Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In normal circumstances, the price of soybean meal futures is expected to rise steadily in 2026. If there is adverse weather, the price may enter an upward cycle [2]. - The price of US soybeans is expected to rise steadily due to the tight supply - demand balance sheet. The Brazilian soybean premium is neutral, and the price of soybean meal is affected by US soybean prices, Brazilian premiums, and weather factors [2][118][119]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. 2025 DCE Soybean Meal Futures Price Review - From January to April 8, 2025, the price of soybean meal futures rose. The reasons included the bullish USDA report in January, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade frictions [6]. - From April 9 to November 28, 2025, the price entered an "interval operation" pattern, mainly trading "Sino - US trade sentiment", with five trading bands affected by trade news and market sentiment [7]. 2. 2026 Soybean Meal Futures Price Main Influencing Factors Analysis 2.1 Raw Material Soybean Supply and Demand: Tight US Supply, Neutral South American Supply - **US Soybean Balance Sheet: Tight Supply - Demand in the Inventory Reduction Cycle** - In 2025/26, US soybean supply decreased due to reduced planting, while demand decreased due to trade frictions. Supply decline was greater than demand, leading to a tight balance sheet [15]. - In 2026/27, the US soybean balance sheet is expected to remain tight. Planting area may increase slightly, supply and demand will both expand, but supply growth will be lower than demand, and ending stocks will decline [29][30]. - **South American Soybean Balance Sheet: Neutral, First Contracting, Then Loosening** - In 2025/26, the Brazilian soybean balance sheet slightly contracted, and it is expected to be loose in 2026/27. The Argentine balance sheet slightly contracted in 2025/26 and is expected to be slightly loose in 2026/27 [32][33][48]. - **Weather's Impact on the Balance Sheet** - Abnormal weather can lead to a tight balance sheet and price increases. Currently, La Nina weather is expected to last until February 2026 and turn ENSO neutral from January to March 2026, which may affect South American soybean production [51]. 2.2 Soybean Meal Supply: Stable or Slightly Decreasing due to Declining Import Profits - In 2025, China's soybean imports and soybean meal production were high, but the operating rate was low due to low profits and temporary shortages. In 2026, soybean imports may be stable or slightly decrease due to poor import profits, which may affect soybean meal supply [55][73]. 2.3 Soybean Meal Demand: Stable or Slightly Decreasing due to Declining Breeding Profits - In 2025, soybean meal demand was good, with stable growth in livestock and poultry breeding, increased feed production, and a rising proportion of soybean meal addition. In 2026, demand may be stable or slightly decrease due to declining breeding profits, a possible decline in the scale of livestock and poultry breeding, and a slight decrease in the proportion of soybean meal use [96][97]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The price of US soybeans is expected to rise steadily, the Brazilian soybean premium is neutral. In normal weather, the balance sheets of Brazil and Argentina have minor contradictions. Adverse weather may tighten the balance sheets and drive up prices. Domestic soybean meal supply and demand may slightly contract, and the spot price may be slightly stronger [118][119][120][121][122]. - Investment strategy: Focus on the "buying on dips and trading in bands" strategy. Pay attention to possible driving events such as trade policies, adverse weather, and USDA reports [123].

行业 豆粕 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 日期 2025 年 12 月 2 日 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic futures contracts**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3013, the opening price was 3021, the highest price was 3027, the lowest price was 3007, the closing price was 3012, down 1 or -0.03%, with a trading volume of 677,574 and an open interest of 1,511,379, a decrease of 37,971. For the 2603 contract, the closing price was 2988, down 5 or -0.17%. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 2803, down 7 or -0.25% [6]. - **External market**: The US soybean futures contract was weak, with the main contract at 1140 cents. The USDA's November monthly supply - demand report slightly lowered the ending inventory to 290 million bushels, which was bearish. The NOPA's October crushing data was much higher than expected, reaching a record high for a single - month [6]. Core View - The external market has exhausted its short - term bullish factors but is supported by low inventory. It may oscillate at a high level. Domestic soybean meal has a relatively solid support below but faces inventory pressure. To break through the upper resistance, it needs additional bullish factors from the external market [6]. Operation Suggestions - In the near term, the volatility may decrease, and it should be treated as a high - level oscillation. For options, pay attention to the straddle double - selling strategy [6]. Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96% [9]. - On November 18, private exporters reported selling 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would be a record 177.7 million tons, and the 2026 export volume would reach 111 million tons [10].

