Core Viewpoint - Current gold prices are in a high-level consolidation phase with increased volatility, but GTC ZEHUI Capital believes this does not signify the end of the trend. The probability of gold prices reaching $5,000 per ounce in the next six to nine months has significantly increased to nearly 40% [1] Macro Factors - The phenomenon of gold rising in tandem with the S&P 500 strengthens its safe-haven attribute. As the S&P 500 approaches the 7,000-point mark and gold prices hit historical highs, this correlation indicates that the market is pricing in potential "systemic changes." The focus has shifted from traditional interest rate narratives to the prevention of extreme tail risks, highlighting gold's role as a portfolio "ballast" amid ongoing volatility in stock-bond correlations and increasing policy uncertainty [1] Structural Factors - By 2025, global government and corporate debt levels are expected to reach historical highs, providing solid structural support for gold prices. Although the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a market focal point, GTC ZEHUI Capital believes the influence of interest rates on gold prices is diminishing. Current inflation is stabilizing but unlikely to return to the ideal target of 2% in the short term, a historical environment that typically favors precious metals [2] - Physical demand and investment cash flows are creating a solid price floor for the market. Central banks' gold purchasing behavior has shown a clear "price insensitivity" characteristic, which will support gold prices above $4,000 in the long term. Additionally, the counter-cyclical inflow into gold ETFs by the end of 2025 indicates significant growth potential for 2026. GTC ZEHUI Capital believes that the global allocation of gold has not yet reached saturation, and within the $4,000 to $5,000 range, gold still holds high investment value. Each phase of correction presents a good opportunity for investors to re-enter the market [2]