人民网昆明11月25日电 (记者李发兴)一般公共预算收入预计增长9.4%，一般公共预算支出预计增长 10.94%……11月24日，云南省财政厅在云南省"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列新闻发布会·财政工作专场 上晒出了"十四五"时期财政账本。从数据来看，"十四五"时期，云南财政收入总量稳中有增，支出力度 持续增强。 74%左右的财政支出用于民生 云南省一般公共预算支出五年预计达到3.39万亿元，比"十三五"时期增加3342.19亿元，增长10.94%。过 去4年，省本级从政府性基金预算、国有资本经营预算调入一般公共预算的资金规模达到86.6亿元，集 中财力将更多"真金白银"投向发展大事和民生实事。 "十四五"时期，云南省民生领域支出预计达2.5万亿元，占一般公共预算支出的比重均保持在74%左右， 特别是与人民群众息息相关的教育、社会保障、就业、卫生健康支出，占到民生支出总量的一半以上， 学生资助、基本养老、基本医疗、社会救助、优抚等标准逐步提高。 财政资金投向上，云南集中财力加大对乡村振兴、绿色发展、对外开放、扩大内需等重要决策部署的支 持力度。"十四五"时期，全省农林水支出4572.54亿元、生态环境保护支出 ...

11月17日，财政部发布2025年1—10月财政收支情况。数据显示，全国一般公共预算收入月度增幅继续 提高，累计增幅稳步回升。10月份，全国一般公共预算收入2.26万亿元，同比增长3.2%。其中，中央、 地方收入分别同比增长2.3%、4%。1月份至10月份，全国一般公共预算收入186490亿元，同比增长 0.8%。增幅比1月份至9月份提高0.3个百分点。 税收收入持续较快增长。10月份，全国税收收入2.07万亿元，同比增长8.6%，与9月份的同比增长8.7% 基本持平。1月份至10月份，全国税收收入15.34万亿元，同比增长1.7%，增幅比1月份至9月份提高1个 百分点。 1月份至10月份，主要税收收入项目中，国内增值税、国内消费税、企业所得税、个人所得税分别同比 增长4%、2.4%、1.9%、11.5%，增幅比1月份至9月份分别提高0.4个、0.2个、1.1个、1.8个百分点。印 花税3781亿元，同比增长29.5%。其中，证券交易印花税1629亿元，同比增长88.1%。 主要支出科目情况中，社会保障和就业支出37742亿元，同比增长9.3%；教育支出34117亿元，同比增 长4.7%；卫生健康支出1687 ...

Group 1: Market Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that central banks may significantly increase gold purchases in November, with gold prices potentially rising to $4,900 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Policy News - China's fiscal revenue from January to October reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, up 2% [4] - In October, China's foreign exchange settlement by banks was $214.2 billion, with a surplus of $17.7 billion, indicating a net inflow of cross-border funds [4] - The real estate market in China is stabilizing, with second-hand home transactions dominating, showing a 4.7% year-on-year increase in transaction area from January to October [4] Group 3: Employment and Inflation - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson noted an increase in downside risks to employment, while inflation risks may have slightly decreased [5] - The White House's National Economic Council Director Hassett indicated mixed signals in the labor market, suggesting a potential slowdown [5] Group 4: International Economic Data - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2024, primarily due to weak exports and residential investment [6] - The European Commission forecasts a faster-than-expected economic expansion in the Eurozone, with GDP growth projected at 1.3% for the year [6] - India's trade deficit widened to a record $41.68 billion in October, influenced by increased gold imports and decreased exports to the U.S. [6] Group 5: Commodity and Industry News - Indonesia plans to implement an export tax of 7.5% to 15% on gold products starting next year [6] - Mysteel reported a decrease in iron ore arrivals in China, with total arrivals at 2,369.9 million tons, down 399.4 million tons week-on-week [7] - The coal market is experiencing a decline in operational rates, with a reported drop in production and inventory levels [8]

