Core Viewpoint - The election of Kishi Sanae as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may lead to her becoming Japan's first female Prime Minister, with a shift towards a more moderate and conservative policy stance, alleviating investor concerns about extreme fiscal expansion and pressure on the Bank of Japan [1][2]. Policy Stance - Kishi Sanae's campaign reflected a pragmatic shift from her previous hardline positions, avoiding past statements on cutting consumption tax or opposing interest rate hikes, which helped her gain more support within the LDP [2][3]. - The concept of "Responsible Expansionary Fiscal Policy" proposed by Kishi emphasizes strategic fiscal mobilization to address social issues, aiming for job and income growth, and a gradual reduction of government net debt-to-GDP ratio, contrasting with modern monetary theory (MMT) [2][3]. Economic Policy Influences - Kishi's economic policies are influenced by former advisor Honda Yoshihiro, incorporating traditional measures such as refundable tax credits and the elimination of temporary gasoline taxes [3]. - She has indicated that cutting consumption tax is not a priority and the likelihood of increasing financial income tax in the short term is low, despite previous proposals to raise the tax rate on financial income over 500,000 yen [3]. Monetary Policy Alignment - Kishi respects the independence of the Bank of Japan, aligning her economic judgments with the cautious stance of Bank Governor Ueda Kazuo, which may lead to a cooling of market expectations for imminent interest rate hikes [5]. - If economic recovery is clear and wage growth stabilizes inflation at 2%, Kishi's government would not oppose interest rate increases, indicating a flexible approach to monetary policy [5]. Key Policy Focus Areas - Kishi's administration will prioritize national security, domestic investment, and structural reforms, with a strong emphasis on "economic security" [6]. - Plans include increasing defense spending to 2% of GDP by FY2027, promoting investment in critical sectors like AI, semiconductors, and biotechnology through tax incentives, and establishing a Foreign Investment Review Committee [6]. - Additional reforms aim to address rising prices, enhance energy security, and ensure food safety through agricultural structural reforms [6].

Core Viewpoint - The election of Kishi Sanae as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) positions her as a potential first female Prime Minister of Japan, with a shift towards a more moderate and conservative policy stance, alleviating investor concerns about extreme fiscal expansion and pressure on the Bank of Japan [1][2]. Policy Stance - Kishi has moved from a hardline stance to a more pragmatic approach to gain support within the LDP, avoiding previous statements on cutting consumption tax or opposing interest rate hikes [2][3]. - Her campaign emphasized "responsible expansionary fiscal policy," focusing on strategic fiscal mobilization to address social issues, which contrasts with the extreme fiscal expansion associated with Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) [2][3]. Economic Policy Influences - Kishi's economic policies are influenced by former advisor Honda Yoshihiro, incorporating traditional measures such as refundable tax credits and the elimination of temporary gasoline taxes [3]. - Concerns regarding consumption tax cuts and increased financial income tax are deemed exaggerated, suggesting that fiscal sustainability risks may not be as significant as perceived [3]. Monetary Policy Alignment - Kishi respects the independence of the Bank of Japan, indicating that the government sets fiscal and monetary policy goals while the Bank decides on the best monetary policy tools [4]. - Her economic views align with Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo, both expressing caution regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs and recognizing that current inflation is primarily driven by supply-side factors [4][6]. Tax Policy Outlook - Kishi has indicated that cutting consumption tax is not a priority, and the likelihood of increasing financial income tax in the short term is low [5]. - Any potential increase in financial income tax would depend on achieving a 2% inflation target, rather than being implemented immediately [5]. Key Policy Focus Areas - Kishi's administration will prioritize national security, domestic investment, and structural reforms, with a strong emphasis on "economic security" [7][8]. - Plans include increasing defense spending to 2% of GDP by FY2027, promoting investment in critical sectors like AI and semiconductors, and establishing a Foreign Investment Review Committee [8].

【导读】日经225指数大涨超4%，创历史新高 日本股市大幅走强。 10月6日，日经225指数日内涨超4%，最高涨近2000点；最新报47699.96点，创历史新高。 日本东证指数升至历史新高。 | 日本东证指数 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指 HQ.TOPIX | | | | | | 3216.31 +87.14 +2.78% | | | | | | 10-06 08:01:58 | | | | | | 今开 3175.83 | 最高 3215.64 | | | | | 昨收 3129.17 | 最低 3170.16 | | | | | 分时 日K 月K 周Ｋ | | 楽K | 更多, ◎ | | | 均价:3186.66 最新:3216.31 +87.14 +2.78% | | | | | | 3216.17 | | | | 2.78% | | 3129.17 | | | | 0.00% | | 3042.17 08:00 11:45 | | | | -2.78% 14:30 | | MACD . [12,26,9] MACD:7.550 DIFF ...