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生猪:等待矛盾释放
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 02:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - After the May Day holiday, there is still a willingness for secondary fattening to rotate, but the price difference between fat pigs in the north and south is inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. The near - end contradiction is not yet at the release stage. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, the capital disturbance has decreased, and the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the far - month inter - month spread valuation deviating from the norm. It is expected that the liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread will gradually increase at the end of May, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 15,000 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; in Sichuan, it is 14,550 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100; in Guangdong, it is 15,240 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50 [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2507 contract is 13,525 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 30; Pig 2509 is 13,870 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 55; Pig 2511 is 13,580 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 45 [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Pig 2507 is 5,047 lots, a decrease of 247 from the previous day, and the open interest is 29,892 lots, a decrease of 776 from the previous day. For Pig 2509, the trading volume is 18,946 lots, a decrease of 7,585, and the open interest is 71,354 lots, an increase of 35. For Pig 2511, the trading volume is 4,307 lots, an increase of 694, and the open interest is 29,610 lots, an increase of 454 [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Pig 2507 is 1,475 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 30; Pig 2509 is 1,130 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 55; Pig 2511 is 1,420 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 45. The 7 - 9 spread of pigs is - 345 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 85; the 9 - 11 spread is 290 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 10 [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2] for integers, indicating a neutral position [4].