二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 03 月 01 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 xieyiqin@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周CBOT豆类期货价格继续上涨。 一方面，市场预计中国对特朗普承诺的加购800万吨大豆将会认真执行，对美豆出口抱有较高的期待， 支撑较强。另一方面，EPA提交RVO提案，市场对上调生柴掺混量有所预期，给油脂市场带来支撑；最后，南 美南部地区的降水依然不足，可能对部分地区大豆单产形成损害，当然我们也应该看到巴西收割速度开始加 快，其丰产格局基本可以确定，且USDA年度展望论坛预计2026年美国大豆种植面积增加380万英亩等因素对 美豆价格形成压制。 总体看，美豆价格继续维持区间震荡的概率较大。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 美豆周度报告 所 期货研究 1.美豆总体观点与多空逻辑 图表1：美豆总体观点与多空逻辑 总体观点 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；需求有望好转，下方空间有限，总体震荡偏强，区间1000-1200美分/蒲式耳 空方逻辑 1、中国购买美豆后，特朗普政府对生柴添加政策的支持力度可能减弱 2、巴西进入收割阶 ...

| | | 国产大豆期货方面表现为减仓小幅回调。国产大豆现货方面较之节前小幅上涨。国产大豆和进口大豆价差在2月 份快速扩大之后，今日从高位开始回调。美盘太豆价格从近期的高点回落，春节期间美国生柴政策预期乐观以 及美豆新作平衡表供需结构同比收紧，外盘表现偏强。不过美国关税政策存在抗动,虽然最高法院驳回了美国 总统此前的关税计划,但随后美总统宣布将全球进口商品临时关税提高至15%,因此对于美豆的出口需求方面产 生了新的变数。后续持续关注政策端的导向。 【大豆&豆粕&菜粕】 美国时间周二，总统特朗普新推出的10%的全球关税开始生效,这标志着白宫开始采取行动,以延续特朗普的贸 易议程，日前特朗普威胁要将税率提高至15%、但截至10%的税率生效之时，尚未正式发布行政令提高税率。今 日美豆受此拖累走弱，连粕亦跟随下跌。春节假期美豆延续偏强格局，短期美豆出口数据以及压榨数据表现较 好,继续提振美豆价格。对于26/27年度美豆的供需平衡表展望,显示出大豆面积同比增加,单产处于历史高 位，出口和压榨均同比增长，大豆期末库存微增，库存消费比同比下降，奠定了新一年度的供需结构同比收紧 的状态,美国市场呈现油强于粕的状态。 【豆油& ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: February 9, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Soybean Meal Contracts**: For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 2988, the opening price was 2998, the highest price was 3016, the lowest price was 2983, the closing price was 2997, with an increase of 9 and a rise - fall rate of 0.30%. The trading volume was 41,502, and the open interest was 205,351, a decrease of 18,122. For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2730, the opening price was 2737, the highest price was 2748, the lowest price was 2729, the closing price was 2735, with an increase of 5 and a rise - fall rate of 0.18%. The trading volume was 637,898, and the open interest was 2,156,556, a decrease of 55,549. For the soybean meal 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2696, the opening price was 2700, the highest price was 2710, the lowest price was 2698, the closing price was 2702, with an increase of 6 and a rise - fall rate of 0.22%. The trading volume was 42,403, and the open interest was 497,245, a decrease of 11,081 [6] - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract approaching 1100 cents. The rebound was due to news that after the call between Chinese and US leaders, Trump praised the good relationship with China on social media and revealed that China would increase the purchase of US soybeans from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. However, due to Trump's inconsistent statements, the market priced it cautiously and awaited verification from weekly export data [6] - **South American Market**: In Brazil, the soybean production is set, and the harvest is accelerating. In the next month, large - scale harvesting is expected, which may put pressure on FOB quotes. In Argentina, the early weather was dry, but the latest forecast shows normal rainfall and cool climate in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for yield recovery [6] Operational Suggestions - Given the volatile weather in Argentina and international trade policies during holidays, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions next week [6] Group 3: Industry News - The US Treasury Department issued a proposed 45Z rule on Tuesday to regulate how biofuel producers can obtain a $1 - per - gallon tax credit for low - carbon fuels (including aviation fuel). However, some issues remain unanswered, such as the composition of the revised climate model that may affect fuel eligibility and the implementation of the foreign raw material ban [7] Group 4: Data Overview - **USDA Pressing Data**: In December, the US soybean pressing volume reached 229.9 million bushels (equivalent to 6.896 million short tons), a 4.2% increase from November and a 5.6% increase from December 2024. It was the second - highest monthly pressing volume, second only to October 2025 [14] - **Crop Expert Forecast**: The expected soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/26 season is 48 million tons, lower than the previous week's forecast of 49 million tons and the USDA's current estimate of 48.5 million tons. The southern planting area in Argentina has become drier recently, with insufficient rainfall in the coming weeks. The expected soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season remains at a record 179 million tons and may be maintained or increased in the future [14]

