3 月金股报告 ——指数震荡，风格再平衡 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 02 月 27 日 分析师：王永健 执业证书编号：S0740522050001 （2）国内政策流动性宽松，筑牢市场底部。2 月 25 日央行开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作 并净投放 3000 亿元，连续第 12 个月加量续作，确保春节前后的流动性合理充裕；人 民币汇率持续走强稳定了跨境资金流动预期。 科技大类中，高端制造领涨；周期品中，建材钢铁走强。 （1）科技类资产内部，中游高端制造领涨。国防军工、机械设备、电力设备等中游 高端制造表现突出。其中，地缘政治动荡推动国防军工的走强，产业突破亦为其注入 了新的增长动力；海外制造业回暖、国内设备更新周期为机械设备提供支撑；电力设 备受益于 AI 产业海外缺电叙事与两会前的产业政策预期。 （2）周期大类中，建筑材料、钢铁、煤炭占优，有色金属回调。建筑材料中以玻璃 纤维主题领涨，主要受益于供给端优化、AI 算力和新能源需求预期的外溢。此外，在 地产政策托底预期与高股息属性共振下，钢铁与煤炭板块亦有突出表现。相反，受美 联储降息预期反复、海外地缘扰动与商品震荡走势传导，前期涨幅过大的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum discussed how active equity can create excess returns, with insights from prominent fund managers on investment strategies in various sectors, particularly focusing on the cyclical growth opportunities in the energy metals sector and the evolving demand in the lithium battery supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Zhao Longlong emphasized the importance of supply-demand dynamics in identifying cyclical growth opportunities, particularly in the energy metals sector, where he noted a significant increase in physical consumption despite recent profitability challenges for some companies [1][5]. - The investment approach is simplified to supply-demand research, highlighting that while supply has been constrained due to low capital expenditure, demand has shifted significantly towards electric vehicles and renewable energy [5][8]. - The characteristics of companies that can navigate manufacturing cycles include having vision, capability, and the ability to keep pace with technological advancements [6][7]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, Zhao Longlong identified four key areas of focus: upstream resource products, manufacturing overseas, potential explosive AI applications, and a revaluation of the new energy sector [2][10][11]. - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to recover, with demand from energy storage likely to surpass that from electric vehicles in the coming years, marking a significant shift in the market [8][11]. - The energy metals sector is viewed positively due to limited new capacity additions and increasing demand, particularly in the context of electric vehicles and renewable energy [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - The forum discussed how active equity can create excess returns, with insights from industry experts on investment strategies in various sectors, particularly focusing on the cyclical growth opportunities in the energy metals and the lithium battery supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Zhao Longlong emphasized the importance of supply-demand dynamics in identifying cyclical growth opportunities, particularly in the lithium battery industry, which is believed to be emerging from a low point due to increasing global demand for energy storage [1][5]. - The investment approach is simplified to supply-demand research, highlighting that while demand for energy metals is growing, supply is constrained due to low capital expenditure in recent years [5][9]. - The characteristics of companies that can traverse manufacturing cycles include having vision, capability, and the ability to keep pace with technological advancements [7][8]. Group 2: Market Outlook - For 2026, four key directions are anticipated: upstream resource products, manufacturing overseas, potential explosive AI applications, and a value reassessment in the new energy sector [2][12]. - The demand for energy storage is expected to surpass that of electric vehicles in the coming years, marking a significant shift in the lithium battery supply chain [9][12]. - The new energy sector is projected to undergo a value reassessment, with opportunities for reversal across various fields within the industry [13].

