支出方面，本市加强财政资源和预算统筹，坚持有保有压，持续优化支出结构，做好全市重点工作、重 大项目和民生实事财力保障。数据显示，1至8月，全市一般公共预算支出完成5456.6亿元，同比增长 1.7%。 本报讯（记者 孙杰）1至8月，在一揽子增量政策成效显现、财源建设成果持续巩固的带动下，北京全 市一般公共预算收入完成4528.8亿元，同比增长3.2%。市财政局最新公布的财政收支情况显示，前八个 月，全市地方级税收收入完成3978.6亿元，同比增长5.3%；税收收入占比87.9%，收入质量位列全国首 位。 分税种看，增值税完成1393.8亿元，同比增长3.3%，继续保持平稳增长。增长主要由互联网批发、新能 源汽车重点企业业务量增长带动。企业所得税完成1246.6亿元，同比增长13.6%，延续两位数增长态 势。增长主要由信息科技类重点企业经营效益增加带动。个人所得税完成545.6亿元，同比增长7.2%。 二季度以来，个人所得税保持7%左右的较快增长态势，主要由资本市场活跃、上市公司分红等因素带 动。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. In the short term, institutional behavior, expectations of incremental policies, and changes in the capital market are the main driving factors. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue in August economic data, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly, with yields expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [97][98] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, and T contracts increased, while that of the TL contract decreased. The open interests of all TS, TF, T, and TL contracts increased [13][17][23][31] - **Performance of Deliverable Bonds**: The prices of some deliverable bonds changed, such as the 30 - year 210005 IB falling 0.14 and the 10 - year 220017 IB rising 0.05 [13] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales reached 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, and fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%. The Sino - US economic and trade leaders held talks and reached a basic framework consensus on some issues [34] - **Overseas News**: US retail sales in August were 732.01 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The initial jobless claims were 231,000, a significant drop. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25% [10][35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds widened slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed slightly. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year contract main contracts widened slightly. The 10 - year and 30 - year contract inter - period spreads widened significantly, the 5 - year contract inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract inter - period spread widened [44][48][52] - **Treasury Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T contract increased significantly [64] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all increased. The yields of treasury bonds due in 1 - 7 years changed between - 1 and 2 basis points, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose by about 0.4 and 1 basis points to 1.80% and 2.10% respectively [68] - **Sino - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US treasury bonds widened slightly [73] - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits, with 1264.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.50% [77] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1708.793 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1190.265 billion yuan, and a net financing of 518.528 billion yuan [81] - **Market Sentiment** - **USD/CNY Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1128, with a cumulative depreciation of 109 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB weakened [86] - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds oscillated upward, and the VIX index increased [91] - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [94] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In August, industrial growth, social retail, and export growth slowed down, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate rose seasonally. Social financing growth declined slightly, and credit growth was weak. The economic recovery has slowed down since July, and the manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and macro - policies need to boost domestic demand [97] - **Overseas Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased significantly, but overall employment growth slowed down. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October increased [97] - **Bond Market Outlook and Strategy**: The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities [98]

本报北京9月18日电(记者汪文正)记者从财政部获悉，今年前8个月，全国一般公共预算收入148198亿 元，同比增长0.3%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入64268亿元，同比下降1.7%；地方一般公 共预算本级收入83930亿元，同比增长1.8%。 今年前8个月，全国税收收入121085亿元，同比微增0.02%；非税收入27113亿元，同比增长1.5%。从主 要税收收入项目来看，国内增值税47389亿元，同比增长3.2%；国内消费税11523亿元，同比增长2%； 企业所得税31477亿元，同比增长0.3%；个人所得税10547亿元，同比增长8.9%。 支出方面，各级财政部门认真落实更加积极的财政政策，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，持续加强对重 点领域的支出保障。前8个月，全国一般公共预算支出179324亿元，同比增长3.1%。分中央和地方看， 中央一般公共预算本级支出26570亿元，同比增长8%；地方一般公共预算支出152754亿元，同比增长 2.3%。 看主要支出科目，前8个月，教育支出27078亿元，同比增长5.6%；科学技术支出5874亿元，同比增长 3.1%；文化旅游体育与传媒支出2272亿元，同 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年09月18日 2025 年 8 月财政数据快评 又到政策蓄力时 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 1-8 月，全国一般公共预算收入 148198 亿元，同比增长 0.3%。其中，全国税收收入 121085 亿元，同比微 增 0.02%；非税收入 27113 亿元，同比增长 1.5%。 1-8 月，全国一般公共预算支出 179324 亿元，同比增长 3.1%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算本级 支出 26570 亿元，同比增长 8%；地方一般公共预算支出 152754 亿元，同比增长 2.3%。 评论： 一般公共预算收支两端同时边际转弱。收入增速边际回落。8 月一般公共预算收入当月同比 2%，前值 2.6%。 税收收入当月同比 3.4%，前值 5%；非税收入当月同比-3.8%，前值 ...

