朋友們 2025年11月20日華爾街午盤時間 我們來更新比特幣的行情 這個是比特幣的日線圖 從日線級別來看 我們發現比特幣依然是在往下跌 我們可以看到的是 最近這段時間 陰線依然是為主的 那麼陽線好像有那麼一點點 但是比較的弱 這邊來了一下但是沒有緊跟著的反彈 然後再繼續往下走 那麼昨天的行情更新中 提醒大家不要在這邊抄底 因為目前來說還是有那麼一點點早 為什麼 因為如果說 我們看這邊是沒有看到 任何價格行為上面的強勢 高點都在非常順滑的往下走 而且如果說是看bybit比特幣USD 幣本位的資金費率 那麼很少有情況是出現 那麼高的資金費率的狀況下 就出現反轉的 那麼在過去的兩年中 我有關注bybit 幣本位的資金費率的變化 和行情的相關性 那麼任何一次反彈可以說90%的情況下 通常會有一段時間的這種負的資金費率 然後再上漲這邊也是這邊也是 然後來到這邊資金費率那麼高的時候 它怎麼會反彈呢 那麼即使有反彈 它也是短的反彈 甚至只是把前面這一帶來測一下 它很有可能就會再繼續往下跌 所以大的反彈目前我還是沒有看到機會 但是如果說有的話 那麼一定是這下面開始出現 非常密集的負的資金費率 到時候你可以嘗試去做一個短多 ...

Market Analysis - Bitcoin's daily chart shows a less-than-ideal close followed by a continued downward trend, cautioning against chasing highs at $120,000 due to potential pullbacks [1] - High trading volume during pullbacks, rather than a healthy reduction in volume, suggests significant selling pressure [1] - A large trading volume accompanying a failed breakout from a consolidation zone indicates potential large-scale selling [1] - Negative funding rates on Bybit Bitcoin USD perpetual contracts often signal a relative low point, while high funding rates suggest over-eagerness to chase highs, potentially leading to corrections [1] - The analyst is closely monitoring a specific level for a potential dip below followed by a quick recovery, which could present a long opportunity; failure to recover would raise concerns about market structure [1] Trading Strategy - The analyst suggests that a drop below a key low point, followed by a swift recovery, could be a buying opportunity, indicating a continuation of the upward trend [2] - The analyst is wary of shorting Bitcoin unless a clear breakdown and confirmation occur, preferring to wait for a confirmed bearish signal before taking a short position [2] - The analyst notes that many traders are currently shorting Bitcoin, and suggests that a break below a significant low could trigger more short selling, presenting an opportunity to take a contrarian long position [2] Altcoin Analysis - Ethereum appears slightly stronger than Bitcoin, with decent trading volume, but the analyst cautions that Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin while Bitcoin struggles is a potentially dangerous sign [2] - The analyst suggests that if Ethereum continues to rise, some altcoins may experience a rally, but the analyst is closely monitoring Bitcoin's ability to continue its upward trend [2]

Market Analysis & Bitcoin (BTC) - The analyst notes Bitcoin's (BTC) price surge, breaking the $100,000 - $110,000 resistance level, suggesting a potential support zone at that range if the market adapts to the $120,000 level [1] - Concerns arise regarding the lack of volume supporting the breakout, potentially leading to a MACD divergence on the weekly chart [1] - The analyst points out the high funding rates on Bybit's BTC perpetual contracts, indicating a crowded long position, which historically precedes corrections or consolidation [1][2] - The analyst suggests potential buying opportunities when funding rates are negative or when there is strong negative sentiment [1] Trading Strategy & Risk Management - The analyst expresses reluctance to chase the rally without a clear entry point, citing concerns about a potential "volume-less" surge [1] - The analyst anticipates a consolidation phase for Bitcoin (BTC), potentially testing lower support levels, and identifies a possible pullback target [1] - The analyst suggests that a break below the previous high point of 2878.54% on the Ethereum (ETH) chart would trigger a short position [2] - The analyst emphasizes the importance of monitoring order book data on Bybit's BTC perpetual contracts to identify potential bearish divergences [2] Ethereum (ETH) Analysis - Ethereum (ETH) has touched the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, and its ability to hold above the previous high is crucial for further upside [2] - The analyst notes a successful sweep of lows on Ethereum (ETH) during the weekend, creating a potential long opportunity [2]

Market Analysis - Bitcoin's weekly chart suggests a strong bullish trend, potentially forming a continuation head and shoulders pattern, currently testing the neckline [1] - The analyst notes a VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) formation in Bitcoin, characterized by decreasing downward回调幅度 and shrinking成交量, indicating potential upward breakout [1] - Ethereum shows an AMD pattern (likely referring to a specific technical analysis pattern), with a three-stage upward expectation, currently approaching the 0.06% level [2] - Trump Coin (川普币) is showing a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend, but its stability is questionable due to its reliance on the former president's actions [2] Trading Strategy - The analyst suggests holding long positions if already in profit, and waiting for consolidation and potential stop-loss hunting before re-entering [1] - For Ethereum, the analyst advises against shorting unless it falls back below a certain level, suggesting a potential 5:1 or 4:1 profit-loss ratio for short positions if the pattern fails [2] - The analyst suggests caution due to high funding rates, indicating a potential pullback before further upward movement [2] Risk Management - The analyst emphasizes the importance of clear stop-loss levels, particularly for Ethereum trades [2] - The analyst advises against chasing the price at current levels, suggesting potential consolidation and better entry opportunities later [1][2] - The analyst suggests that if Bitcoin falls below a certain level without a quick rebound, it would be prudent to exit the position [2]

Market Analysis - Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a strong bullish signal after breaking previous lows to fill gaps, primarily aiming to liquidate leveraged positions [1] - The analysis suggests a potential ABC three-wave pattern with a C-wave target around $110,000 (11万) or even retesting the all-time high, contingent on the strength of the A-wave and funding rates [1] - Ethereum's (以太) price action is currently lagging behind Bitcoin, suggesting it's being driven more by Bitcoin's momentum than its own intrinsic strength [2] Trading Strategy - The analyst advises against shorting Bitcoin when the funding rate is negative, as this often precedes further upward movement [1] - The analyst suggests considering long positions on Bitcoin during pullbacks, especially near the daily chart's support levels, potentially around the 618% or 66% Fibonacci retracement levels [2] - The analyst suggests caution if Bitcoin quickly approaches and breaks the all-time high with high volume, indicating a potential fakeout and subsequent correction [2] Risk Assessment - The analyst expresses concern about a potential fake breakout at the all-time high, especially if accompanied by high trading volume, which could lead to a significant pullback [2] - The analyst notes that Ethereum (以太) may not be a strong buy currently due to its underperformance compared to Bitcoin and its dependence on Bitcoin's price action [2]