转自：今晚报 【日媒：#高市早苗令日本民众郁闷#】#日媒怀疑高市早苗自导自演#据参考消息，日本《东京新闻》12 月31日发表的社论，原题为《岁末有感 虽然我们迎来了宪政史上首位女首相……》，全文如下：在 《东京新闻》评选的2025年"十大新闻"中，高市早苗当选首相无疑是日本国内新闻中的头条。然而心情 郁闷之人不在少数。第一个原因就是对物价居高不下的担忧。11月的全国消费者价格指数同比增长 3.0%，已经连续51个月上涨。如果收入也一同增长当然是好事，然而统计数据显示，10月的实际工资 同比下降0.8%，已经连续10个月负增长。工资增速赶不上物价涨幅更是让那些依赖养老金生活的退休 群体直面高物价的冲击。在内阁府进行的"社会意识民意调查"中，73.1%的受访者将"物价"列为将会继 续恶化的领域，连续四年位居榜首。尽管如此，高市政府应对物价上涨的措施仍称不上得当。在2025财 年补充预算一般账户总额的18.3万亿日元(100日元约合4.47元人民币)中，仅有8.9万亿日元可被视为用来 应对物价上涨，剩余部分基本上都是用于"危机管理投资"、"增长投资"以及"加强防卫和外交能力"等高 市政府更在乎的政策。我们仍然不理解 ...

为了缓解日元的贬值和日本国内通胀大幅上行的问题，日本央行不顾反对，在上周还是决定加息25个基点。 然而就在日本央行做出加息的决定之后，日元的汇率出现了单日大幅贬值，日元兑美元汇率再度跌至155以下。 为什么加息会直接导致日元的汇率出现大幅度的贬值？这件事情对于日本的影响会有多大？ 日本央行加息，日元贬值 近日日本央行在不堪重负之下，直接加息25个基点，加息的幅度虽然远低于市场的预期，但是依旧在全球的金融市场引发了一场腥风血雨。 对于全球的资本和金融体系来说，未来，在国际货币市场和融资市场，将会缺少一个免费借钱的资金来源。 一场关于30年的全球超级赌局就这么草草结束了，所谓的安倍经济学以及量化宽松能够拯救经济的理论宣告失败。 同时也意味着全球钱的流向、资产的定价逻辑，甚至未来的财富版图都将被重新书写。 日本央行是在极大压力之下做出的加息决定，日本国内的通胀已经连续在44个月的时间超过2%的目标线，物价的上涨已经严重影响到了日本民众的生活。 如果通胀继续增长，那么在日本果果依靠资金池运作的理财产品，借新还旧的金融产品就要捂不住窟窿了。 日本国债直接崩盘 日本央行寄希之后，崩盘的不仅仅是汇率，连同日本国债市场在内也 ...

与此同时，高市虽然出台了财政刺激与货币宽松政策，但日元贬值严重、物价水平高企的状态并未真正 改变，民众实际购买力依然受到侵蚀。此外，高市在改变医疗支付比例等社会保障方面的政策调整，客 观上将财政压力转移至老年群体与低收入阶层——比如，老年群体个人负担的护理成本或将在明年政策 落地后倍增。上述政策反映出高市内阁在资源配置中更加侧重于战略性产业与安全保障领域，而在减轻 民生负担方面的应对措施相对有限，可能进一步凸显社会资源分配的结构性矛盾。 高市内阁在人事任命方面的问题同样明显。该内阁自上台以来丑闻不断，涉及多种腐败问题，而其中最 引发民众关注的当属对"黑金"议员的公然起用。尽管自民党此前的"黑金"丑闻一度引发日本国民的强烈 愤慨，高市却在内阁及党内人事安排中任命部分涉案议员出任要职。例如，被任命为内阁官房副长官 的"黑金"议员佐藤启声称，高市的政策问答文本、参拜靖国神社等争议问题乃至高市本人的妆容都由 他"掌控"。这类言论的出现，表明高市内阁对"黑金"议员的纵容并非仅为稳固党内支持、平衡派系利 益，更是该内阁出于政治考虑在构成上与自民党内较为腐败的势力进行的深度绑定。 张用清 自上台以来，日本高市早苗政权呈现出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates to the highest level in 30 years, indicating readiness for further increases, marking a significant shift from decades of monetary support and near-zero borrowing costs [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The short-term interest rate has been increased from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking the first rate hike since January, with the decision made unanimously [1] - Future interest rate adjustments will be based on inflation and wage data, with a focus on achieving inflation targets [1][10] Group 2: Economic Considerations - The central bank's policy adjustments will depend on economic, price, and financial conditions, with updates provided at each meeting [2] - The neutral interest rate remains unclear, and the bank will observe economic and price responses to short-term rate changes [3] Group 3: Monetary Support and Economic Conditions - Monetary support will consider actual interest rates, credit conditions, and economic developments, with the current rate still below the estimated lower bound of the neutral rate [4] - The recent depreciation of the yen may exert upward pressure on prices and affect potential inflation [5] Group 4: Wage Growth and Future Rate Hikes - Strong wage growth momentum could open the door for further rate hikes, with initial signs of positive wage negotiations for the coming year [6] - The central bank's policy decisions will depend on available information regarding the gap between policy rates and neutral rates [7] Group 5: Assessment of Economic Policies - The impact of "Abenomics" is still being evaluated, with the central bank aiming for a smooth landing despite potential side effects [8] - The actual interest rates on Japanese government bonds remain significantly negative, indicating ongoing challenges in the economic landscape [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in Japan's monetary policy under