证券时报记者 孙璐璐 贺觉渊 秦燕玲 张达 程丹 韩忠楠 江聃 郭博昊 在新的一年来临之际，证券时报推出"2026宏观经济十大看点"，探寻新的一年宏观政策着 力点。 1.财政赤字和政府债券 发行规模有望提升 2026年我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，预示着财政将保持较大支持强度。为支持"十 五五"开局之年各项经济工作顺利开展，新一年的财政赤字规模与新增政府债务规模有必要提 高。 2.货币政策适度宽松 促进物价合理回升 在"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"这一目标牵引下，2026年 我国货币政策仍将保持流动性充裕。 当前居民消费价格指数（CPI）低位运行，市场普遍预计2026年政府工作报告有望将CPI涨幅 目标设定在2%左右，这个数值更加契合预期管理的引导作用和现有价格水平的变化趋势，这 也意味着，在物价水平达到目标值之前，我国货币政策都有望保持适度宽松的基调。 在具体操作上，2026年，降准降息等传统货币政策操作依然有空间，但落地的时机和节奏预 计将更突出灵活性，以保持社会融资成本低位运行。各类结构性货币政策操作有望发挥更大 作用，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融 ...

编者按：2026年是"十五五"开局之年，在新一轮五年规划的首年开好局、起好步，关乎未来五年的发展 全局。回望"十四五"，我国发展历程极不寻常、极不平凡，站在新起点，做好全年的经济工作，要坚持 稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经 济治理效能。 在新的一年来临之际，证券时报推出"2026宏观经济十大看点"，探寻新的一年宏观政策着力点。 1.财政赤字和政府债券 发行规模有望提升 2026年我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，预示着财政将保持较大支持强度。为支持"十五五"开局之 年各项经济工作顺利开展，新一年的财政赤字规模与新增政府债务规模有必要提高。 新的一年，我国财政收支紧平衡压力不减，财政刚性支出规模持续提升，这都要求财政赤字规模进一步 提高。目前，市场机构普遍看好财政赤字率不低于2025年4%的水平、财政赤字规模将不低于4.06万亿 元。在中国经济运行长期向好的态势下，由于作为分母的国内生产总值（GDP）不断扩大，2026年赤字 率水平即使维持不变，实际赤字规模仍将增长。 为推动投资止跌回稳，发挥政府投资带动作用的新增专项债券与超长期特别国债，有必要在新的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Chinese government bond market has undergone deep calibration amid frequent macro narratives and intense long-short logic battles, characterized by record supply and a proactive issuance pace in the primary market, effectively supporting active fiscal policies while the secondary market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in the 10-year bond yield, which gradually shifted downward throughout the year [1][13]. Group 1: Primary Market Dynamics - In 2025, the primary market for government bonds achieved a historic leap under the theme of "active fiscal policy moderately strengthened, quality improved," with notable features including increased supply scale, scientifically advanced issuance pace, and continuous optimization of maturity structure [2][15]. - The total issuance of government bonds reached a historic high of 16,014.02 billion yuan, a significant increase of 28.37% compared to 12,474.83 billion yuan in 2024, with 206 bonds issued throughout the year [2][15]. - The issuance of special bonds focused on long-term funding for national strategic security areas and key projects, with the issuance of ultra-long special bonds reaching 1.3 trillion yuan, expected to significantly boost annual GDP growth [5][19]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The overall issuance interest rates of government bonds declined, effectively guiding the financing costs across society. The short-term interest rates (1-3 years) ranged from 1.16% to 1.79%, while the 10-year bond issuance rate stabilized around 1.78% [6][19]. - The systematic decline in issuance costs of government bonds, as a risk-free rate anchor, directly contributed to the reduction of comprehensive financing costs in the bond market and the real economy, achieving efficient unity between fiscal sustainability and financial benefits to the real sector [6][19]. Group 3: Secondary Market Developments - The secondary market for government bonds in 2025 was characterized by complex dynamics, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating between approximately 1.6% and 1.9%, undergoing a "four-round game" of expectations that ultimately established a new oscillating