Industry Research - By 2025, China's outbound direct investment scale is expected to increase, with more small and medium-sized enterprises venturing abroad. The light manufacturing and home appliance sectors have a high proportion of overseas revenue. Industries with high foreign exposure, such as light manufacturing and automotive, are expected to perform better in stock prices. The correlation between overseas gross profit margins and revenue structure indicates that rising overseas gross profit margins will drive the expansion of overseas business [5]. - Early-stage industries venturing abroad include machinery, basic chemicals, and electric equipment/home appliances. Industries in the acceleration phase of going abroad include electronics, light manufacturing, and automotive. The process of going abroad does not necessarily lead to a decline in export growth; rather, it structurally benefits upstream equipment exports and investments [5]. Company Research - Hisense Visual Technology (600060.SH) is a leading global provider of display solutions, focusing on "multi-scenario large display" and building a comprehensive matrix covering home, commercial, and automotive scenarios. The company adheres to a development strategy of "technology-driven and stable operation," being the only domestic display enterprise with a comprehensive layout in LCD, laser display, and LED technologies. In 2024, the company is projected to achieve total operating revenue of 58.5 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.2 billion yuan [7]. - Chao Hong Ji (002345.SZ) emphasizes product research and innovation, successfully transitioning from a channel-driven to a product-driven industry. The company attracts young consumers through low-priced, lightweight IP products while enhancing brand quality with high-end series products featuring intangible cultural heritage, premium gold and diamonds, and collaborations with the Palace Museum [8].

Market Overview - In January 2026, global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets. Chinese stocks performed moderately, while US stocks lagged behind [5][11] - The cyclical sector led the market, driven by rising commodity prices, particularly in energy and materials, while the financial sector underperformed [5][11] Core Themes - February marks a traditional bullish window for A-shares, with historical data showing a 76% probability of gains and an average increase of 3.4% [17] - Regulatory measures are limiting speculative trading, directing funds towards sectors with solid fundamentals. The focus is on core sectors with improving profitability, particularly in cyclical and technology manufacturing [21][22] A-share Market and Structural Analysis - The A-share market is expected to transition into a "slow bull" market, driven by profit improvement rather than valuation expansion. The liquidity environment remains relatively loose, supporting market growth [28][31] - The basic fundamentals are expected to strengthen, with corporate profits likely to improve due to policies aimed at reducing competition and stabilizing prices [28][30] Sector Focus - The main sector themes are price increases and technology manufacturing, with a focus on performance realization rather than speculative trends. The technology manufacturing sector is benefiting from the integration of AI and overseas expansion [36][38] - The cyclical sector, particularly non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, is expected to see significant profit recovery due to rising commodity prices [38] Growth and Value Dynamics - The growth-oriented ChiNext index is projected to outperform the value-oriented CSI 300 index, although the margin of outperformance is narrowing [47] - The proportion of companies with positive earnings forecasts is slightly improving, indicating a potential recovery in corporate profitability [22] Market Style and Trends - Small-cap stocks are expected to perform strongly in February, benefiting from a favorable environment due to limited IPOs and a focus on earnings reports [57][63] - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to continue its slow bull trend, supported by liquidity and the ongoing AI industry wave [64][65] US Market Outlook - The US market is consolidating its fundamentals, preparing for the next upward movement, with corporate earnings showing strong growth across various sectors [70] - A balanced investment strategy is recommended, maintaining core positions in technology while diversifying into cyclical sectors to capture potential excess returns [70]