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: February 5, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Market Review - **Soybean meal futures contracts**: - For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3047, the opening price was 3050, the highest price was 3053, the lowest price was 2973, the closing price was 3002, with a decline of 45 and a decrease rate of 1.48%. The trading volume was 181,273, the open interest was 287,070, and the open interest change was -71,019 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2756, the opening price was 2756, the highest price was 2759, the lowest price was 2721, the closing price was 2727, with a decline of 29 and a decrease rate of 1.05%. The trading volume was 1,085,590, the open interest was 2,153,812, and the open interest change was 64,761 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2704, the opening price was 2703, the highest price was 2709, the lowest price was 2686, the closing price was 2691, with a decline of 13 and a decrease rate of 0.48%. The trading volume was 44,976, the open interest was 484,107, and the open interest change was 10,962 [6]. 3. Core Views - **External market (US soybeans)**: The US soybean futures contracts were weak, with the main contract close to 1055 cents. There was a rebound in the previous period due to the digestion of negative factors. Although the January USDA report raised the ending stocks of the new US soybean season, the price was already significantly below the US soybean planting cost, so the downside was relatively limited. The weekly US soybean export data was good for two consecutive weeks, and there were relatively positive expectations for biodiesel policies, leading to a small - scale rebound. However, fundamentally, due to the basically determined high - yield pattern of Brazilian soybeans, the subsequent supply pressure would always put downward pressure on the market. If US soybean exports weakened or the weather in Argentina improved, the external market might continue to fall below 1050 cents [7]. - **Domestic soybean meal**: The 05 and subsequent contracts were priced based on the external market cost. Since there was a lack of potential positive factors in the CBOT, the overall trend was range - bound, and the rebound was slightly bearish. The risk was that if the subsequent auction of imported soybeans fell short of expectations, it might drive the spot price to rise unexpectedly, which could have a small positive impact on the 05 contract [7]. 4. Industry News - The US Treasury Department issued the 45Z proposed rules on Tuesday to regulate how biofuel producers can obtain a $1 - per - gallon tax credit for low - carbon fuels (including aviation fuels), providing more certainty for producers of ethanol, biodiesel, and other products seeking tax credits. However, analysts pointed out that there were still some unresolved issues in the regulations [10]. - The USDA's monthly soybean crushing data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in December reached the second - highest level in history. The December crushing volume was 229.9 million bushels (equivalent to 6.896 million short tons), a 4.2% increase from November's 220.5 million bushels and a 5.6% increase from December 2024's 217.7 million bushels. The December crushing volume was the second - highest monthly crushing volume, second only to the 236.3 million bushels in October 2025 [10]. - Crop experts estimated the 2025/26 Argentine soybean production at 48 million tons, lower than the previous week's forecast of 49 million tons and the USDA's current estimate of 48.5 million tons. The southern planting area in Argentina has recently become drier, with insufficient rainfall for most of the next few weeks, which requires close attention. The expected 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production remained unchanged at a record 179 million tons, with a tendency to maintain or increase the forecast in the future [10][11]

Group 1: General Information - Industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Contracts**: For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the pre - settlement price was 3074, the opening price was 3075, the highest price was 3083, the lowest price was 3065, the closing price was 3080, with a rise of 6 and a rise rate of 0.20%. The trading volume was 94,600, the open interest was 445,770, and the open interest change was - 22,460. The soybean meal 2605 contract had a pre - settlement price of 2766, an opening price of 2769, a highest price of 2789, a lowest price of 2765, a closing price of 2782, a rise of 16 and a rise rate of 0.58%. The trading volume was 793,254, the open interest was 2,184,028, and the open interest change was 5,766. The soybean meal 2607 contract had a pre - settlement price of 2711, an opening price of 2710, a highest price of 2728, a lowest price of 2707, a closing price of 2726, a rise of 15 and a rise rate of 0.55%. The trading volume was 36,632, the open interest was 451,000, and the open interest change was 6,146 [6] - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contracts rebounded, with the main contract approaching 1075 cents. The previous rebound was due to the digestion of negative factors. Although the January USDA report raised the end - of - season inventory of US soybeans in the new season, the price was far below the planting cost, so the downside was limited. Also, the