Industry Overview - The tavern industry has not yet recovered, with competition significantly higher than in 2019. The chain development process is slow. The "Tavern Development Report 2025" indicates that the national tavern market size is projected to reach 112 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but still below the 2019 level. It is expected to grow to 117.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1] - As of March 2025, the number of tavern enterprises in the country exceeds 38,000, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and a 139.6% increase compared to 2019, indicating intensified competition amid weak demand [1] - The chain rate of taverns remains low, with most brands having five or fewer stores, accounting for 57.9%, while brands with over 100 stores only account for 5.1% [1] Company Performance - Helen's direct sales have rapidly declined, and the transition to a franchise model is still ongoing. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 752 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.76%, and reported a net loss of 77.976 million yuan, reversing from a net profit of 180 million yuan last year. The adjusted net profit was 101 million yuan, down 65.5% year-on-year [2] - The decline in performance is attributed to the platform transformation leading to a drop in direct sales revenue. Since 2023, the company has significantly closed direct stores, with 511 stores shut down by March 19, 2025. The "Hi Beer Partner" franchise model has expanded to 424 stores, with a total of 499 signed agreements, while the number of licensed cooperative stores decreased from 92 to 42, with over 70% of the total 579 stores being franchise stores [2] - The company is in a transitional phase from direct sales to a franchise model, with its profit model still being refined. The rapid reduction of direct stores and the immature franchise system raise concerns about its cyclical resilience. The efficiency of store operations and product structure are still being adjusted, and the ability to enhance single-store repurchase rates and efficiency through multi-scenario combinations and mechanism optimization will be key to long-term performance [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company forecasts earnings per share for 2025-2027 to be 0.05, 0.06, and 0.09 yuan respectively, down from the previous forecast of 0.21 yuan for 2025, mainly due to the rapid closure of direct stores and the increase in franchise proportion, leading to a decline in overall single-store profit contribution [2] - Based on comparable companies, the reasonable valuation level for the company is set at a 29 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 1.51 HKD (with 1 HKD = 0.9138 RMB), and the rating has been adjusted to "neutral" [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Neutral" [4][7][11] Core Views - The tavern industry is experiencing intensified competition, and the recovery for the company will take time [2][10] - The company is transitioning from a direct sales model to a franchise model, facing challenges during this shift [10] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 752 million yuan, a decrease of 37.76% year-on-year, with a net loss attributed to the transition [10][11] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 0.05, 0.06, and 0.09 yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, down from a previous estimate of 0.21 yuan for 2025 due to rapid closure of direct stores and increased franchise contributions [4][11] - The reasonable valuation level for the company is estimated at a 29 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 1.51 HKD [4][11] Financial Information - The company's revenue is expected to decline from 1,209 million yuan in 2023 to 575 million yuan in 2025, with a projected growth of 8.3% in 2026 and 12.8% in 2027 [6][10] - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 70.2% in 2023 to 45.8% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to recover to 15.5% by 2027 [6][10] - The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 60 million yuan in 2025, recovering from a loss of 78 million yuan in 2024 [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - The decline of Helen's, once a promising player in the low-cost bar market, highlights the challenges of maintaining a viable business model in a rapidly changing consumer landscape, contrasting sharply with the success of competitors like Mixue Ice Cream. Company Performance - Helen's market value plummeted from 30.2 billion HKD in 2021 