事件：3 月 5 日，十四届全国人大四次会议在北京召开，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告。 点评：政策总基调坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应；经济增长目标符合预期。报告提出要坚持 稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。政 策总基调延续务实稳健。报告提出今年发展预期经济增长目标是 4.5%－5%，在实际工作中努力争取更好结果。报告提到预 期目标主要考虑是开局之年为调结构、防风险、促改革留出空间，为后期更好发展打牢基础。我们在此前报告中测算，2035 年实现人均 GDP 较 2020 年翻一番，意味着在"十五五"、"十六五"实际 GDP 年均增速在 4.2%左右。当前预期目标，与 2035 年远景目标总体衔接，也体现了政策制定的稳健务实且具有延续性。 宏观政策方面，财政政策保持力度，注重优化结构。今年赤字率拟按 4%左右安排，与上年相同，赤字规模 5.89 万亿元、比 上年增加 2300 亿元。拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3 万亿元，持续支持"两重"建设、"两新"工作等。拟发行特别国债 3000 亿元，支持国有大型商业银行补充资本 ...

2026 年 03 月 06 日 务实筑基，向新图强 宏观研究团队 ——2026 年政府工作报告学习 shenmeichen@kysec.cn 何宁（分析师） 沈美辰（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524110002 事件：3 月 5 日，李强总理在人大会议上作《政府工作报告》（简称《报告》）。 形势判断：我国经济韧性强，内外部不确定性加深 2025 年作为"十四五"收官之年，我国经济展现出较强韧性，向新向优发展。 但当下仍面临不少内外部的挑战，外部地缘政治风险上升、世界经济动能疲弱、 多边主义、自由贸易受到冲击；内部新旧动能转换任务艰巨、供强需弱、部分企 业和群众面临困难、地方财政矛盾、房地产调整等。 目标衔接长远，展现提质增效的内涵要求 1、4.5%-5%的区间目标是留空间、衔接远期的考虑。一方面，要"为调结构、 防风险、促改革留出空间"。2026 年重视提质增效，既是跟上国际科技发展趋势， 又是应对接下来可能更激烈的科技、关键矿产博弈的必然准备。另一方面，同 2035 年远景目标衔接。《四中全会辅导百问》测算实现 2035 年目标需 ...

2026 年 3 月 6 日 总量研究 积极谋势，务实奋进 ——2026 年政府工作报告精神学习 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：王佳雯 执业证书编号：S0930524010001 021-52523870 wangjiawen@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 分析师：周可 执业证书编号：S0930524120001 021-52523677 zhouke@ebscn.com 相关研报 充分挖掘经济潜能，苦练内功应对挑战—— 2025 年中央经济工作会议精神学习 （2025-12-12） 积极有为，实现"十五五"良好开局—— 2025 年 12 月政治局会议精神学习（2025- 12-09） "十五五"高水平对外开放的战略升级—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告四（2025- 11-19） 理解"十五五"规划的三个定量指标—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告三（2025- 10-29） 坚持高质量发展，续写 ...

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes high-quality development as the primary task for 2026, outlining clear economic goals and policies to balance growth, employment, and risk prevention [1][3]. Economic Growth Target - The main expected economic growth target for this year is set at 4.5% to 5%, with an emphasis on flexibility and responsiveness to international economic changes [3][4]. - This target aligns with China's long-term growth potential and aims to facilitate structural transformation and reform [3][4][5]. Policy Framework - The report maintains a "steady progress" approach in fiscal and monetary policies, with a fiscal deficit rate of 4% and a continuation of "moderately loose" monetary policy [6][7]. - The focus is on fostering new growth drivers, talent development, and green transformation while ensuring stability in the face of global challenges [6][7]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The report highlights the importance of boosting consumption and integrating it with supply-side structural reforms, aiming to leverage China's vast market [8][9]. - Specific measures include a plan to increase residents' income, support for consumption through special bonds, and significant investments in infrastructure [8][9][10]. Technological Innovation and Industry Integration - The report outlines ten key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the need for technological self-reliance and innovation to support high-quality development [12][13]. - There is a focus on enhancing the integration of technology and industry, with significant funding allocated for major technological upgrades and the development of new industries [12][13][14]. Financial Service System Adaptation - The report calls for a financial service system that aligns with the development of new quality productivity, emphasizing the need for long-term capital to support innovation [15][16]. - It highlights the importance of improving the capital market's role in resource allocation and protecting investors while promoting a balance between financing and investment functions [17][18].

