【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 亚洲早盘，、瑞郎和日元等一些避险资产走强，受对美联储独立性的担忧提振。此前美国总统特朗普表 示，他将把莉莎-库克从美联储理事会中除名。特朗普在Truth Social上发布了一封信，信中宣布立即将 库克免职。StoneX的Matt Simpson称："特朗普刚刚炒掉了他的第一位美联储理事。"这位高级市场分析 师补充说："随着特朗普采取行动削弱美联储的独立性，美元正被抛售。"黄金上涨0.4%，至每盎司3， 379.38美元；美元兑瑞郎下跌0.4%，至0.8030瑞郎；美元兑日元下跌0.5%，至147.07日元。 ...

本文仅在今日头条发布，谢绝转载。 鲍威尔用"货币政策处于限制性区间"的学术措辞，实则为持续八个月的利率僵局撕开裂口。市场对降息 预期的强烈反应，让交易员迅速将9月降息概率推至91%，资本洪流瞬间涌入股票、加密货币等风险资 产。这种情绪背后，反映出美股市场对美联储政策的极度依赖，仿佛只要政策风吹草动，市场就会立刻 做出剧烈反应。最近一段时间，华尔街在硅谷银行事件后本应更加谨慎，但如今却再次陷入对降息的期 待中，似乎忘了2023年的教训。真正的经济稳定不能只靠政策刺激，而是需要实体经济的支撑。当前的 市场狂欢，更多是建立在政策预期之上，而非基本面的改善。这种模式一旦失去支撑，泡沫终将破裂。 当英特尔获得美国政府89亿美元注资的消息传出后，中国科技企业却在另一条赛道上展现出强劲的韧性 与创新能力。最近一段时间，蔚来汽车凭借全新车型的发布，股价一度飙升14%，引发市场关注；而特 斯拉也宣布将接入中国火山引擎大模型，进一步深化与中国科技企业的合作。这些动态背后，折射出中 国企业在核心技术领域的持续投入与突破。相比美方在金融调控上的频繁操作，中国企业更注重在关键 技术上的自主研发，这种差异在近年来的国际竞争中愈发明显。 ...

IN 7 Responsive Province of the last of 7 7 per land of the proposal of the production of the first of the first of the first of / 一、黄金ETF规模突破300亿元的驱动因素 1. 市场数据与资金流入 规模增长：截至2025年二季度末，国内黄金ETF及（9gm.0887HK.boats）联接基金规模达2603.37亿元，环比增长49.73%，远超300亿元门槛。其中，华 安易富黄金ETF以598.23亿元规模居首，博时黄金ETF及联接基金紧随其后。 资金流入：上半年黄金ETF净流入显著，多只基金规模翻倍。例如，嘉实上海金ETF发起式联接和嘉实上海金ETF发起式规模环比分别增长201.35%和 200.45%。 业绩表现：黄金基金上半年平均收益率23.01%，最高达24.14%，吸引投资者持续涌入。 2. 避险需求与市场情绪 地缘政治推动：全球地缘政治紧张（如俄乌冲突、中东局势）推高避险情绪，黄金ETF成为投资者对冲风险的首选工具。 轧空行情：大量ETF产品锁定黄金现货库存，形成轧空 ...

避险需求与投资选择 金价的火箭式蹿升，着实令人瞠目结舌。今早醒来，国际金价已然冲破3333美元/盎司的关口，国内金价也一路飙升至771.8元/克。面对如此疯狂的金价，是 该冷静观望，还是果断出手？ 投资金条：精打细算的明智之选 若论投资，金条无疑是更具性价比的选择。放眼四大行，工行金条价格为787元/克，建行为785元/克，中行则报783元/克。农行稍贵，为790元/克。尽管较 基础金价仍高出一二十元，但这部分溢价主要由加工费和手续费构成。相较于动辄溢价数百元的品牌金饰，金条在回收时的损失无疑要小得多。今日金条回 收价为761元/克，投资者可自行权衡其中的差价。 品牌金饰：溢价背后的价值考量 然而，步入金饰市场，价格却呈现出另一番景象。周大福、老凤祥等知名品牌，其黄金首饰价格已高达1002元/克，较基础金价高出200多元！这多出的费 用，实则是品牌溢价、精湛工艺费以及高昂的店面运营成本的综合体现。中国黄金等相对亲民的品牌，价格则为981元/克，两者间的差价足以购买一份精致 的小礼物。这笔差价是否值得，则取决于消费者对品牌价值的认可程度。 4-2-2-2-2 e 5.5.5.5 ter ust TO Or Q ...

