跨境电商经营周期
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纵览跨境之三:鉴往知来,再看跨境当下投资机会
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-03 11:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the cross-border e-commerce industry [11]. Core Insights - Cross-border e-commerce is characterized by high customer unit prices and high markup rates, but it has a longer midstream chain, leading to significant fluctuations in profitability [22]. - The industry is currently in a recovery phase, with a projected revenue growth of 26% in 2024 and 15% in Q1-Q3 of 2025, while non-recurring net profits are expected to decline by 46% and grow by 1% respectively [3][7]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of profitability in the industry, with leading sellers gaining a relative advantage [8]. Summary by Sections Introduction: Exploring the Operating Cycle of Cross-Border E-Commerce - Cross-border e-commerce involves pre-stocking goods in overseas warehouses and includes complex logistics processes such as customs clearance and last-mile delivery, making it more intricate than traditional consumer goods [3][7]. Review: Strong Profitability Cycles and Head Seller Advantages - Historical analysis shows that the penetration rate of overseas e-commerce and the share of Chinese sellers are increasing, establishing a high growth baseline for the industry [8]. - The industry is transitioning from a phase dominated by e-commerce dividends to one focused on quality and compliance, with leading sellers outperforming overall industry growth [8]. Current Situation: Negative Impacts Easing, Industry Bottoming Out - The industry is currently in a recovery phase, driven by orderly supply chain transitions and tax reforms in China's e-commerce sector, which enhance competitive dynamics among leading sellers [9]. - Inventory levels among top sellers have reached historical lows, indicating that the inventory destocking phase is nearing its end, and shipping costs still have room to decline [9]. Investment Recommendations: Lightening the Load, Performance Inflection Point Expected - The report suggests that the cross-border e-commerce industry is expected to experience a performance inflection point in 2026, with revenue and profitability on an upward trajectory [10]. - Recommended companies include Anker Innovations and Ugreen Technology, which are leveraging channel and operational advantages to build brand recognition among overseas consumers [10].