Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the recent China - US summit call helps ease the current deadlock, but the US Bureau of Industry and Security's restrictions on ethane and butane exports to China have brought new trade disruptions. The geopolitical trade disturbances are heating up again, and the ethane MB price has dropped to a historical low. The strategy is that oil prices are oscillating at the bottom, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's July - delivery light crude oil futures rose 52 cents to $63.37 per barrel, a 0.83% increase; August - delivery London Brent crude oil futures rose 48 cents to $65.34 per barrel, a 0.74% increase. The SC crude oil main contract fell 1.07% to 463 yuan per barrel [1]. - The European Central Bank cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with market expectations, for the 7th consecutive meeting. The main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate were cut from 2.4% and 2.65% to 2.15% and 2.4% respectively, reaching the lowest level since early 2023 [1]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly increased to the highest level since October last year. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31 increased by 0.8 million to 24.7 million, higher than the market expectation of 23.5 million. The four - week average also rose to 23.5 million, the highest since October last year [1]. - As of the week ending June 4, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose 243,000 barrels to a 6 - week high of 22.581 million barrels; middle distillates inventory fell 686,000 barrels to a 4 - week low of 9.24 million barrels; light distillates inventory rose 81,000 barrels to a 2 - week high of 13.102 million barrels [1]. - Israel assured the White House that it would not attack Iran's nuclear facilities unless US President Trump signaled the failure of negotiations with Iran [1]. Investment Logic The recent China - US summit call helps ease the current deadlock, but the US has restricted the export of ethane and butane to China. The largest US NGL exporter EPD has three ethane shipments affected, which is bad news for both US ethane consumption and Chinese ethane cracking enterprises. The ethane MB price has dropped to a historical low, and trade disturbances due to geopolitics have intensified [2]. Strategy Oil prices are oscillating at the bottom, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3]. Risks - Downside risks: The Iran nuclear deal is reached, and macro black - swan events occur [3]. - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [4].