Market Analysis - The analysis indicates that Bitcoin's recent price action shows signs of weakness, with a potential false breakout pattern forming on the daily chart [1] - The analyst expresses uncertainty about Bitcoin's short-term direction, noting conflicting signals from the daily chart and broader market trends [1] - The report suggests that any short-term rallies in Bitcoin should be viewed as opportunities to consider short positions [1] - The analysis points out that Bitcoin is currently testing a key hourly support level, and a failure to hold this level could lead to further declines [1] - The analyst anticipates a potential upward move to test resistance levels and fill gaps before a larger downward move [1] Trading Strategy - The analyst suggests that traders who missed earlier shorting opportunities may consider adding to their positions during rallies, with appropriate stop-loss measures [1] - The report advises against chasing short positions at current levels, suggesting waiting for pullbacks to key support levels [1] - The analyst emphasizes the importance of considering potential stop-loss points when opening new positions [1] Overall Sentiment - The analyst expresses a bearish outlook for Bitcoin in 2026, anticipating profitable shorting opportunities [1] - The report suggests that the current market behavior may indicate distribution rather than accumulation, with higher trading volume during down days [2]

朋友們 2025年10月13日華爾街早盤時間 我們來更新比特幣的行情 這個是比特幣的周線圖 因為今天是華爾街時間的周一 我們來看一下周線級別怎麼樣 從周線來說我們發現毫無疑問 這並不是一個特別好的k線 是一根大陰線 雖然說最後又比較長的下影線收回去 你不能說這個表明著說 非常的強勢給它拉回去 只能說當時出現了一個 恐慌級別的 獵殺合約的慘劇 它最後往下面跌到這個下面 也確實出現了有一些人爆倉掉了 然後價格也就往上面漲 然後成交量我們會發現 並不是一個特別好的情況 因為如果說在盤整區間的 相對上面一些的位置 然後一路跌下來的成交量出現那麼大 小明則說好像這個上方有比較多的拋壓 然後日線級別這樣的說法 我們其實也提了很久了 那麼在原先漲到前面高點的上面的時候 這邊的成交量其實也逐漸有放大 直到在這邊的時候出現了一個完全的釋放 實際上在這樣的一次下跌之後 讓我感覺非常意外的是 竟然很多人對這樣的一次下跌會感到意外 什麼意思 他會覺得怎麼會暴跌那麼多 怎麼實際上暴跌哪裡多一點都不多 你可以看到很多嗎 真不是很多這種情況 其實以往按照比例來說這個是非常常見的 然後很多人可能會說這個也爆倉了 所以我也爆倉了 然後怎麼樣 ...

Market Analysis - Bitcoin's daily chart shows a large bearish engulfing pattern after a false breakout, indicating a potential downward trend [1] - A retracement to test the previous area of resistance occurred, confirming the bearish outlook [1] - The increasing trading volume during the upward movement suggests a distribution phase rather than accumulation [1] - Ethereum may experience a rally to fill gaps and test liquidity, potentially leading to a false breakout before a decline [2] Trading Strategy - The analyst suggests considering short positions if Bitcoin fails to break higher [1] - For short positions, a 20% take profit at previous lows is recommended, with a protective stop-loss on any upward retracements [2] - Traders should be cautious of potential whipsaws in the distribution phase and avoid emotional trading decisions [1][2] Risk Management - The market is designed to manipulate the psychology of ordinary people, requiring awareness of one's own emotions [1] - The analyst emphasizes the importance of making money rather than taking sides with bulls or bears [2] - Be wary of greed if Ethereum rallies and forms a false breakout, especially if Bitcoin is in a distribution phase [2]

朋友們 2025年10月8日華爾街早盤時間 我們來更新比特幣的行情 這個是比特幣的日線圖 從日線級別來看 我們發現昨天的k線是一根大陰線 幾乎是把前面這一天的上漲 都給它吞沒掉了 那麼k線形態來講並不是特別的樂觀 而且來上方做假突破的時候 它的成交量還有一點不小 我們會發現來這邊你可以看到 成交量還是有那麼一點點的大 而且這樣的一根陰線 你看對應著非常大的成交量 我之前有說過 如果說行情進入到一段時間的盤整 那麼來到上面如果成交量比較少一點 倒是沒有什麼問題 表明在說什麼價格有點高 大家這個時候要不要買 還有點猶豫 但如果說來上方的時候成交量是比較的大 表明的說這個很明顯的拋壓 那麼來到上方的時候 我們都知道散戶是一個什麼樣的狀態 就是非常的泡沫然後生怕它跌不下去 然後這個時候要買 那麼在高位的時候 選擇賣出的 通常可能是比比較大資金一些的 那麼這個就讓我們非常留意 這邊有沒有可能走這種派發區間 那麼昨天確實是一根大陰線 那麼今天好像有所好轉 你可以看到又反彈起來了 它為什麼會反彈 實際上我們切換到更小級別來看 就非常的清晰 這個是比特幣的一小時級別 我們會發現它是跌到什麼樣的位置 如果說這樣子畫出來 大家可 ...

