日元一路暴跌，日本民众开始为"高市交易"买单了！ 自10月初高市早苗当选自民党总裁以来，日元已累计贬值超3.7%，单是10月8日，日元对美元汇率最低触及153.003，创下自2月中旬以来新低。 这场被市场称为 "高市交易"的日元抛售潮，正在重塑全球对日本经济的信心。 高市早苗玩脱了。 10月4日，日本前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗在自民党总裁选举中胜出，成为自民党首位女总裁，并有望成为日本首位女首相。 消息传出后，金融市场迅速反应。10月6日开盘，日元对美元汇率应声下跌1.94%，直接跌破150关键点位。 随后几天，日元一路走软，接连跌破151、152、153三个关口。截至10月8日，日元对美元汇率最低触及153.003，这是自2月中旬以来首次触及该水平。 不仅对美元贬值，日元对其他主要货币也全线溃败。日元对欧元更是创下历史新低，一度触及177.86，为1999年欧元诞生以来的最低水平。 汇管研究院副院长赵庆明点出问题要害："高市早苗政策主张倾向于维持宽松的货币政策，例如反对央行加息，同时提倡实施积极的财政政策。这一政策组 合在一定程度上对日元构成了下行压力。" 高市早苗的经济政策主张在一定程度上延续了"安倍 ...

本文仅在今日头条发布，谢绝转载。 日元又双叒叕崩了。高市早苗这位新首相，上任不到俩月，就把日元搞成了G10货币里最弱鸡的那个。 你以为这是经济政策？ 你以为这就完了？ 错了，这是把全国老百姓的钱包架在火上烤，就为了给政客续命。 啥叫高市经济学？说白了就两条：一是疯狂借钱搞刺激，二是按住央行不让加息。 日本现在欠的钱相当于GDP的260%，啥意思？你家要是年收入100万，欠了260万外债，银行早把你拉黑了对吧？ 可日本政府不是，它继续发国债，规模高达21万亿日元。更骚的是，高市一边让央行维持零利率，一边暗示还要加大宽松。这就好比你信用卡刷爆了，不去 还账，反而跟银行说再给我提额度，利息还得再低点。 市场不是傻子，一看这架势，日元不跌才怪。这不是经济学，这是政治求生术。 高市早苗10月4日当选自民党总裁，日元应声贬值5%。东京交易时段里，汇率波动单边急剧，市场恐慌氛围浓得化不开。 11月18日，日元兑美元跌到155.37，创下今年1月以来新低；兑欧元直接跌破180，这是1999年欧元诞生以来的最弱水平。 日本10年期国债收益率飙到1.8%，创2008年金融危机以来最高纪录。40年期国债收益率更是冲到3.747%的 ...

只是具有讽刺意义的是，虽然日本政府把对应物价居高不下的问题当作首要的经济问题，但从今年度补充预算案来看似乎并不是重点。因为所 谓的积极的财政政策，势必会和实际利率下降、日元贬值等因素混合在一起，相互促进，进一步抬高日本的物价水平。已经有市场人士批判日 本政府实际上并没有把解决物价居高不下问题当作首要任务，而是更热心地促进所谓的危机管理投资，这部分投资竟占了补充预算的三分之 一。日本政府之所以编制了物价对策的预算，主要是因为执政的自民党在国会参众两院的席位都没有过半，若不接受其他政党的主张是难以过 关的。结果，大拼盘式的物价对策很难切实地聚焦社会的实际情况，徒然增加预算，反而进一步恶化了财政状况。高市早苗这样的政策不仅很 难产生促进民间投资的效果，而且会大概率地增加巨额政府债务。因为这种危机管理投资是旨在强行代替进口，这与自由贸易背道而驰。结 果，违背经济原理的措施只能让日本企业的生产效率继续下降，迫使日本国民不得不购买没有性价比的产品。 不合时宜的积极财政，会进一步恶化日本财政，使得日本的财政赤字更加扩大，对此，只能通过扩大国债的发行来弥补财政的缺口。日本这种 失去财政纪律制约的国债发行，势必会引起债券市场的 ...

