相较去年，今年超长期特别国债发行规模加大，发行节奏加快，彰显其支持"两重""两新"的关键作用。 从规模看，今年超长期特别国债发行规模达1.3万亿元，比去年增加3000亿元。从节奏看，今年超长期 特别国债首发时间比去年提前约一个月，发行完毕时间也相应提前，推动资金尽早落地见效。 中诚信国际研究院院长袁海霞表示，今年发行1.3万亿元超长期特别国债是财政政策更加积极的重要体 现，或拉动2025年GDP增长1.7个至1.9个百分点，为实现经济增速目标提供重要支撑，也为重点领域和 长期项目建设提供了稳定资金来源。 白彦锋认为，四季度国债发行筹集的资金将用于更好支持实施"十五五"规划等国民经济发展中长期安 排。同时，四季度的国债发行会更加关注市场流动性走向，加强与货币政策之间的协调配合。 当前，国债发行进入密集期。11月24日，财政部招标发行970亿元记账式附息国债和600亿元记账式贴现 国债。11月26日，还有2只短期国债将发行。 专家表示，国债密集发行是积极财政政策持续发力的重要体现。后续积极财政政策取向料延续，应用好 用足特别国债、专项债等工具，加强国债资金监管考核，确保政策效能充分释放，护航稳增长。 发行节奏加快 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on promoting stable growth, improving people's livelihoods, and managing risks under the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a projected narrow fiscal deficit rate exceeding 4% and new local special bonds around 4.6 trillion yuan [1][5][43]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The core feature of China's fiscal policy in 2025 is a shift towards a "people-oriented" expenditure structure, which is reflected in the resilience of consumption and the decline in infrastructure investment since July [1][5]. - On the revenue side, there is a weak recovery in the two accounts, with tight constraints still present. The income from individual income tax and securities transactions has improved, while land transfer income has seen a narrowing decline [5][11]. - On the expenditure side, there is a moderate expansion in total fiscal spending, with a structural shift towards social welfare. The central government's financial support is increasing, but the alignment of financial resources and responsibilities still needs optimization [1][11][15]. Group 2: Key Tasks for 2026 - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on three key tasks: promoting the synergy between social welfare and consumption incentives, addressing the slowdown in external demand, and resolving funding constraints for infrastructure investment [1][21][22]. - Policies such as trade-in programs and childbirth subsidies are expected to continue and be enhanced, with a focus on service consumption, projecting a retail sales growth rate of around 4.5% [2][25]. Group 3: Infrastructure Investment and Debt Management - For infrastructure investment and debt management, it is essential to clarify the scale and path of debt management funding, with an estimated need for around 3 trillion yuan in special bonds for debt management and clearing overdue accounts in 2026 [3][29]. - The pressure of interest payments after debt replacement is expected to be manageable due to a low-interest environment, which will help offset the visible interest payment pressure [3][37]. - The growth rate of infrastructure investment is projected to be around 3.5% in 2026, influenced by the constraints of debt management and the pursuit of effective investment [3][41]. Group 4: Fiscal Data Projections for 2026 - The growth rate of broad fiscal spending is expected to be around 4.6%, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate still needing to exceed 4%, and new local special bonds projected at approximately 4.6 trillion yuan [5][43][49]. - The general public budget revenue growth rate is estimated at about 1%, while government fund revenue is expected to decline by around 5% [43][46].

在财政收入回暖、收入结构优化以及政府债券发行的支撑下，财政支出保持较高强度，重点领域得 到较好保障，更多投向民生领域，并"投资于人"。今年前9个月，作为3项典型的民生支出，社会保障和 就业支出、教育支出、卫生健康支出的增速明显高出平均支出增速，且增幅均为近3年同期最高水平。 特别是惠民生、促消费是当前财政政策的重点和主要发力方向，如消费品以旧换新政策继续优化、个人 消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策持续推出，育儿补贴、免费学前教育等民生政策逐步推行等。 与此同时，受益于超长期特别国债和专项债券加快发行，今年前9个月政府性基金预算支出同比大幅增 长，主要投向重大项目建设和化解债务等，更有力扩大了有效投资和缓释了重点领域风险。 也要看到，当前广义财政收支增速有所放缓，未来仍需持续加力保障支出。从一般公共预算支出和 政府性基金支出合计看，广义财政支出同比增速放缓至9月份的2.3%，剔除政府债券支出后，广义财政 支出增长回落更大。今年更加积极的财政政策前置发力，前三季度政府债净发行同比多增4.28万亿元。 这就造成目前的财政支出强度主要依赖财政收入增长及债券发行支撑，如果后续几个月财政收入叠加政 府债供给一旦回落， ...

