朋友們 2025年9月25日華爾街午盤時間 我們來更新比特幣的行情 這個是比特幣的日線圖 從日線級別來看 我們發現比特幣還是出現了很大幅度的下跌 那麼昨天的時候雖然說是一根日線是陽線 但是它最後卻只是在這上面收了一些影線 這意味著什麼 實際上我在這邊畫了一條線 那麼之前在這一帶測試支撐阻力互換位 那麼小級別它一度站上去了 昨天來到這樣的一個位置的時候 我就有兩個交易方案 也在節目中和大家去講過 一個就是如果說小級別盤整突破 我會覺得回踩一下 如果說踩穩的話有可能會繼續反彈 但如果說來這邊沒有踩穩的話 而是跌了回去 我會覺得大概率會把這個下面會來到 我們可以看到它今天來到了這個下面 而且沒有做出非常有效的反彈 而是繼續在往下跌 如果說再繼續往下跌 下面的目標位在哪裡呢 很簡單 下面的目標位就是切近的這樣的一個低點 我畫在這邊，這樣的一個低點 也是原先讓我們覺得心有未安的位置 為什麼 因為我們可以看到 前面這一帶和這裡剛剛好是平行的低點 也就是說這邊的流動性是沒有拿掉的 上次按道理來說要把下面跌破才好 但是沒有，現在是完完全全平行的 那麼這種平行的低點 通常會有比較多的多頭設定止損在這邊 我個人是覺得 80%的概 ...

Market Analysis - The analysis suggests that Bitcoin is currently facing some challenges at the daily chart level, with potential difficulties in determining the optimal trading strategy due to market volatility [1] - The report considers the possibility of a "fake breakout" scenario, where the price might initially rise to trigger stop-loss orders before reversing downwards [1] - The analysis suggests that large capital may not allow traders to easily set their short stop-loss orders, indicating a potential for market manipulation [1] - The report suggests the possibility of Bitcoin accumulating short positions before rising to break through previous highs, potentially creating a short squeeze [1] - The analysis indicates that Ethereum (ETH) may follow Bitcoin's downward trend, potentially breaking through lower support levels [2] Trading Strategy - The analyst is inclined to wait for a higher price point, specifically around $120,000, before considering shorting Bitcoin, despite the risk of missing a potential downward move [1] - The report suggests that if one is concerned about missing a potential downward move, a small short position could be initiated with a stop-loss order placed above the recent high [1][2] - The analysis suggests that a key level to watch for Ethereum is a potential fake breakout at previous highs, which could present a shorting opportunity in conjunction with Bitcoin [2] Liquidity and Market Sentiment - The analysis suggests that liquidity plays a significant role in driving market movements, especially within smaller ranges [1] - The report notes that stop-loss orders are likely clustered around previous highs, indicating a potential target for market manipulation to liquidate these positions [1] - The analysis observes an increase in short positions being opened during price declines, but without a corresponding drop in price, suggesting a potential short trap [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is experiencing a paradox of "index rising with shrinking volume," indicating potential risks of a false breakout, similar to historical patterns observed in March 2025 [1] Group 1: Volume-Price Divergence - The index has risen while trading volume has decreased to around 800 billion, close to the lower end of short-term liquidity [3] - Historical data suggests that a genuine breakout requires volume to increase by more than 300% and be sustained, whereas current volume is only one-third of peak levels, indicating weak buying interest from major funds [3] - A true breakout example occurred in February 2025 when a significant volume increase of 320% led to a doubling of stock prices within a month [3] Group 2: Fund Diversification - Despite a broad rise in individual stocks, the flow of funds reveals the intentions of major players, with significant concentration in a few leading stocks in the new energy sector, such as solid-state batteries and photovoltaic equipment [5] - Financial stocks, including banks and insurance, have shown a decline, yet their intraday movements have artificially boosted the index, creating a "false prosperity" scenario [5] - Today's net inflow of major funds was only 42.7 billion, a significant drop compared to previous inflows that often exceeded 100 billion, with funds highly concentrated in specific sectors [5] Group 3: Technical Divergence - Three major technical indicators signal potential risks: MACD divergence, where the index rises but MACD histogram shortens, and RSI shows overbought conditions [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index remains below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with the 20-day moving average acting as a critical support level [7] - A disorganized distribution of shares before the breakout, with some popular stocks showing over 30% turnover but stagnant prices, suggests potential selling by major players [7] Historical Context - A historical reference from August 2025 indicates that after a 26% volume drop, a false breakout occurred at 3700 points, leading to a subsequent retest of lower levels [8] - Investors are advised to use a "3-day confirmation" rule to assess the stability of key levels post-breakout, maintaining a conservative position [8] - A strategy of retaining leading stocks while liquidating those without performance support is recommended [8] Conclusion - The current market is in a "weak recovery" phase, characterized by a shrinking volume rise, which is more indicative of a bear market retreat rather than a strong bull market [9] - Investors should remain cautious, as 80% of breakouts are likely false, and only a combination of volume, funds, and technical analysis can help identify potential traps set by major players [9]