Group 1: Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The USDA's November monthly supply - demand report adjusted the production, crush, and supply - demand for 24/25 and 25/26 soybean years. The adjustment of the export item in the report indicates a lack of confidence in China's full - scale purchase of US soybeans, causing short - term adjustment in CBOT soybeans. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the decline of foreign markets. Its future trend depends on China's import data of US soybeans [6] Group 4: Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Contract Quotes**: The "Soybean Meal 2601" contract closed at 3041 yuan, down 10 yuan or 0.33% from the previous settlement; "Soybean Meal 2603" closed at 3008 yuan, up 8 yuan or 0.27%; "Soybean Meal 2605" closed at 2832 yuan, up 15 yuan or 0.53% [6] - **USDA Report**: The 24/25 ending stocks decreased from 330 million bushels to 316 million bushels. For the 25/26 year, the yield per acre was lowered from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, and the export item was reduced by 0.5 bushels to 1.635 billion bushels. The ending stocks of 290 million bushels were higher than market expectations [6] - **China - US Trade Agreement**: China is required to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually for the next 3 years. However, the USDA's adjustment of the export item shows a lack of confidence in China's full - scale purchase [6] - **Market Outlook**: CBOT soybeans may have a short - term adjustment. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the decline of foreign markets. It may regain its upward trend if China's import of US soybeans improves; otherwise, it will return to the previous range - bound pattern [6] 2. Industry News - **US 2025/26 Soybean Data**: The yield per acre decreased from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels; the production decreased from 4.301 billion bushels to 4.253 billion bushels; the crush remained unchanged at 2.555 billion bushels; the export decreased from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels; the ending stocks decreased from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels [7][8] - **Global 2025/26 Soybean Meal Data**: The production is expected to be 286.418 million tons, a decrease of 1.32 million tons from the previous estimate. The ending stocks are expected to be 18.271 million tons, an increase of 0.117 million tons. The export is expected to be 81.548 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. Argentina's export is expected to decrease by 1.1 million tons, while Brazil's is expected to increase by 0.8 million tons [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, 01 contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [14][16]

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 豆粕：美农报告落地，市场情绪反馈不佳 美农11月USDA报告显示，2025年美国大豆单产预计为每英亩53蒲，大豆产量预期为42.53亿蒲，单产和 产量均有小幅下调。数据调整符合市场前期下调判断，但调整幅度不及预期，叠加市场已提前消化。报 告公布后，美豆期货价格下调明显。卓创资讯认为，美豆期货价格下行，传导至国内成本支撑减弱，预 计本周豆粕现货价格跟随下行，持续关注中国对美豆进一步采购动向。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities, including palm oil, soybean, and their by - products. It also details important fundamental information such as weather in crop - producing areas, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and macro - economic news both globally and in China. Additionally, it shows the capital flow in the futures market and provides an arbitrage tracking overview. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4150.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.68% and an overnight increase of 0.27% [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of multiple currency pairs like the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. are given. For instance, the US dollar index is at 99.44, down 0.12% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For example, for DCE palm oil 2601 in North China, the spot price is 8890, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for imported soybeans from different regions such as the US Gulf, US West, and Brazil are presented. For example, the CNF premium for US Gulf soybeans is 250 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 506 dollars per ton [4]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Producing Area Weather - Brazil will continue to have rainfall this week with temperatures near normal. Different states have different weather patterns, and later in the week, southern Brazil may become drier [5]. - Argentina may have precipitation in the next two days, but the weather may turn drier later. If the temperature rises, the weather conditions for corn and soybeans may change significantly [5]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - CIMB Securities predicts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will increase by 4.0% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons in November due to a 10% month - on - month decline in exports, and production is expected to fall by 8.0% month - on - month to 1.88 million tons after peaking in October [7]. - SPPOMA data shows that from November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and production decreased by 2.16% month - on - month [7]. - As of November 10, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 12.25 million kiloliters, and the government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025 [7]. - Analysts' average prediction for the global 2025/26 soybean ending stocks in the USDA November report is 124.21 million tons, with a range of 122.5 - 126 million tons, compared to the USDA's September estimate of 123.99 million tons [7]. - Analysts' average prediction for the US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.266 billion bushels, with a range of 4.152 - 4.336 billion bushels; the average predicted yield is 53.1 bushels per acre, with a range of 51.7 - 54.0 bushels per acre; and the average predicted ending stocks are 304 million bushels, with a range of 187 - 494 million bushels [8]. - Anec expects Brazil's soybean exports in November to reach 4.26 million tons and soybean meal exports to reach 2.47 million tons, both higher than the previous week [8]. - Secex data shows that Brazil exported 1.1774562 million tons of soybeans in the first week of November, with an average daily export volume 75% higher than that of November last year [8]. - Imea data shows that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from November 3 - 7 was 459.16 Brazilian reals per ton, lower than the previous week [9]. - As of November 9, 2025/26, the EU's palm oil imports were 1.01 million tons, soybeans