尽管科技板块估值处于高位，但瑞银认为盈利增长提供支撑，市场情绪理性，未出现泡沫迹象。建议投 资者保持广泛股票敞口，可考虑逢低布局以捕捉AI带来的增长机遇。(编辑胡群) 瑞银认为，美联储若启动降息，将继续支撑美股表现，并可能导致美元走弱。优质固定收益和黄金被继 续视为有效的对冲工具。关于人工智能(AI)，瑞银承认短期可能出现"阵痛"，但中长期仍看好其驱动回 报的能力。AI应用正加速推进，提供商逐步将使用量转化为收入，科技公司有望获得可观利润。据估 算，AI年化营收机会约1.5万亿美元，为当前资本支出的三倍。 经济观察网8月25日，瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)发表机构观点。CIO表示，美联储主席鲍威尔 上周五在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话强化了市场对9月降息的预期，概率由72%升至93%。受此提振，美 股三大指数全线收涨，标普500指数上涨1.5%，逼近历史高点。 ...

美股周一收盘基本持平。主要股指在经历上涨一周后市场暂作休整。交易员正等待关键零售商业绩及美 联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上的年度讲话。道指收跌0.08%，纳指上涨0.03%，标普 500指数下跌0.01%。 来源：第一财经 ...

Market Overview - Recent market trends indicate that large-cap stocks have regained dominance in the U.S. stock market, driven by expectations of a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, leading to a second consecutive week of gains for major Wall Street indices [1] - Nearly $9 billion flowed back into U.S. stock funds over the past week, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment amid concerns over valuation adjustments [1][6] Economic Indicators - Key economic data released last week focused on inflation and retail sales, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) meeting expectations while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a hotter-than-expected inflation environment, rising 0.9% month-over-month and core inflation increasing to 3.7%, the highest since March [3] - Retail sales grew by 0.5%, but consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan, unexpectedly declined, raising concerns about rising inflation [3] - Initial jobless claims slightly decreased to 224,000, indicating a stable labor market despite signs of stagnation [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September reached 99.9% mid-week, stabilizing around 85% as of the latest updates, indicating strong market pricing for this outcome [4] - Uncertainty surrounding inflation is expected to make some Federal Open Market Committee members cautious about rate cuts, especially in light of mixed economic data [5] Stock Performance - The S&P 500 index has seen strong performance, reaching historical highs, with healthcare, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors leading the gains, particularly following significant investments from notable investors like Warren Buffett [6] - Despite the overall positive market sentiment, concerns about high valuations persist, with 91% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America believing that current valuations are excessive, the highest level since 2001 [7] - The market's recent performance is attributed largely to large-cap stocks, with 61% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages, although only 24% of individual stocks have outperformed the index over the past 60 days, indicating a selective market environment [7]

币圈平台玩美股，相当于闲鱼代买体育彩票。 ...

美投君唯一内容服务【美投Pro】，正在“九点半”独家发布！新用户前7天免费试用~ 详情点击：https://www.jdbinvesting.com?utm_source=mtq&utm_campaign=mt_pro_250809&utm_medium=yt_desc 【美投Pro】都有什么？ ✅一年50期视频，最深度的股票分析和跟踪 ✅专业分析师团队，以及上千会员共同交流 ✅每日分享投资观点，专业数据，以及交易总结 ✅已有120+期视频，10000+投资观点 【美投Pro】试看样片： 后现代周期 https://youtu.be/oVcFIiWpfW0?si=uxUJGLx_QSCVmvMJ 电动车投资 https://youtu.be/UPTGSoSjJI4?si=lw_0Yl0ovuyivkX3 战胜华尔街 https://youtu.be/pj9P-A57EJU?si=nY33Xyhct_C1TKuL 美债大结局 https://youtu.be/h9dFZa2j41w?si=NkEFdznxuWM56XsC 量化风险 https://youtu.be/OCT_XwOi0ME?si=E7rVodbO ...

