点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 事件： HSD量产上车交卷，激活量两周破万。2025年，奇瑞星途ET5首发搭载地平线560 TOPS算力的J6P 芯 片+HSD城区辅助驾驶系统，HSD采用一段式端到端+VLM架构，实现百毫秒级的时延和"类人思考"的防 御性驾驶。公司创始人兼CEO余凯在大会上宣布，搭载公司HSD辅助驾驶系统的深蓝L06和奇瑞星途ET5 在上市两周内，HSD激活量突破12,000辆。高性价比城区NOA方案有望普惠10万元级车型。根据大会展 示的25Q1-25Q3中国乘用车成交价分布数据，13万以下的乘用车占50%。目前HSD已成功切入13 万-20万区间车型。基于单颗J6M芯片的城区NOA方案即将量产上车，即将普惠到10万元级国民车市场。 首批合作伙伴包 ...

光大证券发布研报称，维持地平线机器人-W(09660)"买入"评级，大会上公司发布了多项重要进展，高 阶辅助驾驶系统"HSD"已实现量产，激活量两周突破1.2万辆，并有望将城区NOA功能下探至10万元级 车型市场。其海外市场拓展初见成效，中高阶产品出货量占比有望持续提升，J6P+HSD首发上车进一 步提升公司产品ASP与品牌力。 光大证券主要观点如下： 事件 公司于2025年12月8-9日，在深圳召开"2025地平线技术生态大会"(以下简称"大会")。大会以"向高同 行"为主题，主&分论坛主题涵盖全场景辅助驾驶、智能汽车开放协同、全域自动驾驶的规模化商用、 从智能汽车到机器人的技术跃迁等多个细分场景。 高阶辅助驾驶系统"HSD"量产，城区NOA有望下探至10万元级汽车市场 HSD量产上车交卷，激活量两周破万。2025年，奇瑞星途ET5首发搭载地平线560TOPS算力的J6P芯片 +HSD城区辅助驾驶系统，HSD采用一段式端到端+VLM架构，实现百毫秒级的时延和"类人思考"的防 御性驾驶。公司创始人兼CEO余凯在大会上宣布，搭载公司HSD辅助驾驶系统的深蓝L06和奇瑞星途 ET5在上市两周内，HSD激活量突破1 ...

2025年，电动车已经成产能过剩重点"关照"的行业，电动化技术创新接近尾声，车企陷入同质化 "无效内卷"，净利率持续承压。 汽车行业迈入从电动车向智能汽车转型的下半场，用户对体验升级的追求是核心驱动力，智能化被看成了重构竞争壁垒的关键。而在智能驾驶赛道，智驾 芯片供应商是关键"卖铲人"。 地平线作为国产智驾芯片核心玩家，24年国内出货量市占率有三四成，25年开推高阶芯片J6P，搭配城市NOA算法HSD，向英伟达发起冲击。 但同年，蔚来、小鹏、理想、比亚迪等纷纷开始自研芯片，市场开始担心车企自研后，地平线还剩多大价值？ 海豚君对于地平线的深度研究将覆盖以下几个核心问题： 以下是详细分析 一、智驾芯片的市场空间如何？ a. 下游需求端： 智驾渗透率加速，高阶升级更快 从新能源车的智能化渗透率来看，2024年中国仍仅有11%的新车配备了L2+级别的ADAS功能（其中高速NOA 4%, 城市NOA 7%）。 但2025年，在以比亚迪为首的"智驾平权" 将高速NOA下沉到10-20万元级别的平价车型中；以华为和新势力为首的"智驾引领"梯队则加速普及高阶的城市 NOA，L2+及以上9月达到了33.5%，智驾渗透率正在加速 ...