要把"两重"建设放在"十五五"全局中谋划和推进——11月14日召开的国务院常务会议研究深入实施"两 重"建设有关工作，并作出了一系列部署。专家分析，今年以来，"两重"建设加快推进，重点领域基础 设施投资较快增长。持续高质量推进"两重"建设，实施一批重大标志性工程，将有助于扩大有效投资， 推动经济向上向好。 有力补短板强弱项 "两重"建设，即国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设。 据国家发展改革委介绍，"两重"建设重点投向科技自立自强、城乡融合发展、区域协调发展、人口高质 量发展、粮食安全、能源资源安全、生态安全等方面，有力补短板强弱项，推动国家重大战略顺利实 施、重点领域安全能力显著提升。 数据显示，从2024年起，中国发行超长期特别国债支持国家重大战略和重点领域安全能力建设，2024年 当年安排7000亿元超长期特别国债支持1465个重大项目建设，全年完成投资超过1.2万亿元。今年，"两 重"建设共安排8000亿元支持1459个项目，涉及长江流域生态修复、长江沿线重大交通基础设施、西部 陆海新通道、高标准农田、重大水利工程、城市地下管网等重点领域。 11月14日召开的国务院常务会议提出，要把"两重"建设放 ...

Policy Financial Tools Dynamics - New policy financial tools have been established with a total issuance of 500 billion yuan, focusing on key areas such as technological innovation, consumption expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][3] - The issuance breakdown includes 250 billion yuan from the China Development Bank, 150 billion yuan from the Agricultural Development Bank, and 100 billion yuan from the Export-Import Bank, supporting over 2,000 projects [3] Local Government Debt Issuance - From January to September 2025, local governments issued a total of 36,857 billion yuan in new special bonds, with Guangdong province alone exceeding 400 billion yuan [6][7] - The remaining quota for new special bonds nationwide is less than 1 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 83.8% against the planned 4.4 trillion yuan for the year [6][7] New Policies Released - The Central Committee has published recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need to expand effective investment and improve investment efficiency [13][14] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have released measures to boost service consumption and expand domestic demand, focusing on financial support [13][15] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued measures to strengthen the cultivation of innovative enterprises in the digital economy [13][16] Pilot Applications - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce have initiated pilot projects for new consumption formats and international consumption environment construction, targeting major cities for support [17][18] - Financial support for pilot cities includes subsidies of up to 4 billion yuan for super-large cities and 2 billion yuan for other cities, distributed in two batches based on performance evaluations [18][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of active fiscal policy as a foundation for national governance and economic development, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][4] - The Ministry of Finance has recognized the effectiveness of active fiscal policies in recent years, highlighting a 24% increase in general public budget expenditure, which is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][4] - Over 70% of national fiscal expenditure is directed towards people's livelihoods, with nearly 10 trillion yuan allocated for social welfare over the past five years [2][4] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to address structural and deep-seated economic issues, thereby boosting long-term development potential [3][4] - The focus will be on both supply-side and demand-side management, utilizing tax policies and government procurement to support the modern industrial system and stimulate consumption [3][6] - The Ministry aims to innovate fiscal tools, such as long-term special government bonds and fiscal subsidies, to improve the effectiveness of fiscal policies [3][4] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will prioritize expanding domestic demand, with strategies to boost consumption and effective investment, while also promoting a unified national market [6][7] - The Ministry of Finance will work on optimizing resource allocation and enhancing fiscal management, including zero-based budgeting reforms to improve fund utilization [9] - There will be a focus on balancing efficiency and equity in tax policies, as well as strengthening the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [9]

