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外服控股(600662):基本盘稳健,业务结构优势兼顾良好成长潜力
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a market price of RMB 5.04 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [2]. Core Insights - The company, as the first publicly listed human resources service provider in China's A-share market, has a solid foundation and a competitive edge in high-margin services such as personnel management and compensation benefits. It is expected to benefit from the industry's growth driven by outsourcing and flexible employment trends [4][9]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of approximately RMB 258 billion, RMB 291 billion, and RMB 332 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of RMB 6.77 billion, RMB 7.33 billion, and RMB 7.67 billion respectively. The company is expected to maintain its profitability despite a slight decline in gross margin [6][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a 40-year history in the human resources service industry and was listed through a major asset restructuring in 2021. It has established a comprehensive service structure covering personnel management, compensation benefits, recruitment, flexible employment, and outsourcing [16][21]. - The company is controlled by state-owned capital, ensuring stability in governance and operational compliance [19]. Industry Analysis - The human resources service market is expected to grow steadily, with a projected CAGR of 13.89% from 2024 to 2028, potentially exceeding RMB 30 trillion by 2025. New business models such as outsourcing and flexible employment are anticipated to drive this growth [45][47]. - The employment sentiment is stabilizing, with the unemployment rate remaining steady between 5.0% and 5.6% since 2023, indicating a potential recovery in recruitment intentions [55][56]. Competitive Advantages and Growth Drivers - The company has a broad client base, serving over 50,000 clients and more than 3 million employees, which mitigates risks associated with industry fluctuations [77]. - The company is focusing on professionalization, digitalization, and internationalization, which are expected to enhance its long-term growth potential [74][75]. - The outsourcing business has shown significant growth, driven by the need for companies to reduce costs and improve efficiency, indicating a high certainty of growth in this segment [82][84].