配置力量与业绩改善双轮驱动
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国泰海通:非银市场持续升温 继续看好配置力量+业绩改善双轮驱动带来的投资机会
智通财经网· 2025-10-16 12:49
Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities indicates that the performance of listed securities firms is expected to maintain rapid growth in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 58.63% [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - It is anticipated that the adjusted operating revenue of 42 listed securities firms will increase by 32.02% year-on-year to 395.48 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 165.15 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 58.63% [2]. - For Q3 2025 alone, the adjusted operating revenue is projected to be 148.15 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.45% and a year-on-year increase of 27.15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 61.13 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.94% and a year-on-year increase of 48.74% [2]. Group 2: Business Contributions - The growth in overall performance is driven by improved market conditions and trading activity, with brokerage business contributing the most to revenue growth at 48.32%, primarily due to a significant year-on-year increase in market trading volume [2]. - Investment business is expected to contribute 38.14% to the adjusted operating revenue growth, as the equity market shows marginal improvements compared to the high base in Q3 2024 [2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The investment banking sector is benefiting from a marginal recovery in IPO activities, with investment banking revenue increasing by 21.84% year-on-year to 24.82 billion yuan, driven by financing recovery in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3]. - Asset management revenue, however, has decreased by 0.81% year-on-year to 32.2 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in management fees [3]. - The net interest income has surged by 92.86% year-on-year to 4.23 billion yuan, attributed to the growth in margin financing business [3]. - The new assessment method implemented by the Ministry of Finance is expected to encourage insurance companies to increase their equity positions, benefiting undervalued blue-chip stocks with high ROE [3].