Group 1 - Spot gold increased by 1.0% to $3348.65 per ounce, continuing to rise since 10:00 AM Beijing time [1] - COMEX gold futures also rose by 1.0%, reaching $3392.4 per ounce [1] - Ethereum saw a significant increase from around $4100 to nearly $4230, with an overall daily rise of 1.7% [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin experienced a short-term surge from approximately $112,400, with an overall daily increase, returning above $113,800 [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fell by about 2.2 basis points, hitting a new low below 4.2830% [1] - The US dollar against the Japanese yen declined nearly 0.5%, reaching a new low below 147 [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the **gold market** and its dynamics, particularly in relation to long-term price forecasts and demand trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Long-term Gold Price Forecast**: The long-term real gold price forecast has been raised to **$2800** from **$2200**, indicating nominal prices are expected to stabilize around **$3100** by **2030** when accounting for inflation [2][13] 2. **Production Costs and Supply Growth**: There are structurally higher production costs and limited mine supply growth anticipated. The industry is expected to favor organic growth projects and regional consolidation over major mergers and acquisitions [3] 3. **Investor Base Expansion**: Gold's relevance as a strategic asset is expected to grow, with an expanding investor base recognizing its value as a safe haven against macroeconomic and geopolitical risks [4][5] 4. **Physical Demand Trends**: Despite an **8%** decline in global consumer demand in the first half of the year, demand for gold bars and coins has more than doubled in Europe, and there is a **17%** year-over-year growth in the Asia-Pacific region, which accounts for approximately **67%** of global demand [6][23] 5. **Official Sector Purchases**: Official sector gold purchases are tracking around **800-850 tonnes** for the year, which is slower than expected but still higher than historical levels, providing strong market support [6] 6. **Market Sentiment**: Investors are generally bullish on gold in the long term, with many looking to buy on dips. The sentiment reflects confidence in gold's ability to hold value despite market corrections [9] 7. **Macroeconomic Influences**: Future movements in gold prices are likely to be influenced by macroeconomic data, particularly concerning inflation and growth in the US, as well as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [10] Additional Important Insights - **Summer Trading Conditions**: The market is currently experiencing summer trading conditions, which are expected to persist for a few weeks, allowing for consolidation [7] - **Speculative Positions**: Speculative positions in gold appear lean, while exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been steadily increasing their holdings, indicating potential for further investment [19] - **Valuation and Risk Considerations**: The document includes a risk statement highlighting various risks associated with multi-asset investing, including market, credit, and geopolitical risks [28] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the gold market, its price forecasts, demand trends, and investor sentiment.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a steady demand but is facing challenges due to high prices suppressing procurement and weak terminal orders [1][14] - The aluminum sector is experiencing a mild recovery with increased operating rates among downstream processing enterprises [2][15] - Gold maintains its appeal as a safe-haven asset despite a slight decrease in price, influenced by geopolitical events and rising U.S. debt [3][16] - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from supply tightening and policy changes, with prices showing an upward trend [4][36] - The antimony market is stabilizing with potential for price recovery due to improved export expectations and domestic production cuts [4][38] - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise as demand from the steel industry increases and supply remains tight [4][39] - Tin prices are supported by strong inventory levels and demand from sectors like AI and photovoltaics [4][40] Summary by Sections 1. Base and Precious Metals Market Overview - Copper prices decreased by 0.08% to $9,760.00 per ton on LME, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.73% to 79,100 yuan per ton [1][14] - Aluminum prices fell by 0.46% to $2,603.00 per ton on LME, with a slight increase in Shanghai aluminum [2][15] - Gold prices decreased by 0.36% to $3,381.70 per ounce, with increased holdings in SPDR Gold Trust [3][16] 2. Base and Precious Metals Fundamental Updates 2.1 Copper - Domestic copper inventory decreased to 125,600 tons, with a forecasted slight drop in operating rates due to weak demand [1][14] 2.2 Aluminum - Operating rates in the aluminum processing sector increased to 59.5%, indicating a mild recovery [2][15] 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset remains despite geopolitical tensions and rising U.S. debt levels [3][16] 3. Minor Metals and Rare Earth Market Overview - Rare earth prices are on the rise due to supply constraints and policy changes, with significant benefits expected for leading companies in the sector [4][36] - Antimony prices are stabilizing with potential for recovery driven by export expectations and domestic production cuts [4][38] - Molybdenum prices are anticipated to rise due to increased demand from the steel industry and low inventory levels [4][39] - Tin prices are supported by strong inventory levels and demand from sectors like AI and photovoltaics [4][40]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a state of tension, fluctuating between $3,330 and $3,370, as market participants await the outcome of the summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, which may impact geopolitical risks and gold demand [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight increase on Friday but overall declined by 1.85% for the week [1] - The upcoming summit is focused on the Ukraine ceasefire agreement, which could significantly influence gold prices [1] - Geopolitical uncertainty and a low interest rate environment typically boost investor demand for gold [1] Group 2: Short-term Outlook - The short-term focus for gold is on resistance levels between $3,350 and $3,358, while support levels are identified between $3,320 and $3,310 [4] - The recent price action indicates a false rebound, with the market not breaking above $3,370, suggesting that the downward trend remains intact [2] - The ultimate target for gold prices is projected to be between $3,000 and $2,950, with key levels at $3,245 and $3,150 to $3,120 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant surge in gold prices driven by potential aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicating serious economic challenges in the U.S. [3] Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - Following the announcement of a possible 50 basis point rate cut by U.S. Treasury Secretary, gold prices experienced volatility, with London gold reaching $3,366 per ounce and New York futures hitting $3,416 [3] - The previous day's trading saw spot gold surpassing $3,370, closing at $3,355.90, marking a 0.24% increase [3] - A sharp decline in U.S. employment data, with a loss of 258,000 jobs, and an increase in unemployment claims contributed to the gold price surge [3] Group 2: Global Economic Impact - The weakening U.S. dollar, with the dollar index dropping to 97.61, has further propelled gold prices, as a 1% decline in the dollar typically results in a $20 increase in gold prices [6] - Central banks globally are accumulating gold, with over 1,000 tons added since 2024, and China has been purchasing gold for nine consecutive months, reaching a reserve of 73.96 million ounces [6] Group 3: Domestic Market Trends - In the domestic market, gold prices have risen, with local retailers like Lao Feng Xiang and Shanghai Lao Miao increasing prices to 1,010 yuan and 1,007 yuan per gram, respectively [6] - The rapid price increase has led consumers to seek more cost-effective options, such as bank gold bars, which are significantly cheaper than retail prices [6] Group 4: Diverging Analyst Opinions - Analysts are divided on future gold price trends, with Goldman Sachs predicting a rise above $3,400, while Morgan Stanley suggests that rising U.S. stock prices may divert funds away from gold [8] - The gold recycling market is booming, with significant price differences between recycling stations and retail gold prices, leading to consumer dissatisfaction [8] Group 5: Broader Market Effects - The surge in gold prices has led to a shift in consumer behavior, with high-end clients moving towards diamond purchases and lower-income consumers opting for lower purity gold [10] - The contrasting performance of gold and silver is highlighted, with silver recycling prices significantly lower, causing regret among silver buyers [10]