imports were 4.15 million tons, and rapeseed imports were 1.31 million tons, all lower than the same period last year [9]. - The EU is considering delaying the implementation of its zero - deforestation law by one year to December 2026 [9]. - Germany's rapeseed industry association predicts that the winter rapeseed planting area in 2026 will be between 1.1 - 1.15 million hectares, almost unchanged from 2025 [9]. - On Tuesday, the Baltic Dry Index fell slightly due to a decline in Capesize ship freight rates. The Capesize ship freight index decreased by 2.2%, while the Panamax ship freight index increased by 1.1% [10]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 11, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 40,000 tons, a 1% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 314,100 tons, an increase of 120,500 tons from the previous day. The overall oil mill operating rate was 53.51%, a 2.55% decrease from the previous day [12]. - From November 3 - 7, 2025, the average weekly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces and municipalities was 16.04 yuan per kilogram, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease and a 27.9% year - on - year decrease [12]. - On November 11, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.57, a 0.01 - point decrease from the previous day, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.67, a 0.01 - point increase from the previous day. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.11 yuan per kilogram, a 0.1% decrease from the previous day [12]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.6%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.4%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 53.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 27.7% [14]. - ADP data shows different estimates of private - sector employment changes. One series shows a weekly decrease of 11,250 jobs in the four weeks ending October 25, while another series predicts an increase of 42,000 jobs in October [15]. - The US House Rules Committee will hold a meeting on November 11 (EST) to advance the government funding plan for a vote the next day [15]. - The year - on - year growth rate of US red - book commercial retail sales in the week ending November 3 was 5.9%, higher than the previous value of 5.7% [15]. - The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in October was 98.2, lower than the expected 98.5 and the previous value of 98.8 [15]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On November 11, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0866, with a 10 - point increase (yuan depreciation) [17]. - On November 11, the People's Bank of China conducted 403.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan after 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases matured [17]. - The PBC's Q3 2025 monetary policy report proposes to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, and improve the monetary policy framework [17]. - The US has suspended the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026, which is an important measure to implement the consensus of the China - US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations [17]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On November 11, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 2.554 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 5.118 billion yuan, including 795 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 463 million yuan in chemical futures, a net outflow of 622 million yuan in black - series futures, and 4.483 billion yuan in metal futures. Stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 7.44 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net capital outflow of 356 million yuan [20]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific information provided in the given text about arbitrage tracking.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: The stock index futures are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, while the bond market sentiment is not weak, but the upward space of bond futures is limited [20][23]. - **Agricultural Products**: The protein meal has support in the near - term, while the long - term is under pressure. The sugar price is expected to be volatile. The oil and fat sector is in a bottom - grinding stage. Corn and its starch are in a strong - side volatile state. The pig price is expected to be under pressure, and peanuts are in a short - term bottom - shock state. Egg prices may have limited upside, and apple prices are mainly stable. Cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [26][31][35][38][42][46][51][54]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are in a range - bound state. Coking coal and coke are expected to be adjusted in the short - term and offer buying opportunities after a pullback. Iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective, and ferroalloys' previous short positions can be reduced [57][60][63][64]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Precious metals are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Copper is in a short - term shock state. Alumina prices may rebound slightly but face pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to be stronger in a volatile state. Zinc requires attention to export volume, lead is in a range - bound state, and nickel prices are expected to weaken in a volatile manner [67][70][74][77][79][86][89][93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index futures followed the spot market to strengthen. The trading volume and open interest of some varieties changed. The market sentiment is optimistic, and the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. The trading strategies include not chasing high, building long positions on dips, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads on dips [19][20][21]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond futures closed mostly higher on Monday. The market funds tightened, but the bond market showed resilience. The upward space of bond futures is limited. The trading strategies include waiting and holding short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread and considering long positions on the T - contract current - next quarter spread [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The export prospects of US soybeans have improved, providing support. The domestic soybean meal has supply uncertainties, with strong near - term support and long - term pressure. Rapeseed meal is expected to be in a shock state [26]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production