日本央行前行长黑田东彦表示，鉴于当前日本经济已呈现"非常健康的态势"，日本必须继续推进加息举 措并收紧财政政策。同时，他发出警告称，首相高市早苗提出的大规模支出计划，可能会致使通胀加速 攀升。 黑田东彦对日本未来的加息路径给出了具体预测，认为随着日本经济保持稳健增长以及薪资水平的持续 攀升，日本央行应当在2026年和2027年期间保持每年约两次的加息节奏。 他强调，这一举措旨在将基准利率逐步推升至既不刺激也不抑制经济的"中性水平"。黑田认为，当前日 本已经摆脱了长达数十年的通缩阴影，货币政策的正常化已成为支撑日元汇率、防止经济过热的必然选 择。 黑田东彦周二在接受采访时表示："安倍经济学实施之时，日本正遭受通缩和日元走强之苦。如今，日 本却面临通胀和日元疲软的局面。日本需要转向更加紧缩的财政和货币政策。" "日本央行必须逐步将利率提升至对经济中性的水平。财政政策也必须收紧，"黑田东彦表示，"增加支 出并减税是否合适，我对此存疑。" 这些言论凸显出，随着日本经济格局演变，安倍经济学最热心的设计者黑田东彦与其现任旗手高市早苗 在政策思路上已出现显著分歧。 据了解，黑田东彦以2013年推出激进货币刺激政策而闻名，该 ...

日本央行前行长黑田东彦表示，日本必须继续加息并收紧财政政策，因为经济已经处于"良好状态"。他 还警告称，首相高市早苗的大规模支出计划可能引发新一轮通胀上行。 黑田东彦说，在经济保持稳健增长、工资持续上涨的情况下，日本央行或许可以在2026年和2027年每年 大约加息两次。他因在2013年作为时任首相安倍晋三"安倍经济学"再通胀政策的一部分，推出激进的货 币刺激措施而广为人知。他在周二的采访中表示： "安倍经济学推出时，日本正遭受通缩和日元走强的困扰。如今，日本面临的是通胀和日元 疲软。日本需要转向更紧缩的财政和货币政策……日本央行必须逐步将利率提高到被视为对 经济中性的水平，财政政策也必须收紧。我在想，增加支出和减税是否合适。" 这些言论凸显出，随着日本经济格局的演变，作为"安倍经济学"最重要设计者的黑田东彦，与其现任主 要推动者高市早苗之间，在政策理念上出现了明显分歧。 这位前日本央行行长的任期于2023年结束，在此之前，他用十年时间通过非常规政策工具推动经济增长 和通胀。 高市早苗在2月8日的大胜进一步加大了市场对她是否会重新推动宽松财政和货币政策的关注。此前，由 于市场担忧日本财政状况恶化，日元和国债在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda advocates for continued interest rate hikes and tighter fiscal policies due to favorable economic conditions, warning that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's large-scale spending plan could lead to overheating inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Japan's economy is experiencing robust growth and steady wage increases, prompting the need for the Bank of Japan to potentially raise interest rates approximately twice a year in 2026 and 2027 [1] - Kuroda emphasizes the current challenges of inflation and yen depreciation facing Japan [1] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Kuroda calls for a shift towards tighter fiscal and monetary policies, suggesting that the Bank of Japan should gradually raise interest rates to neutral levels [1] - There is skepticism regarding the appropriateness of increased spending and tax cuts, as Kuroda warns that expansionary fiscal policies could exacerbate inflationary pressures and elevate bond yields [1]

本次众议院选举大胜，仅自民党单独掌握的议席就超过三分之二，高市在自民党内和日本政府内的话语 权将空前加强，各政党在国会角力的局面几乎宣告终结。日本媒体将这种局面称为"高市政权无刹 车""高市获得空白委任状"。 东京大学多位专家表示，本次大选，高市并不是要问政于民，而是向选民索要无限授权。正因如此，自 民党的胜出无比危险，高市恐将更加不受约束地施政，成为世界的不稳定因素。 市场人士普遍认为，由于高市决意放松财政纪律，潘多拉魔盒已被打开，未来债汇"双杀"难以避免。尽 管事后高市极力解释，但其在选举期间发表的"日元贬值对出口企业来说是巨大机遇、政府外汇运营也 因此赚得盆满钵满"的言论仍被市场投资者解读为容忍日元贬值。 （来源：经济参考报） 日本首相高市早苗领导的执政联盟在2月8日举行的众议院选举中获得大胜，同时又在此后的最新一届首 相指名选举中胜出。市场人士和经济学家普遍认为，这场大选使高市主张的财政政策有望落地，但政策 效果能否如其所愿仍面临巨大挑战。 高市自称是"安倍经济学"的继承者，执着于积极财政政策并希望保持宽松货币环境。自从其当选自民党 党首，市场就连连上演"高市交易"，股市连创新高，而债市和日元显著下跌 ...

