2025/8/25 11:25 【国富期货早间看点】MPOA⻢棕8⽉前20⽇产量增3.03% 25/26年度美⾖单产料为53蒲/英亩 20250825 【国富期货早间看点】MPOA马棕8月前20日产量增3.03% 25/26年 度美豆单产料为53蒲/英亩 20250825 国富研究 国富研究 2025年08月25日 07:20 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油11(BMD) | 4531.00 | 1.55 | | | 布伦特11(ICE) | 67.26 | 0.22 | -0. 03 | | 美原油10(NYMEX) | 63.77 | 0. 46 | 0.06 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1058. 25 | 0. 31 | 0. 12 | | 美豆箱12(CBOT) | 291.00 | -0.95 | -2. 12 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 55. 20 | 2.66 | 4. 41 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy futures markets, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, and capital flow data. It also provides insights into international and domestic supply - demand dynamics for various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and grains. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are provided, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, BMD palm oil 11 closed at 4529.00 with a previous - day decline of 0.51% and an overnight increase of 0.71% [1]. - Exchange rate data for major currencies are also presented, such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.22 with a decline of 0.05% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. For example, DCE palm oil 2601 in North China had a spot price of 9820 with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included, with Brazilian soybeans having a CNF premium of 307 cents per bushel and a CNF quote of 495 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from August 25 - 29 indicates that temperatures will be below normal and precipitation will mostly be near to below the median. Some parts of the US Midwest will experience rainfall and temperature drops [4][6]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 increased by 17.5% according to AmSpec and 13.61% according to ITS compared to the same period last month [7]. - Indonesia plans to increase its crude palm oil production from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030 [8]. - Nebraska's soybean pod count is at a 22 - year high, while Indiana's is slightly lower than 2024 but higher than the three - year average [9]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 20, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 79,066 tons, a 152% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 114,900 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from the previous day [14]. - China's palm oil imports in July 2025 decreased by 47.22% month - on - month and 46.79% year - on - year. Soybean imports decreased by 4.86% month - on - month but increased by 18.39% year - on - year. Rapeseed imports decreased by 4.61% month - on - month and 56.63% year - on - year [14][15]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 81.9% [16]. - The Eurozone's CPI annual rate in July was 2%, and the monthly rate was 0%. The Indonesian central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points [17]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On August 20, the US dollar/CNY exchange rate was 7.1384, up 25 points (CNY depreciation). The Chinese central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan [19]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On August 20, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 3.705 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 12.337 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital inflow of 16.042 billion yuan [23]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 8 月 21 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

数据日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 2025/8/20 | 指标 | | 8月19日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差 (张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 日照 | 47 | | 2500 | -- 23/24 ===== 19/20 ====- 20/21 ====- 21/22 ===== 22/23 | | | -24/25 | | | | | | 2000 | | | | | | | 天津 | -13 | -13 | 1500 | | | | | | | | -63 | -13 | 1000 | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | 张家港 | -43 | -13 | -500 09/21 | 10/22 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 08/27 | | | | | | 东莞 | -133 | -13 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products, along with important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macroeconomic news, and capital flows in the market. It details price changes, production, consumption, and trade data to assist in understanding the market trends of these commodities [1][2][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, and related products are provided. Also, the latest prices and percentage changes of currency indices and exchange rates are given [1]. 2. Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and changes of imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2]. 3. Important Fundamental Information 3.1产区Weather - US soybean - producing states' future weather (August 20 - 24) shows that most areas will have above - normal temperatures and half of the regions will have precipitation close to the median. The Midwest will experience temperature increases and varying precipitation patterns, which may impact crops differently [4][6]. 3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased significantly compared to the same period in July according to AmSpec and ITS. Indonesia will crack down on illegal palm plantation activities. CFTC持仓 reports show changes in positions of various agricultural products. North American field surveys on corn and soybeans will be conducted. NOPA data indicates US soybean crushing and soybean oil inventory in July. Canadian and Ukrainian agricultural production and harvest progress are also reported. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index shows different trends for different types of ships [8][9][10]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 15, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased significantly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal also changed, and the oil mill's开机 rate decreased slightly. The actual soybean crushing volume in the 33rd week was lower than expected. Pig - raising profits and agricultural product wholesale prices showed certain changes [14][15]. 4. Macroeconomic News 4.1 International News - US economic data such as inflation expectations, manufacturing index, consumer confidence index, retail sales, import prices, industrial output, and business inventory are reported [17]. 4.2 Domestic News - The RMB exchange rate, central bank's open - market operations, national economic data, monetary policy report, and a WTO lawsuit against Canada are presented [19]. 5. Capital Flows - The capital flow data of major futures varieties on August 15 are provided, including the net inflow and outflow of funds in different types of futures such as commodity futures and stock index futures [21][22]. 6. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Core Viewpoint - The soybean futures market is experiencing fluctuations, influenced by various factors including favorable growing conditions for new season soybeans and weak demand from China [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The main soybean futures are trading around 990 cents, with external market support lacking [1] - The latest report indicates that 69% of the soybean crop is rated good to excellent, the best level for this time of year in nearly five years [1] - Only 3% of the planting area is affected by drought, with soil moisture levels allowing for some flexibility [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - China has not initiated new season soybean purchases, maintaining a 23% tariff on imports, which contributes to weak demand for U.S. soybeans [1] - If no significant macroeconomic news emerges, the support level of 1000 cents may turn into a resistance level, with expectations of increased ending stocks for U.S. soybeans [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Trends - Domestic soybean meal prices are currently stronger than external prices, leading to a divergence in trends [1] - Recent transactions in domestic soybean meal exceeded 2 million tons in a single day, primarily for forward contracts, indicating concerns about future supply [1] Group 4: Future Projections - The USDA's upcoming report is anticipated to reveal potential bearish factors, with analysts projecting global soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season at 127.42 million tons [1] - For the U.S. 2024/25 season, ending stocks are expected to be 347 million bushels, with a projected production of 4.365 billion bushels and a yield of 52.9 bushels per acre [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean supply is expected to be loose due to the promising harvest in the US and the expected expansion of planting area in Brazil, which may limit the rebound space of US soybean futures prices. The domestic DCE soybean meal M09 remains strong, with the focus shifting to the M01 contract. Although the spot price of soybean meal has risen, the high inventory of oil mills and the low basis have led to a dull market sentiment. The market's concern about supply shortages may be over - estimated, and there is no fundamental support for a significant price increase [16][18]. - For live pigs, the supply may first decrease and then increase in the short term. The demand has slightly recovered, but the high temperature still restricts the purchase of pork. The short - term price is mainly determined by the slaughter rhythm and is expected to fluctuate slightly downward [18][19]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract closed down 0.03% at 3023 yuan/ton, while the coastal oil mills' quotes rose by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live pig main 2509 contract dropped 55 yuan/ton to 13885 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of live pigs was stable at 13.88 yuan/kg. The CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.66% to 995 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - The weather in the US Midwest planting belt is favorable this week, with rain expected. The temperature will be lower than normal in the early part of the week and then rise. Although there has been high - temperature and extreme weather recently, the growth conditions of corn and soybeans are still good [3][4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - In the 31st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased by 1.55% week - on - week to 655.59 million tons, while the soybean meal inventory decreased by 0.14% to 104.16 million tons [5]. - On August 5, the import cost of US soybeans decreased by 2 yuan to 4455 yuan, while that of Brazilian soybeans increased by 4 yuan to 3848 yuan, and that of Argentine soybeans increased by 17 yuan to 3691 yuan [5]. - On August 4, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal decreased, with spot volume increasing and basis volume decreasing. The average trading price rose for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a two - week high [5]. - The predicted US soybean production in 2025 is 4.425 billion bushels, and corn production is 16.323 billion bushels, higher than the USDA's latest forecast [6]. - As of July 31, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 612,539 tons, and the cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 47.83401 million tons [6]. - Celeres expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 177.2 million tons and export volume to be 110 million tons [6]. - As of August 4, 2025, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.91173 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,790 tons [7]. - In late July, the oversupply in the live pig market due to accelerated slaughter and limited demand growth led to a decline in pig prices. In the fifth week of July 2025, the national live pig ex - factory price dropped to a six - week low [7]. - As of August 3, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, the flowering rate was 85%, and the pod - setting rate was 58% [7]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.4% [8]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live pigs, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal [11][12][15][16]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the global supply is expected to be loose, which may limit the rebound of US soybean futures. The domestic DCE M09 remains strong, and the focus is on M01. The high inventory of oil mills, low basis, and flat market sentiment suggest that the current price increase may be due to expected supply shortages rather than fundamental factors [16][18]. - For live pigs, the supply may fluctuate, and the demand recovery is limited. The short - term price is determined by the slaughter rhythm and is expected to fluctuate slightly downward [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking for commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products. Specific Summaries by Section Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 10 was 4,218.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.39% and an overnight decline of 0.76% [1]. - Brent 10 (ICE) closed at 68.68, with a previous - day decline of 1.21% and an overnight decline of 0.85% [1]. - NYMEX US crude oil 09 closed at 66.24, with a previous - day decline of 1.52% and an overnight decline of 0.94% [1]. - CBOT US soybeans 11 closed at 994.50, with a previous - day increase of 0.66% and an overnight decline of 0.13% [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 8,920, with a basis of 120 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 8,330, with a basis of 80 and a basis decline of 2 from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 2,900, with a basis of - 118 and a basis decline of 9 from the previous day [2]. Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal temperature and precipitation from August 9 - 13 [4]. - The Midwest planting belt in the US will be mostly dry this week, with soil moisture remaining good. A front has passed, bringing cooler temperatures [6]. International Supply - Demand - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July 2025 is expected to be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June [8]. - As of June 30, 2025, 89.6% (5.03 million hectares) of Malaysia's oil palm plantations had MSPO certification [8]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of August 3, 2025, was 69%, in line with market expectations [10]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 4, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 33,150 tons, a 25% decrease from the previous trading day [14]. - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils in key regions in China was 2.3611 million tons, a 0.03% decrease from the previous week [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 94.4% [17]. - The US factory orders in June decreased by 4.8% month - on - month, in line with expectations [17]. Domestic News - On August 4, 2025, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1395, up 101 points (appreciation of the RMB) [19]. - On August 4, 2025, the central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows On August 4, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 778 million yuan, with a net inflow of 2.6 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 1.822 billion yuan in stock index futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.

Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: August 4, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - Short - term soybean meal may oscillate at a low level as US weather improves, while the view that its mid - term center of gravity will shift upward remains unchanged [6] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes of Contracts**: For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3041, the opening price was 3038, the highest price was 3049, the lowest price was 3024, the closing price was 3037, with a decrease of 4 and a decline rate of - 0.13%. The trading volume was 486,810, the open interest was 1,443,501, and the open interest change was 52,869. For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3006, the opening price was 2996, the highest price was 3022, the lowest price was 2989, the closing price was 3010, with an increase of 4 and an increase rate of 0.13%. The trading volume was 1,016,300, the open interest was 1,396,108, and the open interest change was - 19,167. For the Soybean Meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3044, the opening price was 3033, the highest price was 3058, the lowest price was 3027, the closing price was 3047, with an increase of 3 and an increase rate of 0.10%. The trading volume was 113,663, the open interest was 623,912, and the open interest change was - 2,169 [6] - **External Market Situation**: The US soybean futures contracts in the external market oscillated weakly, with the main contract at 990 cents. Sino - US talks had no new additional news, and the previous tariffs were extended for 3 months. The demand outlook for US soybeans was suppressed. The new - season US soybeans were growing well, with a latest weekly good - to - excellent rate of 70%, higher than the market - expected 67%, the previous week's 68%, and the same period last year's 67%. Only 5% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, and the soil moisture had some leeway. The expectation of a bumper harvest was gradually strengthening. Although the US had reached trade agreements with many countries recently, including an agreement with Indonesia where Indonesia needs to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, China, the largest exporter of US soybeans, still maintained a 23% import tariff on US soybeans. It was expected that the export of new - season US soybeans would decline inevitably, and US soybeans were running weakly with insufficient recent bullish factors [6] - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic soybean meal was stronger than the external market, currently in a state of wide reality and tight expectation. The import window for US soybeans is in the fourth quarter. As the time approaches, there are topics and themes for soybean meal to rise, but it should also be noted that China has started importing Argentine soybean meal, and the export tax rate of Argentine soybeans has recently decreased. Although there is an expectation of an increase in the cost of imported soybeans in China in the fourth quarter, the imagination space may be relatively limited [6] 2. Industry News - **USDA Export Sales Report**: As of the week ending July 24, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 778,700 tons, in line with expectations. The net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2024/25 market year was 349,200 tons, a significant increase from the previous week and a 4% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The market previously estimated an increase of 100,000 - 300,000 tons. The net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/26 market year was 429,500 tons, and the market previously estimated a net increase of 100,000 - 600,000 tons. The US soybean export shipments were 499,600 tons, a 65% increase from the previous week and a 63% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The new sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 market year were 365,700 tons, and the new sales of US soybeans in the 2025/26 market year were 429,500 tons [9] - **USDA Drought Monitoring Report**: As of the week ending July 29, about 5% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 8% in the previous week and 4% in the same period last year [9] - **EIA Data**: The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released on Thursday showed that the amount of soybean oil used for biofuel production in the US in May increased to 1.025 billion pounds. In April, the amount of soybean oil used for biodiesel production was 829 million pounds. Soybean oil remains the largest raw material for biodiesel production in the US [10] 3. Data Overview - Not provided with specific data summaries in the content, only mentioned data sources such as Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent performance of U.S. soybean futures, which have experienced six consecutive days of decline, approaching the annual low of $9.71 per bushel, raising concerns about the sustainability of bullish positions [1] - The demand for U.S. soybeans is under pressure, particularly due to the absence of China, the largest buyer, which has led to questions about who can support the weak demand for American soybeans [1] Group 1 - U.S. soybean futures are nearing a critical annual low, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The continuous decline in soybean prices highlights the vulnerability of bullish positions in the market [1] - The lack of demand from China poses significant challenges for U.S. soybean exports, impacting overall market sentiment [1]