Summary of Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure (January to October 2025) Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for the first ten months of 2025 shows a slight increase, while non-tax revenue has declined, indicating mixed fiscal health. [1][2] Group 1: Public Budget Revenue - Total public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 153,364 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1] - Non-tax revenue was 33,126 billion yuan, showing a decline of 3.1% year-on-year [1] - Central government public budget revenue was 81,856 billion yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year [1] - Local government public budget revenue was 104,634 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Public Budget Expenditure - Total public budget expenditure reached 225,825 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [1] - Central government public budget expenditure was 34,727 billion yuan, increasing by 6.3% year-on-year [1] - Local government public budget expenditure was 191,098 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [1] Group 3: Government Fund Budget Revenue - Government fund budget revenue totaled 34,473 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year [2] - Central government fund budget revenue was 3,618 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year [2] - Local government fund budget revenue was 30,855 billion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year, with land use rights transfer revenue at 24,982 billion yuan, decreasing by 7.4% year-on-year [2] Group 4: Government Fund Budget Expenditure - Government fund budget expenditure reached 80,892 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 15.4% [2] - Central government fund budget expenditure was 8,564 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2 times [2] - Local government fund budget expenditure was 72,328 billion yuan, up 7.3% year-on-year, with related expenditures for land use rights transfer at 33,752 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, 2025, the yields of most active treasury bonds declined. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.52%. Domestically, economic indicators in October showed a mixed performance, with some weakening and some improving. Overseas, the US government averted a shutdown, but the employment market showed downward risks, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December dropped significantly. The economy in Q4 is expected to continue a weak recovery. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy, and the space for further monetary easing this year is limited. Currently in a policy vacuum, interest rates may fluctuate narrowly in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.03%, 0.03%, 0.01%, and 0.06% respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 1244, 3133, 2388, and 1158 respectively [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603, T12 - TL12, TS12 - T12, TS12 - TF12 spreads decreased by 0.01, 0.06, 0.01, and 0.01 respectively. T2512 - 2603, TF2512 - 2603 spreads increased by 0.00 and 0.01 respectively [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased by 10869, 8352, 2955, and 6927 respectively. T top 20 net short positions increased by 1874, TF top 20 net short positions decreased by 1152, TS top 20 net short positions decreased by 34, and TL top 20 net short positions decreased by 683 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD Bonds - The net prices of multiple CTD bonds increased, such as 220017.IB up 0.0041, 220019.IB up 0.0043, etc. [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of 1 - year bonds remained unchanged, 3 - year and 7 - year and 10 - year bonds decreased by 0.25bp, 0.55bp, and 0.25bp respectively, and 5 - year bonds increased by 0.20bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, Shibor overnight, silver - pledged 7 - day, and Shibor 7 - day increased by 0.66bp, 1.70bp, 3.00bp, and 0.40bp respectively. Silver - pledged 14 - day decreased by 3.00bp, and Shibor 14 - day remained unchanged [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 4075 billion, the maturity scale was 4038 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day [2] 3.9 Industry News - China protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan. From January to October, national fiscal revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and fiscal expenditure increased by 2%. In October, the bank settlement - sale surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and cross - border capital inflows increased [2] 3.10 Key Events to Watch - On November 20 at 3:00, the Fed will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting. On November 20, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non - farm payroll report [3]

Core Insights - The fiscal revenue and expenditure data for the first ten months of the year shows a slight increase in public budget revenue and expenditure, indicating a continuation of improvement in fiscal conditions [1][2]. Revenue Analysis - From January to October, the total public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. Tax revenue accounted for 153,364 billion yuan, growing by 1.7%, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.1% to 33,126 billion yuan [2][3]. - The central government's public budget revenue was 81,856 billion yuan, down 0.8%, while local government revenue increased by 2.1% to 104,634 billion yuan [2]. - Tax revenue growth has shown a recovery trend for eight consecutive months, with an October year-on-year growth rate of 8.6%. The overall tax revenue growth target for the year is set at 3.7% [2][3]. Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure for the same period was 225,825 billion yuan, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year. Central government expenditure rose by 6.3% to 34,727 billion yuan, while local government expenditure increased by 1.2% to 191,098 billion yuan [5]. - Expenditure in social security and employment grew by 9.3%, education by 4.7%, and science and technology by 5.7%, indicating a focus on social welfare and development [5][6]. Sector-Specific Insights - The growth in tax revenue was particularly strong in personal income tax, which increased by 11.5%, and stamp duty, which surged by 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 88.1% [3]. - The analysis suggests that the recovery in tax revenue is linked to improved economic conditions, including a more active capital market and the implementation of new tax reporting regulations for internet platform enterprises [3][4]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the fiscal revenue growth target for the year is likely to be achieved, supported by a moderate recovery in prices and effective fiscal policies [4]. - There is a need for increased fiscal spending in the last two months of the year, especially in infrastructure and public welfare sectors, to counteract the slower spending observed in October [5][6].