【文/观察者网专栏作者 姚锦祥】 2月18日，日本首相高市早苗在国会指名选举中毫无悬念胜出，再次当选日本首相。 外界关注的一个重点是：高市早苗2.0时代的政策到底会向何处发展？ 目前来看，一个可能的走向或许是"稳健的保守主义"。虽然高市的终极目标旨在突破战后体制，但通往 这一终点的道路并不容易，使得她不得不在激进理念与稳健治理之间寻找脆弱的平衡。 高市的修宪宏愿与现实制约 高市早苗的政治底色无疑是浓厚且鲜明的保守主义。作为前首相安倍晋三的忠实追随者，她被外界称 为"女版安倍"，在本次选举期间也毫不讳言其政治夙愿是将自卫队写入宪法，并进而实现"国家正常 化"。在胜选后，她也明确表示将继续推动宪法改革，并加速推进制定《反间谍法》、设立"国家情报 局"等一系列强化国家安保能力的措施。 然而，宏大的政治目标也需要考虑到日本现实的制度制约。修宪的发动门槛极高，需经国会众参两院各 三分之二以上议员同意方能提出议案，最终还需交付全体国民投票，并获得半数以上的通过。目前，高 市虽然在众议院轻松跨过三分之二门槛，但参议院的局面尚未明朗。 "高市经济学"面临诸多隐忧 在此背景下，"经济主导"可能会成为高市早苗2.0时代的政策核心 ...

每经编辑｜金冥羽 据央视新闻，当地时间18日，日本自民党总裁高市早苗经国会众议院和参议院首相指名选举当选日本第105任首相。 日本内阁官房长官木原稔在记者会上称，第二届高市早苗内阁中，上一届内阁全体阁僚将留任。 当地时间2026年2月16日，日本东京，日本首相高市早苗（右）在首相官邸会见日本央行行长植田和男。 图片来源：视觉中国 国际货币基金组织（IMF）2月17日发布报告，警示日本政府应保持日本央行独立性，控制财政扩张，避免以削减消费税方式应对民生问题。 货币政策方面，IMF指出，日本央行保持独立性与公信力，有助于稳定通胀预期，并表示日本央行"应继续退出货币宽松，使政策利率在2027年达到中性 利率水平"。 财政政策方面，IMF认为，短期内财政政策不宜进一步宽松。这一点与日本首相高市早苗提出的"负责任的积极财政"相悖。IMF认为，日本目前虽有一定 财政空间，但仍需保持财政克制，以稳固财政缓冲、维持应对冲击的能力。IMF预测，长期看日本政府财政赤字将扩大，支出压力将增加，公共债务总额 将进一步增长。 IMF指出，债务水平持续高企，叠加财政收支状况恶化，使日本经济面临一系列冲击。 针对高市提出的为期两年的"食品 ...

2026年2月8日，Neutrality Studies嘉宾埃纳尔·坦根（Einar Tangen）与沃里克·鲍威尔（Warwick Powell） 教授在主持人帕斯卡的引导下，深入剖析了日本大选的最新结果。节目聚焦了自由民主党在新任首相高 市早苗的领导下取得的压倒性胜利，探讨了这一结果可能对日本国内经济、日美同盟关系及东亚地缘政 治格局带来的深远影响。 在这次大选中，日本政坛经历了极大的震动。尽管选前舆论普遍认为自由民 主党面临一定的挑战，然而，出口民调和初步计票结果却显示，自民党在众议院选举中实现了令人瞩目 的胜利。自民党不仅突破了先前预测的勉强过半的局限，最终获得了316个席位，掌控了绝对多数。这 一戏剧性的反转，关键在于新任首相高市早苗的个人魅力与号召力。作为曾经的重金属摇滚鼓手，她的 性格充满个性，给人一种坚韧而强硬的形象，这使得她成功地将一个传统上以派系政治为主导的选举， 转化为对她个人和内阁的信任投票。 高市早苗的竞选策略浓厚的民粹主义色彩，通过解散议会提前举行选举，她巧妙地利用了公众对于变革 的渴望。她向选民，尤其是年轻人群，推销了一套名为新资本主义的经济愿景。尽管这种理论的内涵和 逻辑并不严 ...

