【大河财立方消息】近日，中国保险资产管理业协会公布了2025年下半年保险资产管理业投资者信心调 查结果。本次调查覆盖宏观环境、市场判断、配置计划和收益预期四个方面，共有122家保险机构参 与，包括36家保险资产管理机构和86家保险公司。 债券市场方面，多数保险机构对下半年债券市场持中性偏乐观态度，预计10年期国债收益率将在1.4% 到1.6%区间，中高等级信用债收益率在1.5%到2.0%区间。下半年看好超长期特别国债、银行永续债、 可转债以及10年期以上信用债，认为经济基本面、货币政策宽松力度和市场流动性将是影响下半年债券 市场的主要因素。 A股市场方面，多数保险机构对下半年A股市场持较乐观态度，预计上证综指大概率维持在3200点至 3800点之间。下半年，保险机构更为看好沪深300相关股票，看好医药生物、电子、银行、计算机、通 信和国防军工等行业，关注人工智能、红利资产、新质生产力、高分红高股息和创新医药等投资领域， 认为企业盈利增速是影响下半年A股市场的主要因素。 境外投资偏好方面，港股投资下半年受到青睐，同时有四成保险机构还看好债券投资和黄金投资。 责编:陶纪燕 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 宏观经济 ...

按计划，今年第四批690亿元超长期特别国债资金将于10月下达，继续支持地方实施消费品以旧换新政 策。 国务院常务会议再次部署扩大内需有关举措。 据新华社消息，国务院总理李强8月22日主持召开国务院常务会议，听取实施大规模设备更新和消费品 以旧换新政策情况汇报，研究释放体育消费潜力进一步推进体育产业高质量发展的意见。 会议明确，要进一步强化财税金融等政策对"两新"的支持，创新消费投资场景，优化消费投资环境，综 合施策释放内需潜力。并对发展体育产业和体育消费作出部署。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对第一财经分析，下一步，为更好发挥"两新"政策对扩大内需的推动作 用，可有两个主要抓手：一是要加快超长期特别国债的发行使用，提高资金使用效率，使其促消费、扩 投资效应充分释放，缓解经济波动；二是要视实际情况需要，特别是根据下半年外需波动情况，将适度 增发超长期特别国债纳入政策储备，上调"两新"政策支持资金规模。 "两新"政策成效明显 国常会指出，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策，在稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生等方面取得 明显成效。 国家发改委发布的数据显示，截至2025年7月16日，全国共有2.8亿人次申领消费品以旧换 ...

Group 1: Insurance Asset Management Survey Results - The China Insurance Asset Management Association released the investor confidence survey results for the second half of 2025, covering macro environment, market judgment, allocation plans, and return expectations with participation from 122 insurance institutions [1] - Stocks are the preferred investment asset for insurance institutions in the second half of 2025, followed by bonds and securities investment funds, with most institutions expecting asset allocation ratios to remain consistent with early 2025 [1] - A majority of insurance institutions hold a neutral to optimistic view on the bond market, anticipating 10-year government bond yields to range between 1.4% and 1.6%, and high-grade credit bond yields between 1.5% and 2.0% [1] Group 2: A-share Market Outlook - Most insurance institutions are optimistic about the A-share market for the second half of 2025, predicting the Shanghai Composite Index to likely remain between 3200 and 3800 points [2] - Insurance institutions favor stocks related to the CSI 300 index, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, computing, telecommunications, and national defense [2] - Key investment areas include artificial intelligence, dividend assets, new productivity, high dividend yields, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with corporate earnings growth seen as a major factor influencing the A-share market [2]