Core Insights - The central bank's October financial data indicates that M2 and social financing growth rates remain high, supporting economic recovery [1][4] - Loan growth is reasonable, with an optimized credit structure and low loan interest rates [1][4] Monetary Policy - Current monetary policy stance is supportive, creating a conducive environment for reasonable price recovery [1][10] - Future implementation of moderately loose monetary policy is necessary to maintain strong support for the real economy [1][10] Financial Data Highlights - As of October 2025, M2 balance reached 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [4][6] - Social financing stock was 437.72 trillion yuan, growing 8.5% year-on-year [4][5] - From January to October, the increment in social financing was 30.9 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's figure by 3.83 trillion yuan [4][5] - By the end of October, the balance of RMB loans was 270.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [4][8] Credit Structure - The structure of loans continues to improve, with inclusive small and micro loans growing by 11.6% and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increasing by 7.9% [8][9] - The growth of loans related to new economic drivers indicates a shift towards high-quality development [8][9] Government Bonds and Financing - Rapid issuance of government bonds and high demand for corporate bonds have significantly supported the growth of social financing [5] - The issuance of special long-term government bonds increased from 1 trillion yuan last year to 1.3 trillion yuan this year, reflecting fiscal support for economic growth [5] Price Trends - Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in October, indicating a 0.2% year-on-year increase, while core CPI rose by 1.2% [10] - Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1%, with the rate of decline narrowing for three consecutive months [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Finance released a report on the execution of fiscal policy for the first half of 2025, outlining six key areas of focus for future fiscal policy implementation [1]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The report emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, including actions to boost consumer spending through targeted financial subsidies for personal loans in key sectors [3]. - Support for employment and foreign trade is prioritized, with measures to promote job creation and assist businesses in maintaining operations and expanding markets [4]. - The report highlights the importance of fostering new growth drivers by advancing core technologies and promoting emerging industries, while ensuring equal treatment for all business entities [4]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - High-end consumption is showing signs of recovery, with notable improvements in sectors such as Macau gaming and luxury goods, driven by wealth effects and supply optimization [6]. - The luxury market is experiencing growth, with companies like LVMH and Hermès reporting improved sales in China, indicating a positive trend in consumer sentiment [6]. - New consumption sectors, particularly in the tea beverage industry, are expected to see significant profit growth, with leading brands benefiting from strong market positions [8]. Group 3: Policy Support for Consumption - The government is taking steps to enhance service consumption by relaxing entry barriers and removing unreasonable restrictions, which is expected to boost consumer willingness to spend [7]. - Recent policy changes in the duty-free sector aim to improve shopping experiences and increase consumer engagement in duty-free shopping [7].

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong vitality and resilience of China's economy in the first half of 2025, with significant achievements in high-quality development and proactive fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] Fiscal Performance - China's fiscal operations in the first half of 2025 were generally stable, with good budget execution. The central government allocated 300 billion yuan for long-term special bonds to support the consumption of old goods, doubling the funding compared to 2024 [2] - A total of 1,620 billion yuan of these special bonds has been pre-allocated, driving sales exceeding 16 trillion yuan and contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in retail sales of consumer goods, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than the full year of 2024 [2] - The central government issued 5,550 billion yuan in special bonds in the first half of 2025, with a new special bond limit of 4.4 trillion yuan fully allocated to local governments [2] Support for Innovation and Employment - The central budget for basic research increased by 12.1% compared to the previous year, with 6 billion yuan allocated to support local technological development [3] - Over 2,200 small and medium-sized enterprises in technology innovation received approximately 90 billion yuan in loans through a special guarantee plan [3] - Employment support funds of 66.74 billion yuan were allocated to assist local implementation of social insurance and vocational training subsidies [3] Future Fiscal Policy Directions - Future fiscal policies will focus on six areas: effectively utilizing proactive fiscal policies, supporting employment and foreign trade, fostering new development momentum, improving living standards, preventing risks in key areas, and enhancing fiscal governance [3] - The Ministry of Finance aims to ensure efficient budget execution and improve the effectiveness of fund usage while promoting consumption and supporting key sectors [4] Employment and Trade Stability - The Ministry of Finance plans to intensify employment stabilization policies, support public employment services, vocational training, and job retention efforts [4] - There will be a focus on helping enterprises stabilize orders, transition to domestic sales, and expand markets, addressing practical challenges faced by businesses [4]

Domestic Macro Policy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, aiming for GDP per capita to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035[2][9]. - The plan outlines that economic and social development should maintain an appropriate speed during the "15th Five-Year" period, with a focus on enhancing living standards and promoting consumption[9][10]. - Infrastructure policies include promoting the application of "AI + healthcare" and accelerating the cultivation of new application scenarios[3][11]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The central bank aims to narrow the short-term interest rate corridor and enhance the role of policy interest rates, with expectations of diverse monetary mechanisms by 2026[3][14]. - Fiscal policy will focus on optimizing expenditure structures and increasing the central government's financial contribution, with a goal to strengthen financial support for major strategic tasks and basic livelihood[3][16][17]. Real Estate and Trade Policies - Recent real estate policies aim to promote high-quality development, optimize the supply of affordable housing, and reform financing and sales systems[4][18]. - In trade, significant progress was made in US-China economic talks, with the US agreeing to suspend a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a 24% tariff for one year[4][22][23]. International Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with internal divisions on future rate decisions, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan maintained their rates[4][25]. - The US government remains in a state of partial shutdown, affecting economic data availability and future monetary policy decisions[4][25]. Risk Factors - There is a risk of continued divergence in domestic and international monetary policies, with concerns that domestic policy execution may fall short of expectations[5][29].