Core Viewpoint - A seemingly technical tariff adjustment by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has triggered significant turmoil in the global gold market, highlighting the fragility of the gold supply chain and the impact of policy uncertainty on market confidence [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the tariff announcement, the premium of New York gold futures over London spot prices surged to $125 per ounce, reflecting market panic over potential supply chain disruptions [7]. - New York gold prices reached a historic high of $3534.10 per ounce, while London prices remained stable around $3396.04, indicating a significant price disparity [7]. - Historical data shows that when the COMEX futures premium exceeds 2%, it has previously led to strong price recoveries in the spot market within 1-3 weeks, as seen in April 2020 [7]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The White House intervened shortly after the market reaction, labeling the CBP's tariff decision as "misinformation," which indicates internal policy confusion and has led to a rapid decline in gold prices [9][10]. - The inconsistency between government agencies has heightened market uncertainty, raising questions about the reliability of U.S. policy [12][13]. Group 3: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities - Approximately 90% of industrial gold is refined in Switzerland, making it a critical hub in the global gold supply chain, which is now seen as overly concentrated and vulnerable to geopolitical risks [4][12]. - The recent events may prompt a reevaluation of the reliance on a single refining center, potentially leading to a more diversified supply network in the future [15]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - The turmoil has led to a shift in sentiment among investment institutions, with even traditionally bearish firms like Citigroup adjusting their gold price targets upward to $3500 per ounce [12]. - The current climate of policy uncertainty may enhance gold's status as a safe-haven asset, as investors seek stability amid fluctuating market conditions [12][13].