2026.03. 05 本文字数：2691，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 在今年的政府工作报告中，扩大内需仍被置于重要位置，"消费"被高频提及。在政策部署层面，报告 明确，设立1000亿元财政金融协同促内需专项资金。 去年以来，财政金融协同扩内需的政策导向更加明确，相关制度举措进一步完善。多位受访人士表 示，今年政府工作报告明确新设立千亿规模的专项资金，一方面有助于促消费、扩内需金融政策更 好、更快地落地，为消费贷、经营贷贴息等政策优化和延续衔接提供保障；另一方面，专项资金也将 起到分担金融机构风险、优化信贷结构、拓展业务范围等作用。 总体来看，专项资金的设立有助于以市场化的方式优化金融资源配置，起到撬动作用。不过，也有业 内人士提示，政策落地过程中应注意结合前期经验，以有效监管确保资金专款专用且用在"刀刃"上， 防范金融机构或借款人违规套利、过度"内卷"等乱象。 促消费做"乘法"又有新安排 政府工作报告指出，促进商品消费扩容升级，安排超长期特别国债2500亿元支持消费品以旧换新， 优化政策实施机制。设立1000亿元财政金融协同促内需专项资金，组合运用贷款贴息、融资担保、 风险补偿等方式，支持 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2026 年 03 月 05 日 证券研究报告•宏观简评报告 会议点评 稳中应变，开新局、留空间 ——2026 年政府工作报告点评 点评 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：叶凡 执业证号：S1250520060001 电话：010-57631106 邮箱：yefan@swsc.com.cn 分析师：刘彦宏 执业证号：S1250523030002 电话：010-55758502 邮箱：liuyanhong@swsc.com.cn 联系人：徐小然 邮箱：xuxr@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 扩内需提质增效，政策工具更趋多元化。"内需主导"包括两层含义：消费方 面，立足于建设"强大国内市场"，持续优化"两新"政策实施，深入推进提 振消费专项行动。2026 年 除安排超长期特别国债 2500亿元支持消费品以旧换 新外，还新设 1000 亿元财政金融协同促内需专项资金，同时扩大个人消费贷 款与服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策覆盖。政策协同性持续增强、工具更加多元， 投向更加精准 。2025 年 12月，首批 625亿元超长期特 ...

政府工作报告在介绍2026年政府工作任务时提出，促进商品消费扩容升级，安排超长期特别国 债2500亿元支持消费品以旧换新，优化政策实施机制。设立1000亿元财政金融协同促内需专 项资金，组合运用贷款贴息、融资担保、风险补偿等方式，支持扩大内需。 更多相关内容 十四届全国人大四次会议5日上午在人民大会堂开幕，习近平等党和国家领导人出席开幕会， 国务院总理李强向大会作政府工作报告。 来源丨央视新闻 编辑丨刘雪莹 SFC 政府工作报告：继续实施更加积极的财政政策。今年赤字率拟按4%左右安排，赤字规模5.89 万亿元、比上年增加2300亿元。拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，持续支持"两重"建设、"两 新"工作等。 ...