Summary of Horizon Robotics Conference Call Company Overview - Horizon Robotics is a leading supplier of intelligent driving and edge AI SoC and solutions in China, with over 310 model design wins for its intelligent driving solutions by the end of 2024 [doc id='13']. Industry Insights - The Chinese government is actively promoting the commercialization of L3 intelligent connected vehicles, which is expected to enhance the penetration of advanced driving solutions [doc id='3'][doc id='17']. - Major Chinese automotive OEMs are advancing their intelligent driving technologies, indicating a competitive landscape for Horizon Robotics [doc id='20']. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Optimistic Outlook on HSD Deployment**: - The company has raised its revenue forecast for Horizon SuperDrive (HSD) by 32% to 17% for 2026-2028, reflecting positive feedback from production solution trials and entry into the Robotaxi sector [doc id='1'][doc id='21']. - The stock price has increased by 42% over the past month, outperforming the CSI AI Index by 8 percentage points [doc id='1']. 2. **Strategic Partnerships**: - Horizon Robotics signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Robotaxi manufacturer Hello to develop L4-level intelligent driving solutions, showcasing recognition of its J6P chip and HSD solutions by higher-tier autonomous driving clients [doc id='3'][doc id='16']. 3. **Performance Metrics**: - The HSD solution has achieved a latency of 150 milliseconds and an industry-leading takeover rate in complex urban environments, enhancing confidence in its future performance [doc id='2']. 4. **Valuation Adjustments**: - The target price has been raised to HK$13.20 based on DCF analysis, reflecting higher revenue and cash flow assumptions [doc id='4'][doc id='26']. - The current stock price corresponds to a 20x PS for 2026, which is about 30% higher than major competitors, but the company’s revenue CAGR for 2025-2027 is projected to be 80%, significantly above the industry average [doc id='28']. 5. **Financial Projections**: - Revenue is expected to reach RMB 10.8 billion by 2029, accounting for approximately 60% of its automotive solutions revenue [doc id='21']. - The company anticipates a significant increase in non-automotive solutions revenue, with a CAGR of 103% from 2024 to 2028 [doc id='10']. 6. **Profitability Outlook**: - Horizon Robotics is expected to turn positive in EBIT by 2027, with a projected EBIT margin of 4% by 2028 [doc id='11']. Additional Important Insights - The company’s high R&D expenses, which are 132% of revenue, are a concern compared to peers, where the average is 10-25% [doc id='14']. - The government’s push for intelligent connected vehicles is expected to stimulate consumer demand and technological advancements in the automotive sector [doc id='18']. Conclusion - Horizon Robotics is positioned to benefit from structural trends in the automotive and AI sectors, with optimistic revenue growth forecasts and strategic partnerships enhancing its market position. The valuation remains attractive despite a higher PS ratio compared to competitors, supported by strong growth projections.

Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic intelligent driving solution market, with significant revenue growth and a strong market presence, driven by product optimization and strategic partnerships [4][6][8]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.552 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected increase to 8.047 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 50% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve from a loss of 6.739 billion yuan in 2023 to a profit of 403.52 million yuan by 2027 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to transition from a loss of 0.49 yuan in 2023 to a profit of 0.03 yuan in 2027 [2]. Revenue Growth - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68%, significantly exceeding market expectations [4]. - The revenue from product solutions grew by 250%, while licensing and service revenue increased by 7% [4]. Product Development - The company saw a doubling of overall chip shipments to 1.98 million units in the first half of 2025, with mid-to-high-end chip shipments increasing sixfold to 980,000 units [5]. - The average price per chip rose by 106% to 393 yuan, attributed to an improved product mix favoring higher-end products [5]. - The J6B chip has secured international model designations from overseas automakers, with expected lifetime shipments exceeding 7.5 million units [5]. Market Position - The company has established partnerships with 27 OEMs (42 brands), with over 310 designated models, leading to a market share of 45.8% in the Chinese OEM ADAS/AD market [6]. - The company maintains a strong competitive position, with its market share in intelligent driving solutions continuing to rise [6]. Research and Development - R&D expenses reached 2.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 62% increase, aimed at enhancing core competitiveness and establishing technological barriers [7]. - Despite significant R&D investments, the adjusted net profit was a loss of 1.33 billion yuan, indicating a focus on long-term growth potential [7]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains revenue forecasts of 3.66 billion yuan for 2025, 5.37 billion yuan for 2026, and 8.05 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of 36.4, 24.8, and 16.6 respectively [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.57 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 68%, significantly exceeding market expectations [7] - The overall chip shipment reached 1.98 million units in the first half of 2025, doubling year-on-year, with mid-to-high-end chip shipments increasing sixfold [7] - The average price per chip in the first half of 2025 was 393 yuan, up 106% year-on-year, driven by an improved product mix [7] - The company has established partnerships with 27 OEMs (42 brands), with over 310 models confirmed, maintaining a leading market share in China [7] - R&D expenses reached 2.3 billion in the first half of 2025, a 62% increase year-on-year, aimed at enhancing core competitiveness [7] - The report forecasts revenues of 3.66 billion, 5.36 billion, and 8.05 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/S ratios of 36.4, 24.8, and 16.6 [7] Financial Summary - The company reported a net profit of -13.3 billion in the first half of 2025, with an adjusted net profit of -13 billion [7] - The projected total revenue for 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 1.55 billion, 2.38 billion, 3.66 billion, 5.36 billion, and 8.05 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 71.32%, 53.62%, 53.52%, 46.60%, and 50.00% [1][8] - The projected net profit for the same years is -6.74 billion, 2.35 billion, -2.45 billion, -1.41 billion, and 0.40 billion, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 22.71%, 134.82%, -204.40%, 42.57%, and 128.68% [1][8]