the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as it moves towards interest rate hikes in response to the depreciation of the yen and rising inflation, contrasting with the previous era of aggressive monetary easing known as "Abenomics" initiated in 2012 [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Context - "Abenomics" began in 2012 when Japan faced record yen appreciation and persistent deflation, with the yen valued at approximately 80 yen per dollar [4]. - Currently, the yen's value has dropped to nearly half of its 2012 level, leading to increased inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising around 3%, which is 1.5 times the BOJ's target of 2% [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Shift - The BOJ's decision to raise interest rates is seen as a necessary response to the current economic conditions, where yen depreciation and inflation require different measures compared to the past [4]. - The article emphasizes that continuing with the previous monetary easing policies would exacerbate yen depreciation and inflation, potentially leading to economic downturns [5]. Group 3: Central Bank Independence - The independence of central banks is highlighted as crucial for maintaining price stability, which sometimes conflicts with political interests [5]. - The BOJ has maintained its stance despite changing economic conditions, indicating a need for the Japanese government to implement effective policies alongside the BOJ's actions [5].

Core Viewpoint - Overseas investors are returning to the Japanese stock market, with net purchases exceeding 5 trillion yen in 2025, marking a potential annual high since the launch of Abenomics in 2013 [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Trends - The first wave of increased buying by overseas investors began in April due to the "Trump tariff shock," which prompted a shift from a heavy focus on the U.S. market to Japan [5]. - The second wave started in mid-September following the election of Kishi Nobuo as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, with weekly net purchases exceeding 1 trillion yen after her victory [5]. - The net purchase amount by overseas investors reached 5.88 trillion yen by December 12, 2025, significantly surpassing the 3.1 trillion yen recorded in 2023 [4]. Group 2: Market Performance - The Nikkei average index saw a 24% increase in 2025 when measured in U.S. dollars, outperforming the S&P 500's 14% increase, marking the first time in four years that Japanese stocks exceeded U.S. stocks in annual performance [5]. - The gap of 10 percentage points between the two indices is the largest since the 2008 financial crisis [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investors are optimistic about Japan's economic growth under a prime minister who prioritizes economic development, as noted by Emily Badger from Man Group [5]. - North American investors have net purchased over 1 trillion yen in Japanese stocks over the past year, the highest since 2014, while European investors have net purchased 3 trillion yen, albeit with greater volatility [6]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Despite the current influx of overseas investment, the overall net purchase scale remains only one-third of the levels seen during the Abenomics era in 2013 [6]. - Concerns about potential long-term interest rate increases due to aggressive fiscal policies under Kishi's administration have led to a slowdown in the momentum of overseas purchases [6].