Economic Decline - Japan's ruling party expresses concern over the potential loss of its economic status, warning that it may slide into a "second-tier nation" status as its nominal GDP has been surpassed by Germany and is projected to be overtaken by India, potentially dropping Japan to the fifth-largest economy in the world [1][2] - The economic model has failed to adapt to modern times, with Japan's post-war "corporate capitalism" system becoming increasingly outdated and unable to integrate into the globalized economy driven by IT advancements [1][3] Macroeconomic Policy Failures - Continuous macroeconomic policy missteps have contributed to Japan's prolonged economic decline, including the aftermath of the 1985 Plaza Accord which led to a significant appreciation of the yen and subsequent asset bubble burst due to abrupt monetary tightening [2] - The government's fiscal policies have been misaligned, with ineffective public works spending in the 1990s exacerbating government debt, while structural reforms have lagged, leading to a liquidity trap and increased pressure on financial institutions [2][4] Innovation and Competitiveness - Japan's innovation capacity has weakened, with a notable decline in the emergence of groundbreaking technologies and competitive entities, as evidenced by its drop in global competitiveness rankings from first place in the late 1980s to 35th by 2025 [3] - The automotive industry, once a pillar of Japan's economy, is now falling behind in the electric and smart vehicle sectors, while Japan's position in AI and digitalization continues to lag, ranking only 9th in a global AI competitiveness index [3] Investment Trends - Japan faces long-term investment shortages due to demographic challenges, with an aging population and declining birth rates leading to a shrinking domestic market [4] - Japanese companies have significantly increased foreign investments, growing from $23.4 billion in 1996 to an estimated $202.5 billion in 2024, while domestic investments remain low at around $16 billion, less than one-tenth of foreign investments [4] Political Landscape - Japan's aspirations to become a "political power" have faced setbacks, with historical issues and challenges to the post-war international order hindering its progress [5][6] - The current government under Prime Minister Kishi is criticized for avoiding core issues in political discourse, focusing instead on populist sentiments, which may lead to further economic and social liabilities [9][10] Economic Policy and Debt - The government's economic strategy, dubbed "Sanae Economics," mirrors "Abenomics" but is criticized for being overly aggressive without addressing underlying economic issues, potentially leading to increased national debt, which currently stands at 260% of GDP [11] - The focus on short-term political gains through economic promises may exacerbate Japan's economic challenges rather than provide sustainable solutions [11][12]

日本第51届众议院选举结果2月9日凌晨揭晓。据新华社消息，执政党自民党议席数较选前大幅增加，超 过众议院议席总数的三分之二。分析认为，自民党总裁、日本首相高市早苗赶在其政策危害彻底暴露 前，以一场"闪电式"选举强化了执政基础，但日本经济民生困境仍难解。 高市早苗颇受日本前首相安倍晋三的提携，是"安倍经济学"的忠实信徒，其施政纲领完全抄了安倍晋三 的"作业"。然而，日本国内经济形势变了，国际经济环境也变了，高市早苗能否解决日本经济与金融的 棘手问题？ 日本经济的沉疴痼疾难去 特约撰稿 王应贵 为促进经济增长，安倍晋三再度上任（2012～2020年）后连发三箭。第一箭指财政政策，即扩大财政支 出、刺激国内消费；第二箭指货币政策，确定通胀目标为2%，要求日本银行尽快实施积极的量化宽松 货币政策，通过购买长期债券（以前为买入短期债券）全面管控利率水平；第三箭指公司治理改革（增 长战略与企业结构性改革）。2012年，日本政府总负债与GDP之比高达220.09％。安倍对振兴经济已力 不从心，只能期望通过公司治理改革鼓励私营部门投资、促进经济增长。 然而，当下日本经济形势已完全不同于2012年。目前，日本通货膨胀已达2.1 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese "lightning election" concluded in just 16 days, marking an unprecedented efficiency and result since World War II [1][2] - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Sanae Takaichi secured 310 out of 465 seats in the House of Representatives, achieving a two-thirds majority, while opposition parties collectively obtained only 109 seats [3] - This strong majority allows the LDP to push through policies with minimal resistance, enhancing policy certainty in Japan [4][5] Group 2 - The market's response reflects a pricing in of policy certainty, with a stable government increasing the likelihood of economic stimulus plans being realized [7] - Takaichi's economic strategy, which builds on Abenomics, includes a massive fiscal stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135.4 billion USD), aggressive tax cuts, and record fiscal budgets [8][9] Group 3 - The fiscal measures are expected to raise inflation expectations and interest rates, leading to a decline in bond prices, while stimulating the stock market [11] - The core logic of the "Takaichi trade" is to buy Japanese stocks, sell yen, and short Japanese bonds, as global funds embrace benefiting assets while discarding those adversely affected [11] Group 4 - The anticipated fiscal expansion is projected to increase Japan's GDP growth by 0.5% in 2026, which could improve corporate earnings [13] - Foreign investment in Japanese stocks has surged, with net purchases reaching 1.2 trillion yen in January 2026, and further increasing to 280 billion yen on the first trading day post-election [14] Group 5 - The depreciation of the yen is seen as a boon for Japanese companies, enhancing the competitiveness of exports and increasing the value of overseas earnings [16][17] - Japan's export value rose by 6.7% year-on-year in December 2025, with significant growth in automotive and semiconductor equipment exports [17] Group 6 - The Japanese bond market faces pressure due to rising fiscal premiums and a significant increase in government debt issuance, with the debt-to-GDP ratio at 237% [37] - The Bank of Japan's anticipated normalization of monetary policy, including gradual interest rate hikes, is expected to further increase bond yields [40][41] Group 7 - The market anticipates that if the yen approaches certain thresholds, the Japanese government may intervene to stabilize the currency [32][33] - The ongoing fiscal expansion and monetary policy adjustments create a challenging environment for the bond market, with expectations of rising yields and increased debt supply [45]