weekly export data of US soybeans was good for two consecutive weeks, and there were relatively positive expectations in the biodiesel policy. However, fundamentally, due to the basically determined high - yield pattern of Brazilian soybeans, the subsequent supply pressure would always put pressure on the market. If US soybean exports weakened or the weather in Argentina improved, the external market might fall below 1050 cents [6] Operation Suggestions - The domestic soybean meal 05 and subsequent contracts are priced according to the external cost. Since there is a lack of potential positive factors in CBOT, the overall situation is a range - bound oscillation, with a slightly bearish view on rebounds. The risk is that if the subsequent auction of imported soybeans fails to meet expectations, it may drive the spot price to rise more than expected, which may have a slight driving effect on the 05 contract [6] Group 3: Industry News - **Brazil**: As of last Thursday, the harvesting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 4.9% of the planting area. The expected output of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop was raised to 181 million tons from the previous 180.4 million tons. If the weather is favorable later, the global supply of grains and oilseeds will be more abundant. The initial harvesting and planting progress are in line with the seasonal pattern, and the future market focus will shift to the confirmation of unit yield and changes in the weather in the producing areas [9] - **China's Purchase Progress**: As of January 27, the cumulative purchase of the January shipment was 4.704 million tons, with a purchase progress of 100%. The cumulative purchase of the February shipment was 8.858 million tons, with a purchase progress of 93.24%. The cumulative purchase of the March shipment was 11.588 million tons, with a weekly increase of 594,000 tons and a purchase progress of 96.57%. The cumulative purchase of the April shipment was 6.373 million tons, with a weekly increase of 1.249 million tons and a purchase progress of 55.42%. The cumulative purchase of the May shipment was 3.141 million tons, with a weekly increase of 198,000 tons and a purchase progress of 27.31%. The cumulative purchase of the June shipment was 2.384 million tons, with a weekly increase of 330,000 tons and a purchase progress of 21.67%. The cumulative purchase of the July shipment was 726,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 132,000 tons and a purchase progress of 7.41%. The cumulative purchase of the August shipment was 198,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 66,000 tons and a purchase progress of 2.2% [9] - **Argentina**: Recently, the temperature in Argentina soared to nearly 40 degrees Celsius, and the main agricultural areas urgently need rainfall, but significant precipitation is not expected until February. Due to weather concerns, the estimated output of Argentine soybeans was lowered by 2 million tons to 47 million tons. The predicted output of Brazilian soybeans is 179 million tons, higher than the previous prediction of 178 million tons. However, it was emphasized that the Brazilian soybean crop still faces risks, and high - temperature and drought weather may affect the output [10] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures included are about the spread between soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between soybean meal 5 - 9 contracts, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][15][16]

Report Overview - Report Date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Core Viewpoints - The external market of US soybean futures contracts fluctuated, with the main contract approaching 1065 cents. The upward movement at the end of December was due to reaching a key support level and a year - on - year decrease in US soybean ending stocks, while the main pressure came from the approaching South American harvest. Brazilian soybean is in a crucial growth stage, with sufficient rainfall in major producing areas, and some institutions have raised the production forecast to over 180 million tons [6]. - In the domestic market, soybean meal rebounded before the festival. Rumors of delayed customs clearance and oil mill shutdowns spread. Although the current inventory is high, the pressure is expected to ease from February to March. The 03 contract has been significantly stronger than the 05 contract and the external CBOT soybean. Given the difficulty in disproving the expectation of reduced pressure by the end of the first quarter, this trend may continue. However, due to the approaching Brazilian harvest, the 05 and subsequent contracts may not see significant rebounds [6]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price were all 3124, with no change. The trading volume was 125, and the open interest decreased by 125. For the 2603 contract, the closing price was 3117, up 11 (0.35%), with a trading volume of 184,645 and an open - interest increase of 10,646. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 2790, up 4 (0.14%), with a trading volume of 776,412 and an open - interest increase of 31,923 [6]. 2. Industry News - **USDA Reports**: On January 13, the USDA will release monthly supply - demand and quarterly inventory reports. Market estimates suggest a 0.24 - billion - bushel decrease in US soybean production to 42.29 billion bushels, a 0.3 - bushel decrease in yield to 52.7 bushels per acre, and a 0.13 - billion - bushel increase in ending stocks to 3.03 billion bushels, implying a decrease in export volume [9]. - **Argentine Soybean Sowing**: As of January 7, the sowing of the 2025/26 Argentine soybean crop was 88.3% complete, up from 82% a week ago. 85% of the sown area was in suitable to optimal moisture conditions, down from 96.1% a week ago. 40% of the first - season soybeans entered the reproductive stage, and 10% were in the flowering stage. The sowing progress of second - season soybeans reached 84% of the intended area [9][10]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: The National Grain Trading Center announced an auction of 1.1396 million tons of soybeans on January 13 [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, but specific data values are not detailed in the given text [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In normal circumstances, the price of soybean meal futures is expected to rise steadily in 2026. If there is adverse weather, the price may enter an upward cycle [2]. - The price of US soybeans is expected to rise steadily due to the tight supply - demand balance sheet. The Brazilian soybean premium is neutral, and the price of soybean meal is affected by US soybean prices, Brazilian premiums, and weather factors [2][118][119]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. 2025 DCE Soybean Meal Futures Price Review - From January to April 8, 2025, the price of soybean meal futures rose. The reasons included the bullish USDA report in January, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade frictions [6]. - From April 9 to November 28, 2025, the price entered an "interval operation" pattern, mainly trading "Sino - US trade sentiment", with five trading bands affected by trade news and market sentiment [7]. 2. 2026 Soybean Meal Futures Price Main Influencing Factors Analysis 2.1 Raw Material Soybean Supply and Demand: Tight US Supply, Neutral South American Supply - **US Soybean Balance Sheet: Tight Supply - Demand in the Inventory Reduction Cycle** - In 2025/26, US soybean supply decreased due to reduced planting, while demand decreased due to trade frictions. Supply decline was greater than demand, leading to a tight balance sheet [15]. - In 2026/27, the US soybean balance sheet is expected to remain tight. Planting area may increase slightly, supply and demand will both expand, but supply growth will be lower than demand, and ending stocks will decline [29][30]. - **South American Soybean Balance Sheet: Neutral, First Contracting, Then Loosening** - In 2025/26, the Brazilian soybean balance sheet slightly contracted, and it is expected to be loose in 2026/27. The Argentine balance sheet slightly contracted in 2025/26 and is expected to be slightly loose in 2026/27 [32][33][48]. - **Weather's Impact on the Balance Sheet** - Abnormal weather can lead to a tight balance sheet and price increases. Currently, La Nina weather is expected to last until February 2026 and turn ENSO neutral from January to March 2026, which may affect South American soybean production [51]. 2.2 Soybean Meal Supply: Stable or Slightly Decreasing due to Declining Import Profits - In 2025, China's soybean imports and soybean meal production were high, but the operating rate was low due to low profits and temporary shortages. In 2026, soybean imports may be stable or slightly decrease due to poor import profits, which may affect soybean meal supply [55][73]. 2.3 Soybean Meal Demand: Stable or Slightly Decreasing due to Declining Breeding Profits - In 2025, soybean meal demand was good, with stable growth in livestock and poultry breeding, increased feed production, and a rising proportion of soybean meal addition. In 2026, demand may be stable or slightly decrease due to declining breeding profits, a possible decline in the scale of livestock and poultry breeding, and a slight decrease in the proportion of soybean meal use [96][97]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The price of US soybeans is expected to rise steadily, the Brazilian soybean premium is neutral. In normal weather, the balance sheets of Brazil and Argentina have minor contradictions. Adverse weather may tighten the balance sheets and drive up prices. Domestic soybean meal supply and demand may slightly contract, and the spot price may be slightly stronger [118][119][120][121][122]. - Investment strategy: Focus on the "buying on dips and trading in bands" strategy. Pay attention to possible driving events such as trade policies, adverse weather, and USDA reports [123].