to 1.8 billion HKD, a decline of over 94% [2] - In 2024, Helen's revenue dropped by 37.8% to 75.2 million HKD, with a net loss of 7.8 million HKD [4] - The number of Helen's stores decreased from a peak of 782 to 579 [4] Business Strategy - Helen's initially thrived on a low-cost model targeting young consumers, but faced a "scale trap" leading to significant losses [4] - The company closed over 500 stores in two years as part of a survival strategy, which temporarily resulted in a profit of 18 million HKD in 2023 [4] - In contrast, Mixue Ice Cream reported a revenue growth of 22.29% to 24.83 billion HKD in 2024, with a net profit increase of 41.41% to 4.44 billion HKD [8] Market Positioning - Helen's struggles stem from a mismatch between its low-price positioning and the emotional value sought in social spaces by consumers [5] - Only 34% of Helen's customers are willing to bring friends or partners, compared to 68% for competitors like Hu Tao Li [5] - The rise of alternative social venues, such as camping bars and home drinking experiences, has further diluted Helen's customer base [8] Operational Challenges - Helen's faces a heavy cost structure, with initial investments for franchise stores exceeding 600,000 CNY, compared to Mixue's 210,000 CNY [6] - Labor costs for Helen's surged by 72.5% to 1 billion CNY in 2022, adding to operational burdens [6] - The business model relies heavily on evening traffic, requiring high customer volume and turnover to be profitable [6] Competitive Landscape - The high-end market is dominated by craft beer and whiskey bars, while the low-end market is being encroached upon by convenience stores and e-commerce [6] - Mixue's success is attributed to its strategic focus on lower-tier cities and a product-driven approach that emphasizes high turnover and customer engagement [9] Future Directions - Helen's is attempting a difficult transition to a franchise model, with the "Hi Beer Partner" initiative launched in 2023, but faces challenges with declining sales in franchise stores [10] - The company has adjusted its franchise policies, which has raised concerns among franchisees regarding profitability [10] - The emergence of new social consumption spaces poses a significant threat to traditional bar models like Helen's, as consumer preferences evolve [11]

Core Insights - The rise of the "New Consumption F4" (Pop Mart, Nayuki, Perfect Diary, Helen's) is driven by a combination of generational shifts, capital narratives, and consumption transformations, rather than just performance metrics [1] Group 1: Generational Consumption Revolution - The essence of the "F4" rise is the takeover of consumption power by Generation Z, focusing on emotional needs rather than just product functionality [2] - Pop Mart has turned blind boxes into "spiritual lottery," appealing to the loneliness economy with annual sales of millions [2] - Nayuki's tea shops have become new social hubs for urban youth, replacing Starbucks in some areas [2] - Over 60% of revenue from these brands comes from users under 30, with private domain repurchase rates exceeding the industry average by 20% [2] Group 2: Traffic Creation Movement - The "F4" brands have shifted from traditional advertising to a self-circulating system of content, traffic, and conversion [3] - Perfect Diary utilized social media strategies to achieve over 100 million GMV in just two years [3] - Nayuki's viral marketing through popular IPs has led to significant foot traffic in stores [3] - The traffic creation efficiency of "F4" is 3-5 times that of traditional brands, with customer lifetime value (LTV) 40% higher than the industry average [3] Group 3: Capital Narrative Reconstruction - The capital market's valuation logic has shifted from profit worship to GMV mythology, with a focus on sales revenue rather than profits [4] - Nayuki was valued at 20 billion despite a 200 million loss at IPO, highlighting the market's focus on expansion potential [4] - Perfect Diary's parent company is valued at 10 billion based on its 130 million member data, indicating future monetization potential [4] - The average oversubscription for "F4" IPOs is over four times, with institutional investors making up 70% of the funding [4] Group 4: Underlying Challenges and Reflections - The "F4" faces significant challenges, including rising marketing costs and supply chain vulnerabilities [5] - Perfect Diary's marketing expenses have exceeded 60% for five consecutive years, leading to a revenue without profit dilemma [5] - Nayuki's profit margins have been pressured by fluctuating