Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the decline in China's liquor production is often misinterpreted, and when viewed over a longer time frame, the industry has actually seen growth compared to 20 years ago, despite recent declines [2][3]. Production Trends - In 2016, China's liquor production peaked at 13.58 million tons, but by 2024, it is projected to drop to 4.145 million tons, a decline of approximately 69.48% [2]. - When comparing 2024's production to 2004's 3.116 million tons, there is a growth of 33.02% over the 20-year period [2][3]. Population and Consumption - China's population increased from 1.299 billion in 2004 to 1.408 billion in 2024, a growth of about 8.4%, indicating that per capita liquor consumption has not significantly decreased [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The rapid increase in liquor production from 2004 to 2016 was driven by a booming economy and a proliferation of local liquor brands, leading to overproduction and increased competition [4]. - The decline in production post-2016 reflects a market correction after a period of excess capacity [4]. Revenue Growth - Despite the decline in production, the total sales revenue of the liquor industry grew from 61.23 billion in 2004 to 796.384 billion in 2024, a twelvefold increase [4]. - The increase in revenue is attributed to rising prices rather than increased consumption, as production levels remained relatively stable over the long term [5]. Monetary Influence - The growth in liquor sales revenue aligns closely with the increase in China's M2 money supply, which rose from 25.32 trillion in 2004 to 313.53 trillion in 2024, an increase of 11.38 times [5]. - The article suggests that the driving force behind the liquor industry's growth is not public spending or real estate demand, but rather monetary expansion, indicating that as long as money supply continues to grow, the industry will likely maintain its upward trend [5].