据了解，本次调查覆盖宏观环境、市场判断、配置计划和收益预期四个方面，共有122家保险机构参与，包括36家保险资产管理机构和86家保险公司。 在宏观政策层面，多数保险机构预期下半年货币政策将适度宽松，重点关注适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，以及与财政政策的协调配合，充实完善政策工 具箱；财政政策预期将更加积极，整体偏向扩张，希望能够扩大内需、提振消费，或增加发行超长期特别国债。 A股市场方面，多数保险机构对下半年A股市场持较乐观态度，预计上证综指大概率维持在3200点至3800点之间。下半年，保险机构更为看好沪深300相关股 票，看好医药生物、电子、银行、计算机、通信和国防军工等行业，关注人工智能、红利资产、新质生产力、高分红高股息和创新医药等投资领域，认为企 业盈利增速是影响下半年A股市场的主要因素。 对于下半年债券市场，多数保险机构持中性偏乐观态度。预计10年期国债收益率将在1.4%到1.6%区间，中高等级信用债收益率在1.5%到2.0%区间。下半年 看好超长期特别国债、银行永续债、可转债以及10年期以上信用债，认为经济基本面、货币政策宽松力度和市场流动性将是影响下半年债券市场的主要因 素。（闻辉） 【环球网 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance asset management industry in China is optimistic about the macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2025, with a focus on key areas such as exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Expectations - Most insurance institutions expect stable economic growth in the second half of 2025, with an emphasis on monitoring exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [2]. - The monetary policy is anticipated to be moderately accommodative, with expectations for timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity [2]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive and expansionary, aiming to boost domestic demand and consumption, potentially through the issuance of ultra-long special bonds [2]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Preferences - In terms of asset allocation, insurance institutions prefer stocks as their primary investment asset, followed by bonds and securities investment funds [5]. - Most institutions expect their asset allocation ratios to remain consistent with early 2025, with some considering slight increases in stock and bond investments [5]. - The bond market outlook is moderately optimistic, with a focus on ultra-long special bonds, perpetual bonds, convertible bonds, and credit bonds with maturities over 10 years [5]. Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - A majority of insurance institutions hold a positive outlook for the A-share market in the second half of 2025, with 52.78% of asset management institutions and 55.81% of insurance companies expressing optimism [5]. - Expectations for A-share market trends indicate a belief in a fluctuating upward trajectory, with 52.78% of asset management institutions and 59.30% of insurance companies anticipating this movement [5]. - Regarding A-share valuations, 69.44% of asset management institutions and 66.28% of insurance companies consider current valuations to be reasonable, while 25% and 25.58% respectively view them as low [6]. Group 4: Investment Focus Areas - Insurance institutions are particularly interested in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, computing, telecommunications, and national defense [6]. - There is a focus on investment themes including artificial intelligence, dividend assets, new productivity, high dividend yields, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with corporate earnings growth seen as a key factor influencing the A-share market [6]. Group 5: Risk Considerations - The primary risks identified by insurance asset management institutions and insurance companies for the second half of 2025 include asset scarcity, yield pressure, interest rate declines, and asset-liability mismatches [10]. Group 6: Offshore Investment Preferences - Hong Kong stocks are favored for investment in the second half of 2025, with 40% of insurance institutions also showing interest in bond and gold investments [11].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance asset management industry in China is optimistic about the macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2025, with a focus on key areas such as exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [2][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Expectations - Most insurance institutions expect stable economic growth in the second half of 2025, with an emphasis on monitoring exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [2]. - The monetary policy is anticipated to be moderately accommodative, with expectations for timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity [2]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, leaning towards expansion to boost domestic demand and consumption, potentially through the issuance of long-term special government bonds [2]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Preferences - In terms of asset allocation, insurance institutions prefer stocks as their primary investment asset, followed by bonds and securities investment funds [5]. - Most institutions expect their asset allocation ratios to remain consistent with early 2025, with some considering slight increases in stock and bond investments [5]. - The bond market outlook is moderately optimistic, with a focus on long-term special government bonds, perpetual bonds, convertible bonds, and credit bonds with maturities over 10 years [5]. Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - A majority of insurance institutions hold a positive outlook for the A-share market in the second half of 2025, with 52.78% of asset management institutions and 55.81% of insurance companies expressing optimism [5]. - Expectations for the A-share market include a trend of oscillating upward, with 52.78% of asset management institutions and 59.30% of insurance companies predicting this movement [5]. - Regarding A-share valuations, 69.44% of asset management institutions and 66.28% of insurance companies believe current valuations are reasonable, while 25% of asset management institutions and 25.58% of insurance companies view them as low [5]. Group 4: Sector Preferences - Insurance institutions favor stocks related to the CSI 300 and STAR Market 50, with a positive outlook on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, computing, telecommunications, and national defense [6]. - Investment areas of interest include artificial intelligence, dividend assets, new productivity, high dividend yields, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with corporate earnings growth seen as a key factor influencing the A-share market [6]. Group 5: Investment Risks and Preferences - Key risks identified by insurance institutions for the second half of 2025 include asset scarcity, yield pressure, interest rate declines, and asset-liability mismatches [10]. - Offshore investment preferences indicate a favorable view towards Hong Kong stocks, with 40% of insurance institutions also optimistic about bond and gold investments [10].

政策面上，国家刚启动第三批830亿超长期特别国债，重点投向新能源和基建，这对新能源车、智能电网是实打实的利好。央行也在释放流动性，居民储 蓄转移加上两融余额突破2万亿，增量资金入场的趋势没变。不过技术面得提个醒：中证2000指数已经出现三次顶背离，短线调整压力不小，但中长期向 上的趋势还在。 最后聊聊策略。中长线投资者可以关注两类机会：一是政策支持的硬科技，比如新能源车、半导体，回调就是上车机会，尤其是那些有核心技术的龙 头；二是防御性板块，白酒和公用事业既能抗跌又有分红，适合风险偏好低的朋友。短线操作的话，盯着算力大会、央行降息这些催化剂，比如中兴通 讯昨天成交164亿创纪录，带动国产算力板块走强，这种资金扎堆的地方可能有短期机会。 但有一点得警惕：如果鲍威尔今晚释放鹰派信号，全球市场可能又得抖三抖。不过换个角度想，美股连跌五天后，市场已经提前消化了部分风险，反而 给A股留出了独立空间。记住，真正的机会往往藏在别人恐慌的时候，而不是人声鼎沸的顶点。咱们要做的，就是握紧优质筹码，耐心等待市场风格轮 动。 各位朋友早上好！我是帮主郑重。今天全球市场都在等一个人——美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话。但就在刚刚，三位美联储官 ...

