质量成长投资
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以“质量”与“均衡”穿越科技制造新周期
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-28 20:46
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the critical role of technological innovation and high-end manufacturing in building a strong technological nation, highlighting the accelerated development in sectors like semiconductors, chips, innovative pharmaceuticals, and robotics this year [1][2] - The investment opportunities in the technology manufacturing sector are becoming a focal point for the market, with a competitive landscape that may lead to a "winner-takes-all" scenario [1][5] Market Trends - Following a recent peak in A-share indices, the market has entered a phase of healthy consolidation, which is seen as beneficial for sustainable growth [1] - Since September 24, 2024, the market has shown significant structural differentiation, with technology growth sectors leading the way [1] - The overall valuation of the market remains reasonable, with A-share valuations having room for recovery compared to major global indices [1][2] Long-term Optimism Factors - The transition of China's economy from relying on labor and engineering advantages to leveraging technological innovation is reshaping market dynamics [2] - Key long-term factors driving market trends include the formation of a unified national market, strong manufacturing competitiveness, and the integration of AI technology with China's vast engineering resources [2] - The technology sector now accounts for over 25% of the total A-share market capitalization, surpassing the combined market value of the banking and real estate sectors [2] Investment Strategy - The investment approach focuses on selecting high-quality growth companies, with an emphasis on long-term sustainable returns driven by the continuous growth of excellent enterprises [3][4] - The manager employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) model for valuation, allowing for reasonable assessments even for unprofitable companies [3] - The investment philosophy prioritizes quality over short-term gains, with a focus on companies expected to achieve significant profit growth over the next 3 to 5 years [3] Future Opportunities - The manager is optimistic about the potential for manufacturing companies to expand internationally and the reversal of domestic demand trends [4][5] - Companies capable of establishing production and sales systems overseas are expected to gain significant long-term investment opportunities [5] - In the technology sector, areas such as artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and pharmaceuticals are identified as having long-term investment value [5] Investment Participation - Given the competitive nature of the technology manufacturing sector, it is recommended that investors consider professional management or invest in quality funds to effectively participate in the sector's growth [5]