十一长假期间，全球金融市场风险事件不断，美国政府停摆进入第八天，日本和法国政治变动冲击市 场；美国政府关门，非农数据推迟发布；OPEC 11月供应量增幅与10月持平，为13.7万桶/日，增产幅度低 于预期；美联储9月认为就业市场风险上升，仍对通胀保持警惕。 美国股市继续高歌猛进，三大股指再创纪录新高，市场对降息的预期仍在支撑股市；日本股市飙升至历 史新高，高市早苗当选自民党党kui激发宽松想像；香港股市创逾四年新高，科技股继续发力。美元指数 触及逾两个月高位，日元兑美元触及2月中旬以来最低。 大宗商品方面，LME期铜创下16个月新高，受助于供应紧张；美国期金突破4000美元再创纪录新高，因 美联储降息押注和全球不确定性；油价跌至四个月低点，市场担忧供应过剩及OPEC 增产；美豆期货触底 反弹，一度跌破10美元关口。 **美元升至逾两个月高位** 美元指数在十一期间表现强劲，触及逾两个月高位。日元兑美元触及2月中旬以来最低，对日本增加财政 支出的担忧加剧，欧元则因法国政局的不确定性而下跌。自高市早苗周六当选日本执政党自民党总裁以 来，日元持续走软。高市早苗预计将出任日本首相，她承诺通过积极财政支出来提振经济，并 ...

蛋白粕 | 季报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 期货从业资格证号： F03113318 期货投资咨询证书： Z0018777 2025 年 9 月 23 日 远期进口体量尚未定，多种情景推演防风险 2025 年 1-9 月粕类油脂期货行情分析、展望： （一）美豆与豆粕 2025 年四季度供需与择时，或与 2018 四季度，有对比参考性。 2018 年 7 月中国对美豆 25%开始生效，美国 USDA 在月报和农户 MFP 补贴上迅速调整。直至 9 月，美国对中国出口大豆，累计为 0； 中国农业部等专家预估 18/19 全年大豆供给缺口约 500 万吨，但市场 企业预计缺口达 1500 万吨。豆粕在 9 月迎来上涨，约 15%。 广金期货研究中心 农产品研究员 苏航 2018 年 12 月初，中美领导人团队在阿根廷 G20 峰会见面，中方 签署了大豆采购协议，由国务院相关单位确定规模，至少 800 万吨。 当年，豆粕 1901 在 10 月末就开始下跌了，跌回 9 月初的位置。 最近，Trump 称 10 月底将与中方在韩国见面，计划明年访华…… 【若中方 25/26 采购美 ...

| | 收盘价 | 上日 涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油12(BMD) | 4369.00 | 0. 41 | -1. 64 | | 布伦特12(ICE) | 66. 01 | -0.06 | 0. 21 | | 美原油11(NYMEX) | 62. 34 | -0. 03 | 0. 27 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1011. 25 | -1.44 | 0. 27 | | 美豆箱12(CBOT) | 280. 20 | -1. 41 | 0. 25 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 49. 63 | -1.90 | 0. 38 | | | 最新价 | 漆跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 97.29 | -0. 36 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 1106 | -0. 03 | | | 马未林吉特(NYR/USD) | 4. 2040 | 0. 13 | | | 印尼卢比(IDR/USD) | 16575 | 0. 44 | | | 巴西里亚尔( ...

