转债市场极化估值
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转债市场周报:化估值的持续性取决于权益市场走向-20260201
Guoxin Securities· 2026-02-01 10:05
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sustainability of polarized valuations depends on the direction of the equity market. The report presents three scenarios for the equity market and corresponding convertible bond strategies: 1) If the spring rally continues, the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through 4,200, and the market style shifts from small - cap to large - cap, it is recommended to select convertible bonds related to the battery, automotive/robot/intelligent driving, edge - side AI, and innovative drug/CDMO sectors in the growth technology sector; 2) If the broad - based index continues the January oscillation and the small - cap style remains dominant, focus on core targets in popular tracks such as commercial space, AIDC - related gas turbines/liquid cooling, semiconductor equipment and materials, power semiconductors, and chemical industries; 3) If the equity market turns down, it is recommended to reduce positions first and then focus on defensive sectors like banks, power, and pig farming [2][20]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Focus from January 26 - January 30, 2026 - **Stock Market**: Daily trading volume remained high with rapid sector rotation. The precious metals sector led the gains but had a significant decline on Friday. The A - share oil and gas sector performed well due to the potential conflict risk between the US and Iran. Some previously popular sectors such as commercial space and space photovoltaics had significant pullbacks. Different sectors rose and fell on different days. In terms of industries, most Shenwan primary industries declined, with petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, coal, non - ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery leading the gains, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, automotive, and computer sectors performing poorly [8][9]. - **Bond Market**: The central bank's open - market operations were mainly net injections, and the money market shifted from tight to loose. Bond market sentiment was generally strong. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.81% on Friday, down 1.86bp from the previous week [9]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Most convertible bond issues declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.61% for the week, the median price dropped 2.22%, the arithmetic average parity fell 3.70%, and the overall market conversion premium rate increased 1.12% compared to the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in different parity ranges changed, and they were at high percentile values since 2023 [9]. Viewpoints and Strategies from February 2 - February 6, 2026 - After the convertible bond market adjusted with the equity market last week, the sustainability of polarized valuations depends on the equity market's direction. Three scenarios and corresponding strategies are proposed as mentioned in the core viewpoints [2][20]. Valuation Overview - As of January 30, 2026, the average conversion premium rates of equity - biased convertible bonds in different parity ranges were at high percentile values since 2010 and 2021. The average YTM of debt - biased convertible bonds with a parity below 70 yuan was at a low percentile value. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds and the difference between the convertible bond implied volatility and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks were at high percentile values [21]. Primary Market Tracking - **Last Week (January 26 - January 30, 2026)**: No convertible bonds were announced for issuance. Lianrui Convertible Bond and Naipu Convertible Bond 02 were listed. Lianrui Convertible Bond has a scale of 695 million yuan, and Naipu Convertible Bond 02 has a scale of 450 million yuan [28][29]. - **Future Outlook**: No convertible bonds are announced for issuance or listing in the next week (February 2 - February 6, 2026). As of now, there are 100 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total scale of 155.9 billion yuan, of which 8 have been approved for registration, with a total scale of 6.16 billion yuan [30][31].