Crypto Market Opportunities - Crypto market opportunities stem from high-leverage volatility, unregulated on-chain transactions, Wall Street investment in major cryptocurrencies, and Trump's endorsement of dollar-backed ecosystems [1] - Native altcoins opportunities in the crypto market involve PVP contract trading, Pre TGE projects, new coins, deep market corrections, and manipulation by wealthy entities, shifting the market structure from a football shape to a barbell shape [1] Market Comparison - The report suggests a comparison between the crypto market and the US stock market, highlighting the performance of stocks like Futu Holdings ($FUTU), which increased by 120% from its April bottom, and MP Materials ($MP), which increased by 75% in a month following positive news [1] - Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with ETF support, are considered outside traditional market influences, with their value significantly impacted by NASDAQ inflows [1] Altcoin Market Indicator - SOL is identified as a potential indicator for the altcoin market [1]

Group 1 - The US stock market saw a significant increase on Monday, with the Dow Jones recovering losses from the previous trading day and the Nasdaq index rising nearly 2% [1] - All three major US stock indices recorded their largest gains since May 27, as investors opted to buy on dips [2] - The Nasdaq Technology ETF rose over 2%, while the Nasdaq 100-related ETFs increased by more than 1.5% [1][2] Group 2 - Employment data fell short of expectations, leading to speculation about a potential interest rate cut in September [2]

Market Overview - Oil prices fell sharply due to OPEC+ decision to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, leading to a decline in WTI crude oil by 2.47% and ICE Brent crude by 2.15% [5][6] - U.S. stock markets, gold, and cryptocurrencies experienced gains, with major U.S. indices rising over 1%, particularly the Nasdaq which increased by over 1.6% [5][6] Oil Market - WTI crude oil closed at $65.69, down $1.64, while ICE Brent crude oil closed at $68.17, down $1.50 [2][4] - Natural gas futures also saw a decline of nearly 3%, closing at $3.001 [2] Stock Market - The Dow Jones increased by 1.00%, Nasdaq by 1.62%, and S&P 500 by 1.16% [6] - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Google up 2.82%, NVIDIA up 2.39%, and Apple up 2.18% [7] Cryptocurrency Market - Ethereum surpassed $3,600, with a 24-hour increase of 4.4%, while Bitcoin rose nearly 1.4% [8][9] - The total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market reached $175 million, with $136 million from short positions [10] Gold Market - Gold prices rose above $3,370 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3,385.45, marking the highest level since July 24 [11] Economic Outlook - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased significantly, with a probability of 85% for a cut in the September meeting [11] - UBS strategists predict a potential decline in U.S. stock markets in August due to worsening economic data, viewing it as a buying opportunity [12]

Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP growth for Q2 was revised up to 3.0%, exceeding expectations of 2.6%, with net exports contributing 5 percentage points[5] - The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now forecast indicates a slight decrease in Q3 GDP growth to 2.1%[3] - The final domestic private purchases growth (consumption + investment) fell by 0.7 percentage points to 1.2%[5] Employment Data - July non-farm payrolls increased by only 74,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000[5] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 23,000 to 193,000, better than the expected 211,000, indicating no significant layoffs yet[3] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, primarily due to a drop in labor force participation[5] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The core PCE inflation for June was reported at 2.6%, above the expected 2.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[5] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, with a hawkish tone from Powell[6] Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices fell, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones down by 2.4%, 2.2%, and 2.9% respectively[7] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1% to 98.7, while the euro and yen depreciated by 2.8% and 2.1% respectively[7] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold prices increased by 1.9% to $3,399.8 per ounce, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.8% to $69.7 per barrel[7]

大新银行认为，贸易战对美国通胀及整体经济活动的影响尚未明朗，加上就业市场仍大致平稳，认为9 月议息会议减息的机会不大，而第四季可能仅减息一次，最终减息步伐仍取决于未来几个月的数据会否 加快转弱，及关税如何影响物价走势。美国陆续与主要经济体达成贸易协议，加上龙头科技股业绩仍然 稳健，支持近期美股平稳上升及屡创新高，但美股估值显著偏高，加上减息预期降温，美股中短线大幅 跑赢其他市场的机会有限，维持美股的中性观点。 债市方面，主要央行减息步伐料放缓，而且财政前景日益引起关注，下调主权及投资级别企业债券观点 至中性，较长期债券或跑输中短期债券。 委员亦重申美国劳工市场依然稳健，通胀仍然略高鲍威尔淡化9月减息的预期——美联储主席鲍威尔表 示，目前仍有很多不确定性尚待解决，认为当前的利率水平能够应对围绕关税和通胀的持续不确定性。 他表示，下一步采取的措施可能更接近中性，但难以说明下次会议前数据是否更趋明朗。议息结果公布 后，利率期货显示市场对美联储9月减息的预期由逾六成降至逾四成。 大新银行维持美股中性观点，料美国年底前或仅减息一次，下调主权及投资级别企业债券至"中性"。大 新银行表示，美联储一如预期维持利率不变——美联 ...