General Information - Reported industry: Bean meal [1] - Report date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Bean Meal Contracts**: The contract prices of domestic bean meal decreased. For example, the closing price of Bean Meal 2601 was 3042, down 45 or -1.46% from the previous settlement; Bean Meal 2509 closed at 2919, down 104 or -3.44%; and Bean Meal 2511 closed at 3013, down 44 or -1.44%. [6] - **Foreign Market**: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract at 1040 cents. The USDA's September monthly supply - demand report had a slight negative impact, but the market reaction was limited. The market is focused on the China - US economic and trade consultations in Spain this week, which may affect the export of CBOT soybeans and the supply of domestic bean meal. [7] Operation Suggestions - In the short term, due to the poor USDA September report and potential trade changes, there is a strong sentiment among bulls to leave the market and wait. The market is expected to be in low - level oscillation. If there is no new news from the consultations this week, the futures may rebound, but the pressure on spot supply will persist in the short and medium term. In the long term, the import cost is expected to rise. [7] 2. Industry News - **USDA Report**: In September, the expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season was 4.301 billion bushels, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.271 billion bushels; the expected ending inventory was 300 million bushels, up from the previous 290 million bushels. [7][10] - **Agricultural Rural Ministry Report**: In September, it was estimated that China's soybean imports in the 2024/2025 season would be 104 million tons, an increase of 5.76 million tons from the previous estimate, mainly due to improved oil - mill crushing profits. The soybean crushing volume was also adjusted upwards to 98.9 million tons. The supply - demand forecast for the 2025/2026 season remained unchanged from the previous month. [10] - **USDA System Upgrade**: The US Department of Agriculture plans to launch an upgraded system for its export net sales report on October 23, and the first weekly sales report using the new system will be released on October 30. [11] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures related to bean meal, including the ex - factory price of bean meal, the basis of the Bean Meal 01 contract, the spread between Bean Meal 1 - 5, the spread between Bean Meal 5 - 9, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate. [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent increase in drought areas in the U.S. soybean production regions has led to a downward adjustment in the 2024/25 U.S. soybean production forecast, raising concerns about supply changes [1][2] - The drought area for U.S. soybeans has increased from 3% to 11% over two weeks, which may lead to further downward adjustments in production estimates, providing upward support for soybean prices [2][4] - U.S. soybean futures prices have shown a slight increase, with the November contract rising from 1042.75 cents per bushel to 1052.75 cents per bushel, reflecting a 1% increase [2] Group 2 - Demand for U.S. soybeans has unexpectedly strengthened, with sales volume increasing to 1.1834 million tons in the week ending August 21, despite the absence of Chinese buyers, indicating strong demand from the EU, Southeast Asia, and Mexico [4] - Recent data shows a reduction in both long and short positions in the soybean futures market, with long positions decreasing by 1,922 contracts to 153,800 contracts, and short positions decreasing by 365 contracts to 135,600 contracts, indicating a consensus around the 1,050 cents per bushel price level [6] - Domestic soybean meal spot prices have been rising, supported by reduced inventory pressure on crushing enterprises, with soybean meal prices expected to gradually rise to 3,200 yuan per ton in September [8][10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It focuses on commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products, as well as currency exchange rates and central bank policies [1][2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Currency exchange rates such as the US dollar index and various currency pairs are also provided [1]. Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are given for different regions. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans are also included [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions** - US soybean - producing states are expected to have mostly lower - than - normal temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median from August 27th to 31st. The Midwest had rain and temperature drops over the weekend, and the 6 - 10 - day outlook shows a mix of dry and rainy conditions with lower - than - normal temperatures. Brazil's 9 - month rainfall pattern is weak, and the region will become warmer [3][5][6]. - **International Supply and Demand** - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, and exports increased by 37.19%. CBOT futures contracts had changes in long and short positions. Pro Farmer predicts high yields for US corn and soybeans. Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to increase by 3%, and Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production and planting area are also expected to rise. Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase by 12.9% [9][11]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand** - On August 22nd, the total trading volume of domestic soybean oil and palm oil increased by 3% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill operating rate decreased slightly. The self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit increased, while the profit from purchasing piglets remained in the red. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased slightly [13][14]. Macro - economic News - **International News** - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 91.1%. Powell's speech at Jackson Hole opened the door for a September rate cut. Canada decided to cancel some retaliatory tariffs on US goods [16]. - **Domestic News** - On August 22nd, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards. The central bank conducted 3612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 1232 billion yuan on that day and 13652 billion yuan for the week. On August 25th, the central bank will conduct 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. From January to July 2025, the country absorbed 4673.4 billion yuan of foreign investment [18][19]. Fund Flows - On August 22nd, the futures market had a net inflow of 144.8 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 16.11 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net inflow of 160.91 billion yuan. The report also lists the fund flows of various futures contracts [22]. Arbitrage Tracking No specific content is provided in the given report for this section.