equilibrium [7][21]. - The first round saw a rapid correction of overly optimistic expectations regarding monetary easing, with yields rebounding nearly 40 basis points by mid-March [9][21]. - The fourth round featured a key institutional benefit with the central bank's announcement to restart government bond trading operations, which was interpreted as a significant step in enhancing liquidity management tools and stabilizing long-term expectations [10][22]. Group 4: Strategic Role of Government Bonds - The evolution of the government bond market in 2025 transcended mere financing and trading, extending its functions to monetary policy operations, financial openness, and the construction of the national credit system [11][23]. - The "stabilizer" and "attractiveness" roles of RMB assets have strengthened, with foreign investors steadily increasing their holdings, leading to broader inclusion of government bonds in major global bond indices [11][23]. - The modernization of government bond management, including the incorporation of bond trading into the central bank's regular monetary policy toolbox, marks a significant milestone in establishing a modern central banking system [11][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The government bond market is expected to continue evolving under the overarching theme of "high-quality development," balancing necessary government financing, reducing debt costs, and maintaining financial system stability [12][24]. - As market depth, product innovation, and institutional openness progress, the yield curve of government bonds will increasingly serve as a benchmark for asset pricing across society [12][24]. - Market participants will need to shift from merely chasing interest rate trends to developing a deeper understanding of macro logic, seizing structural opportunities, and effectively managing interest rate risks to succeed in the new balanced market [12][24].

2026 固收年报：锚定下移，震荡趋稳 [Table_Author] 董利 分析师 陈国文 分析师 固定收益深度报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 证券研究报告 Email:dongli@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 证书:S1320525070001 证书:S1320524070001 投资要点： 2025 年是债券市场转型之年，我国债券市场发生了一系列重要变化。（1） 收益率从单边趋势下行转向窄幅震荡格局，全年呈现"上有顶、下有底"特 征。一季度受流动性收紧与供给放量影响，长短端利率同步上行；二季度受 关税冲击引发避险情绪升温叠加宽松货币政策，收益率明显回落；三季度 权益走强与供给高峰共振，长端利率再度上行；四季度央行重启国债买卖 后长端先降后升，短端整体锚定政策利率运行。（2）机构交易策略深度重 构，从粗放的"趋势交易"转向精细的"波段交易+息票策略"复合策略。 （3）债市规模加速扩张，成为经济转型核心融资渠道。（4）大类资产相关 性出现明显演变，国债收益率与传统资产的传统联动逻辑被打破，国债收 益率与上证、美债和黄金的相关性均不同程度由负转正，"三大反转"成 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of China's economic work in 2025 is to comprehensively rectify "involution" and disorderly competition, with policies aimed at improving product quality and stabilizing market prices [2] - The reform of state-owned enterprises is nearing completion, with significant progress in strategic functions, governance, and regulatory efficiency [4] - The introduction of the Private Economy Promotion Law marks a significant legal framework for promoting fair competition and protecting the rights of private enterprises [5] Group 2 - The resolution of local government debt risks is progressing rapidly, with a plan to replace 10 trillion yuan of hidden debts, achieving over half of the target by the end of 2025 [6] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds reached 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025, with a focus on supporting