live pigs, and US soybean prices are influenced by supply and demand patterns, leading to price fluctuations [1] Group 1: DCE Soybean Meal and Live Pig Contracts - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 decreased by 0.03%, closing at 3023 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton [1] - DCE live pig main contract 2509 fell by 55 CNY/ton, closing at 13885 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.39% [1] - The average price of external three-way live pigs nationwide is 13.88 CNY/kg, stable compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: US Soybean Market - CBOT US soybean main contract increased by 0.66%, closing at 995 cents/bushel [1] - The rebound in US soybean futures prices is driven by short covering and cross-market arbitrage [1] - The USDA report indicates that as of August 3, the good-to-excellent rate for US soybeans is 69%, slightly below the previous week’s 70% but above last year's 68% [1] Group 3: Brazilian Soybean Production - Brazil is expected to have a bumper soybean harvest, with farmers' export profits encouraging new planting intentions [1] - Consulting agencies predict that the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will increase by 962,000 hectares to 48.6 million hectares [1] - Brazil has raised biofuel blending standards, increasing the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [1] Group 4: Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic soybean meal M09 maintains a strong trend, with attention on the 3100 CNY level [1] - The main funds are shifting focus to M01 contract, with a temporary resistance level at 3120 CNY due to rising import costs from increased Brazilian price differentials [1] - Despite rising soybean meal spot prices, high oil mill inventories and widespread pressure from traders keep the spot basis low, leading to a subdued market [1] Group 5: Live Pig Supply and Demand - The supply side of live pigs may see a reduction at the beginning of the month, followed by a recovery due to potential weight reduction in slaughtering [1] - A recent meeting on July 23 emphasized implementing capacity control measures, including culling breeding sows and reducing stock [1] - On the demand side, pig supply is sufficient, with some regions experiencing a slight demand recovery, although high temperatures limit pork purchasing willingness [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the report industry investment rating is provided [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The sentiment of the egg market is weak, and the trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2508 is 3,259 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.36% and a trading volume decrease of 1,695 and an open interest decrease of 11,879. The closing price of egg2510 is 3,298 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.96% and a trading volume increase of 36,432 and an open interest increase of 21,483 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 8 - 9 spread is -263, and the egg 8 - 10 spread is -39, compared to -299 and -82 of the previous day respectively [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of eggs in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.00 yuan/jin, 2.93 yuan/jin, 3.10 yuan/jin, and 3.71 yuan/jin respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,329 yuan/ton, down from 2,368 yuan/ton of the previous day. The soybean meal spot price is 2,890 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The live pig price in Henan is 14.33 yuan/kg, up from 13.93 yuan/kg of the previous day [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 indicates the most bearish outlook, and 2 indicates the most bullish outlook [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The expectation of a rebound in the egg market during the peak season has been fulfilled [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2508 is 3,442 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.15%, and a trading volume change of -70,386 and an open interest change of -28,472; the closing price of egg2510 is 3,376 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.42%, and a trading volume change of -2,996 and an open interest change of 253 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 8 - 9 spread is -138, and the egg 8 - 10 spread is 66 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 2.40 yuan/jin, 2.44 yuan/jin, 2.50 yuan/jin, and 2.96 yuan/jin respectively; the corn and soybean meal spot prices are 2,370 yuan/ton and 2,830 yuan/ton respectively; the pig price in Henan is 14.83 yuan/kg [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the range of values from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1]

Report Summary Core View - The report suggests laying out short positions for far - month contracts of eggs [1] Key Points from Different Sections Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2507 is 2,821 with a daily increase of 0.39%, trading volume up by 23,556 and open interest down by 24,067; the closing price of egg2509 is 3,689 with a daily increase of 0.68%, trading volume up by 24,726 and open interest up by 13,625 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is - 745 (previous day: - 740), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is - 868 (previous day: - 870) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: In different regions, the latest spot prices are as follows: 2.60 yuan/jin in Liaoning (previous day: 2.90), 2.53 yuan/jin in Hebei (previous day: 2.56), 2.70 yuan/jin in Shanxi (previous day: 2.90), 2.93 yuan/jin in Hubei (previous day: 3.00) [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The latest corn spot price is 2,339 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,313), the latest soybean meal spot price is 2,820 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,860), and the latest pig price in Henan is 14.98 yuan/kg (previous day: 14.93) [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers within [- 2,2] where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The far - month outlook for eggs is weak [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2507 is 2,857 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 3.28%, a trading volume decrease of 3,008, and an open interest decrease of 1,336; for egg2509, the closing price is 3,630 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.98%, a trading volume increase of 9,781, and an open interest increase of 11,347 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is - 712 (previous day: - 682), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is - 773 (previous day: - 726) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: In terms of egg spot prices, the price in Liaoning is 3.00 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; in Hebei, it is 2.60 yuan/jin (previous day: 2.62 yuan/jin); in Shanxi, it is 3.00 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hubei, it is 3.09 yuan/jin (previous day: 3.07 yuan/jin). Corn spot price is 2,310 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,313 yuan/ton), and the soybean meal spot price is 2,920 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,940 yuan/ton). The pig price in Henan is 14.63 yuan/kg (previous day: 14.43 yuan/kg) [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2) Core View - The report focuses on the egg market, stating that the negative impact of the plum - rain season has been released, and it is waiting for the confirmation from the culling of laying hens. The trend intensity is rated as 0, indicating a neutral view [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg 2507 is 2,833 yuan/500 kilograms with a daily increase of 0.25%, and the trading volume decreased by 62,198 and the open interest decreased by 10,284. The closing price of egg 2509 is 3,655 yuan/500 kilograms with a daily decrease of 0.49%, and the trading volume decreased by 22,386 while the open interest increased by 5,704 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is - 680 (previous day: - 678), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is - 822 (previous day: - 837) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of eggs in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 2.70 yuan/jin, 2.56 yuan/jin, 2.80 yuan/jin, and 2.96 yuan/jin respectively. The spot prices of corn and soybean meal are 2,303 yuan/ton and 2,880 yuan/ton respectively. The price of live pigs in Henan is 14.08 yuan/kg [1]. b. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), indicating a neutral view on the market [1].

Report Overview - The report is about the egg market on June 4, 2025, provided by Guotai Junan Futures [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The report presents the latest data on egg fundamentals and the industrial chain, but no clear core view is explicitly stated [1] Summary by Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2507 is 2,897 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.16%, and trading volume decreased by 21,187 and open interest decreased by 8,968. The closing price of egg2509 is 3,722 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.80%, and trading volume increased by 3,141 and open interest increased by 1,374 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is -676 (previous day: -680), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is -825 (previous day: -819) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The latest spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 2.90 yuan/jin, 2.58 yuan/jin, 2.90 yuan/jin, and 3.02 yuan/jin respectively. The previous day's prices were 2.95 yuan/jin, 2.58 yuan/jin, 3.00 yuan/jin, and 2.96 yuan/jin respectively [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The latest corn spot price is 2,316 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the latest soybean meal spot price is 2,900 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day), and the latest Henan pig price is 14.35 yuan/kg (down 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day) [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1]