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy futures markets, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, and capital flow data. It also provides insights into international and domestic supply - demand dynamics for various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and grains. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are provided, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, BMD palm oil 11 closed at 4529.00 with a previous - day decline of 0.51% and an overnight increase of 0.71% [1]. - Exchange rate data for major currencies are also presented, such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.22 with a decline of 0.05% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. For example, DCE palm oil 2601 in North China had a spot price of 9820 with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included, with Brazilian soybeans having a CNF premium of 307 cents per bushel and a CNF quote of 495 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from August 25 - 29 indicates that temperatures will be below normal and precipitation will mostly be near to below the median. Some parts of the US Midwest will experience rainfall and temperature drops [4][6]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 increased by 17.5% according to AmSpec and 13.61% according to ITS compared to the same period last month [7]. - Indonesia plans to increase its crude palm oil production from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030 [8]. - Nebraska's soybean pod count is at a 22 - year high, while Indiana's is slightly lower than 2024 but higher than the three - year average [9]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 20, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 79,066 tons, a 152% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 114,900 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from the previous day [14]. - China's palm oil imports in July 2025 decreased by 47.22% month - on - month and 46.79% year - on - year. Soybean imports decreased by 4.86% month - on - month but increased by 18.39% year - on - year. Rapeseed imports decreased by 4.61% month - on - month and 56.63% year - on - year [14][15]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 81.9% [16]. - The Eurozone's CPI annual rate in July was 2%, and the monthly rate was 0%. The Indonesian central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points [17]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On August 20, the US dollar/CNY exchange rate was 7.1384, up 25 points (CNY depreciation). The Chinese central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan [19]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On August 20, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 3.705 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 12.337 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital inflow of 16.042 billion yuan [23]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Information - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The 8 - month USDA supply - demand balance report for US soybeans in 2025/26 is unexpectedly bullish. Assuming the area estimate is reasonable, the pressure on the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet will be significantly reduced. With good weather, the room for further increase in yield per unit is shrinking, and most of the weather - related bearish factors have been digested. Although China may stop purchasing new - season US soybeans, US export demand may not decline significantly. New - season US soybeans will only be slightly loose, and the CBOT soybean low may have appeared, with future trends expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [6]. - Domestic soybean meal prices rose following the external market. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed and the high - tariff policy on Canadian rapeseed products are bullish for soybean meal. Although China will continue to purchase Brazilian soybeans, the import cost may increase, so soybean meal is expected to remain bullish in the medium term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3167, the opening price was 3158, the highest price was 3164, the lowest price was 3131, the closing price was 3160, with a decrease of 7 and a decline rate of 0.22%. The trading volume was 1,059,141, the open interest was 2,098,746, and the open interest decreased by 9,162 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3115, the opening price was 3105, the highest price was 3117, the lowest price was 3080, the closing price was 3116, with an increase of 1 and an increase rate of 0.03%. The trading volume was 205,158, the open interest was 313,228, and the open interest decreased by 76,626 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3149, the opening price was 3141, the highest price was 3147, the lowest price was 3108, the closing price was 3143, with a decrease of 6 and a decline rate of 0.19%. The trading volume was 147,959, the open interest was 573,773, and the open interest decreased by 19,396 [6]. - The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1035 cents. The USDA's August supply - demand balance report showed that the estimated harvested area of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 80.1 million acres (market expectation: 82.561 million acres), the yield per unit was expected to be 53.6 bushels per acre (market expectation: 52.9 bushels per acre), and the production was expected to be 4.292 billion bushels (market expectation: 4.365 billion bushels). The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season in August was 290 million bushels (July estimate: 310 million bushels, market expectation: 349 million bushels) [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the CBOT soybean to have reached its low point, with future trends expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. Domestically, soybean meal is expected to remain bullish in the medium term [6]. 2. Industry News - Not provided 3. Data Overview - **Pro Farmer's Forecast**: In 2025, the average number of soybean pods per 3x3 square - foot area in Ohio is expected to be 1,287.28 (2024: 1,229.93, three - year average: 1,204.83). In South Dakota, it is expected to be 1,188.45 (2024: 1,025.89, three - year average: 970.10) [11]. - **USDA Pressing Weekly Report**: As of the week ending August 15, 2025, the US soybean pressing profit was $2.91 per bushel, a 5.8% decrease from the previous week. In 2024, the average pressing profit was $2.44 per bushel, lower than the $3.29 per bushel in 2023. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at Illinois soybean processing plants was $287.98 per short ton (equivalent to $6.70 per bushel). The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 53.49 cents per pound (equivalent to $6.31 per bushel). The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.32 per bushel (last week: $9.98 per bushel) [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new - crop US soybean balance sheet is tight, and under the change of current Sino - US trade, the Brazilian premium is expected to have upward space. With the expectation of rising import costs, M01 is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to relevant news about Argentine soybeans and the results of the Pro Farmer inspection [5][6][7] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - On August 19, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian and Rizhao was 47, in Tianjin it was - 13, and the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was - 43, in Dongguan - 133, in Zhanjiang - 73, and in Fangcheng - 93, all with a decline of - 13. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 41, with an increase of 10. The M9 - 1 spread was - 48, and the RM9 - 1 spread was 74. The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 435, with an increase of 23, and the spread of the main contract was 343 [4][5] 3.2 International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1325. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium (continuous month) and the import soybean disk gross profit are shown in the corresponding charts. The Brazilian disk crushing profit was 307 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2 [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - The inventory of soybeans at Chinese ports and the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills are presented in the corresponding charts. The inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises are also shown in the charts. The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, the speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed down but is still in the inventory - accumulation cycle, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased [5][7] 3.4开机和压榨情况 - The operating rate and soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are presented in the corresponding charts [5] 3.5 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield per acre from 52.5 to 53.6 bushels per acre, but unexpectedly reduced the planting area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. It also raised the old - crop exports and continued to reduce the new - crop exports to 1.705 billion bushels. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was reduced from 310 million bushels in the July forecast to 290 million bushels. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans this week was 68%. The rainfall in the production areas in the next two weeks is expected to be low, which may lead to a decline in the good - to - excellent rate. The expected arrival volume of soybeans in China from August to September is over 10 million tons, and soybean meal is still in the inventory - accumulation cycle. The purchase of ships from October to January is slow, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current Sino - US trade policy [5][6] - Demand: The short - term high inventory of pig and poultry breeding supports the feed demand, but the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the supply of pigs in the future. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. Wheat substitutes for corn in some areas, reducing the use of protein. The downstream trading of soybean meal this week was cautious [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products, along with important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macroeconomic news, and capital flows in the market. It details price changes, production, consumption, and trade data to assist in understanding the market trends of these commodities [1][2][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, and related products are provided. Also, the latest prices and percentage changes of currency indices and exchange rates are given [1]. 2. Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and changes of imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2]. 3. Important Fundamental Information 3.1产区Weather - US soybean - producing states' future weather (August 20 - 24) shows that most areas will have above - normal temperatures and half of the regions will have precipitation close to the median. The Midwest will experience temperature increases and varying precipitation patterns, which may impact crops differently [4][6]. 3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased significantly compared to the same period in July according to AmSpec and ITS. Indonesia will crack down on illegal palm plantation activities. CFTC持仓 reports show changes in positions of various agricultural products. North American field surveys on corn and soybeans will be conducted. NOPA data indicates US soybean crushing and soybean oil inventory in July. Canadian and Ukrainian agricultural production and harvest progress are also reported. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index shows different trends for different types of ships [8][9][10]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 15, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased significantly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal also changed, and the oil mill's开机 rate decreased slightly. The actual soybean crushing volume in the 33rd week was lower than expected. Pig - raising profits and agricultural product wholesale prices showed certain changes [14][15]. 4. Macroeconomic News 4.1 International News - US economic data such as inflation expectations, manufacturing index, consumer confidence index, retail sales, import prices, industrial output, and business inventory are reported [17]. 4.2 Domestic News - The RMB exchange rate, central bank's open - market operations, national economic data, monetary policy report, and a WTO lawsuit against Canada are presented [19]. 5. Capital Flows - The capital flow data of major futures varieties on August 15 are provided, including the net inflow and outflow of funds in different types of futures such as commodity futures and stock index futures [21][22]. 6. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.