Group 1: Macro Insights - By 2025, China's outbound direct investment is expected to increase, with more small and medium-sized enterprises venturing abroad. The light manufacturing and home appliance sectors are projected to have a high proportion of overseas revenue [2] - Industries with high exposure to foreign markets, such as light manufacturing and automotive, are expected to perform better in terms of stock prices. The correlation between overseas gross margins and revenue structure indicates that rising overseas gross margins will drive business expansion [2] - Early-stage industries for going abroad include machinery, basic chemicals, and power equipment/home appliances, while industries accelerating their overseas expansion include electronics, light manufacturing, and automotive [2] Group 2: Company Research - Qualcomm's FY26Q1 performance met expectations, but the guidance for FY26Q2 fell short due to memory shortages and price increases negatively impacting downstream demand. The forecast for GAAP net profit for FY2026-2028 is $11.5 billion, $12.5 billion, and $13 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14X, 13X, and 12X [4] - Chao Hong Ji has focused on product research and innovation, transitioning from a channel-driven to a product-driven approach. The company is expected to achieve net profits of 483 million, 700 million, and 838 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with EPS of 0.54, 0.79, and 0.94 yuan, respectively, and a target price of 16.77 yuan [5] - Yum China reported Q4 2025 revenue of $2.823 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and operating profit of $187 million, up 25%. The same-store sales growth accelerated, and the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 to $1.027 billion and $1.109 billion, respectively [6]

Group 1: Macro Insights - By 2025, China's outbound direct investment scale is expected to increase, with more small and medium-sized enterprises venturing abroad. The light manufacturing and home appliance sectors are projected to have a high proportion of overseas revenue [5] - Industries with high foreign exposure, such as light manufacturing and automotive, are likely to see better stock performance. The correlation between overseas gross margin and revenue structure indicates that rising overseas gross margins will drive business expansion [5] - Early outbound industries include machinery, basic chemicals, and electric equipment/home appliances, while accelerated outbound industries will be electronics, light manufacturing, and automotive. Outbound expansion does not necessarily lead to a decline in export growth, as it structurally benefits upstream equipment exports and investments [5] Group 2: Company-Specific Analysis - Chaohongji (002345.SZ) focuses on product research and innovation, transitioning from channel-driven to product-driven strategies. The company attracts younger consumers through low-priced IP products and enhances brand quality with high-end series like non-heritage flower silk and Palace Museum collaborations [7] - Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) announced its actual controller's first share buyback, acquiring 13,447,369 shares, which is 0.19% of the total share capital, with a total investment of 329.97 million yuan [8] - Qualcomm (QCOM.O) reported FY26Q1 results that met expectations, with Non-GAAP revenue of $12.252 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase. However, the guidance for FY26Q2 fell short of expectations, projecting Non-GAAP revenue between $10.2 billion and $11 billion [9] - Yum China (9987.HK) exceeded expectations in Q4 2025, achieving revenue of $2.823 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, and operating profit of $187 million, up 25% year-over-year. Same-store sales growth accelerated, and restaurant profit margins improved [10] - Chongqing Beer (600132.SH) reported a revenue of 14.72 billion yuan for 2025, a 0.5% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of 1.23 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-over-year. Q4 2025 saw a revenue of 1.66 billion yuan, a 5.2% year-over-year increase, with a slight reduction in net profit loss [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the current status of China's manufacturing industry going abroad, identifies future leading industries for overseas expansion, and discusses the impact of RMB appreciation on exports and investments [4]. Group 1: Current Trends in Overseas Expansion - The wave of overseas expansion is still on the rise, with a slight increase in China's foreign direct investment expected by 2025, and more small and medium-sized enterprises joining the trend. Policies are aimed at promoting globalization and enhancing external demand while facilitating supply-side reforms [5]. Group 2: Industries with Significant Overseas Revenue Growth - In terms of primary industries, light manufacturing and home appliances have a high proportion of overseas revenue. The electronic and machinery supply chains, as well as service trade, have seen rapid year-on-year growth in overseas revenue. Among secondary industries, electronics and machinery-related sectors show a high overseas revenue share, with notable improvements in competitiveness for the electronic communication, finance, and gaming industries. Industries with high foreign exposure, such as light manufacturing and automotive, have shown relatively better stock performance, and private enterprises are increasingly active in overseas markets, potentially becoming the main contributors to overseas revenue during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6]. Group 3: High Overseas Gross Margin as a Driving Force - Listed companies exhibit high overseas gross margins due to strong overseas demand, making exports a major contributor to economic growth. Companies are accelerating capacity expansion abroad, leading to increased product value. In the first half of 2025, industries such as computers, pharmaceuticals, beauty care, and machinery equipment reported high overseas gross margins. The difference in gross margins between domestic and overseas operations correlates with revenue structure, with industries like automotive, transportation, and power equipment showing higher overseas gross margins than domestic ones. The average overseas revenue gross margin increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Overseas Expansion Progress - The report assesses investment trends in different regions such as ASEAN, the United States, and Latin America through forward-looking signals (announcements of foreign investments by listed companies) and mid-term validations (revenue from overseas subsidiaries). Early-stage industries for overseas expansion include machinery equipment, basic chemicals, power equipment/home appliances, food and beverages, and computers. Accelerated expansion industries include electronics, light manufacturing, and automotive [8]. Group 5: Impact of RMB Appreciation on Exports and Investments - Going abroad does not necessarily lead to a decline in export growth. It can stimulate the growth of domestic capital goods and intermediate goods exports, leading to structural adjustments in exports. It also facilitates market expansion for localized production overseas. Innovation is identified as the primary driver for strong export momentum, helping to avoid the middle-income trap. The structural aspects of going abroad are beneficial for upstream equipment investments. Although the capacity expansion of overseas subsidiaries may suppress domestic investment willingness in corresponding sectors, the exploration of overseas markets is favorable for upstream supporting enterprises' capacity expansion and R&D investments [9].

Group 1: Current Trends in Overseas Investment - In 2025, China's total outward direct investment is projected to reach $174.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%[13] - Non-financial outward direct investment is expected to be $145.66 billion, growing by 1.3% year-on-year, with the number of companies engaging in overseas investment increasing by 21.4%[13] - The export growth of intermediate and capital goods is notably high, while consumer goods have entered negative growth since April 2025[13] Group 2: Industry Performance in Overseas Revenue - In the first half of 2025, the highest overseas revenue shares are seen in light manufacturing (35.4%) and home appliances (34.4%) among 31 A-share industries[21] - The electronics and machinery sectors show significant year-on-year growth in overseas revenue, with telecommunications at 33.4% and non-bank financial services at 32.9%[21] - Private enterprises are increasingly active in overseas markets, with a 14.1% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue, compared to a 3.5% decline for state-owned enterprises[32] Group 3: Profitability and Margins - The average overseas gross margin for listed companies is 29.2%, compared to 24.7% for domestic operations, indicating a higher profitability in international markets[33] - Industries such as computers (51.6%), pharmaceuticals (45.2%), and beauty care (36.3%) exhibit high overseas gross margins, while sectors like real estate (7.7%) and steel (8.7%) show lower margins[33] - The average overseas gross margin increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to the expansion of overseas business scales[34] Group 4: Regional Investment Trends - Investment in ASEAN remains active, with 190 investment announcements in 2025, primarily targeting Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam[39] - In Latin America, investments are focused on the automotive and machinery sectors, particularly in Mexico, to leverage tariff advantages under the USMCA[43] - Investment in Europe is shifting towards second-tier countries like Hungary and Serbia, with a focus on machinery, automotive, and electrical equipment sectors[45]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the adaptability of balanced allocation strategies in a rapidly changing and volatile market environment [1] - Invesco Great Wall Fund is currently issuing the Invesco Great Wall Balanced Growth Equity Fund, managed by the emerging fund manager Wang Kaichuan, who focuses on constructing a relatively balanced investment portfolio from an industry cycle perspective [1] - Wang Kaichuan has developed a dynamic investment method based on the industry lifecycle, categorizing industries into six stages: embryonic, acceleration, collapse, clearing, maturity, and recovery [1] Group 2 - The fund management approach emphasizes industry diversification, strict control of single industry weight, and a "blacklist" mechanism to avoid companies with governance issues or unclear business models [1] - Wang Kaichuan plans to be more cautious in selecting targets, focusing on absolute returns rather than extreme net value sharpness, aiming to control volatility and enhance the holding experience for investors [1] - The fund adopts a floating management fee model, linking the management fee rate to excess returns, which aligns the interests of the fund manager and investors, thereby improving the investor holding experience [2]