朋友們大家好，大家早上中午晚上好 這裡是提阿非羅 現在是2025年 9月5日華爾街早盤時間 我們來更新比特幣的行情 這個是比特幣的日線圖 從日線級別來看我們發現非常的有意思 那麼昨天它一度是在支撐阻力互換位附近 受到了阻礙 然後就往下面跌 那麼今天早盤時間竟然往上面沖了一下 但是依然是沒有站上去 表明著說目前這一帶 還有比較大的阻力 那麼現在又繼續往下面跌 我個人是覺得 現在出現了一個 比較有意思的情況 我們可以看一下 這個上面是一個平行的高點 下面是一個平行的低點 那麼這就看哪邊先來打到 實際上如果說 你在這個支撐阻力互換位附近 嘗試要去賭多或者賭空 我個人都認為真的就是在賭博 因為它並不是特別清晰的位置 如果說它來到這邊 做出一小時級別的假突破 在這個地方做空是可以的 如果說它沒有先上去 而是盤整盤整 然後往下面跌 把下面的平行的低點出現了跌破 然後收回來那麼一小時級別 有一根大陽線的話 就可以考慮在這邊去做多 我個人認為 如果說先來到這邊 可能會比較的好 那麼如果說反彈的話 我依然是留意0.618%之類的位置 然後在這邊看看有沒有出現頹勢 就目前來說如果說去看盤口還是看其他的 我都覺得沒有什麼參考因素 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK) is currently experiencing quiet trading, but there is anticipation of a potential breakout that could lead to a price increase [1]. Group 1: Trading Dynamics - Traders are assessing whether the current trading situation represents a true breakout or a false breakout, which could lead to a rapid price reversal [1]. - Resistance is defined as a price level where there is significant selling interest, which can push the price lower if sellers overpower buyers [2]. - A breakout occurs when buyers overpower sellers at resistance, leading to a bullish price movement [2]. Group 2: Resistance and Support Levels - The removal of supply from the market, as sellers cancel or complete their orders, may set the stage for a price increase [4]. - A confirmed breakout is indicated when a previous resistance level turns into support, as traders who sold at resistance buy back their shares [5]. - The $114 and $121 levels previously served as resistance before becoming support, leading to subsequent price increases [6]. Group 3: Current Focus - Traders are currently monitoring the $130 level to see if it will also transition from resistance to support, which could signal another upward movement for the stock [7].

Market Analysis - Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a strong bullish signal after breaking previous lows to fill gaps, primarily aiming to liquidate leveraged positions [1] - The analysis suggests a potential ABC three-wave pattern with a C-wave target around $110,000 (11万) or even retesting the all-time high, contingent on the strength of the A-wave and funding rates [1] - Ethereum's (以太) price action is currently lagging behind Bitcoin, suggesting it's being driven more by Bitcoin's momentum than its own intrinsic strength [2] Trading Strategy - The analyst advises against shorting Bitcoin when the funding rate is negative, as this often precedes further upward movement [1] - The analyst suggests considering long positions on Bitcoin during pullbacks, especially near the daily chart's support levels, potentially around the 618% or 66% Fibonacci retracement levels [2] - The analyst suggests caution if Bitcoin quickly approaches and breaks the all-time high with high volume, indicating a potential fakeout and subsequent correction [2] Risk Assessment - The analyst expresses concern about a potential fake breakout at the all-time high, especially if accompanied by high trading volume, which could lead to a significant pullback [2] - The analyst notes that Ethereum (以太) may not be a strong buy currently due to its underperformance compared to Bitcoin and its dependence on Bitcoin's price action [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of false breakouts in trading, suggesting that recognizing these can lead to more confident counter-trading actions [1] - It highlights the current macroeconomic environment, indicating a balanced and slightly loose funding situation with a small decline in long-term bond yields [1][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 291.1 billion yuan, with a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan after 142.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. appellate court temporarily reinstated Trump tariffs, contributing to a weak stock market and a slight decline in bond market rates [2][3] - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly lower and fluctuated, with the lowest rate reaching 1.667% before closing at 1.675% [3][4] - Market participants were closely monitoring the central bank's announcements regarding bond purchases, although no such operations were conducted, leading to a slight rebound in rates [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting perspectives between technical bearishness and fundamental recovery in the palm oil market, questioning whether the recent price increase is a "false breakout" or a "true reversal" [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for palm oil prices, indicating potential downward pressure in the near term [1] - Conversely, fundamental factors are showing signs of recovery, which could support higher prices moving forward [1] Group 2: Price Movement - Palm oil has recently experienced a price increase, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [1] - The article highlights the importance of distinguishing between temporary price movements and long-term market trends [1]

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Core Insights - Gold bulls have broken through weekly resistance, raising questions about whether this marks the beginning of a new trend or a false breakout [1] Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices indicates a strong bullish sentiment among investors [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring the situation to determine if the current movement is sustainable or if it could be a temporary spike [1] - The potential for a false breakout poses risks for investors who may be entering the market at this time [1]