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan and historical issues are seen as detrimental to regional stability and Japan's own interests [1] - Takaichi's policies are perceived as neglecting public welfare while aligning closely with the U.S., aiming for military expansion despite high inflation in Japan, which may lead to risks of yen depreciation and economic instability [1] - Criticism from mainstream media, the public, and opposition parties suggests that her rhetoric is inciting war and undermining trust with neighboring countries, raising concerns about her administration's future [1] Group 2 - The Japanese tourism industry is facing significant challenges due to a surge in cancellations of Chinese tourist bookings, with cancellations reaching 70% of overall orders within two days [3] - Hokkaido, a key destination for Chinese tourists, is experiencing a notable decline in visitor numbers, impacting local businesses such as hotels and tour services [3][4] - Predictions indicate that the cancellation of Chinese tourist bookings could lead to a reduction in Japan's tourism revenue by approximately 1.79 trillion yen (about 11.5 billion USD) over the next year, potentially decreasing Japan's GDP by 0.29% [4] Group 3 - The cancellation of the trilateral cultural minister meeting between China, Japan, and South Korea is attributed to rising tensions following Takaichi's comments, with China condemning her statements as harmful to regional cooperation [5] - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 2.4% to 48,625.88 points, marking a weekly decline of 3.48%, with significant drops in major stocks, particularly in the AI sector [5] Group 4 - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that the central bank must consider the impact of a weak yen on import costs and inflation, suggesting potential tightening of monetary policy to support the yen [7] - Concerns are raised about the volatility in the Japanese market, which is perceived as more alarming than recent fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, with warnings of potential capital flight if investor confidence wanes [7]

智通财经APP获悉，日本新任首相高市早苗正面临她政治生涯的首次重大市场考验，围绕她领导的新一届日本政府即将出台超 大规模刺激方案的紧张情绪，正在全面吞噬着她当选时所点燃的金融市场上涨行情。自本周以来，曾经被所谓的"高市早苗狂 热交易"所点燃的日本股市持续暴跌，周二日经225指数更是跌超3%录得4月以来最大跌幅，而日元与日本国债则因极度崇 尚"安倍经济学"的高市早苗欲推出大规模刺激政策而迈向悲观的持续下跌轨迹。 市场愈发担心高市早苗的庞大支出计划将进一步恶化日本长期以来的悲观财政状况，推动日本国债价格大幅下跌，并加剧了日 元的持续疲软，日元进一步滑入可能触发财务省干预的极度危险区间——日元兑美元疯狂贬值至10个月以来的最低点。与此同 时，日经225股票指数在本周录得自4月以来的最大跌幅。 现年64岁的高市是一名保守民族主义者，将英国前首相玛格丽特·撒切尔列为其榜样之一。她长期以来是曾遭暗杀的日本任期 最长首相安倍晋三的盟友，并且是安倍政策的坚定跟随者，这也是为何当前金融市场开始押注"安倍经济学"(Abenomics)即将 重出江湖。 近期在全球范围火热所谓的"高市早苗交易"即指代日本自民党新总裁高市早苗胜选后， ...

01 经济增长失速的内外夹击 高市早苗接过首相职位的同时，也接过了一系列棘手的经济问题。 日本经济再度亮起红灯，内阁府近日公布的数据显示，日本三季度实际国内生产总值按年率计算下降1.8%，自 2024年第一季度以来再次出现负增长。 "经济衰退与贫富分化之间，这位女首相的政治命运，背后是日本社会的结构性困境。" 东京证券交易所的屏幕近日一片惨淡。日经225指数连续四个交易日下滑，累计跌幅达4.8%，市值蒸发约1.2万亿 日元，创下近三个月来最大跌幅。 这一市场震荡恰逢日本新任首相高市早苗发表一系列涉台错误言论之时，这引发日本政坛元老们纷纷炮轰。日本 维新会创始人桥下彻在电视节目中直言："没有那么大的实力，却偏要口出逞强之言，才会变成现在这样。" 这一经济衰退源于内外需的双重压力。外需方面，受美国关税影响，日本出口连续4个月萎缩。内需方面，占日本 经济总量过半的私人消费增速也显著放缓，从第二季度的0.4%放缓至0.1%。由于生活成本高企导致实际工资停滞 不前，日本家庭仍在削减可自由支配的支出。 与此同时，日本的物价持续上涨。日本首都东京10月核心消费者物价指数同比上涨2.8%，连续高于日本央行2%的 通胀目标。甚 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are on high alert regarding the unexpectedly weak demand for Japan's 20-year and 40-year government bond auctions, particularly ahead of the new government's economic stimulus plan under Prime Minister Kishi Sanae [1][2] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds rose to 2.815%, marking the highest level since 1999, driven by concerns over increased fiscal spending plans that may significantly boost inflation and exacerbate Japan's already heavy debt burden [1] - The 40-year bond yield surged by 8 basis points to its highest level since its public market debut in 2007, indicating heightened market volatility [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the previous 20-year bond auction was 3.56, compared to a 12-month average of 3.30, suggesting potential weakness in upcoming auctions [4] Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Concerns - A faction within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is urging the government to prepare a substantial budget of approximately 25 trillion yen (about 161 billion USD) to support the forthcoming stimulus plan [4] - Recent data showed a contraction in Japan's GDP for the last quarter, providing justification for the government's push for significant fiscal expansion [4] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that as investors grow increasingly wary of the potential scale of stimulus exceeding market expectations, Japan's fiscal risk premium is returning, which could exert significant selling pressure on long-term sovereign bonds and the yen [4] Group 3: Global Market Implications - Amundi's recent report indicated that due to concerns over increased borrowing by the new Prime Minister, yields on long-term Japanese government bonds may reach new historical highs in the coming months [5] - The potential for a "Japanese bond sell-off storm" could re-emerge, reminiscent of past market disruptions, if long-term bond yields rise sharply [5] - The "Sanae trade" reflects market expectations for a revival of "Abenomics," characterized by stronger fiscal stimulus, industry support, and a cautious stance on monetary tightening, leading to significant fluctuations in the stock, bond, and currency markets [6]

