Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market is experiencing a complex pricing shift from "geopolitical risk" to "liquidity trading," with significant volatility in gold and silver prices observed in Q1 2026 [1][10]. Group 1: Price Volatility and Influencing Factors - As of March 31, 2026, gold prices opened at approximately $4,538 per ounce, while silver prices were around $69.35 per ounce, reflecting a notable decline from recent highs [1][11]. - Gold and silver futures have seen declines of approximately 13% and 24% respectively over the past month, indicating that safe-haven sentiment has not translated linearly into price increases due to a stronger dollar and rising interest rate expectations [1][11]. - A record outflow of $11 billion from commodity ETFs has been reported since March, with over $7 billion redeemed from gold ETFs and about $1.4 billion from silver ETFs [1][11]. Group 2: Liquidity Impact and Market Dynamics - The primary driver of recent price fluctuations in precious metals is liquidity impact, with speculative and leveraged funds rapidly exiting the market [2][13]. - The trading volume of gold ETFs surged threefold and silver ETFs increased ninefold in the first two months of 2026 compared to the average in 2025, highlighting the presence of crowded trades [2][14]. - Asian investors are observed to be selling gold and silver to meet liquidity needs, contributing to short-term price volatility [3][15]. Group 3: Long-term Support and Central Bank Purchases - Despite recent volatility, central bank purchases are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices, with a reported net purchase of 863 tons globally in 2025 [12][17]. - Emerging market central banks, particularly in Poland and China, are increasing their gold holdings as part of a de-dollarization trend, which is expected to underpin gold prices in the long run [12][18]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Price Predictions - For investors looking to enter the market, a buying range of $4,200 to $4,400 per ounce for gold is suggested, with resistance anticipated around $4,900 [12][21]. - The overall market is expected to exhibit more wave trading characteristics this year, with a target price for gold set at around $5,000 and trading expected to range between $4,500 and $5,500 [21].

Core Viewpoint - The dollar's status as a safe haven has led to a rally following the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28 [1] Group 1 - The conflict in Iran has influenced market dynamics, prompting investors to seek refuge in the dollar [1]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market's focus has shifted from "geopolitical conflict" to "dollar as a safe haven, inflationary pressures suppressing gold" due to the escalation of the US-Iran conflict[2] - The US dollar has gained strength as it is perceived to better accommodate global risk aversion, especially affecting non-US economies like Europe and Japan[2] - Gold prices have risen significantly since the beginning of the year, creating upward pressure on gold prices due to profit-taking[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US fiscal situation has temporarily improved, with concerns over government shutdowns diminishing, leading to reduced worries about dollar credit risk[2] - The US fiscal deficit for FY 2026 is projected to rise to 7%-8% of GDP, an increase of 25%-29% compared to FY 2025, due to military spending and tax refunds[29] - The 10-year US Treasury yield has been fluctuating around 4.4%-4.5%, indicating liquidity pressures in the economy[26] Group 3: Gold Price Outlook - Short-term gold prices are likely to remain weak due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflationary concerns, but medium to long-term prospects are more optimistic[3] - Historical patterns show that gold typically rises before geopolitical conflicts escalate, rather than during prolonged standoffs[4] - The relationship between gold and the dollar has shifted, with gold increasingly seen as a hedge against US credit risk rather than just a commodity[5]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market's focus has shifted from "geopolitical conflict" to "dollar as a safe haven, inflationary pressures suppressing gold" due to the escalation of the US-Iran conflict[2] - The US dollar has gained strength as it is perceived to better accommodate global risk aversion, especially affecting non-US economies like Europe and Japan[2] - Gold prices have risen significantly since the beginning of the year, creating upward pressure on gold prices due to profit-taking[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US fiscal situation has temporarily improved, with concerns over government shutdowns diminishing, leading to reduced worries about dollar credit risk[2] - The US fiscal deficit for FY 2026 is projected to rise to 7%-8% of GDP, an increase of 25%-29% compared to FY 2025, due to military spending and tax refunds[29] - The 10-year US Treasury yield has been fluctuating around 4.4%-4.5%, indicating liquidity pressures in the US economy[26] Group 3: Gold Price Outlook - Short-term gold prices are likely to remain weak due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflationary concerns, but medium to long-term prospects are more optimistic[3] - Historical patterns show that gold typically rises before geopolitical conflicts escalate, rather than during prolonged standoffs[4] - The relationship between gold and the dollar has shifted, with gold increasingly seen as a hedge against US credit risk rather than just a commodity[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a tactical high cash allocation, with the US dollar as the preferred hedging tool against geopolitical and global risks [1][2] Core Insights - Credit assets exhibit significant negative convexity, suggesting a reduction in credit exposure through credit default swaps (CDS) or shorting high-yield bond ETFs like HYG for linear hedging [1][2] - Right-tail risk hedging is recommended through 1-2 year long call options on indices like S&P and Nikkei, utilizing low volatility tools to mitigate time decay and roll-over risks [1][2] - High energy prices are weakening the current account surpluses of Asian energy-importing countries, necessitating foreign exchange hedging focused on the euro, offshore RMB, and the depreciation risk of Asian currencies [1][2] - Gold's recent rise is attributed to speculative behavior, and it has shown weakness under liquidation pressure; the Swiss franc is more suitable for hedging European-specific inflation or extreme risks [1][2] Summary by Sections Tactical Adjustments - The current environment is characterized by rising implied volatility and increased hedging costs, necessitating structural hedging in investment portfolios to address negative supply shocks [2][3] - Defensive adjustments have been made, maintaining a high cash allocation, with a focus on hedging both left-tail and right-tail risks [2][3] Credit Market Analysis - Credit spreads are viewed as a direct indicator of risk premium, with significant re-pricing occurring due to geopolitical