Industry Overview Upstream - Glass prices have declined [1] - Egg prices have significantly rebounded [1] Midstream - PX and PTA operating rates have remained stable at a medium level [2] - Coal consumption by power plants has increased [2] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third-tier cities have rebounded [2] - The number of domestic flights has increased [2] Key Events Production Industry - On the 17th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicly solicited opinions from the society on the mandatory national standard "Safety Requirements for Intelligent Connected Vehicle Combined Driving Assistance Systems". The draft for comments has established a safety baseline for intelligent connected vehicle products, requiring the system to be activated only under its designed operating conditions. For different functions such as single-lane, multi-lane, and pilot assistance, comprehensive safety technical requirements such as human-machine interaction, functional safety and expected functional safety, information safety, and data recording have been set, constructing a "triple safety guarantee" [1] Service Industry - The Ministry of Finance released the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation from January to August 2025, showing that the stamp duty revenue was 284.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%. Among them, the securities transaction stamp duty revenue was 118.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.7%. According to the data previously released by the Ministry of Finance, the securities transaction stamp duty revenue from January to July 2025 was 93.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.5%. This means that the securities transaction stamp duty in August this year was 25.1 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 66.23% compared to 15.1 billion yuan in July and a year-on-year increase of 225.97% compared to August 2024 [1] Key Data Price Index | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Price | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 2294.3 | -0.68% | | Agriculture | Spot price: Egg | H | Yuan/kg | 9/16 | 7.9 | 11.63% | | Agriculture | Spot price: Palm oil | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 9516.0 | -0.04% | | Agriculture | Spot price: Cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 15299.8 | -0.23% | | Agriculture | Average wholesale price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/16 | 19.9 | 0.10% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Copper | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 81196.7 | 1.64% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Zinc | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 22218.0 | 0.22% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 20960.0 | 1.29% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 123750.0 | 1.63% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Aluminum | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 17031.3 | 1.49% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Rebar | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 3148.0 | -0.17% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 807.9 | 0.97% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 3352.5 | 1.06% | | Others | Spot price: Glass | H | Yuan/square meter | 9/16 | 14.0 | -1.75% | | Others | Spot price: Natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 15166.7 | -0.05% | | Others | China Plastic City Price Index | H | Point | 9/16 | 793.6 | -0.54% | | Energy | Spot price: WTI crude oil | H | US dollars/barrel | 9/16 | 63.3 | 1.67% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | H | US dollars/barrel | 9/16 | 67.4 | 2.15% | | Energy | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 3876.0 | -0.56% | | Energy | Coal price: Coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 776.0 | -0.26% | | Chemical | Spot price: PTA | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 4633.8 | -0.21% | | Chemical | Spot price: Polyethylene | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 7378.3 | -0.18% | | Chemical | Spot price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 1665.0 | -1.55% | | Chemical | Spot price: Soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 1262.5 | 0.00% | | Real estate | Cement price index: National | H | Point | 9/16 | 131.5 | 0.72% | | Real estate | Building materials composite index | H | Point | 9/16 | | 0.84% | | Real estate | Concrete price index: National index | H | Point | 9/16 | 92.0 | -0.72% | [33]

./01234567892025-09-18 8 !"#$%&'()*+,-./01234 ——!"#$%&'(! !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'() *+,-./01121/34 5) !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 9 月 17 日财政部公布 2025 年 1-8 月财政收支情况。其中：一般公共预 算收入同比增长 0.3%（增值税 3.2 %，个人所得税 8.9 %，印花税 27.4 %、企业所得税 增长 0.3 %；消费税 2 %、出口退税 9 %）；一般公共预算支出同比 3.1 %（社会保障和 就业 10 %；教育 5.6 %）。政府性基金预算收入同比-1.4 %（中央 0.6 %，地方-1.6 %）； 政府性基金预算支出同比 30 %（中央 3.1 倍，地方 18.8 %）。 &'"( ■ !"#$%& 一般公共预算收入：2025 年 1-8 月一般公共预算收入进度 67.4%，略低于过去五年同期 均值，名义增长的压力依然存在。8月 CPI同比下降 0.4%，维持低通胀的特征。累计增 速年扩大， ...