周三（11月19日）亚洲时段，美元/日元徘徊在九个月高位附近，最新美元兑日元汇率报155.4200，跌幅 0.05%。周二受日本三季度疲软GDP数据拖累，日元走势承压，美元兑日元汇率持续上行并站稳155关 口上方。 美元兑日元汇率周二延续涨势，盘中一度触及九个半月新高，兑欧元同样走强。市场对日本财政政策的 担忧持续发酵，同时投资者正等待美国关键数据为美联储政策路径提供明确方向。 市场对日本财政政策的担忧支撑了该货币对，并等待美国经济数据以判断美联储的下一步动向。美联储 会议纪要将于周三晚些时候公布，届时将成为市场关注的焦点。 美元/日元技术分析 在日本方面，尽管日本央行行长植田和男暗示可能最早下个月加息，但首相高市早苗对此表示不满，要 求央行配合政府重振经济，这一政策分歧引发市场对日本财政纪律的担忧。巴克莱银行分析认为，高市 首相推行安倍经济学式政策将继续对日元构成压力。 美元兑日元汇率稳步上行并站稳155关口。鳄鱼指标（Alligator）呈上行态势，确认当前多头动能。汇 率有望进一步向156局部阻力位攀升。若多头能守住155关口，美元对日元汇率可能延续上行趋势；反 之，若空头重新掌控局面并推动汇率有效跌破 ...

转自：新华财经 •星展集团：多重内外压力下，菲律宾经济增速将在2025下半年至2026年放缓 •美国银行全球基金经理调查显示，45%受访者视人工智能泡沫为最大尾部风险，54%认为"美股七巨 头"是最拥挤交易。投资者警示，若美联储不降息，市场泡沫将进一步修正。当前现金水平仅3.7%，为 强烈"卖出信号"；尽管全球超配股票和大宗商品比例达阶段性高点，但看涨布局正面临逆风，新兴市场 与银行股最易受四季度避险情绪冲击。 【机构分析】 •巴克莱经济学家指出，日本首相高市早苗延续"安倍经济学"政策立场，财政扩张倾向明显，叠加日元 对财政风险高度敏感，预计美元兑日元将维持高位。 •摩根士丹利预计，受印度国内经济稳健、全球温和增长及油价平稳支撑，印度股市估值已大幅修正。 预计BSE Sensex指数到2026年12月将上涨约13%。 •三菱日联摩根士丹利证券策略师指出，若日本央行推迟加息，恐致日元进一步走弱、推高进口成本， 与高市政府提高实际工资的目标相悖，并强调本次会谈关键在于厘清"政策协调"的具体含义。日本央行 行长植田和男将与首相高市早苗举行首次正式双边会谈，市场密切关注其是否释放加息信号。植田此前 暗示最早12月加息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, supported by government bond yield differentials and technical factors, leading to uncertainty in the currency's direction [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Bank of Japan, under Governor Ueda, maintains an accommodative stance to support recovery, while the new Prime Minister, Sanna Takagi, continues "Abenomics," reducing expectations for interest rate hikes by year-end [1] - The policy interest rate in Japan is 0.5%, with a differential of over 300 basis points compared to the US Federal Funds Rate, attracting funds for carry trades that support the exchange rate [1] - Despite weaker data in October raising the probability of a Fed rate cut to 60%, the resolution of the government shutdown has improved risk appetite, diminishing the safe-haven demand for the yen [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The current exchange rate is in a consolidation phase, with the 154 level being crucial for both bulls and bears; after hitting a low of 152.80 on November 7, the rate rebounded to 154.49 on the 14th, indicating solid support [2] - Technical indicators show bullish signals, with the RSI remaining above 50, and the 20-day moving average around 152.52 providing dual support; a pullback to this level may attract buyers [2] - Resistance levels are identified at 154.48 and 154.83; a breakthrough above 154.83 could target the 155 level, with some institutions predicting a potential rise to 160 by year-end [2]