Summary of Horizon Robotics Conference Call Company Overview - Horizon Robotics is a leading supplier of intelligent driving and edge AI SoC and solutions in China, with over 310 model design wins for its intelligent driving solutions by the end of 2024 [doc id='13']. Industry Insights - The Chinese government is actively promoting the commercialization of L3 intelligent connected vehicles, which is expected to enhance the penetration of advanced driving solutions [doc id='3'][doc id='17']. - Major Chinese automotive OEMs are advancing their intelligent driving technologies, indicating a competitive landscape for Horizon Robotics [doc id='20']. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Optimistic Outlook on HSD Deployment**: - The company has raised its revenue forecast for Horizon SuperDrive (HSD) by 32% to 17% for 2026-2028, reflecting positive feedback from production solution trials and entry into the Robotaxi sector [doc id='1'][doc id='21']. - The stock price has increased by 42% over the past month, outperforming the CSI AI Index by 8 percentage points [doc id='1']. 2. **Strategic Partnerships**: - Horizon Robotics signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Robotaxi manufacturer Hello to develop L4-level intelligent driving solutions, showcasing recognition of its J6P chip and HSD solutions by higher-tier autonomous driving clients [doc id='3'][doc id='16']. 3. **Performance Metrics**: - The HSD solution has achieved a latency of 150 milliseconds and an industry-leading takeover rate in complex urban environments, enhancing confidence in its future performance [doc id='2']. 4. **Valuation Adjustments**: - The target price has been raised to HK$13.20 based on DCF analysis, reflecting higher revenue and cash flow assumptions [doc id='4'][doc id='26']. - The current stock price corresponds to a 20x PS for 2026, which is about 30% higher than major competitors, but the company’s revenue CAGR for 2025-2027 is projected to be 80%, significantly above the industry average [doc id='28']. 5. **Financial Projections**: - Revenue is expected to reach RMB 10.8 billion by 2029, accounting for approximately 60% of its automotive solutions revenue [doc id='21']. - The company anticipates a significant increase in non-automotive solutions revenue, with a CAGR of 103% from 2024 to 2028 [doc id='10']. 6. **Profitability Outlook**: - Horizon Robotics is expected to turn positive in EBIT by 2027, with a projected EBIT margin of 4% by 2028 [doc id='11']. Additional Important Insights - The company’s high R&D expenses, which are 132% of revenue, are a concern compared to peers, where the average is 10-25% [doc id='14']. - The government’s push for intelligent connected vehicles is expected to stimulate consumer demand and technological advancements in the automotive sector [doc id='18']. Conclusion - Horizon Robotics is positioned to benefit from structural trends in the automotive and AI sectors, with optimistic revenue growth forecasts and strategic partnerships enhancing its market position. The valuation remains attractive despite a higher PS ratio compared to competitors, supported by strong growth projections.