Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Neutral" [4][7][11] Core Views - The tavern industry is experiencing intensified competition, and the recovery for the company will take time [2][10] - The company is transitioning from a direct sales model to a franchise model, facing challenges during this shift [10] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 752 million yuan, a decrease of 37.76% year-on-year, with a net loss attributed to the transition [10][11] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 0.05, 0.06, and 0.09 yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, down from a previous estimate of 0.21 yuan for 2025 due to rapid closure of direct stores and increased franchise contributions [4][11] - The reasonable valuation level for the company is estimated at a 29 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 1.51 HKD [4][11] Financial Information - The company's revenue is expected to decline from 1,209 million yuan in 2023 to 575 million yuan in 2025, with a projected growth of 8.3% in 2026 and 12.8% in 2027 [6][10] - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 70.2% in 2023 to 45.8% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to recover to 15.5% by 2027 [6][10] - The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 60 million yuan in 2025, recovering from a loss of 78 million yuan in 2024 [6][10]