财政部11月17日发布数据显示，今年前10个月，全国一般公共预算收入186490亿元，同比增长 0.8％，比前9个月提高0.3个百分点。 各级财政部门认真落实更加积极的财政政策，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，持续加强对重点领域 的支出保障。前10个月，教育支出同比增长4.7％；科学技术支出同比增长5.7％；社会保障和就业支出 同比增长9.3％；节能环保支出4235亿元，同比增长7％。 政府性基金预算收支方面，前10个月，全国政府性基金预算收入34473亿元，同比下降2.8％；全国 政府性基金预算支出80892亿元，同比增长15.4％。 扫一扫在手机打开当前页 其中，全国税收收入153364亿元，同比增长1.7％；非税收入33126亿元，同比下降3.1％。分中央和 地方看，前10个月，中央一般公共预算收入81856亿元，同比下降0.8％；地方一般公共预算本级收入 104634亿元，同比增长2.1％。 从单月数据来看，10月份，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长3.2％，比9月份增速进一步提高。 财政支出方面，前10个月，全国一般公共预算支出225825亿元，同比增长2％。分中央和地方看， 中央一般公共预算本级支出347 ...

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for January to October reached 186,490 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, indicating a slight acceleration in growth compared to the previous nine months [1] - Public budget expenditure for the same period was 225,825 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but the growth rate has slowed down by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [1] Revenue Analysis - In October, public budget revenue grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with tax revenue increasing by 8.6% while non-tax revenue fell by 33% [1] - Major tax categories showed varied performance: VAT revenue grew by 7.2%, consumption tax revenue increased by 4.5%, while corporate income tax growth slowed to 7.3% [2][4] - Personal income tax revenue surged by 27.3%, reflecting both a low base effect and improved tax collection efforts [2] Expenditure Analysis - In October, public budget expenditure decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, contrasting with a 3.1% increase in the previous month, indicating a significant drop in spending [4][5] - The decline in expenditure is attributed to a high base from the previous year and local fiscal constraints [4] - Infrastructure-related spending saw substantial declines, with specific categories like energy conservation and transportation experiencing double-digit decreases [4][5] Broader Fiscal Context - The cumulative growth rate of general public budget expenditure for the first ten months was 76.0%, below the five-year average of 77.4% [5] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue dropping by 7.4% [5] - The overall broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% in October, a significant drop compared to a 2.3% increase in September, influenced by high base effects and prior fiscal measures [6] Future Outlook - The issuance of 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt is expected to accelerate in November and December, potentially supporting fiscal expenditure and economic recovery [1][6][7] - The implementation of new policy financial tools also indicates a strengthening of fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing growth [7]

Revenue Insights - In the first ten months of 2025, total fiscal revenue reached 18.65 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[1] - October fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.16%[1] - Tax revenue in October was 2.07 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6%[3] Expenditure Trends - Total fiscal expenditure for the first ten months was 22.58 trillion, up 2% year-on-year[1] - October fiscal expenditure was 1.78 trillion, reflecting a significant decline of 9.78% year-on-year[1] - The expenditure progress for October accounted for only 6% of the annual total, below the seasonal average of 6.5%[9] Non-Tax Revenue and Land Sales - Non-tax revenue in October was 191.4 billion, down 33% year-on-year, marking a five-year low[3] - Government fund revenue in October was 375.6 billion, a decrease of 18.4% year-on-year[10] - Land transfer revenue fell to 268 billion, down 27.3% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the decline in government fund revenue[10] Future Outlook - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to be proactive and expansionary, with a projected deficit rate of around 4%[2] - Total fiscal expenditure for 2026 is anticipated to reach 43 trillion, an increase of 1.13 trillion compared to 2025[2] - The focus will shift towards "investment in people" alongside traditional infrastructure investments[4]

冯琳认为，当月工业生产增速较快下行，但反内卷推进下部分行业供需好转，叠加有色金属价格上涨等 因素，带动工业品价格改善，对增值税收入增长有所支撑；消费税的增长背后是今年"双十一"提前启 动、金价上涨、假期出行等因素提振相关应税商品销售；企业所得税收入同比增速较上月放缓，主要是 9月和10月分别为缴税小月和大月，企业所得税绝对规模差异较大，增速出现剧烈波动属于正常现象。 至于个人所得税，"今年以来，个人所得税收入保持较快增长，除因低基数外，可能还与加强个税征管 有关。"冯琳表示。 华泰证券认为，10月个人所得税同比增长较9月的16.9%回升至27.3%，部分受个人投资者境外投资收益 补税提振。 【大河财立方 记者 陈玉静】11月17日，财政部披露前10月财政收支情况，1-10月，全国一般公共预算 收入186490亿元，同比增长0.8%。其中，全国税收收入153364亿元，同比增长1.7%；非税收入33126亿 元，同比下降3.1%。在几个主要税种的税收收入上，个人所得税同比增长亮眼。前10个月个人所得税 13363亿元，同比增长11.5%。 从单月来看，10月个人所得税的增长也较快。东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳 ...