中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷近日就楼市与股市对消费的影响及政策重点发表看法。他指出，楼市的上 涨能够有效带动消费，而股市的牛市对消费的拉动作用并不显著。李迅雷分析称，常有观点认为股市上 涨会带来财富效应，从而促进消费，但实际影响有限。虽然股票开户总数约1.3亿户，但活跃账户数量 仅在7000万左右，相对于我国14亿人口而言占比并不高。反观楼市，其在居民总资产中占比约60%，且 关联着二三十个上下游行业，产业链长、带动效应显著。因此，楼市一旦回暖，对消费及整体经济的拉 动作用更为明显。李迅雷强调，若想实现楼市稳健发展，必须在财政政策和货币政策上协同发力，为其 提供有力支撑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's fiscal policy is increasingly focused on stabilizing the economy, with a significant shift towards supporting people's livelihoods and investing in human capital during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Space - The fiscal policy space has expanded due to increased fiscal deficit rates, which have risen from 2.7% to 3.8% and further to 4% this year, allowing for more proactive fiscal measures [2][3]. - The government has arranged an additional 19.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds and over 10 trillion yuan in tax reductions and deferrals, indicating a robust fiscal response to economic challenges [2][3]. Focus on Livelihoods - Approximately 70% of fiscal spending is directed towards people's livelihoods, with total expected spending on livelihoods reaching nearly 100 trillion yuan over five years [1][7]. - Specific allocations include 20.5 trillion yuan for education, 19.6 trillion yuan for social security and employment, 10.6 trillion yuan for health, and 4 trillion yuan for housing security [7]. Support for Consumption and Innovation - The fiscal policy has shifted towards supporting consumption, with measures such as a 2 trillion yuan VAT refund policy and subsidies for personal consumption loans [6][9]. - The government plans to continue enhancing fiscal support for technology innovation, with expected spending of 5.5 trillion yuan on technology during the "14th Five-Year Plan," a 34% increase from the previous period [9]. Economic Stability and Risk Management - The fiscal policy aims to balance risk prevention and economic development, maintaining sufficient fiscal space for future initiatives [3][4]. - The government's debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 68.7% by the end of 2024, significantly lower than the G20 average, indicating room for further borrowing and deficit increases [3].