raw material costs [5] - The aging of Pop Mart's IPs has resulted in increased inventory turnover days, indicating consumer fatigue [5] Group 5: Transition from "Internet Celebrity" to Sustainable Growth - The success of the "F4" reflects a phase in China's consumption upgrade, emphasizing the importance of understanding the emotional needs of younger consumers [6] - The challenge remains for these brands to evolve from "hit-making machines" to "value-driven brands" [6] - Building a robust product capability, supply chain, and user engagement is essential to avoid becoming a casualty of capital market fluctuations [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the challenges faced by middle-class entrepreneurs in the restaurant industry, particularly in coffee shops, tea houses, and bars, which have become less profitable in recent years [3][30]. - A report indicates that nearly 40% of the new middle class in China is seeking career transitions, with a significant increase in entrepreneurship, particularly in the restaurant sector [1][29]. - The restaurant entrepreneurship market is characterized by high fixed costs and low net profits, making cash flow critical for survival [18][31]. Group 2 - Middle-class entrepreneurs often enter the restaurant business not out of necessity but for personal interests or lifestyle aspirations, leading to a disconnect between their expectations and the harsh realities of the market [7][12]. - Many entrepreneurs, like Xiao Yu and An Qi, underestimated the difficulties of running a restaurant, resulting in failures due to a lack of market understanding and overconfidence [10][19]. - The economic downturn has led to a shift towards rational consumption, negatively impacting the restaurant sector, especially those focused on luxury experiences [22][30]. Group 3 - The restaurant industry faces severe competition and market saturation, with many similar establishments diluting customer interest and loyalty [24][28]. - The rise of chain brands has intensified competition, making it difficult for independent shops to survive due to their lack of brand recognition and marketing resources [26][28]. - Despite the challenges, the enthusiasm for restaurant entrepreneurship remains high, driven by ongoing employment issues and workplace pressures [29][30]. Group 4 - The complexity of the restaurant business requires a deep understanding of various operational aspects, from supply chain management to customer service, which many entrepreneurs fail to grasp [31][32]. - The current market environment is particularly harsh for individual entrepreneurs, necessitating a long-term commitment and continuous skill enhancement to succeed [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - Helen's performance in 2024 is disappointing, with a significant revenue decline of nearly 40% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive year of revenue drop, and the company has shifted from profit to loss [1][2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company reported a revenue of 752 million yuan in 2024, down 37.8% from 1.209 billion yuan in 2023, with a loss of approximately 78 million yuan compared to a profit of 180 million yuan in the previous year [2][3] - Adjusted net profit decreased by 65.29% to 101 million yuan [2] Store Closure and Transformation Strategy - Since 2023, the company has closed over 500 direct-operated stores while launching a franchise model, opening over 400 "Hi Beer Partner" franchise stores [1][2] - As of March 19, 2025, the number of direct-operated stores decreased from 255 to 113, while franchise stores increased to 424 [2][3] Sales Performance - Franchise business revenue grew by 85.7% to 195 million yuan in 2024, but average daily sales per store declined significantly [3] - Average daily sales for direct-operated and franchise stores fell from 7,300 yuan in 2023 to 7,000 yuan in 2024, and for "Hi Beer Partner" stores, it dropped from 7,100 yuan to 5,000 yuan, a nearly 30% decline [3] Same-Store Sales Decline - Same-store sales decreased by 21.3% from 670 million yuan in 2023 to 528 million yuan in 2024, with average daily sales per store dropping from approximately 1.2 million yuan to 950,000 yuan [4] - The company attributes this decline to the complex and changing domestic economic market [4] Market Position and Consumer Trends - Helen's low-price strategy has not translated into improved same-store sales, raising questions about the sustainability of its business model [7][8] - The company faces increasing competition from alternative social venues, which may affect its appeal as a low-cost social space [8] Operational Challenges - The shift to a franchise model has reduced operational costs but has not proven to be a sustainable solution for profitability [7] - The company is exploring various measures to enhance store performance, including optimizing operations and improving customer experience [4][6]