major projects and expanding consumption [6][7] - A special action plan to boost consumption was launched, emphasizing income growth and improving consumer confidence [8] Group 3 - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index reach 4000 points for the first time in ten years, driven by a recovery in technology stocks and supportive government policies [10] - Gold prices experienced a historic surge, with spot prices rising from $2625 to a peak of $4550 per ounce, driven by macroeconomic factors and central bank purchases [11] - The introduction of the "Science and Technology Innovation Growth Layer" on the STAR Market accelerated the IPO process for unprofitable companies, marking a significant shift in capital market dynamics [12] Group 4 - The deposit interest rates in China underwent a comprehensive decline, with significant adjustments across various banks, impacting personal investment behaviors [12] - The external environment, including the U.S.-China trade tensions and geopolitical factors, influenced the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to interest rate cuts [14] - The rise of DeepSeek as a key player in the AI sector reshaped global competition, emphasizing open-source strategies and high cost-performance [15] Group 5 - The external delivery market saw significant changes with the entry of new players like JD.com and the upgrade of Ele.me, leading to increased competition and consumer choice [18] - The family disputes within Wahaha highlighted the complexities of family governance in business, affecting brand perception and market dynamics [19] - The success of "Nezha 2" at the box office marked a significant milestone for Chinese animation, reflecting the industry's growth and potential for global recognition [21]

【大河财立方 记者 秦龙】2025年对于债券市场而言，是挑战与机遇并存的一年。这一年，债券市场告 别相对"躺赢"，步入高波动震荡期。同时，政策与机制的进一步优化，创新品种与新型工具的持续推 出，也为经济高质量发展提供了坚实支撑。 年终岁尾，大河财立方记者梳理2025债市领域关键词，既是对过去一年的回顾，也是对来年债券市场趋 势的探寻。 关键词一 地方化债 2025年，中国计划发行总额为2.8万亿元的专项债券用于化解地方政府隐性债务，其中，2万亿元为用于 置换隐性债务的再融资专项债，8000亿元为用于化债的特殊新增专项债。此外，10月17日，财政部宣 布，中央财政从地方政府债务结存限额中安排5000亿元下达地方，该部分结存限额一方面持续助力化 债，另一方面支持投资建设；其中，专门用于支持部分省份投资建设专项债券额度为2000亿元。 关键词二 债务管理司成立 2025年11月，财政部债务管理司的正式亮相，被外界认为政府债务多头管理的局面得到改善。从其主要 职责来看，债务司主要负责中央和地方政府债务有关管理、国债和地方政府债务余额限额、政府债务监 测监管、防范化解隐性债务风险以及外债管理等工作。 关键词三 债市"科 ...

新华财经北京12月29日电（王菁）2025岁末回望，我国债券市场在复杂的内外部环境中，以扩容提质为 主轴，描绘出一幅波澜壮阔的创新开放画卷。 它是超196万亿元总规模稳居世界第二的坚实基座，也是科技创新债券精准滴灌的"试验田"；是十年期 国债在1.6%至1.9%区间"折返跑"的博弈舞台，也是跨境"玉兰债"与"中英柜台债"等品种连接世界的开放 窗口；是公募REITs与持有型不动产ABS的相辅相成，也是债券ETF规模一年激增超300%、快速突破 7000亿元成为"吸金"主力，更是吸引全球1187家境外机构、持债约3.6万亿元的"强磁场"...... 这一年，债券市场告别单边行情，在震荡中夯实韧性，在开放中重塑格局，以金融血脉的澎湃活力，为 经济高质量发展提供了坚实支撑。 宏观背景与政策基调：协同发力，护航实体 2025年，宏观政策在复杂环境中展现出精准的协同性与前瞻性。货币政策保持支持性立场，全年实 施"适度宽松"基调。中国人民银行综合运用降准、降息、公开市场操作与中期借贷便利（MLF）等多种 工具，维持流动性合理充裕。财政政策则更加积极有为，扮演了稳投资、促需求的"关键引擎"。全年超 长期特别国债与地方政府专项 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：申万宏源宏观 摘要 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府迅速推进会议精神的学习贯彻工作。其释放的增量 信息与政策信号有何深意？本文分析，可供参考。 中财办对中央经济工作会议的解读更具体，突出内需结构性变化与"反内卷"的三个层次等。 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府围绕扩大内需、反内卷、新质生产力等方向，密集 开展会议精神的学习、解读与部署工作。各部门和地区部署亮点纷呈：中财办研判消费结构演变等，财 税部门聚焦财力保障，经济大省侧重开放布局，边疆地区强化安全建设。 综上，中央经济工作会议后，各部门及地方已贯彻会议部署。中财办聚焦内需结构优化与"反内卷"施 策，部委立足专业领域强化保障、培育新质生产力，地方因地制宜谋发展，形成央地协同、分层推进的 格局。2026 年步入后，相关部署或将逐步落地，后续需关注年初财政信贷资金到位及重大项目开工进 度，跟踪政策落地成效。 中财办解读中央经济工作会议精神，重点强调财政"为未来风险留有余地"与货币政策"前瞻性、科学性 调节"两大核心方向。融资条件方面，其提出"促进社会综合 ...

