Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the fiscal performance of China, particularly in September, highlighting improvements in both fiscal revenue and expenditure compared to previous months. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Growth**: - Fiscal revenue growth increased to **2.6% year-on-year (yoy)** in September from **2.0% yoy** in August, while fiscal expenditure growth rose to **3.1% yoy** from **0.8% yoy** [1][2][6] - The growth in tax revenue was a significant contributor, offsetting a deeper contraction in non-tax revenue [3][6] 2. **Property-Related Revenue**: - Property-related government revenue showed some improvement, with land sales revenue contracting by **0.9% yoy** in September compared to **-5.4% yoy** in August, and property-related tax revenue contracting by **3.4% yoy** from **-11.6% yoy** [2][7] - Overall, government revenue from the property sector declined by **1.6% yoy** in September, an improvement from **-7.0% yoy** in August [7] 3. **Augmented Fiscal Deficit (AFD)**: - The AFD ratio was reported at **-12.6% of GDP** on a 3-month moving average basis, slightly widening from **-12.4%** in August [3][8] - The fiscal "spend-through" ratio increased to **98.8%** in September from **97.3%** in August, indicating an acceleration in fund deployment by the government [8][9] 4. **Future Expectations**: - Despite improvements, structural challenges remain, including a soft labor market and a prolonged property downturn, necessitating targeted easing measures [9] - The majority of growth impulses from recent easing measures are expected to materialize in late 2025 or early 2026 [9] Additional Important Information - The report indicates that the year-to-date government revenue from land sales has fallen by **4.2% yoy**, with a forecast for a **5-10% contraction** for the year due to less favorable base effects in Q4 [7] - The report also notes a significant increase in stamp tax revenue from stock trading, which surged to **342% yoy** in September from **226% yoy** in August, although it only accounted for less than **1%** of total fiscal revenue [6] This summary encapsulates the key points regarding China's fiscal performance and the implications for future economic conditions, highlighting both improvements and ongoing challenges in the fiscal landscape.