tensions and concerns over private credit and AI disruptions [2][3] - The report emphasizes reducing government bond hedges and credit exposure, particularly through CDS or high-yield corporate bond ETFs [2][3] Interest Rate Outlook - The report suggests a relatively optimistic view on duration, as higher real rates and restrictive policy rates support a bullish stance on rates, especially in the context of potential economic growth impacts [4][5] - Long-term interest rate futures are expected to create downward space, particularly for 10-year and 5-year rates, as the market adjusts to ongoing inflation concerns [4][5] Currency and Commodity Insights - The report ranks different safe-haven assets, highlighting the US dollar as the primary hedging tool against geopolitical and global risks, while the yen and Swiss franc serve specific roles under different economic conditions [4][5] - High energy prices are expected to alter previous expectations for Asian currencies, with a focus on potential rebounds in commodity-exporting countries [5][6] Credit Market Risks - The credit market faces technical risks due to ongoing capital outflows, which could lead to forced selling of bonds and significant negative convexity in credit assets [6] - The report suggests that credit should be viewed as a hedging tool, particularly for equity, interest rate, and foreign exchange investors, with a preference for European over US hedging tools [6]

Core Viewpoint - Amid market volatility and the ongoing Iran war, gold has underperformed as an investment, prompting Gavekal Research CEO Louis-Vincent Gave to seek alternative investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The current market is characterized by volatility, influenced by geopolitical tensions such as the Iran war [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - Gold, traditionally seen as a safe haven, has not met expectations during this turbulent period, leading to a reassessment of its role in investment portfolios [1] - Louis-Vincent Gave is exploring other investment alternatives in light of gold's disappointing performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have fallen below $4,500 an ounce despite geopolitical tensions, primarily influenced by rising oil prices and interest rate considerations [1][2]. Gold Market Analysis - The recent decline in gold prices, approximately $1,000 off the all-time high, is attributed to the impact of oil prices exceeding $100 a barrel, which has led to speculation about potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to strong fundamentals, including record central bank purchases and ongoing concerns about inflation and debt levels [4][5]. Price Predictions and Investor Sentiment - Major banks are forecasting gold prices to reach between $6,200 and $6,300, with a critical resistance level identified between $4,900 and $5,000 [7]. - Current market conditions are viewed as a favorable buying opportunity for long-term investors, especially after significant price increases in the previous year [8][9]. Mining Profitability - The cost of gold extraction varies by company, ranging from $1,700 to $3,000 an ounce, impacting profitability as gold prices fluctuate [10]. Silver Market Insights - Silver is currently seen as undervalued, with prices significantly lower than recent highs, presenting a potential entry point for investors [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, specifically gold and silver, are experiencing significant declines, with gold down nearly 7% and silver down 8% as the week begins [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices have decreased by nearly 7% [1] - Silver prices have dropped by 8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a significant decline, with spot gold prices dropping below $4100 per ounce, marking a new low since November of the previous year, with an intraday drop of approximately 9% [3]. Price Movements - As of March 23, 2023, the following prices and changes were noted: - London Gold: $4251.250, down $240.420 (-5.35%) year-to-date change: -1.55% [5] - London Silver: $64.855, down $3.042 (-4.48%) year-to-date change: -9.39% [5] - COMEX Gold: $4254.3, down $320.6 (-7.01%) year-to-date change: -2.46% [5] - COMEX Silver: $65.050, down $4.614 (-6.62%) year-to-date change: -9.02% [5] - Spot Platinum: $1806.10, down $119.70 (-6.22%) year-to-date change: -12.33% [5] - Spot Palladium: $1373.30, down $35.23 (-2.50%) year-to-date change: -14.46% [5] Reasons for Decline - The recent drop in gold prices has erased all gains made since February 27, 2023, when the conflict in the Middle East began, with a cumulative decline of about 20% [6]. - The primary reasons for this decline include: 1. Geopolitical tensions raising inflation expectations and tightening monetary policy [6]. 2. Profit-taking by investors at high levels [6]. 3. Liquidity panic triggered by stock market volatility leading to passive selling of gold [6]. Market Dynamics - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has increased global energy prices, leading to higher inflation expectations and reduced attractiveness of holding gold [7]. - Central banks tightening monetary policies support the dollar, which in turn suppresses demand for gold and silver [7]. - The traditional role of gold as a safe-haven asset may be reassessed in light of the evolving geopolitical situation [7]. Future Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, some analysts previously maintained a bullish outlook on gold prices, expecting them to reach new historical highs [7]. - Key signals to watch for the potential end of the current gold bull market include: 1. A substantial shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy towards tightening [7]. 2. A significant improvement in the U.S. economic fundamentals indicating a transition to a recovery or re-inflation phase [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in gold and silver prices, attributing the drop to multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve's hawkish signals, and a shift in funds towards high liquidity assets like the US dollar and treasury bonds [4]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Price Movements - Gold prices fell below the $4340 mark, experiencing a drop of over 3%, marking the lowest level since early January [1]. - Silver prices also saw a decline of over 4%, dropping to around $65 [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The article highlights that the recent movements in precious metals, particularly gold, are counterintuitive given the increasing global geopolitical tensions, which typically drive investors towards safe-haven assets [4]. - The strong response from the Federal Reserve has significantly cooled market expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to rising US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, which diverts safe-haven funds away from gold [4]. - Technical selling due to profit-taking has also contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices, creating an unusual scenario where rising oil prices coincide with falling gold prices [4].