文 | 酒业内参 徐苑蕾 作为"中国小酒馆第一股"，海伦司曾凭借" 10 元小酒馆"的定位在年轻消费群体迅速扩 张，但 2024 年却深陷直营业务腰斩、同店销售额下滑超 20% 、利润由盈转亏等困境。 海伦司在战略转型中面临着巨大的阵痛与挑战。消费疲软、加盟店销售额遇冷、下沉市场培 育期漫长，成为拖累业绩的"三座大山"。 更令人担忧的是，海伦司在港股的市值已较上市高点蒸发逾 90% ，并在今年陆续被踢出恒 生综合指数及港股通名单，流动性危机隐现。 由盈转亏，直营业务腰斩 加盟店日均仅卖 5000 元 海伦司创立于 2009 年。公司创始人徐炳忠敏锐地捕捉到中国大学生和初入职场年轻人的 社交需求，将小酒馆开在大学城周边，以" 10 元小酒馆"的平价策略迅速打开市场。这种精 准定位使海伦司在短短数年间实现了快速扩张，成为中国最大的连锁小酒馆品牌。 从核心财务指标来看， 2024 年对海伦司而言无疑是艰难的一年。报告期内，海伦司总收 入从 2023 年的 12.09 亿元大幅下滑 37.8% 至 7.52 亿元。 分业务来看，直营业务的大幅收缩是收入下滑的主因。 2024 年，海伦司继续优化调整直 营酒馆网络，导致 ...

Core Viewpoint - Helen's performance in 2024 showed a decline in revenue due to a weak consumer market, but the company successfully expanded its franchise business and maintained profitability through strategic adjustments [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of RMB 752 million in 2024, a decrease from RMB 1,209 million in 2023, primarily due to a decline in direct sales revenue as a result of market conditions [2]. - Despite the revenue drop, adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 100.6 million, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency [3]. Business Strategy - Helen's franchise business, "Hi Beer Partner," saw significant growth, with revenue increasing by 85.7% from RMB 105 million in 2023 to RMB 195 million in 2024 [3]. - The company is focusing on platform-based development and expanding its bar network, increasing the total number of stores from 479 at the end of 2023 to 560 by the end of 2024 [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for the store level remained stable at 69%, with the proprietary beverage gross profit margin increasing from 75.7% in 2023 to 76.6% in 2024 [3]. - The proportion of high-margin beverage alcohol in proprietary beverage revenue rose from 79.8% in 2023 to 82.4% in 2024, reflecting consumer preference for new product offerings [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its bar network through the "Hi Beer Partner" program and enhance supply chain management and environmental design capabilities [3].

Core Viewpoint - Helen's Group (海伦司) anticipates a significant decline in revenue and a net loss for the fiscal year 2024, primarily due to a weak consumer market and adjustments in its business strategy [1][2]. Revenue Summary - The company expects its revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, to be between approximately RMB 730 million and RMB 780 million, compared to approximately RMB 1.21 billion in 2023, indicating a substantial decrease [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a sluggish consumer market and the strategic shift towards platform transformation, which has led to a decrease in direct business income while franchise business income has increased [1]. Profit Summary - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be between approximately RMB 100 million and RMB 120 million, down from approximately RMB 291 million in 2023 [1]. - The company anticipates a net loss attributable to shareholders for 2024 in the range of approximately RMB 60 million to RMB 90 million, compared to a profit of approximately RMB 180.5 million in 2023 [2]. Asset Impairment and Losses - The expected net loss is primarily due to a decline in the fair value of office properties, resulting in an asset impairment loss estimated between RMB 50 million and RMB 70 million [2]. - Additional losses are anticipated from the optimization and adjustment of the tavern network, as well as operational performance declines, totaling between RMB 80 million and RMB 120 million [2]. - The company will incur listing expenses of approximately RMB 13.3 million related to its secondary listing in Singapore [2]. Financial Reporting Clarification - The board emphasizes that the term "adjusted net profit/(loss)" is not defined under Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards and is calculated by adding back asset impairment losses and other non-operational expenses [3]. - Management believes that presenting this non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards measure alongside the corresponding Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards measure provides useful information for investors and management [3].