人民日报北京9月17日电 财政部公布今年1至8月财政收支主要数据。1至8月，全国一般公共预算收入 148198亿元，同比增长0.3%。其中，全国税收收入121085亿元，同比微增0.02%；非税收入27113亿 元，同比增长1.5%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入64268亿元，同比下降1.7%；地方一般公 共预算本级收入83930亿元，同比增长1.8%。 1至8月，全国一般公共预算支出179324亿元，同比增长3.1%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算本 级支出26570亿元，同比增长8%；地方一般公共预算支出152754亿元，同比增长2.3%。重点领域支出得 到有效保障。教育支出27078亿元，同比增长5.6%；科学技术支出5874亿元，同比增长3.1%；社会保障 和就业支出30723亿元，同比增长10%；卫生健康支出13717亿元，同比增长5.1%。（记者曲哲涵） 税收方面，1至8月，国内增值税收入47389亿元，同比增长3.2%；国内消费税收入11523亿元，同比增 长2%；进口货物增值税、消费税收入11770亿元，同比下降6.7%；关税收入1527亿元，同比下降6.5%； 印花税收入2844亿 ...

1至8月，全国一般公共预算支出179324亿元，同比增长3.1%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算本 级支出26570亿元，同比增长8%；地方一般公共预算支出152754亿元，同比增长2.3%。重点领域支出得 到有效保障。教育支出27078亿元，同比增长5.6%；科学技术支出5874亿元，同比增长3.1%；社会保障 和就业支出30723亿元，同比增长10%；卫生健康支出13717亿元，同比增长5.1%。 《 人民日报 》（ 2025年09月18日 12 版） 税收方面，1至8月，国内增值税收入47389亿元，同比增长3.2%；国内消费税收入11523亿元，同比增 长2%；进口货物增值税、消费税收入11770亿元，同比下降6.7%；关税收入1527亿元，同比下降6.5%； 印花税收入2844亿元，同比增长27.4%，其中证券交易印花税1187亿元，同比增长81.7%。 本报北京9月17日电 （记者曲哲涵）财政部公布今年1至8月财政收支主要数据。1至8月，全国一般公共 预算收入148198亿元，同比增长0.3%。其中，全国税收收入121085亿元，同比微增0.02%；非税收入 27113亿元，同比增长1.5%。分 ...

李旭红认为，财政支出保持较快增长，体现出更加积极的财政政策继续发力，重点领域支出保障有力， 有效托底民生，为经济稳健运行提供了坚实支撑。 同时，各级财政部门加快债券资金发行使用。前8个月，列入政府性基金预算的地方政府专项债券、超 长期特别国债、中央金融机构注资特别国债资金支出3.39万亿元，带动政府性基金预算支出增长30%。 财政部部长蓝佛安近日表示，下一步，财政部门将继续保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，加 强对形势的前瞻研判，做好政策储备，主动靠前发力，为经济社会高质量发展贡献财政力量。 "财政收入结构进一步优化，对于财政的可持续性将发挥积极作用。主要税种中，国内增值税、国内消 费税、个人所得税、印花税等保持较快增长，显示出经济回升向好和资本市场活跃的带动效应。"北京 国家会计学院副院长、教授李旭红说。 中国社会科学院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任、研究员何代欣分析，企业所得税实现正增长的意义很 大，关键领域、重点行业和重点企业的增长功不可没；文化体育娱乐业等方面的税收增速加快，受益于 提振消费政策的作用和服务业的增长。 支出方面，全国一般公共预算支出保持增长，重点领域支出得到较好保障。各级财政部门认 ...

Revenue Summary - From January to August, the national general public budget revenue reached 14,819.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 12,108.5 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.02% [1] - Non-tax revenue was 2,711.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [1] - Central government revenue was 6,426.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [1] - Local government revenue was 8,393.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax revenue was 4,738.9 billion yuan, increasing by 3.2% year-on-year [1] - Domestic consumption tax revenue reached 1,152.3 billion yuan, up by 2% year-on-year [1] - Revenue from import goods value-added tax and consumption tax was 1,177.0 billion yuan, down by 6.7% year-on-year [1] - Tariff revenue was 152.7 billion yuan, decreasing by 6.5% year-on-year [1] - Stamp duty revenue was 284.4 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 27.4%, including securities transaction stamp duty of 118.7 billion yuan, which surged by 81.7% [1] Expenditure Summary - From January to August, the national general public budget expenditure totaled 17,932.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2] - Central government expenditure was 2,657.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8% [2] - Local government expenditure reached 15,275.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [2] Key Areas of Expenditure - Education expenditure was 27,078.0 billion yuan, increasing by 5.6% year-on-year [2] - Science and technology expenditure amounted to 5,874.0 billion yuan, up by 3.1% year-on-year [2] - Social security and employment expenditure reached 30,723.0 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 10% [2] - Health expenditure was 13,717.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [2]