Core Insights - Northbound capital recorded a net purchase of HKD 92.81 billion in the Hong Kong stock market on September 2, with a total annual net purchase exceeding HKD 1 trillion, marking the highest since the launch of the Stock Connect mechanism [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988) was the most bought stock, with a net purchase of HKD 53.68 billion, while it had a total transaction volume of HKD 86.47 billion [2][4] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) faced a net sell of HKD 4.1 billion, with total transactions amounting to HKD 60.46 billion [2][7] - Semiconductor stocks, SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), experienced significant net sells of HKD 10.36 billion and HKD 10.14 billion respectively [6] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley reported that Alibaba's delivery and instant retail business has reached a scalable level, expecting a reduction in losses for Ele.me in the coming quarters [4] - CICC highlighted that despite short-term liquidity issues affecting Hong Kong stocks, long-term structural advantages remain significant [5] - UBS expressed optimism about Horizon Robotics (09660) following a successful investor meeting, anticipating growth driven by design orders from multiple automotive manufacturers [5] Group 3: Market Trends - The net buying trend from Northbound capital indicates a strong interest in major tech stocks, particularly Alibaba and Tencent, which received net purchases of HKD 34.43 billion and HKD 4.92 billion respectively [4][5] - The semiconductor sector is facing pressure, with analysts suggesting that the market may have been overly optimistic about companies like ZTE Corporation (00763) due to disappointing earnings [6]

Core Viewpoint - Horizon Robotics-W (09660) reported a significant increase in revenue and profitability for the first half of 2025, indicating strong growth momentum in the autonomous driving technology sector [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1.567 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 67.6% [1] - Gross profit reached 1.024 billion yuan, with a comprehensive gross margin of 65.4% [1] - Cash reserves stood at 16.1 billion yuan, reflecting a solid financial position [1] Market Insights - Goldman Sachs noted that the revenue growth of 68% exceeded expectations, primarily driven by increased shipments of the Journey6 model [1] - The firm expressed a positive outlook on the mass production of the Horizon Super Driving (HSD) system starting in the second half of the year [1] - The company shipped 980,000 units of its NOA function products, accounting for 50% of total shipments, which contributed to an increase in average selling prices [1] Growth Prospects - Bank of America Securities, after attending the investor meeting post-earnings report, expressed increased optimism regarding the company's growth prospects due to successful vehicle design integrations in domestic and international markets [1] - The bank anticipates that the company will secure design orders for high-end HSD solutions from at least 4-5 automotive manufacturers this year, which is expected to boost shipments of the J6P chip from an estimated 40,000 units in 2025 to 430,000 units in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Bank of America Securities has raised the target price for Horizon Robotics-W (09660) from HKD 9.3 to HKD 11.1 and reiterated a "Buy" rating due to optimistic growth prospects following a recent investor meeting after the company's earnings report [1] - The company is expected to secure design orders for high-end HSD solutions from at least 4-5 automotive manufacturers this year, which will significantly increase the shipment volume of its J6P chips from an estimated 40,000 units in 2025 to 430,000 units in 2026 [1] - The management anticipates an increase in market share for Horizon's intelligent driving assistance solutions among domestic automotive OEMs in the fiscal year 2026, leading to a 3-5% upward revision in revenue forecasts for the fiscal years 2026-2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities expresses increased optimism regarding Horizon Robotics' future growth prospects following the investor meeting after the company's earnings report, citing successful progress in vehicle design integration in both domestic and international markets [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company is expected to secure design orders for high-end HSD solutions from at least 4-5 automotive manufacturers this year, which is anticipated to drive the shipment of its J6P chips from an estimated 40,000 units in 2025 to 430,000 units in 2026 [1] - The management anticipates an increase in market share for Horizon's intelligent driving assistance solutions among domestic OEMs in the fiscal year 2026 [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Bank of America Securities raises its revenue forecast for Horizon Robotics for the fiscal years 2026-2027 by 3-5% to reflect better progress in new vehicle design orders, expecting large-scale shipments to commence from the fiscal year 2026 [1] - The target price for Horizon Robotics has been increased from HKD 9.3 to HKD 11.1, with a reiterated "Buy" rating [1]