文/ 广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家 连平 20 26年1月31日，经过反复权衡后，特朗普宣布在凯文・沃什、国家经济 委员会主任凯文・哈塞特、贝莱德集团高管里克・里德以及美联储理事克 里斯托弗・沃勒等候选人中，将最终提名凯文・沃什担任下一任美联储主 席。从国际金融市场的反应来看，似乎作出了过度解读，如强调沃什曾经 的鹰派立场，忽略了特朗普对于这一关键职位选人的忠诚度要求；而特朗 普本人也对沃什2026年在美联储体系中实际发挥的作用期盼过高，忘记 了 美 联 储 主 席 一 旦 就 职 ， 其 制 度 角 色 往 往 会 压 倒 个 人 倾 向 。 美 联 储 " 换 帅"的结果，最终恐怕很难如特朗普所愿。 特朗普为何选择沃什？ 在四位人选中，哈塞特对特朗普亦步亦趋、唯命是从，此前一度呼声较高，但市场将其视为特朗普的"傀儡"，公信力严重不足；里德缺乏美联储管理经 验，且其华尔街背景容易引发"利益输送"质疑；沃勒的鹰派立场甚至超过鲍威尔，更让特朗普难以接受。只有沃什是相对最优解，特朗普称赞其知道"如 何用规则包装政治诉求""能精准契合自己意图"。 | 候选人 | 政策主张 | | 参议院通过概率 | 特朗普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman is fundamentally a result of a "triple balance" involving policy, political, and market considerations [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Balance - Warsh's proposal of "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts" meets the current U.S. government's urgent need for economic stimulus while also addressing inflation risks, thereby enhancing the credibility of the central bank [1][3]. - This approach aims to mitigate the risk of being labeled a "political puppet" by demonstrating a commitment to both economic growth and inflation control [3]. Group 2: Political Balance - Warsh's experience with the Federal Reserve, Wall Street background, and academic credentials make him a politically viable candidate, reducing the likelihood of resistance from the Democratic Party in a Republican-controlled Senate [2][3]. - His familial ties to Trump, particularly through his father-in-law, further enhance his trustworthiness in the eyes of the current administration [3][4]. Group 3: Market Balance - The White House seeks to balance "policy reform" with "market stability" to avoid market volatility caused by hasty policy changes [3]. - Warsh's advocacy for reducing the Fed's balance sheet and reforming monetary policy frameworks is seen as a way to provide "controlled easing" while reassuring markets about the Fed's independence [3]. Group 4: Historical Context - The article draws parallels between Warsh's potential tenure and that of Jerome Powell, who was also seen as a politically favorable choice but faced significant challenges once in office [6][9]. - The historical context suggests that while there may be an initial "honeymoon period" between Warsh and Trump, institutional roles will likely dominate personal inclinations over time [9]. Group 5: Future Monetary Policy - Warsh's approach to monetary policy diverges from traditional models, favoring a more discretionary and results-oriented decision-making process rather than relying heavily on predictive models [11]. - Despite his preferences, the collective decision-making structure of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may limit Warsh's ability to implement significant interest rate cuts without broader consensus [11][12]. Group 6: Political Implications - The upcoming midterm elections are a critical factor influencing the White House's decision to replace Powell with Warsh, as it allows the administration to position itself favorably in the eyes of voters [15]. - The article suggests that the immediate goal of the leadership change is to shift blame for economic challenges away from the administration and onto Powell [15].