Market Analysis - The analysis suggests Bitcoin is facing resistance at the time of the report, with potential for a triple top bearish MACD divergence, which is considered a negative signal [1] - The report highlights that a "bearish engulfing" candlestick pattern has formed on the daily chart, potentially trapping buyers and leading to further downward pressure [1] - The analysis indicates that Bitcoin's price action on the 4-hour chart suggests a possible rounding top formation, with weakening upward momentum [1] - The report mentions a potential shorting opportunity around the 0.66% Fibonacci retracement level, with a stop-loss strategy in place [1] - The analysis identifies a potential bounce area (AR - Automatic Rally) and suggests monitoring price action around this level for signs of support or further decline [1] - The report warns of a potential fakeout scenario where Bitcoin could make a false breakout to the upside, triggering stop losses before a more significant downward move [1] - The analysis suggests that Ethereum and altcoins may have an opportunity to rally if Bitcoin consolidates [2] Trading Strategy - The report advises caution for novice traders, recommending against chasing new highs and emphasizing the importance of analyzing price action [1] - The report suggests experienced traders could consider hedging their positions based on price action [1] - The report recommends Bybit as the most suitable contract exchange for technical analysis and Binance for spot trading, highlighting fee reduction benefits [2]

Market Analysis - Bitcoin is showing a significant downward trend on the daily chart, despite a minor positive correction yesterday [1] - A previous support/resistance level was tested, and the failure to hold above it suggests a high probability (80%) of further decline to the next low [1] - The speaker anticipates a potential short-term long position if Bitcoin bounces back from the next low, aiming to profit from liquidity grabs at higher levels like $120,000 or all-time high, before initiating a medium to long-term short position [1] - Ethereum is also experiencing a sharp decline, mirroring Bitcoin's movements and potentially undergoing a longer period of consolidation after a false breakout [1] Trading Strategies - The speaker suggests setting alarms at the next low to monitor for potential long opportunities if a strong rebound occurs [1] - A short-term long strategy is considered if Bitcoin breaks below and then recovers the parallel low, with a target to liquidate at higher liquidity zones [1] - For Ethereum, a long trade is possible if the price breaks below and then recovers a flat bottom area; otherwise, it may follow a similar pattern of false breakout followed by a decline [1] Risk Management - The speaker emphasizes the importance of adjusting one's perspective based on current market behavior, rather than fixed predictions [1] - The speaker highlights a potential bull trap on the hourly chart, where a breakout followed by a pullback may lure traders into long positions before a sharp decline [1] - The speaker plans to take profit in a timely manner if the price reaches a higher position, and try to make a mid- to long-term short [1]

