Core Insights - The global shipbuilding industry is entering a multi-phase upcycle expected to last until 2032, driven by decarbonization requirements, fleet renewal, and global trade growth [1][2] - Chinese shipyards are projected to dominate global market share due to capacity expansion and cost advantages [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - From 2025 to 2032, global new ship orders are expected to reach 441 million compensated gross tons (CGT), valued at $1.2 trillion [2] - Decarbonization regulations will contribute 26% of the demand, fleet replacement will account for 48%, and trade growth will also contribute 26% [2] - The aging fleet will necessitate significant replacements, particularly for vessels delivered between 2009 and 2012, which will exceed 20 years of age by 2029 [2] Group 2: Price and Capacity Trends - New ship prices are expected to remain high from 2025 to 2028, despite a potential 12% decline from 2024 peak levels, due to disciplined capacity and strong structural demand for new orders [3] - Global shipyard capacity expansion is primarily driven by Chinese shipyards, while South Korean and Japanese shipyards are maintaining conservative levels [3] - The delivery volume is projected to increase from 41 million CGT in 2024 to 52 million CGT in 2027, representing a 27% growth [3] Group 3: Opportunities and Challenges for Chinese Shipyards - The impact of increased port service fees for Chinese-built vessels in the U.S. is considered limited, as only 4% of the international fleet at U.S. ports is built or operated by China [4] - U.S. import and export trade accounts for only 12% of global maritime trade, providing shipowners with flexibility to redeploy Chinese-built vessels [4] - Chinese shipyards are experiencing a temporary decline in market share due to extreme capacity constraints, with a backlog covering 3.7 years compared to 3 years for South Korea and Japan [5] - However, as Chinese shipyards expand capacity and deliver existing orders, their price advantages are expected to become more attractive, helping to regain market share [5] - Recent data indicates that in June and July 2025, the market share of new orders for Chinese shipyards rebounded to 69%, significantly higher than the 49% in the previous five months [5]

Core Insights - The global shipbuilding industry is entering a multi-year upgrade cycle, with Chinese shipyards playing a central role, driven by environmental regulations, aging fleets, and trade growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that from 2025 to 2032, global new ship orders will reach 441 million compensated gross tons (CGT), valued at $1.2 trillion [2]. - The demand breakdown includes 26% from decarbonization regulations, 48% from fleet replacement needs, and 26% from trade growth [2][5]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion - New ship prices are expected to remain high from 2025 to 2028, despite a potential 12% decline from 2024 peak levels, due to disciplined capacity and strong structural demand for new orders [3]. - The majority of global capacity expansion will come from Chinese shipyards, while South Korean and Japanese shipyards will maintain a more conservative approach [3]. Group 3: Opportunities and Challenges for Chinese Shipyards - The report indicates that the impact of increased port service fees for Chinese-built ships in the U.S. will be limited, as only 4% of the international fleet calling at U.S. ports is built or operated by China [4]. - The flexibility of shipowners to redeploy Chinese-built vessels to other routes mitigates potential negative impacts [4]. Group 4: Demand Drivers - Stricter decarbonization regulations are a key variable driving new orders, with traditional fuel vessels expected to incur higher operational costs than those using alternative fuels by 2035 [5]. - The largest source of demand in this cycle will be fleet renewal, as many vessels delivered during the last peak (2009-2012) will reach 20 years of age by 2029 [5]. Group 5: Market Share Dynamics - Chinese shipyards are experiencing a temporary decline in market share due to extreme capacity constraints, with a backlog covering 3.7 years compared to 3 years for South Korea and Japan [6]. - However, as Chinese shipyards expand capacity and deliver existing orders, their price advantages are expected to help regain market share, with new order market share rising to 69% in June and July 2025 [6].