2026年2月10日，美元兑瑞士法郎(USD/CHF)延续断崖式下跌，亚洲交易时段一度重挫近1%，最低触及 0.7660水平，创下2011年以来的15年历史新低。截至发稿，汇价徘徊在0.7665附近，市场情绪被避险资 金的单向涌入与美瑞货币政策的巨大背离彻底点燃。这一历史性低点不仅标志着瑞郎的极度强势，更折 射出全球资本在不确定性加剧背景下，对传统避险资产的疯狂追逐。 尽管当前空头气势如虹，但投资者仍需警惕短期的剧烈波动。本周即将发布的美国1月非农就业数据和 CPI数据，将成为短期博弈的焦点，任何超预期的表现都可能引发美元的短线反弹，带动汇价回抽上方 阻力位0.7750-0.7770区域。此外，瑞士央行虽乐见瑞郎走强，但若汇率过快升值严重威胁出口竞争力， 不排除其会通过口头干预甚至入市操作来平抑波动。 美元兑瑞郎的这波历史性下跌，是全球宏观逻辑对汇率市场的直接映射。对于交易者而言，当前市场情 绪极度偏向瑞郎，顺势而为的空头思路虽占主流，但也需时刻警惕超卖后的技术修复与基本面消息的突 变。在0.76关口面临考验的关键时刻，严守风控、关注支撑位的有效性，将是应对这场"瑞郎风暴"的关 键策略。 从技术面来看，美元兑 ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate at 3.6%, aligning with market expectations, while warning that Q3 inflation may exceed expectations, leading traders to reduce bets on rate cuts in the short term [1][3] - The RBA noted signs of recovery in private demand, sticky inflation in some sectors, and a stable labor market, deeming it appropriate to keep the cash rate unchanged [3][5] - Some economists have pushed their expectations for the RBA's fourth rate cut from this year to next year, citing concerns over rising price pressures amid a tight labor market [5][6] Group 2 - The RBA's decision comes after the Federal Reserve's first rate cut since December of the previous year, with market pricing indicating about two more cuts by the Fed by the end of the year [5] - The RBA's next rate cut is fully priced in for February next year, suggesting a divergence in monetary policy between Australia and the US [5] - Recent economic data has been described as "in line" or "stronger than" RBA expectations, with a private consumer survey indicating the strongest reading in six years [5][6] Group 3 - The RBA highlighted a strengthening real estate market, indicating that recent rate cuts are having a positive effect, with smoother access to credit for households and businesses [5][6] - Monthly inflation indicators showed that August inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month, reaching the upper end of the RBA's 2%-3% target range, raising concerns about broader inflation acceleration [5][6] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in August, indicating progress towards the RBA's dual objective of full employment [6]