Economic Decline - Japan's economy is facing severe challenges, with the yen depreciating by 5.6% against the US dollar since the appointment of Prime Minister Kishida [1][4] - The country is experiencing a structural decline rather than a simple recession, indicating a deep-rooted economic crisis [4][17] Manufacturing Sector - Japan's once-proud manufacturing giants, particularly in the automotive and electronics sectors, are losing market share, with Chinese electric vehicle orders surpassing Japanese brands at the 2024 Shanghai Auto Show [6][8] - Japan has transitioned from a trade surplus nation to a persistent trade deficit, highlighting a critical loss of its economic foundation [6][8] GDP and Debt - Japan's GDP has been surpassed by Germany, dropping to fourth globally, with projections indicating that South Korea may soon exceed Japan's per capita GDP [8][19] - The country has the highest government debt ratio globally, and continued borrowing amidst rising interest rates is seen as a gamble that could further weaken its economy [8][19] Societal Impact - The economic decline is reflected in societal issues, such as young Japanese women resorting to selling their dignity abroad to make a living, indicating a dire economic situation [10][12] Policy Failures - Monetary policies, including low interest rates and currency devaluation, are viewed as ineffective measures that fail to address the underlying structural issues [12][17] - The reliance on fiscal and monetary interventions has created a vicious cycle of debt and economic decline, leading to a "death spiral" for the economy [17][19] Comparison with Other Nations - In contrast to Japan, South Korea has successfully adapted to technological changes and industrial shifts, demonstrating the importance of flexibility and innovation [21][23] - Japan's adherence to traditional manufacturing practices has resulted in a "technological prison," limiting its ability to adapt to new market realities [23][25] Geopolitical Context - Japan's economic struggles are compounded by external pressures from the US and China, with the US seeking to maintain Japan's financial support while limiting its autonomy [27][29] - China's strategic efforts to undermine Japan's economic strength are evident, aiming to reshape Japan's political and ideological landscape [29][31] Conclusion - Japan's failure to embrace change and innovation has led to its current predicament, serving as a cautionary tale for other industries and nations [33]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Prime Minister Kishi's statements regarding Taiwan as a "survival crisis" for Japan, suggesting a significant shift in Japan's defense posture and foreign policy, diverging from previous administrations' approaches [2][5][6] Group 1: Political Context - Kishi is influenced by former Prime Minister Abe and aims to continue his policies, but the political, economic, and social environment in Japan has drastically changed since Abe's tenure [1][4] - Kishi's conservative ideology seeks to regain support from right-wing voters, reflecting a departure from Abe's cautious diplomatic stance towards China [5][6] Group 2: Defense and Foreign Policy - Kishi's declaration regarding Taiwan could allow the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to engage in military action alongside U.S. forces, marking a significant policy shift [2][5] - The statement contradicts Japan's previous official stance of maintaining ambiguity regarding "survival crisis" situations, indicating a more aggressive defense posture [5][6] Group 3: Historical Parallels - The article draws a parallel between Kishi's situation and that of Napoleon III, suggesting that Kishi's actions could lead to unintended consequences if not carefully managed [3][6] - The potential for Kishi's government to be influenced by extreme right-wing opinions could result in unpredictable outcomes, moving beyond mere political farce [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan, under Governor Kazuo Ueda, is preparing for an interest rate hike, with market expectations pricing in an 80% probability for a December increase, driven by a consensus on the weak yen as a pressure point between the government and the central bank [1][3][4]. Group 1: Political Foundations for Rate Hike - Ueda's main challenge since the appointment of Prime Minister Sanna Takashi has been to clear political obstacles for the rate hike, with concerns over the yen's depreciation being a significant tool for persuasion [4]. - A pivotal meeting on November 18 between Ueda and Takashi led to a mutual understanding regarding the gradual rate increase to achieve price stability [4][6]. - The Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, expressed no opposition to the central bank's gradual adjustment of stimulus measures, indicating government support for the upcoming rate hike [3][4]. Group 2: Communication Strategy - Following discussions with government officials, the Bank of Japan's monetary affairs team worked overnight to draft a speech for Ueda, aimed at signaling policy intentions before the December rate review [5]. - The communication strategy included praising former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic policies and explaining the necessity of raising low borrowing costs for long-term growth [5][6]. Group 3: Future Rate Path Challenges - Despite the imminent rate hike, the central bank faces challenges in communicating its long-term interest rate path, with a lack of consensus on the neutral interest rate level [6][7]. - Current estimates suggest a nominal neutral rate range of 1% to 2.5%, creating uncertainty for investors regarding future rate increases [7]. - Market expectations indicate a potential rise to around 1.5% by mid-2027, while government advisors suggest maintaining rates at 0.75% post-hike until 2027, highlighting the divergence in views [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is moving towards a level of interest rates not seen in nearly three decades, marking a significant monetary policy decision and a carefully orchestrated political communication strategy [1] Group 1: Political Foundations for Rate Hike - The biggest challenge for the Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda was to clear political obstacles for the rate hike since Prime Minister Kishi's administration took office on October 21 [2] - Concerns over the uncontrolled depreciation of the yen have become a powerful tool for the Bank of Japan to persuade politicians [2] - A pivotal meeting occurred on November 18 between Ueda and Prime Minister Kishi, where the Prime Minister acknowledged the central bank's plan for gradual rate hikes to achieve price stability [2] Group 2: Communication Strategy - Following discussions with government officials, the Bank of Japan's monetary affairs officials drafted a speech for Ueda to signal policy direction ahead of the December 18-19 rate review meeting [3] - The speech praised former Prime Minister Abe's "Abenomics," explaining how raising low borrowing costs now would support long-term stable growth [3] - Ueda's pragmatic and cautious approach has helped alleviate concerns among politicians about hasty policy normalization [3] Group 3: Future Challenges - While the path for the December rate hike seems clear, the more significant challenge lies in communicating the long-term interest rate trajectory [4] - There is a lack of consensus on Japan's neutral interest rate, estimated by the Bank of Japan to be in a broad range of 1% to 2.5% [4] - Market expectations indicate that the Bank of Japan may raise rates to around 1.5% by mid-2027, but there are differing views within the government regarding the pace of future hikes [4]