二是加强资源统筹，集中保障大事要事。聚焦先行区建设的重点领域和关键环节，全省累计统筹落实财 政资金约5000亿元。同时，积极发挥财政引导作用，量身打造了"财政+信贷""财政+担保""财政+保 险"等多种政策工具，还专门设立了先行区建设、黄河流域产业发展等若干只百亿规模的基金，吸引金 融和社会资本共同加大投入，努力为先行区建设注入更多"源头活水"。 三是强化激励约束，激发高质量发展动力活力。充分发挥体制机制"风向标"作用，用经济杠杆引领各方 面走好绿色低碳高质量发展之路。比如，设立省级促进高质量发展激励资金，进一步强化转移支付激励 功能，引导各地通过高质量发展涵养税源，提升财政收入规模和质量，实现经济与财政的良性循环。推 动水资源税改革，实施城镇土地使用税差别化试点，落实环保税改革，以绿色税制赋能绿色发展，加快 塑造山东绿色低碳转型新优势。 下一步，山东财政将持续完善政策措施，创新体制机制，推动更多政策资金向先行区建设倾斜，更多改 革试点在先行区落地，为先行区建设注入更强劲的发展动能。 齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点张如意 12月25日，省政府新闻办举行新闻发布会，邀请省财政厅主要负责同志等介绍"十四五"时期山东深化财 政 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the fiscal policy for 2025 will be "more proactive," leading to significant increases in both narrow and broad fiscal deficits, with narrow deficit expected to rise by 39% and broad deficit by 27% [1][13][14] - The issuance of government bonds will be accelerated, with net supply expected to increase by 128% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while broad fiscal expenditure is projected to show a "U"-shaped trend in 2024 and a "front high and back low" trend in 2025 [1][14] - The structure of fiscal revenue is improving, with a target growth rate for non-tax revenue set at -14.2%, indicating a reduced reliance on non-tax income [2][15][16] Group 2 - The expansion of debt resolution measures and diversification of debt resolution methods are highlighted, including the issuance of special bonds and policies targeting corporate arrears and PPP projects [2][16][17] - The expected slowdown in infrastructure investment growth in the second half of 2025 is attributed to several factors, including the completion of prior funding projects and the diversion of funds to debt resolution [3][18][19] - For 2026, the central economic work conference emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, with expectations for a slight increase in fiscal strength compared to 2025 [4][20][21] Group 3 - The anticipated fiscal revenue growth for 2026 is projected to rebound to 3%-5%, driven by price increases and tax policy adjustments [5][26][27] - The introduction of new policy financial tools is expected to significantly impact fixed asset investment, with an estimated investment scale of 1.5-2 trillion yuan in 2026 [6][28][29] - The report indicates a structural shift in consumption patterns, with a focus on new types of consumption and service consumption, as traditional durable goods consumption is expected to slow down [8][32][33] Group 4 - The report discusses the expansion of debt resolution to include non-hidden debts, with measures to clear local government arrears to enterprises [9][34][35] - The importance of improving the local tax system is highlighted, with potential reforms in consumption tax expected to accelerate [10][36][37] - The overall impact on the asset side suggests that continued fiscal strength and proactive measures will support nominal growth and micro-activity in 2026 [11][37]