● 本报记者 熊彦莎 近期，包括国债和地方政府发行的新增专项债在内的政府债券发行提速。Wind和企业预警通数据显 示，2026年已发行的国债和新增专项债总规模同比分别提升12%和60%。 专家认为，2026年一季度政府债券发行节奏提前，体现财政前置发力的趋势，有利于实现稳增长、稳投 资、稳预期的政策目标。为更好发挥国债定价功能，应完善国债期限结构，优化国债买卖机制，发挥好 调节货币供应量的作用。 发行节奏前置 2月24日为节后首个工作日，财政部当日发行10年期和3年期记账式附息国债，面值总额分别为1350亿元 和1300亿元。2月25日，财政部发行1200亿元的5年期记账式附息国债和400亿元的记账式贴现国债。 开年国债发行靠前发力。Wind数据显示，截至2月26日，2026年已发行的国债总规模达到22390亿元， 较2025年同期的19960.6亿元提升12%。 "近期国债发行量拉升，体现出财政前置发力，以更好稳增长。实现一季度经济平稳开局，需加快形成 实物工作量。同时，要满足到期规模较高带来的再融资需求，并为后续的特别国债发行腾挪空间。"西 南财经大学财政税务学院教授刘蓉告诉中国证券报记者。 此外，对于超 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive macroeconomic policy to support economic growth, with the highest fiscal deficit levels in recent years and a significant increase in government bond issuance to boost key sector spending [1][2]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2025 will feature a deficit rate set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year [2]. - The new government debt scale will reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [2]. - National general public budget expenditure is projected to be 287.395 billion yuan, a 1% increase from 2024, while government fund budget expenditure will be 1.129 trillion yuan, up 11.3% [2]. Government Bonds - Government bonds will play a crucial role in expanding investment and addressing shortfalls, with expenditures on special bonds reaching 619 billion yuan, a 37.6% increase from 2024 [3]. - The fiscal policy will utilize a combination of tools, including increasing the fiscal deficit rate and issuing long-term special bonds to support macroeconomic stability and high-quality development [3]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will see a rapid growth in the total financial volume, with M2 growth significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth [3]. - By the end of 2025, the RMB loan balance is expected to reach 272 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of around 7% after adjusting for local debt impacts [3]. - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a package of financial support measures to solidify the economic recovery [2][3]. Support for Domestic Demand - The combination of fiscal and monetary policies aims to boost investment, enhance consumption, and improve livelihoods, with 1.3 trillion yuan allocated for special long-term bonds to support key projects [4]. - The "old-for-new" consumption program is expected to generate sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [4]. Financial Support for Consumption - By the end of 2025, financial institutions have reported applications for 118.4 billion yuan in re-loans to support consumption and elderly care [5]. - Consumer loans, excluding personal housing loans, are projected to reach 21.2 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025 [5]. Policy Integration - In early 2026, the continued issuance of long-term special bonds will support consumption and equipment upgrades, injecting strong momentum into the economy [6]. - The macroeconomic policies will focus on promoting domestic demand through coordinated fiscal and monetary measures [8]. Future Outlook - The central economic work conference has confirmed the continuation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, emphasizing precision and effectiveness in policy implementation [7]. - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policies and stimulate domestic demand [8].

Core Viewpoint - The IMF has adjusted the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous prediction, with China remaining a key driver of global economic growth [2][10]. Economic Outlook - KPMG's report anticipates that under current policy support, China's domestic economic growth will remain stable in 2026, with an expected recovery in demand as macro policies are effectively implemented [2][10]. - The report indicates that China's economy is projected to reach 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with a real GDP growth of 5.0%, achieving the target growth rate set at the beginning of the year [3][11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The economy is experiencing structural disparities in supply and demand, with traditional industries facing challenges due to intense competition and slow capacity clearance, leading to weak demand and supply expansion [3][11]. - The report highlights the need for coordinated efforts from both demand and supply sides, as well as improvements in institutional mechanisms and external environments to promote sustained recovery in domestic demand [4][12]. Investment and Consumption - Investment in key areas and major projects needs to be supported to stabilize effective investment, while enhancing social welfare investments to stimulate consumer potential [4][12]. - The retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7% in 2025, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a shift towards quality and experiential consumption [4][13]. Policy Support and Financial Tools - Continuous policy support is essential to consolidate the recovery foundation and stimulate growth, including innovative use of financial tools such as special government bonds and policy financing [5][15]. - The establishment of the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund aims to attract diverse capital to support the development of strategic emerging industries [6][15]. Macroeconomic Management - Fiscal policy should play a more prominent role in counter-cyclical adjustments, focusing on effectively expanding domestic demand and improving policy implementation effectiveness [7][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing the business environment and supporting enterprises in expanding international markets to create a virtuous cycle of income growth and domestic demand expansion [7][16].