in major producing areas is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Domestically, the sugar price is expected to be in a range - bound state, with limited downward space due to policy support [31]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: In October, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased as expected. The oil and fat sector is in a bottom - grinding stage, and there may be a technical rebound in the short - term [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn spot price is strong, and the futures are in a strong - side volatile state [36][38]. - **Pigs**: The pig price is generally in a downward trend. The overall supply pressure still exists, and the pig price is expected to be under pressure [39][40]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the 01 contract is in a short - term bottom - shock state. The 05 contract can be considered for short - term long positions [41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand for eggs has improved slightly, but the supply of laying hens is still at a high level, and the upside space of egg prices is limited [44][46]. - **Apples**: New apples are gradually being stored, and the price is mainly stable. The inventory is expected to be lower than last year, but the current futures price is at a high level, so it is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton picking is coming to an end. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [53][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of rebar is increasing, and the steel price is in a range - bound state. The supply and demand structure suppresses the steel price, but there is support at the bottom due to environmental protection [57]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market drive is not obvious in the short - term, and it is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner. In the medium - term, there are buying opportunities after a pullback [60]. - **Iron Ore**: The terminal demand is weakening, and the supply is at a high level. The iron ore price is expected to be in a high - level bearish operation [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply and demand of ferroalloys are weakening at the margin, but the cost provides support. The previous short positions can be reduced [64]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The market's liquidity expectation has improved, and precious metals are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner [67]. - **Copper**: The short - term copper price is in a shock state. The supply is tightening, and the demand is warming up [70][71][73]. - **Alumina**: The supply and demand of alumina are still in significant surplus. The price may rebound slightly, but it faces pressure from the basis [77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There are still concerns about overseas supply, and the aluminum price is expected to be stronger in a volatile manner [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Affected by the cost and demand, the cast aluminum alloy price will maintain a strong - side volatile state with the aluminum price [85]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the export volume of zinc [86]. - **Lead**: The lead price is in a range - bound state, and it may decline with the increase of social inventory [89][90]. - **Nickel**: The cost of nickel has loosened, and the nickel price is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [93].

Report Summary 1. Core View - Multiple positive factors are concentrated, and Laibo leads the protein sector [1] - Due to import cost increase and low rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventory, it is recommended to gradually take profits on early low - position long orders and not chase high for new orders. Meanwhile, be aware of the expected increase in soybean arrivals and sufficient oilseed supply in the fourth quarter [7] 2. Key Points by Category Import Cost - After the details of the fifth round of China - US economic and trade negotiations were released, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans before January next year and guarantee an annual purchase of 25 million tons for three years. The US soybean futures price has effectively stood above 1100 cents and is expected to reach 1200 cents [7] Inventory Status - As of the end of the 44th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 0.0 million tons, the same as last week and compared with 743,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 800,000 tons. As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal was 800,000 tons, the same as last week; the contract volume was 700,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from last week, a 17.65% decline [7] Supply Outlook - The expected increase in soybean arrivals and sufficient oilseed supply in the fourth quarter (29 million tons) have gradually dispelled the expectation of supply shortage in the first quarter [7]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The industry under study is the soybean meal industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The international market is affected by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade talks, the US government shutdown, and the progress of Brazilian soybean sowing. The domestic market is relatively weak compared to the external market. Future trends depend on the outcome of the negotiations, with expected increased volatility next week. It is recommended that investors hold empty or light positions, and aggressive investors can consider the option double - buying strategy [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For domestic soybean meal contracts, the prices of contracts such as soybean meal 2601, 2603, and 2511 all rose slightly. The external market of US soybean futures contracts was relatively strong, with the main contract at 1060 cents. The domestic soybean meal had a low - level volatile and slight rebound this week but was weaker than the external market [6] - The external market was affected by Sino - US economic and trade talks near the tariff increase date, the US - India agreement, and the US government shutdown. In South America, the sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil was progressing normally and faster than last year. The domestic market was affected by the uncertainty of importing US soybeans and the inability to confirm potential positive factors due to the US government shutdown [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the outcome of the current