Market Analysis - The analysis suggests that Bitcoin is currently facing some challenges at the daily chart level, with potential difficulties in determining the optimal trading strategy due to market volatility [1] - The report considers the possibility of a "fake breakout" scenario, where the price might initially rise to trigger stop-loss orders before reversing downwards [1] - The analysis suggests that large capital may not allow traders to easily set their short stop-loss orders, indicating a potential for market manipulation [1] - The report suggests the possibility of Bitcoin accumulating short positions before rising to break through previous highs, potentially creating a short squeeze [1] - The analysis indicates that Ethereum (ETH) may follow Bitcoin's downward trend, potentially breaking through lower support levels [2] Trading Strategy - The analyst is inclined to wait for a higher price point, specifically around $120,000, before considering shorting Bitcoin, despite the risk of missing a potential downward move [1] - The report suggests that if one is concerned about missing a potential downward move, a small short position could be initiated with a stop-loss order placed above the recent high [1][2] - The analysis suggests that a key level to watch for Ethereum is a potential fake breakout at previous highs, which could present a shorting opportunity in conjunction with Bitcoin [2] Liquidity and Market Sentiment - The analysis suggests that liquidity plays a significant role in driving market movements, especially within smaller ranges [1] - The report notes that stop-loss orders are likely clustered around previous highs, indicating a potential target for market manipulation to liquidate these positions [1] - The analysis observes an increase in short positions being opened during price declines, but without a corresponding drop in price, suggesting a potential short trap [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is experiencing a paradox of "index rising with shrinking volume," indicating potential risks of a false breakout, similar to historical patterns observed in March 2025 [1] Group 1: Volume-Price Divergence - The index has risen while trading volume has decreased to around 800 billion, close to the lower end of short-term liquidity [3] - Historical data suggests that a genuine breakout requires volume to increase by more than 300% and be sustained, whereas current volume is only one-third of peak levels, indicating weak buying interest from major funds [3] - A true breakout example occurred in February 2025 when a significant volume increase of 320% led to a doubling of stock prices within a month [3] Group 2: Fund Diversification - Despite a broad rise in individual stocks, the flow of funds reveals the intentions of major players, with significant concentration in a few leading stocks in the new energy sector, such as solid-state batteries and photovoltaic equipment [5] - Financial stocks, including banks and insurance, have shown a decline, yet their intraday movements have artificially boosted the index, creating a "false prosperity" scenario [5] - Today's net inflow of major funds was only 42.7 billion, a significant drop compared to previous inflows that often exceeded 100 billion, with funds highly concentrated in specific sectors [5] Group 3: Technical Divergence - Three major technical indicators signal potential risks: MACD divergence, where the index rises but MACD histogram shortens, and RSI shows overbought conditions [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index remains below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with the 20-day moving average acting as a critical support level [7] - A disorganized distribution of shares before the breakout, with some popular stocks showing over 30% turnover but stagnant prices, suggests potential selling by major players [7] Historical Context - A historical reference from August 2025 indicates that after a 26% volume drop, a false breakout occurred at 3700 points, leading to a subsequent retest of lower levels [8] - Investors are advised to use a "3-day confirmation" rule to assess the stability of key levels post-breakout, maintaining a conservative position [8] - A strategy of retaining leading stocks while liquidating those without performance support is recommended [8] Conclusion - The current market is in a "weak recovery" phase, characterized by a shrinking volume rise, which is more indicative of a bear market retreat rather than a strong bull market [9] - Investors should remain cautious, as 80% of breakouts are likely false, and only a combination of volume, funds, and technical analysis can help identify potential traps set by major players [9]

朋友們大家好，大家早上中午晚上好 這裡是提阿非羅 現在是2025年 9月5日華爾街早盤時間 我們來更新比特幣的行情 這個是比特幣的日線圖 從日線級別來看我們發現非常的有意思 那麼昨天它一度是在支撐阻力互換位附近 受到了阻礙 然後就往下面跌 那麼今天早盤時間竟然往上面沖了一下 但是依然是沒有站上去 表明著說目前這一帶 還有比較大的阻力 那麼現在又繼續往下面跌 我個人是覺得 現在出現了一個 比較有意思的情況 我們可以看一下 這個上面是一個平行的高點 下面是一個平行的低點 那麼這就看哪邊先來打到 實際上如果說 你在這個支撐阻力互換位附近 嘗試要去賭多或者賭空 我個人都認為真的就是在賭博 因為它並不是特別清晰的位置 如果說它來到這邊 做出一小時級別的假突破 在這個地方做空是可以的 如果說它沒有先上去 而是盤整盤整 然後往下面跌 把下面的平行的低點出現了跌破 然後收回來那麼一小時級別 有一根大陽線的話 就可以考慮在這邊去做多 我個人認為 如果說先來到這邊 可能會比較的好 那麼如果說反彈的話 我依然是留意0.618%之類的位置 然後在這邊看看有沒有出現頹勢 就目前來說如果說去看盤口還是看其他的 我都覺得沒有什麼參考因素 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK) is currently experiencing quiet trading, but there is anticipation of a potential breakout that could lead to a price increase [1]. Group 1: Trading Dynamics - Traders are assessing whether the current trading situation represents a true breakout or a false breakout, which could lead to a rapid price reversal [1]. - Resistance is defined as a price level where there is significant selling interest, which can push the price lower if sellers overpower buyers [2]. - A breakout occurs when buyers overpower sellers at resistance, leading to a bullish price movement [2]. Group 2: Resistance and Support Levels - The removal of supply from the market, as sellers cancel or complete their orders, may set the stage for a price increase [4]. - A confirmed breakout is indicated when a previous resistance level turns into support, as traders who sold at resistance buy back their shares [5]. - The $114 and $121 levels previously served as resistance before becoming support, leading to subsequent price increases [6]. Group 3: Current Focus - Traders are currently monitoring the $130 level to see if it will also transition from resistance to support, which could signal another upward movement for the stock [7].