Report Overview - **Industry**: Soybean Meal [1] - **Date**: December 2, 2025 [2] - **Research Team**: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's November monthly supply - demand report slightly lowered the ending inventory to 290 million bushels, which is slightly bearish. The NOPA's October crushing data exceeded expectations, and the new - season crushing demand remains high. The external market may oscillate at a high level, lacking a clear driving force, and attention should be paid to China's actual soybean purchases and South American weather. [6] - Domestic soybean meal fluctuates at a high level following CBOT soybeans. It is supported by cost increases and low crushing profits, but there is inventory pressure. Without additional external bullish factors, the upward pressure will increase. [6] - In terms of operations, the recent fluctuations may decrease, and it should be treated as a high - level oscillation. For options, pay attention to the straddle double - selling strategy. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review** - The external market of US soybean futures contracts oscillated, with the main contract at 1130 cents. The USDA's November report adjusted the yield and export volume, slightly lowering the ending inventory. The NOPA's October crushing data was the highest in a single - month history. [6] - Domestic soybean meal followed CBOT soybeans to oscillate at a high level and returned to the cost - pricing model of CBOT soybeans after the Sino - US agreement. [6] - **Operation Suggestions** - Treat it as a high - level oscillation, and the recent fluctuations may decrease. Consider the straddle double - selling strategy for options. [6] 3.2 Industry News - As of the week ending October 16, US soybean export sales increased by 1.108 million tons, and the export shipments increased by 150% compared to the previous week. [7][9] - The overall growth of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop indicates that the yield potential in most regions will be lower than that in 2024/25. The current sowing progress is 86.97%. [9] 3.3 Data Overview - No specific data overview content is summarized in the report, only mentions data sources. [20][21]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic futures contracts**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3013, the opening price was 3021, the highest price was 3027, the lowest price was 3007, the closing price was 3012, down 1 or -0.03%, with a trading volume of 677,574 and an open interest of 1,511,379, a decrease of 37,971. For the 2603 contract, the closing price was 2988, down 5 or -0.17%. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 2803, down 7 or -0.25% [6]. - **External market**: The US soybean futures contract was weak, with the main contract at 1140 cents. The USDA's November monthly supply - demand report slightly lowered the ending inventory to 290 million bushels, which was bearish. The NOPA's October crushing data was much higher than expected, reaching a record high for a single - month [6]. Core View - The external market has exhausted its short - term bullish factors but is supported by low inventory. It may oscillate at a high level. Domestic soybean meal has a relatively solid support below but faces inventory pressure. To break through the upper resistance, it needs additional bullish factors from the external market [6]. Operation Suggestions - In the near term, the volatility may decrease, and it should be treated as a high - level oscillation. For options, pay attention to the straddle double - selling strategy [6]. Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96% [9]. - On November 18, private exporters reported selling 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would be a record 177.7 million tons, and the 2026 export volume would reach 111 million tons [10].

Group 1: Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The USDA's November monthly supply - demand report adjusted the production, crush, and supply - demand for 24/25 and 25/26 soybean years. The adjustment of the export item in the report indicates a lack of confidence in China's full - scale purchase of US soybeans, causing short - term adjustment in CBOT soybeans. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the decline of foreign markets. Its future trend depends on China's import data of US soybeans [6] Group 4: Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Contract Quotes**: The "Soybean Meal 2601" contract closed at 3041 yuan, down 10 yuan or 0.33% from the previous settlement; "Soybean Meal 2603" closed at 3008 yuan, up 8 yuan or 0.27%; "Soybean Meal 2605" closed at 2832 yuan, up 15 yuan or 0.53% [6] - **USDA Report**: The 24/25 ending stocks decreased from 330 million bushels to 316 million bushels. For the 25/26 year, the yield per acre was lowered from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, and the export item was reduced by 0.5 bushels to 1.635 billion bushels. The ending stocks of 290 million bushels were higher than market expectations [6] - **China - US Trade Agreement**: China is required to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually for the next 3 years. However, the USDA's adjustment of the export item shows a lack of confidence in China's full - scale purchase [6] - **Market Outlook**: CBOT soybeans may have a short - term adjustment. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the decline of foreign markets. It may regain its upward trend if China's import of US soybeans improves; otherwise, it will return to the previous range - bound pattern [6] 2. Industry News - **US 2025/26 Soybean Data**: The yield per acre decreased from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels; the production decreased from 4.301 billion bushels to 4.253 billion bushels; the crush remained unchanged at 2.555 billion bushels; the export decreased from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels; the ending stocks decreased from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels [7][8] - **Global 2025/26 Soybean Meal Data**: The production is expected to be 286.418 million tons, a decrease of 1.32 million tons from the previous estimate. The ending stocks are expected to be 18.271 million tons, an increase of 0.117 million tons. The export is expected to be 81.548 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. Argentina's export is expected to decrease by 1.1 million tons, while Brazil's is expected to increase by 0.8 million tons [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, 01 contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [14][16]