round of negotiations. It is expected that the volatility will increase next week. It is recommended that investors hold empty or light positions, and aggressive investors can consider the option double - buying strategy [6] 3.2 Industry News - The International Grains Council (IGC) expects the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season to decrease by 1 million tons to 428 million tons year - on - year, the trade volume to increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, the consumption to decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons, and the ending stocks to decrease by 4 million tons to 79 million tons [9] - As of the week of October 21, about 39% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year [9] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) reported that last week (October 12 - 18), Brazil exported 1,660,345 tons of soybeans, 608,879 tons of soybean meal, and 1,437,346 tons of corn. This week (October 19 - 25), it plans to export 1,864,454 tons of soybeans, 440,243 tons of soybean meal, and 2,009,332 tons of corn [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global vegetable oil demand in the 2025/26 period is expected to reach a record high, with the import volume of eight major oils increasing by 3.1 million tons to 94.5 million tons. The main driving force for the import increase is the expected 6.1 million - ton rise in global vegetable oil consumption, more than twice that of the previous year. However, vegetable oil prices will still face pressure in 2025/26 [10]. - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy may significantly reduce its exportable palm - oil supply, and the global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely heavily on sunflower oil [11]. - The weather in the US and Brazil will have an impact on crop growth and harvesting. In the US, future rainfall may help relieve drought but may also delay crop harvesting; in Brazil, the current dry weather is beneficial for farmers' field operations [6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Futures quotes: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 01 (BMD) is 4466.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.36% and an overnight decrease of 0.09% [1]. - Currency quotes: The latest prices and percentage changes of the US dollar index and various currencies against the US dollar are provided, including the US dollar index at 98.92 with a 0.05% increase [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices and basis information for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are given. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9330, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of 0 [3]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are provided, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans at 285 cents per bushel and the CNF quote at 483 dollars per ton [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - Production Area Weather - US soybean - producing states: The future weather (October 28 - November 1) in most of the US soybean - producing states will have temperatures above normal and precipitation above the average. In addition, frost may occur in some areas in the Midwest in the coming days, and precipitation may delay crop harvesting [4][6]. - Brazil: The current dry weather in Brazil is beneficial for farmers' field operations. A new front will bring showers to the southern and central regions this weekend and early next week, which is generally favorable for soybean planting [7][8]. - International Supply and Demand - Global vegetable oil: The expected increase in global vegetable oil demand in 2025/26 is mainly due to the strong demand from the biodiesel industries in the US, Indonesia, and Brazil. However, traditional exporters may reduce their exports, and Indonesia's biodiesel policy is an unstable factor [10]. - Palm oil in Indonesia: If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the amount of palm oil used for blending will increase, and the exportable supply will decrease significantly [11]. - Soybean: The IGC predicts that the global soybean output in 2025/26 will decrease by 1 million tons to 428 million tons, the trade volume will increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, and the consumption will decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons [12]. - Domestic Supply and Demand - Commodity trading volume: On October 23, the trading volume of soybean oil was 11,000 tons, and that of palm oil was 3,600 tons, with a total trading volume of 14,600 tons, a 2.67% decrease from the previous trading day [16]. - Soybean meal trading and oil - mill operation: On October 23, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 148,600 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 68.13%, a 0.38% increase from the previous day [16]. - Agricultural product prices: On October 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both increased. The prices of various agricultural products such as pork, beef, and eggs also changed to different extents [16]. 04 Macroeconomic News - International News - Fed rate - cut expectations: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.3%, and the probability of cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cuts in December is 93.4% [18]. - US economic data: US September existing - home sales totaled 4.06 million units, in line with expectations; the Kansas City Fed manufacturing composite index in October was 6, higher than expected [18]. - EU sanctions: The EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and has also sanctioned some Chinese and Indian companies. China has expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition [18]. - Domestic News - Exchange rate: On October 23, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0918, a 36 - point decrease (appreciation of the Chinese yuan) [20]. - Central bank operations: On October 23, the People's Bank of China conducted 212.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan [20]. - Policy news: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to build a strong domestic market and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern. China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 [21]. 05 Capital Flows - On October 23, 2025, the net inflow of funds into the futures market was 27.536 billion yuan, including 3.42 billion yuan into commodity futures, 24.868 billion yuan into stock - index futures, and a net outflow of 729 million yuan from bond futures [24]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.