Revenue Insights - In July, general public budget revenue reached 2.03 trillion, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, the first positive growth since the beginning of the year[3] - Monthly revenue growth rebounded significantly by 3.0 percentage points to a new high of 2.6%[3] - Tax revenue increased by 4.0 percentage points to 5.0%, the highest monthly figure since December of the previous year[3] Tax Contributions - The contribution of stamp duty saw a notable improvement, significantly influenced by favorable capital market performance in July[3] - Non-tax revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12.9%, exacerbating the overall revenue growth pressure[3] - Value-added tax contribution fell by 0.1 percentage points, highlighting ongoing domestic demand weakness and low inflation impact on corporate revenues[3] Fiscal Expenditure and Gaps - Fiscal expenditure in July rose by 2.7 percentage points to 3.0%, with most major expenditure areas showing varying degrees of increase[12] - The budget revenue-expenditure gap narrowed slightly to 2.49 trillion, but remains substantial, necessitating continued government bond financing[12] - Cumulative fiscal deficit from January to July expanded by 1.83 trillion, with government debt financing reaching 67.1% of the annual plan, significantly higher than the previous two years[26] Real Estate and Land Revenue - Government fund budget revenue fell sharply by 11.9% year-on-year to 8.9%, primarily due to a 14.7% drop in land transfer revenue[18] - The contribution of land transfer revenue to government fund budget revenue decreased by 11.1 percentage points to 5.3%[18] - The real estate market remains unstable, with significant imbalances in housing price-to-income ratios in major cities, affecting land market activity[18] Future Outlook - If domestic and external demand continues to decline, there is a pressing need for the central government to adopt a more aggressive fiscal expansion strategy[26] - The potential impact of new tariffs from the U.S. on exports necessitates ongoing monitoring of economic indicators[26] - The overall economic environment suggests that substantial improvements in fiscal revenue are unlikely in the coming months[3]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 19, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 580.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market maintained a slight tightening trend, with the overnight repo weighted average rate initially exceeding 1.50% but later falling back to around 1.47% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.36% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.67%, showing little change from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined [9] - Government bond futures closed collectively higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.23%, the 10-year by 0.03%, the 5-year by 0.07%, and the 2-year by 0.03% [13] Group 5: Fiscal Data - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1,358.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while tax revenue was 1,109.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% [14] - Non-tax revenue increased by 2% to 249.06 billion yuan, with stamp duty revenue rising by 20.7% to 25.59 billion yuan, and securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 62.5% to 9.36 billion yuan [14] Group 6: Local Government Bonds - Guangdong Province plans to issue offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau, with an expected issuance scale of 2.5 billion yuan [14] Group 7: Credit Ratings - S&P Global Ratings confirmed the U.S. sovereign credit rating at "AA+/A-1+" with a stable outlook, projecting that the net general government debt will approach 100% of GDP [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the overall stability of fiscal operations in the first half of the year, with a focus on proactive fiscal policies and macroeconomic measures that support economic recovery [1][2][3] Group 2 - National general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 3.4%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the first quarter [1][2] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 2.4%, but expenditure surged by 30%, reflecting a strong fiscal response [1][2] - Economic growth reached 5.3% in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of around 5% [1][2] Group 3 - Fiscal policy has shown new highlights such as structural optimization, increased intensity, strong guarantees, and risk mitigation [2][3] - Major tax categories have maintained stable growth, with tax revenue increasing since April, while non-tax revenue has seen a decline [2][3] - Fiscal expenditure has been robust, with new special bond issuance rising by 45% and central budget investments exceeding 90% [2][3] Group 4 - Key areas such as social security, science and technology, education, and health have seen significant increases in spending, with growth rates of 9.2%, 9.1%, 5.9%, and 4.3% respectively [2][3] - The issuance of new replacement bonds reached 3.8 trillion yuan, with an average interest cost reduction of over 2.5 percentage points, alleviating fiscal risks [2][3] Group 5 - Despite the positive aspects, challenges remain, including weak general public budget revenue due to low prices, real estate adjustments, and limited space for revitalizing state assets [3][4] - The fiscal policy must remain proactive and flexible, with a focus on enhancing consumer demand and supporting key sectors [4][5] - Future strategies include strengthening fiscal resource coordination, utilizing special bonds, and promoting effective investment in traditional and emerging industries [4][5]