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生猪市场周报:开学、国储提振情绪,生猪价格区间波动-20250822
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side in August shows an increase in the slaughter plan of the breeding end compared to the previous month, resulting in a relatively loose market supply. However, as prices fall, some farms may be inclined to hold out for higher prices, and the entry of second - round fattening has increased, which will slow down the slaughter rhythm. Additionally, the current price difference between fat and standard pigs has widened, providing conditions for later pressure on stocks [6]. - On the demand side, the state will conduct central pork reserve purchases in the near future, boosting market confidence. With sufficient pig supply and improved demand in some areas, the slaughterhouse operating rate has moderately rebounded. It is expected that demand will improve with the start of school and subsequent double - festival stocking [6]. - Overall, although the slaughter pressure in August restrains the performance of spot prices, the state's reserve purchases boost market confidence, and the upcoming start of school brings expectations of improved demand. It is expected that the short - term hog futures price will fluctuate slightly stronger within a range. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly, set stop - losses, and take profits opportunistically [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The hog price declined, with the main contract 2511 falling 0.75% on a weekly basis [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is relatively loose in August, but factors such as farms' price - holding intentions, increased second - round fattening, and a widened fat - standard price difference will affect the supply rhythm. Demand is expected to improve due to state reserve purchases, the start of school, and double - festival stocking. Short - term futures prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger within a range [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The futures price declined this week, with the main contract 2511 down 0.75% week - on - week. As of August 22, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1654 lots compared to last week, and the number of futures warrants was 430, unchanged from last week [10][16]. - **Spot Market**: - The basis of the September contract was - 160 yuan/ton, and that of the November contract was - 240 yuan/ton this week [20]. - The national average hog price was 13.82 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from last week but down 2.88% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.72 yuan/kg, down 2.35 yuan from last week and 15.18% from the same period last month [27]. - The national average pork price was 25.16 yuan/kg in the week of August 7, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - As of August 13, the hog - grain ratio was 5.94, down 0.08 from the previous week, remaining below 6:1 [36]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: - In June 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40430000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 10000 heads and a year - on - year increase of 0.12%, reaching 103.7% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in July, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year, while that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly by 0.17% month - on - month but increased 6.67% year - on - year [41]. - In the second quarter, the hog inventory increased year - on - year, and in July, it increased month - on - month according to institutional data. In July, the inventory of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [44]. - In July, the slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight increased. The slaughter volume of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms was 10436200 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.08% but a year - on - year increase of 18.60%. The slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 480600 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% but a year - on - year increase of 57.67%. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary hogs this week was 123.38 kg, an increase of 0.15 kg from last week [49]. - **Industry Profit**: - As of August 22, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding reported a loss of 151.8 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 5.25 yuan/head. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising hogs was 33.95 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 5.1 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.15 yuan/head, with the weekly loss decreasing by 0.11 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.01 yuan/head [54]. - **Domestic Situation**: In July, China's pork imports were 90000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. From January to July, the cumulative pork imports were 630000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [59]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of the week of August 22, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.3 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 21, the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.48 yuan/kg, the same as last week [64]. - **Feed Situation**: - As of August 22, the spot price of soybean meal was 3084.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.57 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price of corn was 2373.53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.59 yuan/ton from the previous week [69]. - As of August 22, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 906.49, a decrease of 2.19% from last week, and the price of finishing hog compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [72]. - As of July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 110.4 tons [77]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [81]. - **Downstream**: - In the 34th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 28.71%, an increase of 0.92 percentage points from last week, and the domestic frozen product storage rate was 17.56%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from last week [84]. - As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 30060000 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 6.53%. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450400000000 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [89]. - **Hog - related Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data analysis is provided [90].
生猪市场周报:生猪价格下跌,关注二育动态-20250516
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 08:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs first rose and then fell, with the main contract dropping 1.90% weekly. In the short - term, both supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, in a slightly loose balance state. The price may continue to be under pressure, but continuous price drops may cause farmers' reluctance to sell, hindering the decline. It is recommended that short positions be appropriately closed at low prices to realize profits, and hold them with a light position while setting stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs first rose and then fell, with the main contract dropping 1.90% weekly [6]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers' slaughter increased slightly, with stable slaughter weight. The risk of second - fattening increased, and the mid - term supply pressure is expected to rise. On the demand side, terminal demand declined, but there may be a short - term increase in demand due to Dragon Boat Festival stocking. Overall, short - term supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, in a slightly loose balance state [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions can be appropriately closed at low prices to realize profits, hold them with a light position, and set stop - losses [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Futures prices first rose and then fell, with the main contract dropping 1.90% weekly [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position decreased, and there were 696 futures warehouse receipts, 9 less than last week [12][16]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: The base difference of the May live pig contract was 570 yuan/ton, and that of the September contract was 1240 yuan/ton [20]. - **Prices of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The national average price of live pigs was 14.83 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from last week and 0.80% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.69 yuan/kg, down 0.21 yuan/kg from last week and 0.51% from last month [27]. - **Prices of Pork and Sows**: The national average price of pork was 25.99 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of April 23, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.68, down 0.03 from the previous week [35]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream Situation - **Sow Inventory**: In March 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.39 million, 270,000 less than last month. In April, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.36% month - on - month, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.61% month - on - month [40]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million. In April, the live pig inventory in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.10% month - on - month, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.91% month - on - month [43]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In April, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms increased by 4.46% month - on - month, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 4.09% month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of live pigs remained unchanged from last week [46]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit - **Live Pig and Poultry Farming Profits**: As of May 16, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was 48.2 yuan/head, down 10.26 yuan/head from last week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 80.66 yuan/head, down 3.67 yuan/head from last week. The poultry farming profit was - 0.16 yuan/head, with a reduced loss of 0.14 yuan/head week - on - week [51]. 3.3.3. Domestic Situation - **Pork Imports**: From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but at a historically low level [56]. 3.3.4. Substitute Situation - **White - striped Chicken Price and Fat - to - Standard Price Difference**: As of the week of May 16, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.5 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of May 8, the national average fat - to - standard price difference of live pigs was 0.03 yuan/kg, the same as last week [60]. 3.3.5. Feed Situation - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of May 16, the spot price of soybean meal was 3115.71 yuan/ton, down 196.58 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2374.9 yuan/ton, up 11.37 yuan/ton from the previous week [65]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of May 16, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 937.19, down 1.36% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.37 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [68]. - **Feed Output**: As of March 2025, the monthly feed output was 27.772 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.428 million tons [72]. 3.3.6. CPI Situation - As of April 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, with the same decline rate as last month [75]. 3.3.7. Downstream Situation - **Slaughtering Enterprises**: In the 20th week, the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate was 28.11%, down 0.43 percentage points from last week. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.28%, up 0.01% from last week [78]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of March 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 30.63 million, up 40.7% from last month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [83]. 3.3.8. Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [84].
生猪:等待矛盾释放
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 02:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - After the May Day holiday, there is still a willingness for secondary fattening to rotate, but the price difference between fat pigs in the north and south is inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. The near - end contradiction is not yet at the release stage. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, the capital disturbance has decreased, and the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the far - month inter - month spread valuation deviating from the norm. It is expected that the liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread will gradually increase at the end of May, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 15,000 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; in Sichuan, it is 14,550 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100; in Guangdong, it is 15,240 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50 [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2507 contract is 13,525 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 30; Pig 2509 is 13,870 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 55; Pig 2511 is 13,580 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 45 [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Pig 2507 is 5,047 lots, a decrease of 247 from the previous day, and the open interest is 29,892 lots, a decrease of 776 from the previous day. For Pig 2509, the trading volume is 18,946 lots, a decrease of 7,585, and the open interest is 71,354 lots, an increase of 35. For Pig 2511, the trading volume is 4,307 lots, an increase of 694, and the open interest is 29,610 lots, an increase of 454 [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Pig 2507 is 1,475 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 30; Pig 2509 is 1,130 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 55; Pig 2511 is 1,420 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 45. The 7 - 9 spread of pigs is - 345 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 85; the 9 - 11 spread is 290 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 10 [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2] for integers, indicating a neutral position [4].
生猪:近端矛盾不显
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 02:02
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, there is still a willingness for second - round fattening, but the price difference between fat pigs in the north and south is inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. The near - term contradiction is not in the release stage. The macro - sentiment has cooled, the capital disturbance has decreased, and the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the far - month inter - month spread valuation deviating from the normal state. It is expected that the liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread will gradually increase at the end of May, and attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 15,000 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50; Sichuan spot price is 14,650 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100; Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 150 [3] - **Futures Prices**: The price of pig 2507 is 13,495 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the price of pig 2509 is 13,925 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the price of pig 2511 is 13,625 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 60 [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of pig 2507 is 5,294 lots, a decrease of 213 from the previous day, and the open interest is 30,668 lots, a decrease of 140 from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2509 is 26,531 lots, an increase of 4,441 from the previous day, and the open interest is 71,319 lots, a decrease of 2,087 from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2511 is 3,613 lots, an increase of 111 from the previous day, and the open interest is 29,156 lots, a decrease of 331 from the previous day [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of pig 2507 is 1,505 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 65; the basis of pig 2509 is 1,075 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 65; the basis of pig 2511 is 1,375 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 110; the 7 - 9 spread of pig is - 430 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; the 9 - 11 spread of pig is 300 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 45 [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [- 2,2] for integers, and the strength classification includes weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]
中辉期货豆粕日报-20250508
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 03:18
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is a bearish consolidation, with multiple factors affecting supply and demand, and caution is needed when chasing short positions [1]. - The decline of rapeseed meal has slowed down in the short - term, but the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed, and attention should be paid to Canadian rapeseed exports and the US Department of Agriculture report [1]. - Palm oil is in a weak operation, lacking bullish drivers, and the center of oscillation is moving downward [8]. - Cotton is expected to have a short - term rebound. Although the supply side is bearish, the market sentiment has improved due to trade negotiations [1]. - Jujube is in a slightly bullish oscillation. The high inventory of old jujubes is a pressure, but the pre - festival stocking has supported the market [1]. - Live pigs are under pressure to operate. The market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and there is a risk of price suppression in the later period [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: The positive impact of China - US trade tariff events has temporarily ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, and attention should be paid to the continuous rainfall in May in the Great Lakes region of the US [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: From May to July, the monthly average import is expected to be over 10 million tons. As of May 2, 2025, the national port soybean inventory and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills have increased, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased. The supply of soybean meal is gradually becoming more relaxed, and the spot and basis have declined [3]. - **Market Performance**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2920 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3350 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The continuous short - selling momentum in the market has weakened, and there is a demand for consolidation or rebound [1][2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 30, the rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills increased, the rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and the new - season rapeseed will be harvested in May, but the import from May to July is expected to decline significantly [7]. - **Market Advantage**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded to over 1000 yuan/ton, and the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal is obvious [7]. - **Market Performance**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2565 yuan/ton, up 0.67% from the previous day. It rebounded slightly yesterday, but the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed [1][4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 2, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions decreased by 3.23% week - on - week and 22.49% year - on - year. India's palm oil imports in April are expected to decline by 24% [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Malaysia's palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in April. In May, the production and sales in Southeast Asia are expected to increase, but the export growth rate is expected to be lower than the production growth rate, and the inventory accumulation cycle has started [8]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil continued its short - term decline and closed slightly lower, but there is a demand for short - term consolidation near the previous low [1]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and some cotton farmers are considering expanding planting. Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 0.4% [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's cotton intended planting area in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year, and the production is conservatively estimated to be around 7 million tons. The cotton planting in Xinjiang is mostly completed, and the demand is in the off - season [10]. - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (CF2509) closed at 12900 yuan/ton, up 0.90%. The market sentiment has improved due to trade negotiations, and a short - term rebound is expected [1][10]. Jujube - **Production Area Situation**: In some southern Xinjiang jujube - producing areas, the jujube trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.15% week - on - week but is still higher than the same period [13]. - **Market Performance**: The main contract of jujube (CJ2509) closed at 9050 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is emerging, supporting the short - term market [1][13]. Live Pigs - **Industry Data**: The national sample enterprise pig inventory increased by 0.36% month - on - month, the slaughter volume increased by 16.82%, and the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.66% [14]. - **Market Situation**: The main contract of live pigs (Lh2509) closed at 13985 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The market fundamentals have not improved significantly, the secondary fattening enthusiasm has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline [1][16].
生猪:博弈阶段,关注利润驱动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-03-25 01:40
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current pig market is in a game - stage. Short - term market has a large pressure to digest inventory due to factors such as the weakening of fat pig demand, increased feed consumption, and the reverse spread of 300 - jin pigs and standard pigs. It is recommended to mainly short at high prices with attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2505 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 14,570 yuan/ton (YoY - 50), Sichuan spot price is 14,650 yuan/ton (YoY 0), and Guangdong spot price is 15,600 yuan/ton (YoY 80) [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of LH2505, LH2507, and LH2509 are 13,475 yuan/ton (YoY 120), 13,525 yuan/ton (YoY 130), and 14,040 yuan/ton (YoY 40) respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of LH2505, LH2507, and LH2509 is 41,381 hands (- 24,105 compared to the previous day), 7,919 hands (- 1,951), and 4,792 hands (- 4,359) respectively; the open interest is 72,448 hands (- 4,565 compared to the previous day), 32,474 hands (+ 886), and 35,850 hands (+ 365) respectively [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of LH2505, LH2507, and LH2509 is 1,095 yuan/ton (YoY - 170), 1,045 yuan/ton (YoY - 180), and 530 yuan/ton (YoY - 90) respectively; the spread between LH2505 - LH2507 is - 50 yuan/ton (YoY - 10), and the spread between LH2507 - LH2509 is - 515 yuan/ton (YoY 90) [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [- 2, 2]. - 2 represents the most bearish, and 2 represents the most bullish [3]. 3.3 Market Logic - From the spot perspective, the second - fattening pigs entering the market in February aimed to obtain fat - standard profit, leading to large - scale procurement in both the north and the south and group companies' passive pig - holding. However, as fat pig demand weakens, feed consumption increased significantly from January to February, and inventory accumulation is confirmed. The spread between 300 - jin pigs and standard pigs has reversed, and second - fattening pigs start to be sold. The short - term market faces great pressure to digest inventory. Also, the actual delivery cost of the March contract is high, the theoretical discount of the May contract increases, and the delivery, position - limit, and spot logic resonate. It is advisable to short at high prices and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [4].
农林牧渔行业周报:近期东北等地区二育陆续进场,持续关注二育对价格的托底支撑
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-03-16 10:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the pig farming sector shows value for low-positioning, with a recovery in profitability expected alongside consumer demand recovery. The current valuation of the pig farming sector is at a relatively low level, indicating potential for investment [6][25] - The report emphasizes the ongoing support for pig prices from the entry of supplementary breeding in Northeast China, which is expected to stabilize prices in the short term [4][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Recent supplementary breeding has entered Northeast China, which may support pig prices. As of March 14, the national average price for live pigs was 14.57 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.83% [4][11] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 142,500 pigs, down 90 pigs from the previous week, indicating weak demand [4][11] Weekly Perspective - The pig farming sector's low-positioning value is becoming apparent, with a recovery in profitability expected as consumer demand rebounds. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [6][25] - The pet food market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.64% from 2025 to 2028, driven by rising consumer spending and domestic brands gaining market share [6][25] Market Performance (March 10-14) - The agriculture index outperformed the market by 1.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.39% and the agriculture index rising by 2.84% [31][33] - Key stocks that led the gains included Xue Rong Biological, Western Animal Husbandry, and Zhong Ji Health, with increases of 43.95%, 18.29%, and 13.13% respectively [31][35] Price Tracking (March 10-14) - The average price of live pigs was 14.65 yuan/kg, up 1.03% from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 33.87 yuan/kg, up 3.39% from the previous week [41][43] - The average price of white feather chickens was 7.11 yuan/kg, up 7.89% from the previous week, while the average price of yellow feather chickens was 10.45 yuan/kg, reflecting a price increase [40][46][47] Key News (March 10-14) - The USDA's March report adjusted global corn and wheat production upwards while lowering rice production forecasts. Corn production was increased by 1.7 million tons to 1.214 billion tons, and wheat production was increased by 3.44 million tons to 797 million tons [36]